NFL Week 1 Picks (2026): Safest Favorites, Top Upsets & Best Spreads
Twelve of the 16 games on the NFL Week 1 board are priced at a field goal or less, which tells you how little the market trusts anyone in September. That is exactly why Jacksonville stands out. The Jaguars are the safest favorite on the slate at -395 to beat Cleveland, and I like them to cover -7.5 as well. My best spread bet is the Saints +7 in Detroit, my favorite underdog is the Broncos at +124 in Kansas City, and the full board (survivor pick, parlay and all 16 predictions) is below, priced at DraftKings on September 2, 2026.
Betting Week 1 early is a different exercise from betting a Sunday afternoon. You get months to study rosters, but injury news does not settle until the week of the game, and a lot has changed since these lines first went up: Kyler Murray is now Minnesota’s starter, Micah Parsons is on the shelf in Green Bay, and Patrick Mahomes has been cleared to open the season. Every price in this article has been re-checked against the live board, and I note where the number has moved since our odds archive first captured it in mid-August.
NFL Week 1 Quick Picks
Here is the short version for anyone who wants the bets without the reasoning. Every price below is the DraftKings number as of September 2, 2026, and the reasoning for each one follows further down.
How the Week 1 Board Looks One Week Out
The Chargers, Jaguars and Lions are the only three teams laying more than a touchdown, and only one game on the slate has a total above 50. Everything else is bunched between a pick’em and a field goal, which makes Week 1 a spread bettor’s slate more than a moneyline slate. The full DraftKings board as of September 2, 2026 is below, and the official kickoff times are on the NFL’s Week 1 schedule page.
| Game (Kickoff ET) | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks (Wed 9/9, 8:20 PM) | SEA -3.5 | SEA -175 / NE +145 | 44.5 |
| 49ers vs. Rams in Melbourne (Thu 9/10, 8:35 PM) | LAR -3.5 | LAR -198 / SF +164 | 48.5 |
| Falcons at Steelers (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | PIT -3 | PIT -175 / ATL +145 | 41.5 |
| Ravens at Colts (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | BAL -3.5 | BAL -175 / IND +145 | 48.5 |
| Bills at Texans (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | BUF -1.5 | BUF -118 / HOU -102 | 44.5 |
| Bears at Panthers (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | CHI -2.5 | CHI -162 / CAR +136 | 47.5 |
| Buccaneers at Bengals (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | CIN -3.5 | CIN -198 / TB +164 | 50.5 |
| Browns at Jaguars (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | JAX -7.5 | JAX -395 / CLE +310 | 40.5 |
| Saints at Lions (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | DET -7 | DET -298 / NO +240 | 49.5 |
| Jets at Titans (Sun 9/13, 1:00 PM) | TEN -1.5 | TEN -130 / NYJ +110 | 38.5 |
| Cardinals at Chargers (Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM) | LAC -10.5 | LAC -550 / ARI +410 | 46.5 |
| Packers at Vikings (Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM) | MIN -1.5 | MIN -118 / GB -102 | 45.5 |
| Dolphins at Raiders (Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM) | LV -3.5 | LV -198 / MIA +164 | 40.5 |
| Commanders at Eagles (Sun 9/13, 4:25 PM) | PHI -4.5 | PHI -205 / WAS +170 | 45.5 |
| Cowboys at Giants (Sun 9/13, 8:20 PM) | DAL -2.5 | DAL -148 / NYG +124 | 48.5 |
| Broncos at Chiefs (Mon 9/14, 8:15 PM) | KC -3 | KC -148 / DEN +124 | 42.5 |
Biggest Favorites
The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions are the biggest Week 1 favorites. The Chargers own the largest spread as a 10.5-point home favorite over Arizona, the Jaguars are laying 7.5 at home against Cleveland, and the Lions are giving a full touchdown to New Orleans at Ford Field. Philadelphia (-4.5 against Washington) is the only other team laying more than a field goal and a hook.
Tightest Matchups
Three games are priced inside a field goal with room to spare: Bills-Texans (Buffalo -1.5), Packers-Vikings (Minnesota -1.5) and Jets-Titans (Tennessee -1.5). The Bills-Texans and Packers-Vikings moneylines are close to coin flips, with Houston at -102 and Green Bay at -102 as the road “underdog” at DraftKings. In all, 12 of the 16 games carry a spread of 3.5 or less.
Highest Projected Scoring Games
Buccaneers-Bengals is the only Week 1 game with a total above 50, and it is barely there at 50.5 after opening the archive window at 51.5 in mid-August. Saints-Lions sits at 49.5, and three games are posted at 48.5: Ravens-Colts, 49ers-Rams and Cowboys-Giants. Nobody is expecting fireworks in September.
Lowest Projected Scoring Games
Jets-Titans is the lowest total on the board at 38.5, a matchup of two teams that went 3-14 in 2025 and have second-year quarterbacks (Cam Ward) or newly signed veterans (Geno Smith) under new or second-year head coaches. Dolphins-Raiders and Browns-Jaguars are next at 40.5 apiece.
What Has Moved Since the Week 1 Lines Opened
Most Week 1 numbers have barely budged, but four of them have, and three of those moves are toward the side I am backing. The table below compares the 10-book consensus in our own odds archive on August 13, 2026 (the first day we captured Week 1 lines) with the consensus on September 2, 2026. Book-count-weighted consensus lines can land on quarter points, so a 3.75 means the market is split between 3.5 and 4.
| Game | Aug 13 Consensus | Sept 2 Consensus | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills at Texans | Pick’em | HOU -1 | Toward Houston |
| Broncos at Chiefs | KC -3 | KC -2.5 | Toward Denver |
| Cardinals at Chargers | LAC -10.5 | LAC -10 | Toward Arizona |
| Browns at Jaguars | JAX -7.5 | JAX -8 | Toward Jacksonville |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | CIN -3.5, total 51.5 | CIN -4, total 50.5 | Toward Cincinnati, under |
| Cowboys at Giants | DAL -2.5 | DAL -3 | Toward Dallas |
| Saints at Lions | DET -7, total 49 | DET -7, total 50 | Over |
The Houston move is the one that matters most for this article, because it turned my Texans upset pick from a plus-money underdog into a coin flip. The Denver move is small but tells you the market has not punished the Broncos for a quarterback coming off ankle surgery. Line movement is interesting to analyze, not proof of anything, so treat these as context for the picks rather than a reason to bet on their own.
Where the Books Disagree on Week 1
Shopping the number matters more in Week 1 than in most weeks, because the regulated books are a full point apart on several games. The biggest gap is the Jaguars spread, where DraftKings and FanDuel still post -7.5 while BetRivers and Fanatics are at -8.5 and BetMGM sits at -8. Three other splits worth knowing about are below.
| Market | Best Number | Worst Number |
|---|---|---|
| Browns +7.5 to +8.5 | +8.5 (BetRivers, Fanatics) | +7.5 (DraftKings, FanDuel) |
| Packers spread | +1.5 (-110, BetMGM) | +0.5 (-109, BetRivers) |
| Cowboys spread | -2.5 (-115, DraftKings) | -3 (-108, BetMGM) |
| Buccaneers spread | +4.5 (-115, Fanatics) | +3.5 (-105, DraftKings) |
| Commanders spread | +5.5 (-115, FanDuel) | +4.5 (-110, DraftKings) |
Safest NFL Week 1 Favorites
Week 1 is volatile, and a slate this tightly priced makes it harder to find favorites worth the juice. Three still stand out, and one of them (Jacksonville) is the safest bet on the board by a wide margin. The win probabilities below are what the DraftKings moneyline implies once the vig is removed, a read on where the market sits rather than my own number.
| Favorite | DraftKings Line | Market-Implied Win % | 2025 Records |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars vs. Browns | -7.5 (-110) / ML -395 | 76.6% | JAX 13-4, CLE 5-12 |
| Cowboys at Giants | -2.5 (-115) / ML -148 | 57.2% | DAL 7-9-1, NYG 4-13 |
| Rams vs. 49ers (Melbourne) | -3.5 (-112) / ML -198 | 63.7% | LAR 12-5, SF 12-5 |
Jaguars -7.5 (-110) and Jaguars ML (-395)
Jacksonville is the top Week 1 favorite to back. Nobody gets excited about -395, but it is the safest moneyline on the slate, and the Jaguars also look like a strong bet to clear -7.5 at home against a Cleveland team that is being rebuilt again. The Browns have a new head coach in Todd Monken, named Deshaun Watson their Week 1 starter on August 24, and traded Myles Garrett to the Rams in June. Their season win total sits at 5.5.
The Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025, won the AFC South and were one Josh Allen touchdown drive from advancing, losing 27-24 to Buffalo in the wild-card round on January 11, 2026. That group returns mostly intact and with something to prove. The market agrees: the consensus spread has crept from 7.5 to 8 since mid-August. If you can still find -7.5 at DraftKings or FanDuel, take it, because two books are already at 8.5.
Cowboys ML (-148)
I think Dallas covers -2.5 at the Giants on Sunday night, but at -148 the moneyline is the cleaner play. Dak Prescott is on the road against an NFC East rival, and these games have a habit of staying closer than the talent gap suggests, so I would rather just need the win.
Dallas went 7-9-1 last year, but the roster looks different. The Cowboys spent the offseason rebuilding a defense that sank them in 2025, drafting safety Caleb Downs in the first round and trading for edge rusher Rashan Gary and linebacker Dee Winters. The Giants went 4-13, hired John Harbaugh away from Baltimore on January 20, 2026, and still have not confirmed whether Malik Nabers (torn ACL last season) will play in the opener. Consensus has moved from Dallas -2.5 to -3 since August 13, so the moneyline is also the way to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the key number.
Rams ML (-198)
The Rams are the best moneyline bet on the board at -198, all things considered. Los Angeles “hosts” the rival 49ers at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Thursday, September 10 (8:35 PM ET, Friday morning local time) in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Australia, and this is a team with real title aspirations. The Rams lost the NFC Championship Game 31-27 to Seattle in January, then went all-in by trading for Myles Garrett on June 2.
San Francisco is obvious value at +164, but somebody has to lose this game and the Rams have the better overall roster right now. The 49ers have to keep up with Matthew Stafford’s offense (Stafford dealt with a back issue in camp but is expected to start) while also blocking Garrett under the lights in a brand-new environment. One caveat: Puka Nacua’s availability is still unsettled between a camp soft-tissue issue and a pending league discipline review. If he is ruled out, the -3.5 gets harder to trust, which is another reason to stick with the moneyline here.
Best NFL Week 1 Picks Against the Spread
Moneylines can be gross. Either they are traps or you overpay for perceived safety. There is value in the favorites above, but on a slate this tight, the spread is often the better tool. Here are my three favorite Week 1 NFL picks against the spread.
Saints +7 (-110)
New Orleans projects to be a fun team in 2026, and the same goes for Detroit. Winning at Ford Field will not be easy (and I am not predicting it), but this Saints team is equipped to give the Lions a scare and stay inside the number.
Detroit still has to prove it is the team that started 7-4 last season and not the one that finished 2-4, missed the playoffs and landed last in the NFC North at 9-8. The offense can bury anyone, but the defense allowed 24.8 points per game in 2025, 23rd in the league, and that side of the ball has not been fixed on paper. Meanwhile, Tyler Shough took over for New Orleans in November and went 5-4 as the starter, and Kellen Moore has committed to him as the 2026 starter. Add in a total that has climbed from 49 to 50 in our archive, and a shootout that keeps the Saints within a touchdown is the read.
Cardinals +10.5 (-110)
I am not comparing the Cardinals to the Saints. Arizona went 3-14, cut Kyler Murray, and will start Jacoby Brissett in Week 1. But the Cardinals did get better where it counts for a double-digit dog: new head coach Mike LaFleur brings the Rams’ offensive scheme, and the No. 3 overall pick, running back Jeremiyah Love, gives that offense a player who can shorten games.
The Chargers went 11-6 last year and then scored three points in a wild-card loss to New England. They enter Week 1 with a patched-together offensive line: center Tyler Biadasz is dealing with a major knee injury, guard Branson Taylor is on injured reserve, and Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are both coming back from injuries that ended their 2025 seasons. If this spread were closer to seven, I would lean Los Angeles. At 10.5, the value is with Arizona, and the market has already trimmed the consensus from 10.5 to 10 since mid-August. DraftKings still has the full 10.5.
Packers +1.5 (-118) or Packers ML (+100)
A month ago this looked like a Packers-as-road-favorite play. Today the Vikings are the 1.5-point favorite after Kevin O’Connell named Kyler Murray his Week 1 starter, and I like Green Bay more at the new price. You can take the Packers +1.5 at DraftKings or the moneyline at even money at FanDuel or BetMGM.
Parsons tore his ACL on December 14, 2025 at Denver and opens 2026 on the physically-unable-to-perform list, which costs him a minimum of four games. His first eligible return is Week 5 against Chicago on October 11, and he has pointed to Week 6 against Dallas as the realistic target. The Packers’ pass rush without him is the biggest reason this is a small bet rather than a big one.
Green Bay will be without Micah Parsons, and that is real. It is why this is not a bigger bet. But Minnesota is on its second quarterback plan in two years. Murray was released by Arizona in March and beat out J.J. McCarthy in camp, and McCarthy has since been dealing with an ankle sprain. The 2025 series split 1-1, but the Packers’ 23-6 win came with both teams at full strength, while Minnesota’s 16-3 win in the finale came against a Green Bay lineup resting starters after clinching a wild-card spot. Matt LaFleur is 4-3 in season openers, so the “slow start” reputation is more myth than trend. A near pick’em against a division rival on a new quarterback is a price I will take.
Top NFL Week 1 Upset Picks
Full disclosure: NFL underdog picks are not easy to hit, and there is a lot of variance in these bets. But the value is the value, and three teams have a clear path to winning outright in Week 1. Shop these three especially hard, because the regulated books are a few cents apart on each one and the market has already moved on two of them.
| Underdog | DraftKings ML | Best Price on the Panel | Market-Implied Win % | Consensus Since Aug 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans vs. Bills | -102 | -102 (DraftKings, BetMGM) | 48.3% | Pick’em to HOU -1 |
| Broncos at Chiefs | +124 | +125 (Fanatics) | 42.8% | KC -3 to KC -2.5 |
| Falcons at Steelers | +145 | +145 (DraftKings, Fanatics) | 39.1% | PIT -3 unchanged |
Texans ML (-102)
Houston is barely an underdog anymore. When Week 1 lines opened this was a pick’em, and the consensus has since moved to Texans -1, so at DraftKings you are getting Houston at -102 to beat Josh Allen and the Bills rather than the plus money that was available a month ago. Fanatics already has the Texans as a one-point favorite. I still like Houston at this price, because the case has not changed.
The Texans beat Buffalo 23-19 on Thursday night last November 20, sacking Allen eight times and holding him without a touchdown pass before picking him off to end it. Houston finished 2025 with the fewest yards allowed per game in the league (277.2), with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter leading a pass rush that can wreck a game plan. Losing receiver Jayden Higgins to a torn ACL in August hurts the offense, but this bet is about the defense at home, and that unit is intact.
Broncos ML (+124)
Denver is the best underdog on the board at +124. The Broncos have to go on the road on Monday night, but they draw a familiar AFC West opponent in Kansas City, and they were the better team last year by a wide margin.
Denver went 14-3, won the division and earned the AFC’s top seed, then lost the AFC Championship Game 10-7 to New England with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback after Bo Nix fractured his ankle in the divisional round. Nix had surgery in January, practiced fully through camp and is expected to start. Kansas City went 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL on December 14 and has been cleared to start, but he needs his mobility against a Denver pass rush that led the NFL with 68 sacks last season, 14 of them from Nik Bonitto. The line has already moved from Chiefs -3 to -2.5, and I think the market is right to keep leaning Denver’s way.
Falcons ML (+145)
My last Week 1 underdog is Atlanta to go into Pittsburgh and beat Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers at +145, a better price than the +120 that was available a month ago. Pittsburgh won the AFC North last year at 10-7, then got run out of its own wild-card game 30-6 by Houston. Mike Tomlin stepped down the next day, Mike McCarthy took over, and Rodgers is back on a one-year deal for what he has said is likely his final season.
The Falcons are under new direction too. Kevin Stefanski inherits an offense with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, who re-signed for three years and $54 million this offseason. The open question is quarterback: Michael Penix Jr. was cleared for full team work on August 22 after last November’s ACL tear and is the expected starter over Tua Tagovailoa, but Stefanski had not made it official as of late August. Check the announcement before you bet. If Penix starts, Atlanta has more talent on the field than Pittsburgh, and a surprise 1-0 start would not be shocking.
Best NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool Pick
- Jaguars over the Browns (-395 moneyline)
Want one Week 1 pick to rule them all? If you are in an NFL survivor pool, you just need the one that will not fail, and in Week 1 there is no reason to get cute. Jacksonville is at home, is the better team by a mile, and will be motivated after a 13-4 season ended in a three-point playoff loss. The Chargers at -550 are the only bigger favorite, but I would rather save Los Angeles for a week when you need it. If you want the strategy behind that call, our guide to NFL survivor pool strategy covers when to burn a big favorite and when to hold one.
Best NFL Week 1 Parlay
- Jaguars -7.5 (-110)
- Rams ML (-198)
- Bears ML (-162)
- Buccaneers vs. Bengals Over 50.5 (-118)
- Cowboys ML (-148)
At the current DraftKings prices, a $100 wager on this five-leg Week 1 NFL parlay would return about $1,439 (roughly +1339). A month ago the same ticket paid closer to $1,637, because the Rams, Bears and Cowboys have all shortened since then and the Bucs-Bengals total has dropped from 52.5 to 50.5. Shop the legs: the Bears are -2.5 favorites at Carolina after going 11-6, winning the NFC North and beating Green Bay in the wild-card round, while the Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 and lost their playoff opener to the Rams. The Cowboys leg is the same moneyline I like on its own above.
The point stands: these are my favorite Week 1 bets, and stringing them together is a way to swing for a big number with a small stake. Mix and match if you like, but keep the parlay money small. Five legs at these prices is a long shot no matter how much you like each one.
Final NFL Week 1 Predictions
Here is a pick against the spread and a straight-up winner for all 16 Week 1 games, using the DraftKings lines from September 2, 2026. Confidence is my read on the spread pick, not a stake recommendation.
| Game | Spread Pick | Moneyline Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots at Seahawks | Seahawks -3.5 | Seahawks | Medium |
| 49ers vs. Rams (Melbourne) | Rams -3.5 | Rams | High |
| Falcons at Steelers | Falcons +3 | Falcons | Medium |
| Ravens at Colts | Ravens -3.5 | Ravens | Medium |
| Bills at Texans | Texans +1.5 | Texans | Medium |
| Bears at Panthers | Bears -2.5 | Bears | High |
| Buccaneers at Bengals | Bengals -3.5 | Bengals | High |
| Browns at Jaguars | Jaguars -7.5 | Jaguars | High |
| Saints at Lions | Saints +7 | Lions | Medium |
| Jets at Titans | Titans -1.5 | Titans | Low |
| Cardinals at Chargers | Cardinals +10.5 | Chargers | Low |
| Packers at Vikings | Packers +1.5 | Packers | Medium |
| Dolphins at Raiders | Raiders -3.5 | Raiders | Low |
| Commanders at Eagles | Commanders +4.5 | Eagles | Medium |
| Cowboys at Giants | Cowboys -2.5 | Cowboys | High |
| Broncos at Chiefs | Broncos +3 | Broncos | Medium |
How to Bet Week 1 NFL Games Without Getting Burned
Bet the individual plays, keep the parlay money small, and re-check every number the morning of the game. Value is subjective, and how you bet the NFL and how you feel about certain teams will decide how much of this advice you take. What is not subjective is that Week 1 lines move on injury reports that do not exist yet, so a price you like today can be gone by Sunday.
Puka Nacua (Rams, availability unsettled for Melbourne), Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons, expected starter but not announced as of late August) and Malik Nabers (Giants, not yet confirmed for Week 1 after his ACL tear). Each one changes the read on a pick above, so wait for the official word before locking in the Rams, Falcons or Cowboys bets.
My suggestion is to target the individual bets first and treat the parlay as a small entertainment stake. Stay on top of the news through the week, because the ability to hedge a Week 1 bet later is one of the few advantages of getting in early. You can track every Week 1 line across the regulated books on our live NFL odds board, and if you are still choosing where to place these bets, our rundown of the best football betting sites compares the books quoted in this article.
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Frequently Asked Questions
These are the questions I get most often about betting the NFL’s opening week, answered with the September 2, 2026 numbers. Prices will move as kickoff approaches, so treat them as a snapshot.
What are the best NFL Week 1 picks against the spread right now?
My three favorites are the Saints +7 at Detroit, the Cardinals +10.5 at the Chargers and the Packers +1.5 at Minnesota. New Orleans and Arizona both have enough offense to keep their games inside the number, and Green Bay is a near pick’em on the road against a division rival that just switched to Kyler Murray at quarterback.
Which NFL Week 1 favorite is the safest bet if I only want to place one?
The Jaguars at home against the Browns. Jacksonville is -395 on the moneyline and -7.5 on the spread at DraftKings, and the consensus number has moved toward the Jaguars since mid-August. The Chargers are a bigger favorite at -550, but I would rather save them for a later survivor week.
What is the best NFL Week 1 upset pick this year?
The Broncos at +124 in Kansas City on Monday night. Denver went 14-3 last season and led the NFL with 68 sacks, while the Chiefs went 6-11 and are opening with Patrick Mahomes nine months removed from ACL and LCL surgery. The Texans at -102 against Buffalo are the other one I like, though the market has already moved them from plus money to a coin flip.
Which NFL Week 1 games should I stay away from?
Jets-Titans and Dolphins-Raiders. Both games feature teams that won three games in 2025, both totals are 40.5 or lower, and both spreads are inside a field goal. They read like pure coin flips without a strong lean either way, so I put both in the Low confidence tier on the predictions table.
When should I place my NFL Week 1 bets, now or closer to kickoff?
Now is fine for the numbers you like, as long as you accept the price could move against you or in your favor before Sunday. Injury reports do not start until the week of the game, so anything tied to a specific player (Puka Nacua, Michael Penix Jr., Malik Nabers) is worth waiting on. Everything else comes down to whether the current number is one you would be happy holding if it moves.
