Troy vs. Jacksonville State Prediction & Betting Picks (December 16, 2025)
The Troy Trojans will be -112 favorites to take down the Jacksonville State GameCocks on Tuesday night, when the two square off in the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl.
This battle of two Alabama based schools projects to be tight, as Troy will attempt to make the Sun Belt Conference look good, and Jacksonville State will represent Conference USA.
These teams share identical 8-5 records and will be looking to put the finishing touches on solid 2025 campaigns. Both lost in their last conference game, but have one last shot at redemption to close out the year.
So, which side will prevail? I inspect the latest odds and break down the key matchups as I get to my preferred picks and ultimate Troy vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Troy Trojans (8-5) vs. Jacksonville State GameCocks (8-5)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, December 16th, with kickoff at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, AL
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Team Record
- Troy is 8-5, 6-3 in the Sun Belt Conference.
- Jacksonville State is 8-5, 7-2 in Conference USA.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Troy vs. Jacksonville State odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Troy | -1.5 (-102) | -112 | Over 49.5 (-108) |
Jacksonville State | +1.5 (-120) | -104 | Under 49.5 (-112) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
These two teams have faced off quite a bit, battling 63 times in the past. Jacksonville State holds the minor edge in the series, going 32-29-2 against the Trojans.
The series has been all Troy lately, as they have won seven straight against the GameCocks. The Trojans won the most recent meeting 21-3, while none of the last five games have been remotely close.
Both of these teams play in Alabama, but neither play at the Cramton Bowl regularly. This will technically be a neutral site showdown, with neither side having a distinct home field edge.
Why This Game Matters
This is the final game of the year for both of these teams, and it’s the IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl. Everyone wants to finish their season off with a win, and it’s even more so the case when it’s for a bowl game victory.
On top of all of that, these teams know each other fairly well, so there’s a rivalry aspect baked into this inter-Alabama clash.
Team Profiles
Troy Trojans
The Trojans got off to a nice 1-0 start this year before falling to quality Clemson and Memphis teams. They rebounded from those understandable losses to win their next five games, before losing to Arkansas State and getting blown out (33-0) by Old Dominion.
Troy could have packed it up there, but they bounced back again by taking out Georgia State and Southern Miss before getting tripped up by a good James Madison team in the 2025 Sun Belt Conference championship game.
While Troy couldn’t win their conference title, they still have a chance to show Alabama who’s boss (kind of) by taking out inner state rival, Jacksonville State. They’re favored to do just that, so let’s take a quick look to see where they stand out the most.
- Bend, Don’t Break: The greatest strength for Troy has been a defense that does not cave in the red zone. They only rank 56th in defensive scoring, but if they can keep the ball in front of them they can hang with anyone. That unit allows just a 76% RZ scoring rate, which is the 16th best in all of college football.
- Air Attack: This is not a very explosive offensive team, but their best way to beat you is through the air. Quarterback Goose Crowder has dealt with injuries, but has looked sharp lately and has played a key role in the 70th-best passing attack in the country.
- Non-Stop Rush: Again, the Trojans don’t typically silence their opponents, but they can certainly mess with them a bit. They can generate plenty of pressure, as they own a 7.3% sack rate, which ranks 30th in the nation.
Jacksonville State GameCocks
The GameCocks are in a similar spot as Troy – very similar. They have the same 8-5 record and are coming off a 19-15 loss to Kennesaw State in the Conference USA title game. Much like the Trojans, they will be out to prove they can finish the season strong with a bowl game win.
Jacksonville State had a different path here, and was largely competitive in all of their losses. They fell to UCF by just seven back in their first game, lost to Georgia Southern by seven, and lost to Florida International by six.
The only “bad” loss was a 42-25 loss to Southern Miss that still found them enjoying some solid offensive success. They also dominated inside Conference USA, while exhibiting strong overall offense.
In an effort to see how they measure up with Troy, here’s a quick look at where Jacksonville State graded out the best this season:
- Ground Control: The GameCocks really know how to run the ball. They enforce their will with a 65% rush rate (6th), but they’re also very effective, churning out 5.4 yards per carry (14th) and over 252 rushing yards per game (4th).
- Protect the Ball: In addition to their ground control system, Jacksonville State doesn’t take many chances they don’t need to. They only commit one giveaway per game, which is tied for the 22nd fewest in college ranks.
- Be Aggressive: On top of taking care of the football, Jacksonville State prides themselves at taking the ball away. Their aggressive and opportunistic defense forces 1.7 takeaways per game – good for 26th in the country.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Troy vs. Jacksonville State matchups:
- Jacksonville State’s rush offense vs. Troy’s run defense: The combination of running back Cam Cook (1,666 yards, 16 TDs) and dual-threat QB Cade Creel is a lot for anyone to handle. I don’t love Troy’s chances, seeing as they give up 4.8 yards per carry (102nd) and over 192 yards per game on the ground (115th).
- Jacksonville State’s passing attack vs. Troy’s pass rush: The GameCocks will run as much as Troy will let them, but they better be careful when they do drop back to pass. Their pass protection (82nd) isn’t the best, while Troy has one of the better pass rushers out there.
- Troy’s passing attack vs. Jacksonville State’s pass defense: The Trojans can flip the script if Goose Crowder brings his A-game and helps Troy build an early lead. He is the key to Troy’s best offensive strength, whereas the GameCocks (113th) are not elite at defending the pass.
Betting Insights & Trends
Jacksonville State has been suspect (6-7) against the spread this year, but they are a decent 5-4 ATS when priced as the underdog.
Troy has been very good (9-4) against the spread, but just 3-2 ATS when favored. They’re also just 2-2 against the spread outside of conference play.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Troy vs. Jacksonville State picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Jacksonville State -104 | The GameCocks are a bit more battle-tested, have a more explosive offense, and have a clear matchup edge on the ground. They also offer superior betting value. | 7/10 |
Over 49.5 (-108) | Neither defense strikes fear into your heart, while Jacksonville State puts up 27 points per game on their own. If their rushing attack is clicking like I think it will, they’ll set the tone for a decently high-scoring game. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Caden Creel Anytime TD Scorer (-185 | Creel isn’t the only guy who makes the GameCocks offense go on the ground, but he has 7 rushing scores, and this is a nice price given the soft matchup. | 6/10 |
- Primary Pick: Jacksonville State ML (-104)
- Secondary Pick: Over 49.5 (-108)
The GameCocks are going to dominate this game on the ground. If they can control the pace of this game, their red-zone defense and ability to win the turnover battle will multiply in terms of value.
While I like Jacksonville State to get the win, the Over is still a really strong secondary bet. The GameCocks still give up over 27 points per game and are not particularly great against the pass – Troy’s main offensive strength.
Troy vs. Jacksonville State odds keep shifting as bettors react to bowl-week momentum — track every line change, compare spreads and totals, and secure the best value at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football bets don’t always work out. Here’s why my Troy vs. Jacksonville State picks could falter:
- In Their Head: These teams haven’t played each other in forever, but the mental hold Troy has over Jacksonville State could always come into play in this matchup.
- One-Dimensional: As great as the GameCocks are on the ground, taking Cade Creel and Cam Cook out of the game would make this offense one-dimensional and give Troy a huge advantage.
- Touchdown Variance: Even if the GameCocks dominate, it’s entirely possible Creel doesn’t score on the ground. Cook has 16 rushing scores on the year, after all.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Jacksonville State 27, Troy 24
My main Jacksonville State vs. Troy prediction is that the GameCocks offer a lot of value as the underdog – and that they get the win. There is a lot that goes into this upset, but a long losing streak to Troy certainly is part of it.
More than anything, however, the GameCocks aren’t playing far from home, and they have a nasty rushing attack led by Cam Cook. Troy simply does not have the defense that can shut this ground game down, while their pass rush really won’t make a big enough impact against a team that prefers to run and can do it so well.
In addition, the Over calls to me when looking at this game. Jacksonville State is quite good offensively, while the Trojans allow over 25 points per game. Neither defense is particularly scary, so I think we get a mild shootout with a good amount of points.
Caden Creel should be a big piece of the puzzle for Jacksonville State, so throwing on an anytime touchdown to wrap things up sounds about right.
