Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Best Bets (Sunday, January 11th, 2026)
The Buffalo Bills dream of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the first time ever, but if they’re going to make it happen this year, they’ll need to start by knocking off the white hot Jaguars in Jacksonville.
DraftKings has Buffalo as 1.5-point favorites to do just that, even though they’re on the road and Jacksonville won the AFC South. However, the Bills won almost as many games this year, while betting against Josh Allen is never a fun activity.
Allen has yet to lead his Bills to the promised land, but this could easily be their year since their kryptonite – the Kansas City Chiefs – are no longer standing in their way. Still, the line is tight and Buffalo has to take it to the road to advance.
So, which side is the better bet? I’ve got you covered, as I’ll scan the latest odds and key matchups, while highlighting my preferred picks and handing out a final Bills vs. Jaguars prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, January 11th, 2026 | Kickoff at 12:00 (1:00 pm ET) at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL
- Team records entering the game:
- Buffalo Bills: 12-5
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 13-4
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (+102) | Jaguars +1.5 (-122)
- Moneyline: Bills (-112) | Jaguars (-108)
- Total: Over 51.5 (-112) | Under 51.5 (-108)
Buffalo is favored to win this game despite finishing the year with a worse record and playing on the road. That plays into their playoff experience and the fact that Josh Allen is a tough quarterback to bet against with any amount of confidence.
This is a high game total for a playoff game. Both teams have very good offenses, however, while Buffalo’s defense is suspect. This pricing suggests a shootout, which, on paper, looks to be quite possible.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this Bills vs. Jaguars Wild Card showdown:
- This is the Year: The Bills seem to have a team built to win on a yearly basis, but they keep coming up short. A big road win to start the playoffs could instill belief that this may finally be the year they win it all.
- Time to Shine: Jacksonville, on the other hand, has risen to new heights under first-year head coach Liam Coen. He’s turned Trevor Lawrence into an elite quarterback, helping the Jags claim the AFC South and look like a serious contender.
- Red Hot: The Jaguars come into this game ablaze, winning each of their last eight games. They haven’t lost since November 9th and have put up 23+ points in every single game during their current run.
- Fireworks: This game features two absurdly potent offenses. Buffalo scores 28.3 points per game (3rd), while the Jaguars score 27.9 per game (6th), setting up the foundation for an explosive shootout.
Team Profiles
Buffalo Bills
The Bills looked like the best team in the NFL during a 4-0 start earlier this year. They seemed to grow complacent at times, with an early-season loss to the Atlanta Falcons standing out as a particularly troubling defeat.
Overall, this was still one of the league’s top-tier teams, as they can match wits with anyone on offense, while dual-threat quarterback Josh Allen keeps defenses guessing at all times.
Buffalo’s major shortcomings have come on the defensive side of the football and in late-game execution. Three of their four losses were to fellow playoff teams and were also by one score. If they can get out of their own way, however, the Bills are an awfully tough team to beat.
Before I decide if they can win this game, let’s take a quick look at where they’ve stood out the most on the season:
- Ground Control: Nobody runs the football better than the Bills. Josh Allen is an extension of the ground game, but James Cook has also been sensational for an offense that leads the league in rushes per game, rushing yards per game, and rushing touchdowns per game. They’re also quite explosive on the ground, averaging 5.0 yards per carry (2nd).
- Splash Plays: Buffalo can spring big plays on the ground, but they’re about as good at doing it through the air, too. Josh Allen quarterbacks the league’s 2nd most accurate passing attack, but it’s also one of the best at gaining chunk yardage. Buffalo’s passing game ranks 15th overall, but averages 8.0 yards per pass, giving them the 3rd best average in the NFL.
- Defend the Pass: Buffalo’s defense is not elite due to a defensive line that struggles to stop the run, but their pass defense is fantastic. The Bills own the league’s top-ranked pass defense, and a big reason why is their rock-solid pass rush (14th). That helps them contain passing games down the field, as they allow just 6.2 yards per pass (4th) and also rank 8th in interceptions forced.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have enjoyed a magical season in Liam Coen’s first year on the job. The former Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator has broadened the horizons for Trevor Lawrence and this offense, morphing a brutal 4-13 team of a year ago into a 13-4 division winner.
Lawrence has really upped his game over the past two months, as he leads an incredibly dynamic offense that is tough to slow down both on the ground and through the air. The Jags didn’t always look like the title threat they appear to be now, but they won eight straight games after a 5-4 start and now could be poised for a deep playoff run.
Buffalo is no small task, of course, so a Jaguars win is far from a given. Before making the call on their fate in this contest, here’s a quick look at where they’ve thrived the most:
- Pass Attack: T-Law and co. are at their best through the air. Lawrence has evolved into a consistently elite passer in the second half of the season, putting up 7.2 yards per pass (11th) as he’s guided the league’s 12th-best passing attack overall.
- Stop the Run: The Jaguars don’t necessarily have an elite defense overall, but they are very tough on the run. Jacksonville only allows 3.9 yards per carry (5th) and ranks 1st in yards allowed per game (85.6) on the ground.
- Finish the Job: The Jags don’t rank amongst the elite offenses in every category, but they know how to finish inside the 20. Jacksonville’s dynamic offense features scoring machines in Lawrence and Travis Etienne, who combine for the NFL’s 10th-best RZ offense.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Bills vs. Jaguars matchups:
- Buffalo’s rushing offense vs. Jacksonville’s run defense: This is easily the key to the game. Josh Allen and James Cook are a pretty tough duo to stop, but they’re on the road against the NFL’s best overall run defense. Buffalo will still find some level of success since this is what they do best, but exactly how much will decide the outcome of this game.
- Jacksonville’s passing offense vs. Buffalo’s pass defense: This is almost as important for the other side, as the Jags pass the ball 55% of the time and rely on big plays down the field. Buffalo is one of the better defensive units at limiting explosive passing plays, while they’re literally the best pass defense in pro football by the numbers.
- Turnover Battle: The turnover margin edge definitely lies with the Jaguars. Josh Allen is notorious for turnover blunders, so he needs to be a bit less reckless against the third-best team in turnover margin.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Bills vs. Jaguars odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Bills | -1.5 (+102) | -112 | Over 51.5 (-112) |
Jaguars | +1.5 (-122) | -108 | Under 51.5 (-108) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is favoring the Jags at home so far, with Jacksonville getting 63% of the bets heading into this Wild Card tilt.
- Record History: The Bills and Jaguars have faced off just 20 times in history. They have split the series (10-10) right down the middle, though, with Buffalo winning the most recent showdown last year, 47-10.
- ATS Tidbits: Buffalo hasn’t been amazing (8-9) against the spread, while they are just 4-4 ATS on the road and 6-9 ATS as the favorite. Jacksonville (12-5) has been far more impressive against the spread, going 5-3 ATS as the underdog and 7-1 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Bills vs. Jaguars
Pick 1: Bills ML (-112) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Bills are the better team across the board. Jacksonville is on fire, but if the Bills avoid mistakes and stick to their game plan, they should advance.
Risks/What to Watch
Buffalo is on the road, and the Jags are very good at limiting and forcing turnovers. If the Bills come out and play sloppy football, Jax could win its 9th game in a row.
Pick 2: Over 51.5 (-112) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This is a high game total for a playoff game, but both offenses are top-10 in scoring and are incredibly dynamic. The defenses are just OK, too, so a shootout is a solid bet.
Risks/What to Watch
Both defenses still excel in one area, providing potential matchup problems. It’s also simply a high over/under, which creates inherent risk.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-135) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Josh Allen is a scoring machine, and the season is on the line in a game with a 52.5 total. He’s scored 14 times on the ground this year, making his -135 price tag feel like a steal.
Risks/What to Watch
Jacksonville is especially tough on the road, and this is a road game. The Bills could obviously struggle on the ground, and touchdowns are, by nature, volatile.
Bills vs. Jaguars odds keep changing as bettors react to spread flips and a rising total — track every line move, compare markets, and lock in the best betting value before kickoff at our top-rated football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Bills Keep Super Bowl Dream Alive, Beat Jags
This might be the best overall game of the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. My top Bills vs. Jaguars prediction is that Buffalo gets the win, followed closely by the Over. The game total is high, and both defenses have clear advantages, but the offenses are so dynamic that I think we get a shootout.
Buffalo is still the better team, though, and if they can’t run the table this year and win the franchise’s first-ever title, when can they? This has to be the most wide-open the NFL has ever been, and for some reason, a still very good Bills team is going completely overlooked.
The Jaguars are good, and they’ll put up a fight, but give me the Bills in a shootout. Josh Allen won’t find easy running lanes, but the price on his rushing touchdown prop is obscene given the stakes at hand.
Final Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 30, Jacksonville Jaguars 27
