Patriots vs. Ravens Prediction & Best Bets (December 21st, 2025)
The New England Patriots head to Maryland in week 16, as they look to take down the Baltimore Ravens in a complex AFC showdown.
Lamar Jackson and co. will play host, eager to dispatch one of the best teams in the conference, with an eye on getting back above .500. New England may not be so quick to oblige, however, as another loss could create further distance between themselves and the Denver Broncos in the race for the AFC’s #1 seed.
Both teams have a lot in play, but the Ravens will undeniably be the more desperate squad, as a loss could nudge them closer to missing the playoffs altogether. The superior Pats will open as 3-point underdogs, creating further confusion in a game that is tough to gauge.
Need some help figuring out the best way to bet on this contest? Join me as I look at the latest odds, highlight the best bets, and unveil my Patriots vs. Ravens prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, December 21st, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:20 pm ET (NBC) at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
- Team records entering the game:
- Patriots: 11-3
- Ravens: 7-7
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Patriots +3.5 (-122) | Ravens -3.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Patriots (+150) | Ravens (-178)
- Total: Over 48.5 (-105) | Under 48.5 (-115)
The Patriots vs. Ravens odds indicate Baltimore is getting a considerable amount of respect at home. Both teams need to win, but Baltimore’s urgency plays into them being favored by a field goal.
This is a pretty high game total, which plays into Baltimore’s defensive struggles. That said, both defenses can be tough, while a game likely around 20 degrees could combine to make the Under a sneaky bet from the jump.
Storylines to Watch
The biggest Patriots vs. Ravens storyline features the Ravens, as they are playing for their playoff lives right now. Baltimore has been red hot as winners of six of their last eight games, but they can’t afford to slow down in this spot.
This is a key game, plus the Ravens face the Green Bay Packers next week before a winner-take-all game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the season finale.
Getting this game is crucial for Baltimore’s playoff hopes, but that’s just one of many key storylines existing in this tense AFC showdown.
- First Place: New England fell to the hated Buffalo Bills last week, but they still have a one-game lead in the AFC East and are also in position for the #1 seed in the conference. A loss to the Ravens could put both at risk, however.
- Road Success: The Patriots have been weirdly unbeatable (6-0) on the road this year. That could be an even bigger deal when you consider how shaky (3-5) Baltimore has been at home in 2025.
- Defensive Battle: The Ravens and Pats both look pretty good defensively. New England got smoked by the Bills last week, but before that had held opponents below 23 points in 11 straight games. The Ravens, meanwhile, shut out Cincinnati last week.
Team Profiles
New England Patriots
The Pats have been on a tear in 2025, winning 11 of their first 14 games and overcoming a 0-1 start to be one of the best teams in the NFL.
It’s how you finish and now how you start, however. New England just saw their 10-game winning streak snapped in a collapse to the Bills last week, so it will be interesting to see how they respond.
Offense hasn’t been the problem. Drake Maye has enjoyed a career year and borderline MVP production, with the Pats safely topping 24+ points in nine straight games. They have the offensive ceiling and defensive play to go toe-to-toe with anyone, and now they’ll be tasked with containing Lamar Jackson.
The Pats aren’t favored to win this game, but they arguably should be. Here’s a quick look at what’s made them so good on the year:
- Pass Attack: Drake Maye heads one of the league’s best passing games. Maye leads the league in accuracy, while this team is very explosive (8.7 yards per pass) and ranks 6th overall through the air.
- Protect the Ball: New England does a great job taking care of the football. Maye ranks 11th in interception rate, while the Pats are tied for the 9th fewest turnovers in the NFL.
- Stop the Run: The Pats have a pedestrian pass defense, but they are nasty up front. New England only allows 4.1 yards per rush (12th) and holds opposing offenses to just 95.1 yards per game on the ground (5th).
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens looked like a Super Bowl contender early in the year, as they lost a wild shootout to the Bills and then trounced the Browns. Another shootout loss to the Lions displayed a bad trend for their defense, but offensively, this team showed it could hang with anyone.
Unfortunately, Lamar Jackson got hurt, and the team couldn’t stop the bleeding. The Ravens got off to a 1-4 start, and for a good while, their outlook looked bleak. Strong coaching and improvements on defense helped Baltimore turn their season around, however, and they’ve gone 6-2 over their last eight games.
Consider the season saved, but this team still isn’t over .500, and it’s all for nothing if they can’t win the AFC North. The Ravens are flawed, but they do look like a potential contender if they’re healthy and avoid silly mistakes.
Let’s take a quick look at what’s made them good this year:
- Ground Control: As you’d expect, a team with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson is strong on the ground. The duo combine to formulate the 3rd-best rushing offense in the NFL. Baltimore runs at the 2nd highest rate (49%), but still operates at a 5.2 yards per carry clip – tops in pro football.
- Splash Plays: Baltimore isn’t efficient through the air, but they sure can spring big plays. Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely contribute to a passing game that ranks 7th in yards per pass (7.6), giving the Ravens a dynamic attack.
- Nothing Deep: Conversely, Baltimore doesn’t get burned deep very often. They’ve adjusted a previously porous defense, as their secondary allows just 6.7 yards per pass (10th).
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Patriots vs. Ravens matchups:
- Baltimore’s rush offense vs. New England’s run defense: The Ravens love to run the football and are quite good at it. Their rushing attack will be tested in this one, however, as the Pats hold opposing offenses to just 95.1 yards per game (5th) and usually keep them out of the endzone on the ground (2nd) as well.
- New England’s pass offense vs. Baltimore’s pass defense: Baltimore’s pass defense only ranks 26th, but they limit big plays down the field. That could be problematic for Draye Maye and co., as the Pats rank 1st in yards per pass and thrive on big plays through the air.
- New England’s RZ offense vs. Baltimore’s RZ defense: Baltimore is a strong bend-but-don’t-break defense, as opponents only score 51.8% of the time once they cross the 20 (7th). That could be bad for New England, who doesn’t have the most reliable red-zone offense (24th).
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Patriots vs. Ravens odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | +3.5 (-122) | +150 | Over 48.5 (-105) |
Ravens | -3.5 (+100) | -178 | Under 48.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: New England is the preferred team to back right now in the eyes of the public. The Pats are getting 66% of the bets and 85% of the money.
- Record History: The Patriots and Ravens have faced off 16 times in NFL history, with New England holding a 11-5 series lead. Baltimore won the most recent meeting (37-26) in 2022, but the Pats are 4-2 over the last six matchups.
- ATS Tidbits: The Patriots have been good (8-5-1) against the spread, but are just 3-2 ATS as the underdog. Baltimore has been very weak (5-9) against the spread, and are 5-7 ATS when favored and just 2-6 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Patriots vs. Ravens
Pick 1: New England Patriots ML (+150) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Patriots are simply the better team. Baltimore has still looked pretty flawed during a recent 1-2 stretch, and the Pats worked hard to put themselves in position for some pretty great things. I don’t think they fumble all of that against an inferior team.
Risks/What to Watch
Baltimore is desperate, at home, and has been winning far more than losing lately. They could easily live up to their billed favorite status and score a big win to get back over .500.
Pick 2: Under 48.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This is a bitter AFC clash in the cold with both teams surely coming to play. With two competent defenses and a lot on the line, I think the freezing temperatures give the Under the jolt it needs.
Risks/What to Watch
While the weather and defensive aptitude set this game up for the Under, the offensive firepower keeps the Over in play. If both offenses play to their ceilings, this could turn into a shootout and make the Under whiff.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Derrick Henry Anytime TD (-130) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
These are pretty great odds for a Derrick Henry Anytime touchdown bet. Henry is someone the Ravens turn to frequently inside the 20, as he’s scored 10 touchdowns on the ground in 2025 and has a touchdown in seven different games.
Risks/What to Watch
This game could be lower-scoring than the high total suggests. On top of that, Lamar Jackson could vulture Henry’s goal-line work, or the Ravens could simply score their touchdowns through the air.
Patriots vs. Ravens odds are shifting as bettors react to playoff stakes and market pressure — track every line change, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Patriots Inch Closer to AFC East, #1 Seed
Both teams have a ton to play for, but New England has been the more cohesive team throughout this season. They’re more trustworthy and with two huge things hanging over their head – the division crown and the top seed in the AFC – I think they come to play.
Baltimore can’t gain anything more than the AFC North this year, and little that they do matters until they face the Steelers in week 18. That means they can afford to fall to a better team with more to play for, and I think that is precisely what will happen.
Besides, how can I bypass the Pats at this sick +130 moneyline? It’s not every day you get a rock-solid 11-3 team at these odds.
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 23, Ravens 20
