California vs. Hawaii Prediction & NCAAF Betting Picks (December 24, 2025)
The California Golden Bears and Hawaii Rainbow Warriors face off in the 2025 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl on Wednesday night, with Hawaii coming in as a 1.5-point favorite.
Both teams enjoyed solid 2025 campaigns, with Hawaii having the better record at 8-4 and having a solid 5-3 run in the Mountain West. California went 7-5 overall, but weren’t quite as good inside the ACC (4-4).
California is feeling good after edging out SMU in a thrilling 38-35 showdown, while Hawaii also comes in off a win after downing Wyoming easily, 27-7.
Which side will stay hot and finish the season strong, and what are the best bets for this game? I’ll help you figure all of that out as I go over the odds and key matchups on my way to a final California vs. Hawaii prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: California Golden Bears (7-5) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8-4)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, December 24th, with kickoff at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, HI
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Team Record
- California is 7-5, 4-4 in the ACC.
- Hawaii is 8-4, 5-3 in the Mountain West.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest California vs. Hawaii odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
California | +1.5 (-110) | -102 | Over 50.5 (-115) |
Hawaii | -1.5 (-110) | -118 | Under 50.5 (-105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
Hawaii and Cal have only played each other five times in school history. California holds a slight 3-2 edge in the series, winning the most recent battle (51-31) in 2016.
There isn’t anything to take away from recent history in this series, but Hawaii does have the benefit of playing at home. This game will be played at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, but it’s still in Hawaii.
Hawaii has just one loss at home on the year, while Cal has lost three games on the road.
Why This Game Matters
This is the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, so the winner can end their season on a high note and get a trophy. This game has special meaning for Hawaii, naturally, so they may have added incentive to get the win.
Team Profiles
California Golden Bears
The Golden Bears don’t have a record that blows you away at first glance, but they’ve had a rock-solid season. They got off to a nice 3-0 start initially, but got shutout 34-0 by San Diego State in their fourth game of the year.
Cal was able to rebound with a 28-24 win against Boston College, but they got smashed (45-21) by Duke in their next game. They scored solid wins over North Carolina, Louisville, and SMU down the stretch, but also got embarrassed by Stanford and lost by 10 to Virginia.
This team is a tough out when everything is clicking on offense, but their defense has let them down routinely. California has allowed 30+ points six times on the year and have gone 1-5 in those instances.
Cal has done a lot of good, however, and there’s a reason they are light 1.5-point road dogs.
Here’s a quick look at what’s made them stand out this year:
- Pass Happy: California has to find success through the air, as it’s their main offensive strength by quite a lot. They pass at will, putting the ball in the air 58% of the time (7th highest pass rate), but they’re also quite effective, ranking 24th in total passing.
- Stop the Pass: Despite having an up-tempo offense, the Golden Bears do a decent job against the pass on the other side of the ball. They rank 33rd against the pass and limit big plays (34th), and they do this despite having a middling pass rush.
- Bend, Don’t Break: Cal does not have a good defense, but they do a respectable job when teams threaten inside the 20. They allow a score at an 82% clip, which ranks inside the top-50 in college football.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
The Rainbow Warriors appear to be the better team on paper when compared to California. They have one more win, fared better in their conference, and offer slightly better resistance on defense.
Much like Cal, the Rainbow Warriors want to throw the ball (a ton), but they’re simply better at it. They use that passing game to put up a lot of points, and for the most part, that’s allowed them to win shootouts or simply blow teams away.
That one-dimensional approach has gotten them into trouble a few times, of course, as they got absolutely smoked (40-6) by Arizona in week two and didn’t come close to taking down UNLV (38-10) two games ago.
This team still has a lot going for it. Here’s a quick look at where they’ve excelled this season:
- Finish the Job: Hawaii moves the ball at will through the air, but they are also unstoppable once they get inside the 20. The Rainbow Warriors convert at an insane 94.2% clip, giving them the 2nd-best red-zone offense in the college ranks.
- Air Assault: Few teams are as productive as Hawaii through the air. Micah Alejado guides a unit that passes at the 5th highest rate in college, but they’re also very efficient, sporting the 38th most accurate passing game and also generating 7.2 yards per pass. Their 7th overall rank tells you this is one passing offense not to be trifled with.
- Pressure Up Front: While their defense is far from elite, Hawaii does know how to generate pressure on that side of the ball. They own a nice 7.5% sack rate, which is the 28th best in the nation.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key California vs. Hawaii matchups:
- California’s passing offense vs. Hawaii’s pass rush: Both teams want to throw the ball and are good at it, but between the two, Cal’s matchup is actually a bit suspect. Hawaii can generate pressure on the QB, while they aren’t terrible (62nd) against the pass as a whole.
- Hawaii’s rush offense vs. California’s run defense: The Rainbow Warriors don’t run the ball much, but they could get a big boost against a Cal defense that coughs up 3.9 yards per carry (111th) and allows over 171 rushing yards per contest.
- Hawaii’s RZ offense vs. California’s RZ defense: One of the few bright spots on Cal’s defense is their ability to sometimes slow teams down inside the 20. I doubt they find a lot of success against the 2nd-best RZ offense in college football, however.
Betting Insights & Trends
California has not been great (5-7) against the spread, while they are 4-3 ATS as the underdog and 2-2 ATS outside of conference play.
Hawaii has been much better (8-3) against the spread this year, while they are undefeated (3-0) ATS when favored and 2-1 ATS in non-conference games.
California may be tougher to trust than usual, as they fired their head coach recently and will have an interim coach in place.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top California vs. Hawaii picks:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 50.5 (-115) | Both offenses push the pace and can put up a decent amount of points, while both defenses give up over 25 points per game. Given the pace, offensive aptitude, and weak defensive play, the Over is an obvious choice. | 8/10 |
Hawaii ML (-118) | The Rainbow Warriors are basically playing a home game and have the better team across the board. The fact that we can get them at -118 to win this game is a bit silly. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 50.5 (-115)
- Secondary Pick: Hawaii ML (-118)
This game is destined to hit the Over. Both offenses want to play up-tempo games and throw the ball, while both defenses stink. All things considered, this game total feels a bit tame.
California is a decent team, but Hawaii beats them at their own game and has a slightly more impactful defense. This is also virtually a home game for them, so the Rainbow Warriors feel like an easy pick.
California vs. Hawaii odds are on the move as bettors track a potential bowl shootout — monitor line changes, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football can be tough to predict. Here’s why my California vs. Hawaii betting picks could falter:
- Below Expectation: Everything sets up for a shootout with some points, but Cal’s offense is a lot less easier to trust than Hawaii’s. In addition, the Rainbow Warriors could opt to exploit California’s weak run defense, which would lead to a slower game.
- Upset Special: On the flip side, Cal is still a solid team that has performed well on the year. The pricing indicates this one is a close call, so California gutting out a win wouldn’t be that crazy.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Hawaii 38, California 34
There are not any prop bets available for this game yet, but given the way these teams play, I’d imagine hitting the Over on passing and receiving props makes a lot of sense.
That gives way to the most obvious California vs. Hawaii prediction; this game is going to be a shootout, and it should feature plenty of points. Hawaii puts up 29 points per game, and both of these defenses allow 25+ points per game.
Nothing about either defense stands out at a high level, while neither offense is all that interested in running the football (or any good at it). Translation: the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl is going to be a fun watch, and the flow of this game is understandably going to favor the Rainbow Warriors.
