Week 1 NFL DFS Picks for Sunday (9/13/2026): Top Plays, GPP Targets & Stacks
Brock Bowers had meniscus surgery on Tuesday, and that one procedure reshaped tight end on the DraftKings Week 1 main slate before a single snap. It turns Michael Mayer into a $2,900 starter against a Miami defense that gave up the third-most PPR points to tight ends last season, and it leaves Trey McBride as the only elite tight end worth paying up for. Those two sit at the center of my Week 1 NFL DFS picks, along with Justin Herbert, Jahmyr Gibbs and Ja’Marr Chase at the top of the salary scale.
The first Sunday of the season is here, and the 12-game main slate is not loaded with high-scoring games: only Buccaneers at Bengals and Saints at Lions carry a total above 47.5, and both sit at 50.5. It is littered with star power, though, and there are solid spots to target at every position. Below are my top spends, best values, GPP targets and favorite stacks for building DraftKings lineups.
Twelve Games, Two Kickoff Windows and Late Swap
The DraftKings main slate for Week 1 covers 12 Sunday afternoon games, with eight kicking off at 1:00 PM ET and four more at 4:25 PM ET. Cowboys at Giants on Sunday night and Broncos at Chiefs on Monday night are not part of it, so if you want those two games in play, DraftKings also runs a 14-game Sunday-to-Monday classic slate. Rosters are the usual nine spots (a quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end, a flex and a defense) under a $50,000 cap.
Real salaries are back after a preseason of flat pricing, so value tiers matter again. Jahmyr Gibbs is the most expensive player in the pool at $8,000, with Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) and Bijan Robinson ($7,700) right behind him.
What DraftKings’ Lines Say About Week 1
Two games share the top of the board at 50.5, Buccaneers at Bengals and Saints at Lions, and nothing else on the slate sits higher than 47.5. Detroit (28.75) and the Chargers (28.5) own the two highest implied team totals, Cincinnati is third at 27.0, and Cleveland’s 15.5 is the lowest by three full points. The Chargers are the biggest favorite at 9.5, with Jacksonville next at 8.5. If you want the side-and-total view of these same games, our NFL Week 1 picks cover every game on the card.
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | Spread | Total | Implied Team Totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons at Steelers | 1:00 PM | PIT -3.5 | 42.5 | PIT 23.0 / ATL 19.5 |
| Ravens at Colts | 1:00 PM | BAL -3.5 | 47.5 | BAL 25.5 / IND 22.0 |
| Bills at Texans | 1:00 PM | BUF -1.5 | 44.5 | BUF 23.0 / HOU 21.5 |
| Bears at Panthers | 1:00 PM | CHI -3 | 46.5 | CHI 24.75 / CAR 21.75 |
| Browns at Jaguars | 1:00 PM | JAX -8.5 | 39.5 | JAX 24.0 / CLE 15.5 |
| Saints at Lions | 1:00 PM | DET -7 | 50.5 | DET 28.75 / NO 21.75 |
| Jets at Titans | 1:00 PM | TEN -1.5 | 38.5 | TEN 20.0 / NYJ 18.5 |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | 1:00 PM | CIN -3.5 | 50.5 | CIN 27.0 / TB 23.5 |
| Cardinals at Chargers | 4:25 PM | LAC -9.5 | 47.5 | LAC 28.5 / ARI 19.0 |
| Packers at Vikings | 4:25 PM | MIN -1.5 | 46.5 | MIN 24.0 / GB 22.5 |
| Dolphins at Raiders | 4:25 PM | LV -3 | 40.5 | LV 21.75 / MIA 18.75 |
| Commanders at Eagles | 4:25 PM | PHI -5.5 | 44.5 | PHI 25.0 / WAS 19.5 |
Lines via DraftKings, captured Thursday, September 10. Implied team totals split each total by its spread. They are the market’s numbers, not projections, and they move.
Jacksonville Is the Only Weather Worth Watching
Six of the 12 games are played outdoors, and only one forecast should touch a lineup. The National Weather Service forecast for Jacksonville has 88 degrees and a 26 percent chance of storms at kickoff for Browns at Jaguars, jumping to 58 percent with showers and thunderstorms likely from the 2:00 hour on. That game already owns the second-lowest total on the board at 39.5, and a lightning delay would not help anyone rostered in it.
Nashville is the heat game, with Jets at Titans forecast for 88 degrees at kickoff and the low 90s by the second half. Pittsburgh (79 degrees), Charlotte (87) and Cincinnati (82) show only slight chances of rain with light wind, and so does Philadelphia (83) for the 4:25 kickoff. Both 50.5-point games look safe, with Saints at Lions under the Ford Field roof and a mostly sunny afternoon forecast in Cincinnati. The other five games are covered too: U.S. Bank Stadium, Allegiant Stadium and SoFi Stadium have fixed roofs, while Lucas Oil Stadium and NRG Stadium have retractable ones. These forecasts are from Thursday, so check again Sunday morning.
Top Spend at Each Position for Week 1
Justin Herbert is my top quarterback spend, Jahmyr Gibbs my top running back, Ja’Marr Chase my top receiver and Trey McBride my top tight end. Herbert, Gibbs and Chase play for the three offenses with the highest implied team totals on the slate, and McBride is the lone premium tight end left standing.
Justin Herbert Has the Price, the Spread and McDaniel
Herbert comes in with the slate’s best projection in my numbers, and at $6,100 he is far from the most expensive quarterback: six passers cost more, topped by Josh Allen at $7,000. That makes him the best value at the position, too. The matchup with Arizona is only average, but the Chargers are at home, favored by 9.5 and carrying the second-highest implied team total on the board at 28.5.
He also has a deep set of weapons and a brilliant offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel, who came over after four seasons as Miami’s head coach. Put all of that together, and Herbert looks like perhaps the top overall quarterback play of Week 1.
Jahmyr Gibbs Is a Very Risky Fade
At running back, there isn’t a better high-level play than Jahmyr Gibbs. He is the most expensive player in the pool at $8,000, and the setup justifies it: Detroit owns the highest implied team total on the slate (28.75) in one of the two games sitting at 50.5.
His top backup, Isiah Pacheco, is on injured reserve, and Dan Campbell described the work behind Gibbs as “by committee” between Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors, two backs DraftKings lists at 0.1 fantasy points per game or less. Gibbs has the explosiveness and versatility to drop a nuke on a slate, and he is a top-three projecting player in my numbers. DraftKings’ own averages agree, with Gibbs tied for third in the pool at 22.3, so fading him is a real risk.
Ja’Marr Chase Is in the Game of the Week
Ja’Marr Chase is unsurprisingly the top spend at wide receiver. He costs $7,800, but his projection is right up there with Gibbs and he is the cheaper of the two by $200. The environment is what makes this a smash spot: Buccaneers at Bengals shares the highest total on the slate at 50.5, Cincinnati’s 27.0 implied total ranks third, and the forecast calls for a mostly sunny afternoon. The matchup itself is fine rather than great, since Tampa Bay allowed the 14th-most PPR points to wide receivers last season, but the game environment carries this one.
Trey McBride Is the Obvious Tight End Spend
Brock Bowers had meniscus surgery on Tuesday and could return in a week or two, according to an Associated Press source, which makes McBride the obvious tight end spend for Week 1. DraftKings still lists Bowers at $6,900 with a doubtful tag, and after McBride, no tight end costs more than Colston Loveland’s $5,300.
McBride isn’t cheap at $6,800, and his projection doesn’t blow you away, partly because the Chargers allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points to tight ends last season. He will still be needed with Arizona catching 9.5 points, and the Cardinals are thin in the backfield, where DraftKings lists James Conner and Trey Benson on injured reserve and Jeremiyah Love as questionable. In terms of absolute ceiling and floor, no tight end looks better.
Best Values for Salary Relief
Malik Willis, MarShawn Lloyd, Devaughn Vele and Michael Mayer are my favorite ways to save salary at each position, and Mayer is the easiest of the four to lock in.
Malik Willis Brings a Rushing Floor at $5,300
If you’re trying to save some cash, quarterback is a good place to do it, because a long list of starters costs under $6,000 and still offers upside. My favorite is Malik Willis, especially since someone like Kyler Murray ($5,500) may end up carrying far more ownership.
Willis isn’t in a particularly explosive game on paper, since Dolphins at Raiders owns the third-lowest total on the slate at 40.5. What he brings is a rushing floor. In his lone start for Green Bay last season, he threw for 288 yards and added 60 more on the ground, and any risk in his first game as Miami’s starter is baked into a pretty palatable price tag.
MarShawn Lloyd Gets the First Crack in Green Bay
It’s unknown exactly how involved MarShawn Lloyd will be in Green Bay’s running game in Week 1, but he sits first on the Packers’ unofficial depth chart and should get the first crack at running the show. The Packers need him to shine with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner’s exempt list, which keeps Jacobs off the 53-man roster and out of games.
The catch is volume. Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said the backfield will be a committee “for a little bit,” with Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson involved, and Lloyd’s last two seasons were wrecked by injuries. DraftKings also lists Pierre Strong Jr. as questionable and Damien Martinez as out, which thins the group. A road date with a Minnesota defense that allowed the 10th-fewest PPR points to running backs last season isn’t optimal, but at $4,800 the savings keep him in play.
Devaughn Vele Is Suddenly the Saints’ No. 2 Receiver
Vele might be the most appealing punt at wide receiver when you weigh price, game environment and role. The Saints need him with first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, and New Orleans’ unofficial depth chart lists Vele beside Chris Olave as a starter. A potential shootout in Detroit raises the ceiling, since Saints at Lions shares the top total on the slate at 50.5.
This is a receiver who has flashed PPR upside before. Vele caught five passes across his first eight games in New Orleans last season, then took on a bigger role and turned 29 targets into 20 catches for 254 yards over a five-game stretch before a shoulder injury cost him the final three games. At $3,500, he opens this season as the Saints’ WR2.
Michael Mayer Is the Easiest Value on the Board
The easiest value to lock into your Week 1 NFL DFS lineups is Raiders tight end Michael Mayer. The Bowers injury thrusts him into a huge role, and it is one he has handled before: Mayer set career highs last season with 35 catches for 328 yards, and more than half of both came in games Bowers missed.
The matchup has me doubling down, because Miami allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends last season. At $2,900, he looks like a core play. The one box to check is Bowers himself, since both Raiders tight ends play in the 4:25 game, so confirm Bowers is inactive before you lock in Mayer.
Best GPP Picks to Target
Jayden Daniels, De’Von Achane, Emeka Egbuka and Dallas Goedert are my favorite tournament targets. Anything goes in GPPs, so to be fair, anyone owned under 10 percent could fit the bill if you can make a case, but these are the four I can make the strongest case for.
Jayden Daniels Has Top-Five Upside
The argument is pretty strong for Daniels. Washington is only a 5.5-point underdog in Philadelphia, which leaves room for this game to turn into a shootout, and beyond that, Daniels has a solid supporting cast in Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs plus a built-in rushing floor. His $6,500 price should keep his ownership down, but this is a quarterback with top-five upside.
De’Von Achane Is a Discount at Low Ownership
Achane at less than 10 percent ownership in GPPs, which is what I expect? Sign me up. I get it: Miami’s offense isn’t supposed to be great, and its 18.75 implied total is the third lowest on the slate. Volume plus talent can still trump even a bad situation, and his Week 1 matchup doesn’t look scary, since Las Vegas allowed the 12th-most PPR points to running backs last season.
All things considered, it feels like we’re getting a discount on a top-five running back. DraftKings’ own season averages put him in that tier, too, at 20.9 fantasy points per game, fourth among the backs on this slate.
Emeka Egbuka Is the Sneaky Buccaneer
Egbuka feels pretty sneaky. He was a full participant in practice Wednesday after spraining his toe in a joint practice with the Jets in August, and with Mike Evans now in San Francisco, he should be a focal point in the game of the week. There is still some risk that the toe flares up, but if Buccaneers at Bengals pops off the way its 50.5 total suggests, he could be a big reason why.
He isn’t priced out of play at $6,200, which is a tad shocking given how fast he started as a rookie. Egbuka became the first player in NFL history with at least 25 catches, 400 yards and five touchdowns through his first five career games.
Dallas Goedert Can Slip Through the Cracks
There are a lot of cheap tight ends to consider, and then there are three priced over $5,000 in Bowers, McBride and Colston Loveland. After doing some digging into what goes into a DraftKings Milly Maker winner, though, I keep finding that paying down at tight end is a running theme. With everyone doing that with Michael Mayer, guys like Mark Andrews ($3,900), Juwan Johnson ($3,700) and Goedert ($4,100) could slip through the cracks.
Goedert is the most appealing of that group. He should have an elevated role in the passing game with A.J. Brown now in New England after the June trade, and the matchup looks promising, since Washington allowed the sixth-most PPR points to tight ends last season.
Top NFL DFS Stacks for Week 1
My seven favorite Week 1 stacks pair a quarterback with his top pass catcher, starting with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Stacking options are endless, but these are some of the most popular, and each one is listed with its team’s implied total from the betting market.
You will want at least a quarterback plus one pass catcher in any tournament lineup, but the more correlation you can find, the better. That means tacking on a second or even a third player from the same team and considering a run-back from the other side. I am mostly prioritizing good game environments, attackable matchups and players who actually project well, which is why these totals matter, and our guide to over/under betting explains the numbers behind them.
How to Get Different With the Burrow Stack
Take Burrow as the example. Burrow and Chase will be quite popular, so you can get different in two ways: stack Burrow with anyone not named Chase, or build Burrow stacks that add one or two more Bengals on top of Chase. The leading candidates are Chase Brown ($7,100) and Tee Higgins ($6,300), but if you want to get wild with No. 3 receiver Andrei Iosivas ($3,300) or tight end Mike Gesicki ($3,100), more power to you.
If you’re that invested in a Bengals stack, it stands to reason Tampa Bay will have some success on the other side, so I’d then consider running it back with Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving ($5,700), Chris Godwin Jr. ($5,200) or any other Buccaneer you like. The rationale is simple: if that full game stack delivers, you’re halfway to a lineup that can climb a tournament leaderboard.
Check Zay Flowers Before You Lock the Ravens Stack
One stack comes with a caveat. Zay Flowers was limited in practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury and carries a questionable tag at DraftKings, though he told reporters he feels great and is ready to play. Ravens at Colts is a 1:00 PM ET kickoff, so his status will be settled by the early inactive lists, and you should confirm it before the early games lock.
Building Your Week 1 NFL DFS Lineups
It’s key to have a foundational NFL DFS strategy and process. Before you do anything, scan the latest odds, identify the weak points in each matchup and check in on updated player projections. If you want a framework for which numbers deserve the most weight, start with our breakdown of the NFL DFS metrics that matter most.
That work lets you start forming game and player pools, which in turn pinpoints the main stacks you want to attack. From there, plug your findings into some type of lineup optimizer so you can generate correlated lineups and see which ones project best.
Take fewer risks and lean away from heavy stacking in cash games. In bigger GPPs, minimize chalky plays, get unique and lean hard into high-ceiling options. On this slate in particular, use late swap: eight of the 12 players carded above play at 4:25, so the last news check before those games matters as much as the first one. More breakdowns for every slate live on our daily fantasy sports hub.
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Frequently Asked Questions
A full 12-game board, real salaries and a late window that holds most of these plays raise questions a preseason slate never did. Here are the ones I get most about Week 1.
What does GPP mean in NFL DFS, and how is it different from a cash game?
GPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. Those are the big tournaments where only the top slice of the field gets paid and first place takes a large share, so you want lower-owned players with high ceilings and correlated stacks, which is why Jayden Daniels and De’Von Achane sit in my tournament tier. Cash games are head-to-heads, double-ups and 50/50s where roughly half the field gets paid, so safer floors win out there. Take fewer risks and lean away from heavy stacking in cash, and save the leverage plays for GPPs.
Can I still swap out a player in the 4:25 games after the 1:00 PM ET games have started?
Yes. The DraftKings classic format allows late swap, so anyone in the four 4:25 PM ET games (Cardinals at Chargers, Packers at Vikings, Dolphins at Raiders and Commanders at Eagles) stays editable until his own game kicks off. Inactive lists come out 90 minutes before kickoff, around 2:55 PM ET for the late window. That matters more than usual this week, because eight of the 12 players in this article play at 4:25, including Michael Mayer, Trey McBride and Justin Herbert.
How does the Brock Bowers surgery change tight end on the Week 1 slate?
It turns Michael Mayer into the easiest value on the board and leaves Trey McBride as the only premium tight end worth paying up for. Bowers had meniscus surgery on Tuesday and could return in a week or two, per an Associated Press source, and DraftKings lists him as doubtful at $6,900. Mayer set career highs last season with 35 catches for 328 yards, more than half of it in games Bowers missed, and he faces a Miami defense that allowed the third-most PPR points to tight ends. Both Raiders tight ends play at 4:25, so confirm Bowers is inactive before you lock in Mayer.
Which Week 1 games should I be targeting for stacks?
Start with the two games at the top of the board, Buccaneers at Bengals and Saints at Lions, which both carry a 50.5 total. Detroit (28.75), the Chargers (28.5) and Cincinnati (27.0) have the three highest implied team totals, which is why Jared Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Herbert with Quentin Johnston and Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase are on my list. Burrow and Chase will be popular, so consider adding Chase Brown or Tee Higgins, or running it back with Emeka Egbuka on the Tampa Bay side.
Is the weather going to affect any of the Week 1 main slate games?
Browns at Jaguars is the only game with a real concern. As of Thursday, the National Weather Service had 88 degrees and a 26 percent chance of storms at kickoff in Jacksonville, rising to 58 percent with showers and thunderstorms likely from the 2:00 hour on. Jets at Titans is the heat game, starting near 88 degrees and climbing into the low 90s. Both 50.5-point games look safe, with Saints at Lions indoors at Ford Field and a mostly sunny forecast in Cincinnati. Forecasts move, so check again Sunday morning.
