Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots Prediction & Best Bets (January 11th, 2026)
The New England Patriots will be mild 3.5-point home favorites when they play host to the Los Angeles Chargers this weekend. Drake Maye continues to add to his NFL MVP campaign, as he tries to push the Pats to the second round in his first taste of postseason action.
L.A. comes in with more playoff experience and a fairly battle-tested team after playing in the AFC West, but they have the worst record, and they backed into the playoffs after losing their last two games.
The Bolts also have systemic issues given their offensive line struggles, while head coach Jim Harbaugh searches for his first playoff victory with the franchise. The same can be said for Mike Vrabel on the other side, as he’s led New England to a 14-3 record and #2 seed in his first year on the job.
It’s a surprisingly tight spread for a battle between the 2-seed and 7-seed in the AFC, which makes you wonder if the Pats side of things is severely discounted. Of course, a closer look is often required, so I will analyze the odds and key matchups to get you the best bets for this game, as well as a final Chargers vs. Patriots prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, January 11th, 2026 | Kickoff at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Team records entering the game:
- Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
- New England Patriots: 14-3
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Chargers +3.5 (-110) | Patriots -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chargers (+164) | Patriots (-196)
- Total: Over 45.5 (-114) | Under 45.5 (-106)
The spread is a lot tighter than you’d expect, considering the seed gap and New England’s home-field edge. This suggests a lack of confidence in Drake Maye, given the fact that this is the first playoff game of his career.
The game total is standard. Both defenses are solid, but the offenses have a lot of explosive playmakers. It’s priced in a funky spot, however, making a pick tough to gauge.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this Chargers vs. Patriots Wild Card showdown:
- Baptism by Fire: Drake Maye cooked all season long, but this weekend, he could get exposed in his first-ever NFL playoff game.
- Off-Field Scandal: The Pats could be distracted by an ongoing situation involving Stefon Diggs. He’s free to play, but allegations hang over the team like a dark cloud.
- Nothing to Lose: The Chargers have a lot working against them, but they are still well-coached and have plenty of talent. As the 7-seed, they have no expectations, which means they can play free and relaxed.
- Wild Card: The old playoff format saw two 6-seeds win it all in the past. At some point, a 7-seed may follow suit. Could the Chargers be that team?
Team Profiles
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been a solid team all year. They’ve had their moments of weakness, but just two weeks ago, they were still alive for the AFC West and the #1 seed in the conference.
Justin Herbert has been banged up, and the team is definitely missing stud offensive tackle Joe Alt, but the offense remains dynamic and explosive. L.A. has some serious bite defensively, too, giving them a balanced squad that is not easy to knock off.
Herbert and Co. have not had much success in the playoffs, with the Chargers’ QB tossing four picks in a brutal implosion last year. This game provides an opportunity to erase that awful outing and give the Bolts a shot at a deep playoff run, however.
While not likely, there are some key areas where the Chargers excelled that gives them a chance to stage the upset. Let’s take a look at what those are:
- Balanced Attack: The Chargers are not elite offensively, but they’re solid both on the ground and through the air. They have a solid 4.4 yards per carry average (13th) and put up 121 yards per game on the ground (12th), while they rank 18th in passing. When they put everything together, that can be tough to stop, but consistency has not been a strong suit.
- Bend, Don’t Break: L.A. is solid defensively, as they only allow 20 points per game (9th), and they are fairly stingy against both the pass and the run. Where they truly excel, however, is in the red zone. Opponents only score inside the 20 46% of the time, giving them the 4th-best RZ defense in football.
- Under Pressure: The Chargers lost Joey Bosa this offseason, but it didn’t hurt their pass rush. Tuli Tuipolutu (13 sacks) spearheads an explosive pass rush that boasts an elite 8.1% sack rate (6th).
New England Patriots
The Patriots have looked like the best team in the NFL at times this year. At no point did they really look fraudulent, either, while this has not been a season that lacked marquee wins.
New England went 14-3 during the regular season, claiming the AFC West division crown and narrowly missing out on the top seed in the AFC. Each of their three losses came by just one score, while big wins over the likes of the Ravens and Bills help show they’re legit.
It’s worth arguing that they didn’t have the most difficult matchup, while second-year quarterback Drake Maye has yet to appear in the playoffs. Only time will tell how he performs, but he’s at home and has looked fantastic all year long.
If Maye plays like he can, the Pats are borderline locks to advance to the second round. They’ve also excelled in some key areas, so before we make the call, let’s see where they’ve stood out the most this season:
- Air Assault: Drake Maye leads the most explosive passing attack in pro football. He’s put up MVP-type numbers all year, as the Pats average 8.9 yards per pass (1st) and put up over 250 yards through the air per contest (4th). Maye also leads the most accurate passing attack in the NFL and owns a 1.5% interception rate (9th).
- Ground Control: New England also can run the ball at an elite level. Rhamondre Stevenson gives them a balanced back, while TreVeyon Henderson is their home run hitter. The Pats aren’t elite on a per carry basis, but they rank 4th in rushing scores and own the 6th best overall ground game.
- Stop the Run: The mark of a great defense is one that can stop the run, and the Pats can do that at a high level. They’re closer to average on a per carry basis (13th), but they don’t allow a lot of volume, ranking 6th against the run and 4th in rushing TDs allowed.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Chargers vs. Patriots matchups:
- Patriots rushing offense vs. Chargers run defense: New England likes to run the ball, and they’re pretty good at it. The Bolts have been solid against the run, but on a per carry basis (18th) they appear to be quite beatable. If New England runs on them it’s probably game over.
- Patriots passing game vs. Chargers pass rush: This is the biggest edge potential for L.A., as they do have a scary pass rush and the Pats thrive on big plays down the field. That pass rush plays into big play prevention (8th) and a strong overall pass defense (5th). Plus, the Pats allow an 8.7% sack rate (26th).
- Chargers passing offense vs. Patriots pass defense: The Bolts are balanced, but they better excel somewhere. My guess is due to their explosive passing game weapons, that’s their best bet, especially given New England’s middling pass rush and strong run defense. If the Chargers can move the ball through the air, they’ll hang around.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Chargers vs. Patriots odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Chargers | +3.5 (-112) | +154 | Over 46.5 (-105) |
Patriots | -3.5 (-108) | -185 | Under 46.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is all over the Patriots (80%) on the moneyline as well as the spread (67%).
- Record History: The Chargers and Patriots have faced off 36 times in history, with New England holding a commanding 27-17-2 series lead. The Chargers have won the last two meetings, however, and beat the Pats 40-7 last year in Foxborough.
- ATS Tidbits: L.A. has been average (8-8-1) against the spread, but they’re 3-1 ATS as the underdog. The Pats have been fantastic (11-5-1) against the spread, going 7-3-1 ATS when favored.
Best Bets for Chargers vs. Patriots
Pick 1: Patriots ML (-196) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This isn’t the most alluring bet in terms of price, but it’s under -200, and it’s probably the safest. The spread stinks, and I do think the Chargers hang around. New England is the better team at home, though, so look for them to get the win.
Risks/What to Watch
The biggest issue is the price, so be sure to shop around at the best sports betting sites before pulling the trigger. L.A. could obviously win, too, but I don’t see the upset happening.
Pick 2: Under 45.5 (-106) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Both defenses are pretty solid, and the Chargers can struggle on offense at times. L.A.’s pass rush could slow the Pats down enough to keep this interesting. Given the high stakes and intensity of the playoffs, I love the Under.
Risks/What to Watch
New England did average over 28 points per game on the year, so they can get us to the Over almost on their own. The risk is if they explode here.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+140) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Stevenson shares the workload with Hendo, nabbing nine total scores this year in just 14 games. He’s been red hot lately (6 TDs in his last three games), and the Chargers cough up 0.9 rushing scores per game (16th).
Risks/What to Watch
Stevenson’s role could always shrink, as he does have a history of fumbling issues. Perhaps Henderson scores or New England finds the end zone through the air.
Chargers vs. Patriots odds continue to shift as bettors react to spread swings and total movement — monitor every line change, compare prices, and lock in the best value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Pats Live Up to Hype, Advance to Divisional Round
The Chargers are not your normal 7-seed. They had a real shot at their division and the top seed in the conference, so this is a tough game for the Pats. New England is the better team, and they have the edge in some key areas, though, so my Chargers vs. Patriots prediction is that Drake Maye and co. advance.
If I had to bet the spread, I’d roll with the Chargers, but it’s a dicey line that has me just going with the Pats straight up. This figures to be more of a defensive battle, too, so I am gravitating toward the Under.
Stevenson has also been involved in the Patriots’ offense in a big way lately, so getting him at plus money to score feels like a steal.
Ultimately, this is New England’s game to lose. The spread is tight, and the game should be close, but they’ve been the better team all season and have the benefit of playing at home.
Final Score Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Los Angeles Chargers 24
