Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss Prediction & Betting Picks (December 23, 2025)
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be favored to stay undefeated against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles when the two face off in the 2025 New Orleans Bowl on Tuesday night.
The Hilltoppers won’t be favored by much, of course, as they come in as mild 1.5-point favorites in a game with a gaudy 59.5 total. That should make for plenty of theatrics, a lot of points, and potentially an exciting back-and-forth game going down to the wire.
A game with this type of spread and game total can be hard to gauge, but I’ll break down the key matchups and analyze the latest odds to deliver the best bets worth targeting. Along the way, I’ll highlight matchup history and team strengths en route to a Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 23rd, with kickoff at 4:30 pm (5:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Team Record
- Western Kentucky is 8-4, 6-2 in Conference USA.
- Southern Miss is 7-5, 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Western Kentucky | -1.5 (-105) | -112 | Over 58.5 (-115) |
Southern Miss | +1.5 (-115) | -108 | Under 58.5 (-105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
These teams have not faced each other much, with just four games in the all-time series. It’s been all Western Kentucky in the matchup, however, with the Hilltoppers coming away with the win in all four showdowns.
The two sides haven’t faced off recently, with a 2020 tilt being the last contest. The Hilltoppers won a tight defensive battle in that clash, 10-7.
This won’t be a home game for either side, as the New Orleans Bowl will be played in the Superdome.
Why This Game Matters
Both teams have winning records and navigated solid conferences, but have a chance to finish the year on top with a trophy. This is a bowl game, so everyone on hand will get up for this showdown and want to get the win.
Both teams are taking that seriously, as almost every meaningful player is expected to play. The big absence is Southern Miss head coach Charles Huff, who bolted for Memphis following a strong first season at the helm.
Team Profiles
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers had a strong season in Conference USA, going 6-2 inside conference play and 8-4 overall. They haven’t been able to get wins in their last two contests, but those losses came by a combined six points.
Western Kentucky’s other two losses were much more lopsided, but losses to Florida International and Toledo are far from embarrassing. Elsewhere, this team was putting up points with regularity, scoring over 27 points per game and finding ways to win far more often than they lost.
Western Kentucky has an odd situation brewing with both of their top two quarterbacks healthy and available for this game, but with no clear starter announced yet.
While bettors eagerly await that news, let’s look at what the Hilltoppers did well in 2025:
- Pass Attack: We don’t know who will be throwing passes yet, but no matter who it’s been, the Hilltoppers can air it out. This offense passes 55% of the time and is highly accurate (29th) and racks up over 261 passing yards per game (28th).
- Bend, Don’t Break: Western Kentucky does not have an elite defense, but they do a decent job when opposing offenses pass the 20. Their red-zone defense only allows a score 80% of the time, keeping them inside the top-40 in the country.
- Keep it Rollin’: This is a sound offensive team and one that knows how to keep drives going. Western Kentucky converts on third down at a 45% clip, good for 23rd in the nation.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles made quite the jump over the past year, going from a disastrous 1-11 season to making a bowl game. That helped earn their head coach a better job, but everyone else is still on hand to try to end the year with a big win.
Southern Miss also doesn’t have the quarterback dilemma Western Kentucky is faced with, while they’ll have all of their other key pieces. That’s not nothing, especially since the Golden Eagles really enjoyed a strong season, finishing second in the SBC West behind a good Troy team.
Of course, the departure of their head coach is a big deal, while this team has been on a rough slide with losses in each of their last three games. Still, they have a bowl game ahead of them, so let’s keep things positive and focus on where they succeeded in 2025:
- Air Assault: Much like the Hilltoppers, Southern Miss likes to pass, and they’re very good at it. Braylon Braxton leads an explosive passing attack that is 33rd in yards per pass, 34th in completion rate, and 22nd in passing yards per game.
- Max Protect: Despite their success through the air, the Golden Eagles don’t give up a lot of sacks. Their pass protection has been phenomenal, giving up a paltry 4.3% sack rate, which is the 28th lowest in all of college football.
- Aggressive D: Southern Miss isn’t known for an elite defense, but it’s certainly an opportunistic one. This unit averages 2.2 forced turnovers per game, ranking 4th in the nation.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss matchups:
- Southern Miss passing game vs. Western Kentucky’s pass defense: The Hilltoppers put up no real pressure via their pass rush, but they do limit big plays. If they can keep the ball in front of them, perhaps they can somewhat limit the Golden Eagles.
- Southern Miss running game vs. Western Kentucky’s run defense: The Golden Eagles aren’t known for their ground game, but they’re still a balanced offense, and they have a good matchup in front of them. Western Kentucky doesn’t stop the run very well, allowing 5.1 yards per carry (122nd).
- Western Kentucky’s passing game vs. Southern Miss’ pass defense: The Hilltoppers can fill it up through the air, but they do make mistakes. This offense has a 2.64% interception rate and turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. That could be bad news against a Southern Miss defense that forces a lot of turnovers and ranks 2nd in picks per game.
Betting Insights & Trends
Western Kentucky (9-3) has been fantastic against the spread this season, while they are 6-2 ATS when favored.
Southern Miss has gone just 5-6-1 against the spread in 2025, while they are just 1-2 ATS as the underdog.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss picks:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 58.5 (-115) | This game features balanced offenses that know how to score, but don’t defend well. Brace for a shootout with plenty of points. | 8/10 |
Southern Miss ML (-108) | They’re playing without their head coach, but they have arguably the best player in this game. I like their aggressive defense and passing game to get the job done. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Jeffrey Pittman Anytime TD (-175) | Ideally, there are some props for the passing games, but Pittman has 8 rushing scores and looks like a really good bet to score in a game with such a high total. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 58.5 (-115)
- Secondary Pick: Southern Miss ML (-108)
This game total is high, but both teams average over 27 points per game and allow at least 25 per game. Both teams pass the ball very well, too, so we’re looking at a fairly fast-paced game with serious scoring upside.
This game is priced as and feels like a borderline toss-up. Normally, I wouldn’t favor the team losing their head coach, but the Golden Eagles get the slight edge for me, and I think their top RB can punch in a score.
Odds for Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss are on the move — track line changes, compare spreads and totals, and grab the best betting value at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football bets don’t always go as planned. Here’s why my Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss picks could fail:
- High Total: The game total is high and suggests a lot of scoring, but maybe it’s simply too high. Southern Miss has missed the mark on offense in recent weeks, too.
- Big Loss: Perhaps the departure of the Golden Eagles’ head coach will be felt more than I am assuming. Head coaches can set the tone and make important decisions, so losing a good one could hurt Southern Miss significantly.
- Pass First: Southern Miss is most successful when airing it out. Pittman gets scoring opportunities, but what if they simply torch Western Kentucky and score all of their touchdowns through the air?
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Southern Miss 37, Western Kentucky 34
My main Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss prediction is that this game is going to harbor all of the points. These teams like to throw the ball and are quite good at it, while they also have balanced attacks that know how to put points on the scoreboard.
Additionally, neither defense is very good. Southern Miss has a slight edge due to how aggressive their defense can be at forcing turnovers, but neither defense can slow down the run, and they’re not that great against the pass, either.
I’m not ignoring the loss of their head coach, but the Golden Eagles have slightly better defensive bite, and I also trust Braylon Braxton and their passing game more than I trust Western Kentucky’s revolving door situation right now.
