Rams vs. Bears Prediction & Best Bets (January 18th, 2026)
Chicago Bears fans are still riding off the high of a miraculous comeback to down the rival Green Bay Packers. They barely have enough time to adjust to the reality of the NFL playoffs, as their team enters the Divisional Round as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Los Angeles Rams.
Caleb Williams gives the Bears a shot in any game going forward, while an opportunistic Chicago defense can flip the script at a moment’s notice. On the other side, however, are Matthew Stafford and the favored Rams, who have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL all year long.
L.A. grades out as the more complete team with a stronger offense and a nastier defense, but should they be favored on the road? And will they actually make good on their status as 3.5-point favorites?
If you’re looking for a Rams vs. Bears prediction and want to know how to bet on this game, I’ve got you covered. Let’s go over the latest odds and key matchup angles en route to my favorite Rams vs. Bears picks.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, January 18th, 2026 | Kickoff at 5:30 pm (6:30 pm ET) at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL
- Team records entering the game:
- Los Angeles Rams: 13-5
- Chicago Bears: 12-6
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Rams -3.5 (-118) | Bears +3.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Rams (-198) | Bears (+164)
- Total: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
The Rams enter as 3.5-point favorites on the road, which signals a lack of trust in the Bears, who had to overcome a huge 21-3 hole last week just to get here.
This is a very healthy game total. It’s a nod to Chicago’s weak defense and the ability of both offenses.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this Rams vs. Bears Wild Card showdown:
- Iceman: Caleb Williams isn’t the most accurate or consistent, but his late-game rallies have become a regular occurrence. Even if Chicago is down in this game, it feels like they may never be out of it.
- Home Dogs: The Bears may take these odds as a slap in the face, too. It isn’t as if they need extra motivation, but adding fuel to the fire is potentially a negative for the visiting Rams.
- One Last Run: Matthew Stafford is nearing the end of the line, and certain pieces on the Rams are getting older. If the Rams are going to win another title anytime soon, this is the year to do it.
Team Profiles
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have enjoyed a fantastic NFL season, looking like one of the best teams in the league throughout most of the year. L.A. got off to a nice 2-0 start and eventually was 9-2 before long, and was in the thick of the NFC West and #1 seed race.
Los Angeles did hit some mild bumps in the road, as they lost to the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, and also couldn’t outlast the Seattle Seahawks in a crazy 38-37 thriller.
However, the Rams have been one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, while they didn’t lose a single game by more than a touchdown. Equipped with an elite offense and a high-level defense, L.A. is a good bet to escape Chicago and punch their ticket to the NFC title game.
Before making that call, though, let’s take a look at where this team excelled this year:
- Ground Control: Kyren Williams and Blake Corum form a solid one-two punch that is good in short-yardage situations and can also be explosive on the ground. The Rams average a robust 4.6 yards per carry (9th) and also grind out 126 yards per game with their running backs, giving them the 7th-best rushing attack in the league.
- Pass Attack: Matthew Stafford has had quite the NFL MVP campaign, as he tossed 46 scores during the regular season, leading the NFL’s top-ranked passing game. Stafford limited turnovers (1.4% interception rate) while generating big plays down the field (5th in yards per pass) and avoiding sacks (#1 in sacks taken).
- Bend, Don’t Break: The Rams aren’t an easy team to score on. They rank 10th in scoring and rank 11th against the run and limit big plays in the passing game. They do allow you to move the ball a bit, but they tend to shut things down inside the 20, where opponents convert scores at just a 50% clip, giving them the 4th best red-zone defense.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have been the king of the late-game rally. They’ve certainly dug themselves a lot of holes, but their never-die approach was on full display in the first round of the playoffs, where they erased a 21-3 hole and beat the rival Green Bay Packers.
Caleb Williams lacks consistency or elite accuracy, but he has been sensational to close out games, as the Bears turned an 0-2 start into an 11-6 record and an NFC North division crown.
Chicago relies heavily on their late-game heroics and getting turnovers defensively, but they are clearly a very tough out and will get the benefit yet again of playing at home. Before deciding if their playoff run will continue past this weekend, let’s highlight the things they’ve done well on the year to get them to this point:
- Pound the Rock: The Bears build their offense around a strong running game, as D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai form a solid tandem that averages 4.8 yards per carry (3rd) and cranks out 141 yards per game (3rd). They’re also productive near the goal-line, punching in 1.1 scores per game on the ground (10th).
- Pass Attack: While they want to run the ball and control the game, Chicago has a lot of success through the air. Caleb Williams is extremely mobile, has a big arm, and tends to pick his spots wisely. That’s allowed the Bears to rank 3rd in sacks taken, 6th in interception rate, and 8th in passing yards per game.
- Turnover Margin: Chicago is literally the best team in football at both protecting the football and forcing turnovers. They lead the league in turnover margin (+1.1), as they average just 0.7 giveaways and force 1.8 turnovers per game, allowing them to regularly win the battle of field position.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Rams vs. Bears matchups:
- Bears rush offense vs. Rams run defense: Chicago loves to pound the rock and will run all day if you let them. Establishing the run will be key, but it won’t be easy given that the Rams rank 11th against the run and allow the 2nd fewest scores on the ground.
- Rams pass offense vs. Bears secondary: L.A. makes a living with their passing game, and they shouldn’t face much resistance in this matchup. Jordan Love carved up this Chicago secondary last week, while the Bears have the 25th-ranked pass rush and rank just 25th overall against the pass.
- Turnover & Red-Zone Battle: This might be the key to the game. Stafford and Co. can get sloppy at times, but the Rams still rank 4th in turnover margin (+0.7) and force 1.6 turnovers per game. Whoever can win the turnover battle will have a serious leg up. The same can be said in the red zone. The Rams are top-10 inside the 20 on both ends, while the Bears rank just 18th and 19th, respectively.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Rams vs. Bears odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Rams | -3.5 (-118) | -198 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
Bears | +3.5 (-102) | +164 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: This is a tight game in the eyes of the public, as 52% of bets are on the Rams moneyline, while 62% of the bets are on Chicago to beat the spread. The Over is also getting 58% of the bets.
- Record History: The Bears and Rams have played each other 97 total times, with Chicago holding a commanding 55-39-3 edge in the all-time series. The Bears won the most recent clash (24-18) last year, but are 1-3 over the last four meetings.
- ATS Tidbits: L.A. is very good against the spread (12-6), going 8-4 ATS outside of the NFC West and 11-5 ATS when favored. Chicago is about as good (11-7), as they have gone 6-4 ATS as the underdog and 6-3 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Rams vs. Bears
Pick 1: Bears ML (+164) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Chicago is just extremely tough to finish off. Their coach and quarterback instill a ton of confidence in this team, while they also win the turnover battle and don’t make silly mistakes too often. They’re at home, and this stadium is going to be even more hyped than last week.
Risks/What to Watch
Magic tends to run out eventually. Chicago gets in the habit of digging themselves holes or being too reliant on forcing turnovers. It’s possible the next hole they dig ends their playoff run.
Pick 2: Over 48.5 (-110) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Rams just were involved in a crazy 34-31 shootout with the Carolina Panthers, and the Bears are a much tougher opponent. Chicago’s defense stinks, though, so brace for a lot of points.
Risks/What to Watch
The Rams are a better defensive team than the Packers, so if they build a 21-3 lead, they might actually not blow it. If the Rams play to their ability, they could just dominate this game, and the Over could be out of reach.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Davante Adams Anytime TD (-120) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Adams scored 14 touchdowns this year, and that was despite missing games down the stretch. The price for him to score one touchdown feels unbelievable, while the matchup with Chicago is about as good as it gets.
Risks/What to Watch
The Bears can force turnovers and grind the clock on the ground. If they rattle Stafford and co., they could play with a lead and curb L.A.’s scoring. There’s also the case of general touchdown variance, as we saw last week with the Rams.
Rams vs. Bears odds continue to move as bettors react to spread pressure and a rising total — monitor every line change, compare markets, and lock in the best betting value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Bears Shock Rams, Reach NFC Championship
My main Rams vs. Bears prediction is that L.A. comes up short on the road against a very hungry Chicago team that has zero quit in them. There was really no way the Bears should have won last week, but they seem to always make the right play and rally themselves out of holes.
Los Angeles is the better team by the numbers, but they have definitely displayed some flaws down the stretch this year. Their inability to knock Carolina out last week until very late is a major red flag.
Naturally, while I do like the Bears to win, their offensive aptitude and weak defense should combine with the Rams’ offensive upside to get us to the Over. All things considered, this game’s total feels awfully low.
Davante Adams wasn’t very effective last week, but he should rectify that in the Divisional Round. Chicago is a defense he knows well, and his red-zone prowess should pan out nicely against a weak RZ unit.
Final Score Prediction: Chicago Bears 27, Los Angeles Rams 23
