New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Prediction & Best Bets (Sunday, January 18th, 2026)
The New England Patriots are about to find out if star quarterback Drake Maye is the real deal. They probably already know he is to an extent, but the Pats will be light 3-point favorites heading into their Divisional Round showdown with the Houston Texans.
That is not an overwhelming spread for one of the best teams in the AFC at home. And bettors should be able to understand why after seeing what this nasty Houston defense did to Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night.
New England isn’t Pittsburgh, of course, but there’s no denying that the Texans’ defense is one to fear. Houston presents a very tough matchup for the Pats, while the stakes are extremely high with the winner advancing to the AFC title game.
So, which side will win, and what are the best Texans vs. Patriots picks to target? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll analyze the latest odds and key matchups en route to a final Texans vs. Patriots prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, January 18th, 2026 | Kickoff at 2:00 pm (3:00 pm ET) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Team records entering the game:
- Houston Texans: 13-5
- New England Patriots: 15-3
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Texans +3 (+100) | Patriots -3 (-120)
- Moneyline: Texans (+145) | Patriots (-175)
- Total: Over 40.5 (-115) | Under 40.5 (-105)
The opening line has the Pats favored to win at home, but the fairly tight spread pays respect to a truly elite Houston defense.
That respect stretches out to a very low game total. New England’s offense is very good, and they’re at home, but they will face the 2nd best scoring defense in the league.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this Texans vs. Patriots Divisional Round matchup:
- Suffocating D: Both defenses looked insanely good in the first round of the playoffs, allowing a combined nine points. If that continues, we’re looking at an ugly but intense showdown in Foxborough.
- Stay Hot: Houston is on fire at the moment. Their playoff victory on Monday extended their winning streak to an absurd 10 games, with no signs of this team slowing down.
- Concussed: The Texans could be without one of their top weapons in the passing game. Keep an eye on the status of wide receiver Nico Collins, who exited Houston’s Wild Card game with a concussion.
- Home-Field: The Pats do have a clear edge here, as they’ll be playing this game at home, where they are 7-3 on the year, including the playoffs.
Team Profiles
Houston Texans
The Texans have an impressive resume. They got off to an ugly 0-3 start, but they were in all of those games and found a way to bounce back. They did more than just turn their season around, however, as they fought their way to 3-5 before rattling off nine consecutive wins to close out the regular season.
Houston failed to win the AFC South, but they came awfully close and own wins over the 49ers, Bills, and Jaguars. They also played the Rams and Broncos extremely close, falling to L.A. by five in the season opener and losing to Denver by three.
The Texans do have some offensive question marks, but they boast perhaps the best defense in the entire league.
Can they actually take it to the road and stage a big upset over the Pats? Only time will tell, but they’ve stood out in some pretty key categories. Let’s take a quick look at where they’ve excelled the most before deciding if they can get the win.
- Max Protect: A long-running issue with Houston’s offense has been pass protection. It was a problem earlier this year, but the Texans have been better overall, grading out as the 8th best team in sack rate allowed (5.2%). A cleaner pocket allows CJ Stroud to attack down the field and limit turnovers (8th-best INT rate).
- Nothing Big: Houston’s defense is smothering. We saw that in a big way in the first round, and on the year, they allow just 4.0 yards per carry (6th) on the ground and just 6.4 yards per pass (5th) through the air.
- Sack Attack: The Texans get insane pressure up front via Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. They made life hell for Aaron Rodgers (4 sacks), and they boast an 8.1% sack rate (7th). Given the magnitude of this game, that pass rush is going to be a massive factor in this game.
New England Patriots
The Pats have enjoyed a magical season in Mike Vrabel’s first year on the job. Star quarterback Drake Maye has made a huge leap in just his second season, morphing the Patriots from a bottom-feeder into one of the best teams in the NFL.
New England won the AFC East division crown and narrowly missed out on the top seed in the conference. Even so, they earned some home-field playoff games and took care of business last week against the Chargers.
Maye and Co. face a very stiff test this week, but they are equipped to handle difficult matchups, as seen in the Wild Card round. That said, Houston is a different animal, and it remains to be seen if Maye can pass the test two weeks in a row.
To get a better idea of how the Pats measure up, let’s take a look at their biggest strengths from this season:
- Ground Control: The Pats have a nice running back room with the explosive TreVeyon Henderson and the versatile Rhamondre Stevenson leading the charge. That dynamic duo heads the league’s 5th-best ground game, and one that generates 1.2 rushing scores per game (6th). The mobile Drake Maye can be an extension of the running game, too, which keeps defenses guessing.
- Splash Plays: Maye has been phenomenal this year. He is in the NFL MVP race due to his elite play down the field, as the Pats rank #1 in yards per pass (8.9) and are also the most accurate passing attack the league has to offer. In addition, Maye limits mistakes (9th best INT rate) and has his passing game ranked 4th overall.
- Stop the Run: New England is not elite (13th) on a per-carry basis, but they do limit opposing rushing attacks overall. The Pats come into this showdown ranked 11th in rushing rate allowed, 6th in yards allowed per game on the ground, and 2nd in rushing scores given up per game (0.6).
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Texans vs. Patriots matchups:
- Patriots passing game vs. Texans pass rush: This is easily the biggest matchup of this game. New England thrives on accuracy, timing, and big plays in the passing game. They rank 27th in sack rate allowed, however, and they are going up against a defense that is very good at sniffing out the run and getting after the quarterback.
- Texans ground game vs. Patriots run defense: Houston can also take shots down the field, but they probably need to find a way to not be one-dimensional. That won’t be easy against a solid Pats run defense, but New England’s middling yards per carry average allowed (4.2) opens the door to some success here.
- Turnover Battle: This game features two strong defenses and two young quarterbacks. Both of these passers could struggle with pressure and mistakes, but Maye has the tougher matchup on paper. New England also ranks 12th in turnover margin (+0.1), but Houston is +0.9 and typically plays pretty clean football. After doing the opposite last week, don’t be shocked if the Texans win the turnover battle, giving themselves a big advantage.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Texans vs. Patriots odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Texans | +3 (+100) | +145 | Over 40.5 (-115) |
Patriots | -3 (-120) | -175 | Under 40.5 (-105) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public currently has 60% of the bets on New England for the moneyline, while 58% of the bets favor the Pats for the spread as well. The Under is getting 76% of the bets.
- Record History: Houston and New England have only played each other 15 times, with the Patriots holding a commanding 11-4 lead in the series. Houston won the most recent meeting easily (41-21) last year, and are 3-1 over the last four games.
- ATS Tidbits: The Texans (10-8) have been respectable against the spread and are 4-3 ATS as the underdog and 5-4 ATS on the road. New England has been elite (12-5-1) against the spread, going 5-2-1 ATS at home and 8-3-1 ATS as the favorite.
Best Bets for Texans vs. Patriots
Pick 1: Under 40.5 (-105) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Houston had a barrage of scoring in the fourth quarter of their Wild Card game, and the game total still ended at 36. New England’s Wild Card game total settled at 19. With two very good defenses and a trip to the AFC title game packed into this one, the Under is a smash bet.
Risks/What to Watch
The public loves this bet, and they’re often wrong. In addition, New England does boast a dynamic offense that averaged 28.1 points per game during the regular season.
Pick 2: Texans ML (+145) – 6/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Houston’s offense is good enough to stay in games, and their defense is good enough to shut down literally anyone. The Texans have one of the best pass rushes in the league, and the Pats have struggled with pass protection. It’s a total mismatch that favors Houston.
Risks/What to Watch
The Patriots could opt to limit their passing situations to protect Maye. If they can run the ball and pick their spots, they could offset Houston’s clear edge and win a tight one at home.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Hunter Henry Over 4+ Catches (-113) – 6/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Hunter Henry has hit this prop nine times on the year and five times in his last eight games. Houston has been bottom-5 against tight ends of their last four games. With Houston likely taking away deep plays and focusing on limiting Stefon Diggs, Henry getting more involved is a solid bet.
Risks/What to Watch
Pittsburgh wasn’t really able to exploit this matchup last week, and Henry’s role is definitely inconsistent. Plus, the Texans have an elite defense from top to bottom, so targeting them in any way carries a certain amount of risk.
Patriots vs. Texans odds have shifted as bettors react to defensive dominance and a tight spread — track line movement, compare markets, and lock in the best betting value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Texans Stay Hot, Reach AFC Championship Game
Want a Texans vs. Patriots prediction you can build around with your bets? Take Houston to get the win. You can play it safer with the Texans against the spread, but this defense is absolutely devastating, and they have enough on offense to keep the train moving.
Houston is well-coached, and they offer more overall experience in the playoffs at this point than the Pats. New England definitely did not look their best against a worse defense in the Chargers last week, which is the biggest red flag heading into this matchup.
Even if you don’t buy the Texans, the defensive play in this game is going to lead to a slow, grind-it-out defensive battle. I’d hammer the Under, regardless of which team I am betting on.
Final Score Prediction: Houston Texans 16, New England Patriots 13
