New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Prediction (January 25th, 2026)
The New England Patriots will vie for their 12th Super Bowl appearance this weekend, when they battle the Denver Broncos in Colorado. New England will be 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings, despite being on the road and dealing with the higher elevation.
There’s a pretty good reason for that, of course. Other than the Pats being separated by the Broncos by just one win during the regular season, they’ll also be facing a Denver offense missing star quarterback Bo Nix.
Nix is out for the remainder of the season due to an ankle fracture, which forces the Broncos to turn to the far less dynamic Jarrett Stidham. Broncos head coach Sean Payton and co. are putting on the bravest of faces – and hoping for a Nick Foles-esque miracle – but this injury very likely derails any realistic title hopes.
But that’s the job of sports bettors; to decide if the Patriots are now a lock, or if Denver can rise up and defy all logic en route to another Super Bowl.
I’ll help you make that call, as I highlight the best bets for this game and wrap things up with a final Patriots vs. Broncos prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, January 25th, 2026 | Kickoff at 2:00 pm (2:00 pm ET) at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO
- Team records entering the game:
- New England Patriots: 16-3
- Denver Broncos: 15-3
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Patriots -4.5 (-102) | Broncos +4.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Patriots (-218) | Broncos (+180)
- Total: Over 42.5 (-118) | Under 42.5 (-102)
The early Patriots vs. Broncos odds favor New England, as a 4.5-point line on the road is pretty telling. The Pats get to face an unproven backup quarterback, though, so it’s easy to see why DraftKings prices them as the clear favorite.
This game has a very low total due to elite defensive play. New England allowed just 16 points in a win last week, and the Broncos may need to deliver their best defensive performance of the year simply to keep this one competitive.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this Patriots vs. Broncos AFC Championship game showdown:
- Backup QB: The Broncos are forced to turn to backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham following the news of Bo Nix’s broken ankle. Will he play to expectation, or seize this opportunity for a ride he’ll never forget?
- Home Field: Denver earned home field advantage with the best record in the AFC and they’ll need to lean on it in order to get past the Patriots. To their credit, the Broncos moved to 9-1 at home on the year with a win over the Bills last week.
- New Dynasty: Are the Patriots about to start a brand new dynasty? Drake Maye has already reached an elite level of play in just his second season, sparking comparisons to Tom Brady and New England’s previous dynasty.
Team Profiles
New England Patriots
The Patriots lack many marquee wins this year, but they still went 14-3 during the regular season and won the AFC East. They downed the Buffalo Bills in one of their games, and over their first two playoff games, their defense has looked fantastic.
On the year, New England has exhibited elite offensive ability, being able to effectively run the football and make huge plays down the field in the passing game. It’s been their defense that has been the star of their playoff run; however, as they’ve allowed 19 total points through two convincing victories.
Of course, bettors can get a good idea as to what New England brings to the table by looking at their full body of work. With that, here’s a glance at where they thrived the most this year:
- Ground Control: The Pats have been a top-10 unit on the ground. They’re average from a yards per carry perspective (14th), but they are a balanced team that runs over 47% of the time and churns out over 128 yards per game (6th). They managed 105 rushing yards against an elite Houston defense last week, which shows they can find success on the ground against anyone.
- Splash Plays: New England has been the best team in pro football at springing big plays in the passing game. Drake Maye leads the NFL’s most accurate passing game, but it’s also one with underrated weapons that explode for 8.8 yards per pass (1st). This passing attack burned an elite Texans defense multiple times last week, so they should have their moments in the AFC title game.
- Stop the Run: The Pats are a very fundamentally strong team, as they are tough to win against in the trenches. That’s certainly the case against the run, as they only give up 4.1 yards per carry (10th) and rank 5th against the run overall. This could make for rough sledding for RJ Harvey and Denver’s rushing attack.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos outlasted the Buffalo Bills in a wild 33-30 win last week, reminding everyone yet again that this team is never dead in any game. You’d see that if you look at their schedule, too, as the Broncos have won 12 games by just one score on the year.
Of their three losses, two of them came by three points or less. Denver can certainly get some criticism for not blowing more teams out, but there’s no denying they are a resilient group that either rallies late, or knows how to close out games.
That ability will be tested in the AFC Championship game, as star quarterback Bo Nix is done for the year with an ankle injury. Considering Nix’s dynamic play and the way Denver’s offense was run, turning to unproven backup Jarrett Stidham changes things quite a bit.
Before we make a call on Denver’s prospects, though, let’s see where they graded out well on the season:
- Max Protect: Bo Nix has his critics, but he did not take sacks (#1 in sack rate), he protected the football (11th lowest INT rate), and he was productive through the air (10th best passing game). Denver’s ability to protect the passer is key here, but it’ll be up to the inexperienced Stidham to limit mistakes against a tough Patriots defense that forced CJ Stroud into four interceptions last week.
- Sack Attack: Denver almost definitely needs to make this an extremely low-scoring game. That plight starts up front, as they own a top-5 run defense, as well as the NFL’s scariest pass rush. The Broncos generate a 10.1% sack rate, giving them an even better pass rush than what Drake Maye saw versus Houston a week ago.
- Bend, Don’t Break: The Bills hung 30 points on the Broncos, so scoring on them isn’t impossible. However, New England may need to do it from far away. Denver owns the league’s second-best red-zone defense, only allowing a score inside the 20 44% of the time.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Patriots vs. Broncos matchups:
- Patriots passing offense vs. Broncos pass rush: Drake Maye and the Pats own the most explosive offense through the air. Denver ranks 2nd in yards per pass and has the very best pass rush in all of football. Something has to break.
- Jarrett Stidham vs. Patriots secondary: New England’s pass rush isn’t as nasty, but their pass defense ranks 6th in yards per pass and 7th overall. Stidham lacks experience, so if he can get tricked into some mistakes, he could unravel in a hurry.
- Turnover & RZ Battles: These are key to most games, but both teams are top-15 in giveaways. The matchups can render that meaningless, of course. Execution inside the 20 will also be key. Denver holds the clear edge defensively, but not having their main QB should provide a substantial boost to New England’s 23rd-ranked RZ defense.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | -4.5 (-102) | -218 | Over 42.5 (-118) |
Broncos | +4.5 (-118) | +180 | Under 42.5 (-102) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public loves the Patriots here, as New England is getting 72% of the moneyline bets and 82% of the bets on the spread. The Over is getting 59% of the love, too.
- Record History: The Broncos and Patriots have some rich playoff history and have met 55 times total in NFL history. Denver leads the series 31-24, but lost the most recent meeting (26-23) in 2023. The Pats are 3-1 over the last four meetings, but none of those games featured the current starting quarterbacks.
- ATS Tidbits: New England has been great (13-5-1) against the spread, going 9-4 ATS outside of the AFC East, 9-3-1 ATS when favored, and 7-1 ATS on the road. Denver has been less reliable against the spread (8-9-1), but they are 6-4 ATS at home and 4-0-1 ATS as the underdog.
Best Bets for Patriots vs. Broncos
Pick 1: Patriots ATS -4.5 (-102) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
New England could be looking at a layup game, as they get to face a backup quarterback. Their ML is a bit steep at -258. It’s much safer, but they’ve been good against the spread and have covered this spread in both of their playoff games so far.
Risks/What to Watch
The big issues are that the Pats are on the road, and they still have to get past a nasty Denver defense. It’s also possible Stidham plays better than expected and finds a way to keep this one close.
Pick 2: Under 42.5 (-102) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Denver’s only hope of winning is by limiting New England’s big plays. Denver’s offense is also very tough to trust with a backup running the show. It’s quite likely we get a low-scoring game like what New England dealt with in the Wild Card round.
Risks/What to Watch
Both offenses are still incredibly dynamic. New England can torch any defense down the field, while Jarrett Stidham does still have some nice weapons to go to war with.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Kayshon Boutte Over 40+ Receiving Yards (-101) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Boutte was the star of the offense last week, popping off for 75 receiving yards and a touchdown. He went for 66 yards the game before as well. The matchup is brutal, but with Patrick Surtain II likely draping Stefon Diggs, Boutte could thrive.
Risks/What to Watch
The matchup is awful, and Denver limits big plays in the passing game. They could work to take New England’s top two pass catchers out of the game, which would obviously hurt this prop.
Patriots vs. Broncos odds have continued to move as bettors react to QB uncertainty and defensive matchups — follow spread and total shifts, compare prices, and lock in the best betting value at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Patriots Start Dynasty Convo, Down Broncos
My main Patriots vs. Broncos prediction is that we get a hard-nosed game with precious little scoring. That does give the Broncos a shot to keep this close or even pull off the upset at home, but trusting in a backup quarterback against this Patriots defense is asking a lot.
New England may have been the right call even if Bo Nix was healthy enough to suit up for this game. The Pats have cruised through the playoffs so far, as they handled both the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans relatively convincingly.
We knew the Pats could get it done offensively, but a solid defense has upped their game to a whole new level in the postseason. Mike Vrabel has put a championship stamp on this team, and I don’t see them stumbling now.
New England is a really good bet to win, but there’s no value in their moneyline outside of tossing it onto a parlay. I think we can trust them to cover, but even with that being the case, this one could be pretty ugly. Take the Pats, but hammer the Under.
Final Score Prediction: New England Patriots 20, Denver Broncos 13
