Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction & Top Picks (December 28th, 2025)
The Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers were headed for a massive clash on Sunday Night Football this week. It’s no longer quite as big as it could have been, as the Bears have clinched the NFC North division.
Of course, Chicago does still have a slim shot at claiming the top seed in the NFC, so if that holds true through Sunday’s slate of games, SNF could deliver a real banger.
Right now, the Bears are priced as mild 3.5-point road underdogs, but there’s not a ton separating them and the Niners. Both teams are at the very worst in position to win their respective divisions, while both are in play for the #1 seed at the time of this writing.
With an incentive to win as clear as day, we should have a hard-fought battle of teams with identical records in the Bay Area. But who will win? Let’s inspect the odds and key matchups to iron out the best bets and a final Bears vs. 49ers prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, December 28th, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:20 pm (8:20 pm ET) at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA
- Team records entering the game:
- Chicago Bears: 11-4
- San Francisco 49ers: 11-4
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Bears +3.5 (-118) | 49ers -3.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Bears (+160) | 49ers (-190)
- Total: Over 52.5 (-15) | Under 52.5 (-115)
This is a tight spread, which makes complete sense considering these teams share the same record and both have a lot to play for. The 49ers are the logical favorites at home, but the three-point spread shows respect to a hot Chicago team.
The total is interesting, but again pretty on point. Chicago’s defense can force turnovers, but it’s not an imposing unit overall. San Francisco’s defense also isn’t considered elite, so given the offensive talent in this game, a shootout can be expected.
Storylines to Watch
There are some wild storylines heading into this one, and some could impact how you bet on the Bears vs. 49ers. Here are the big ones to consider:
- Win Out: The 49ers control their own destiny on the road to lock up the NFC West and the #1 seed in the NFC. If they win on Sunday and win their season finale, everything they’re working for is theirs.
- Not Done: Chicago still has a lot to play for, though. They can still claim the #1 seed if things shake their way, or they could at least hold onto the #2 seed. A loss here would end their bid for the top seed, while they could slide to as low as 3rd in the conference.
- More Proof: Regardless of the outcome of this game for the Bears, this game serves as yet another measuring stick for second-year QB Caleb Williams and rookie head coach Ben Johnson. The duo have passed a lot of tests together this year, but going on the road and hanging with (or even defeating) the Niners would say a lot about where they can go this season.
Team Profiles
Chicago Bears
This is not where many people expected the Chicago Bears to be after a slow start. Ben Johnson’s first year in the Windy City got off to a rocky start, as the Bears collapsed against Minnesota in week one and got destroyed by Detroit in week two.
Making the playoffs after a 0-2 start isn’t something teams normally do, but Chicago rattled off four consecutive wins to turn their season around, and only lost two more games the rest of the way.
It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Bears have zero quit in them, as they’ve rallied in numerous games and have pulled out wins in seven one-score games. Chicago lacks polish on offense and needs turnovers to survive defensively, but they’ve done enough to win their division, and who knows where they can go from here.
Before we decide their fate on the road against the Niners, here’s a snapshot of what they’ve done the best this year:
- Ground Control: Chicago runs the ball at a 47% rate (7th highest), and they do it remarkably well. D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai combine to form the league’s third-best ground game, while this group is highly efficient with a 4.9 yards per carry average (3rd).
- Max Protect: Second-year passer Caleb Williams has had some wow moments, but inaccuracy and general inconsistency has held him back. His offensive line has done all it can to make life easier on him; however, as this group owns the 5th-best sack rate, it’s helped cut down mistakes (fewest giveaways in football).
- Aggressive D: Chicago can’t really stop anyone in terms of shutting down the run, generating consistent pressure, or stifling passing games. But there isn’t a more aggressive or opportunistic defense in the NFL. The Bears force 2.1 turnovers per game (1st) and own the league’s top interception rate, making them ironically one of the scariest matchups for even the best of offenses.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have had major health issues all season, but they’re another mild miracle, as they’ve scratched and clawed their way to a stout 11-4 record.
San Francisco has everything in front of them going into SNF, and all they have to do is win this game for an opportunity to put themselves in position to go on a deep playoff run.
It didn’t always look like this, however, as starting quarterback Brock Purdy has missed a ton of time, while big names such as George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, and Nick Bosa have all missed a bunch of games – with some simply being out for the year already.
Purdy is fresh off a majestic performance, however, and he’s the healthiest he’s been all year. Kittle and Pearsall are big question marks coming into this home date with Chicago, but the Niners as a whole have a lot of positives to lean on. Here are three that stand out the most:
- Pass Attack: The Niners are a team that wants to run the ball, but can’t seem to make it happen. That puts an added onus on Purdy and the passing game, but they’ve responded well, balling out to the tune of 249.5 passing yards per game (5th) and popping off for 7.6 yards per pass (9th).
- Finish the Job: The Niners are ineffective on the ground, but they still do a terrific job of using Christian McCaffrey as an extension of the ground game. They also turn to him in the red zone, where he is highly effective. That’s helped them score at a 63% rate inside the 20, which ranks 8th in the NFL.
- Stingy Up Front: Losing Nick Bosa has hurt the Niners in terms of pass rush, and it’s exposed a weak secondary. But if the Niners can stop the run – which they’re elite at (8th) – then they can slow down explosive offenses.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Bears vs. 49ers matchups:
- Chicago’s rush offense vs. San Francisco’s run defense: This is the key to the game. The 49ers have a top-10 run defense, and their pass defense stinks. If they can stuff an elite Bears rushing attack, then they can dictate the tempo of this game and force Caleb Williams to beat them.
- Chicago’s secondary vs. San Francisco’s passing game: The 49ers might not be at full strength for this one, which puts added pressure on Brock Purdy to take care of the football. That isn’t something he’s done an amazing job of at times, and he better not trip up against the league’s most opportunistic defense.
- San Francisco’s RZ offense vs. Chicago’s RZ defense: The Bears do not have a feared defense, but they do bring the 9th-best red-zone defense to the table. That is a clear clash with C-Mac and co, who tend to finish drives with scores when they pass the 20.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Bears vs. 49ers odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Bears | +3.5 (-118) | +160 | Over 52.5 (-105) |
49ers | -3.5 (-104) | -190 | Under 52.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The action is fairly lopsided, with 71% of the bets taking the Niners, and San Francisco also getting 64% of the money.
- Record History: These two sides have a rich history, facing off 70 total times in the past. The 49ers lead the series 36-33-1 and won last year’s meeting easily, 38-13.
- ATS Tidbits: Chicago has been quite good (10-5) against the spread, going 5-3 ATS as the underdog and 5-3 ATS on the road. The 49ers have been about as good (9-5-1) against the spread, and are 7-2-1 ATS when favored.
Best Bets for Bears vs. 49ers
Pick 1: Bears ATS +3.5 (-118) 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Chicago has a lot to play for. Maybe they just lie down after winning the NFC North, but that isn’t really in their DNA. They routinely rally to close out games, and they have lost by more than one score just one time in their last 11 games.
Risks/What to Watch
Chicago is quite reliant on getting turnovers and coming from behind late in games. It’s very possible their luck will run out at some point.
Pick 2: Over 52.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Neither of these defenses are scary. The 49ers just crushed the Colts a week ago and have the offense to roll past Chicago at home. I don’t think that happens, but the Bears aren’t about to stifle them, while their defense is weak enough to give up 20+ points, just as well.
Risks/What to Watch
The 49ers are at home with a lot on the line. Chicago has found a way to hold three of their last four opponents under 16 points. These are high stakes, and sometimes it makes for low-scoring defensive battles.
Pick 3: Prop Play – DJ Moore Over 50+ Receiving Yards (+107) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Rome Odunze has already been ruled out, so we should be smashing the Overs for both DJ Moore and Luther Burden this week. I am more into Moore, as Burden is returning from injury, and we saw Moore coast past this total in each of his last two games. Plus, the 49ers are horrendous against the pass.
Risks/What to Watch
Moore has had a very up-and-down season. It’s entirely possible Burden is the guy to target here, or Caleb Williams just comes out and struggles on the road.
Bears vs. 49ers odds won’t stay steady — monitor shifting lines, compare spreads and totals, and secure the best betting value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Bears Beat Spread, But 49ers March Toward #1 Seed
My main Bears vs. 49ers prediction is that the 49ers win, but that the Bears keep it close. That has me liking Chicago ATS, and I also don’t mind the San Francisco ML. The pricing has me leaning toward the Bears against the spread between the two bets, however.
I also really like the Over in this spot. The 49ers have been humming on offense, and their defense is weak enough to allow Chicago to put up some points and hang in this one. That may not lead to a Bears win, but it should help them beat the spread and also contribute to the Over.
The reality is the 49ers are the better team, they have more experience, they’re at home, and they have a clear path to the #1 seed in the NFC. Chicago could be breathing a bit easier knowing their playoff spot and division crown are both locked up, too.
Final Score Prediction: San Francisco 30, Chicago 27
