Army vs. Navy Prediction & Betting Picks (December 13, 2025)
The classic Army-Navy game touches down at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday, where the Midshipmen will be understandable 6-point betting favorites.
Nobody should be too surprised, as Navy has been the far better team on the year, going 9-2 and tying for first place (7-1) inside the AAC.
Navy narrowly missed out on the AAC title game, which is one way of saying Brian Newberry has a really good team for the second year in a row. That makes the -245 favorites a good bet to land the Commanders-In-Chief’s Trophy, but anyone who follows this series knows there’s a chance Army could mess up their plans.
The Midshipmen stand out as the likely winner, but is that where the value is? And how much can this rivalry play into the final score? Let’s inspect the latest odds and key matchups to identify this game’s best bets and come to a final Army vs. Navy prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Army Black Knights (6-5) vs. Navy Midshipmen (9-2)
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 13th, with kickoff at 11:00 am CT (12:00 pm ET)
- Venue: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on CBS
Team Record
- Army is 6-5, 4-4 in the AAC.
- Navy is 9-2, 7-1 in the AAC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Army vs. Navy odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Army | +6.5 (-105) | +215 | Over 38.5 (-112) |
Navy | -6.5 (-115) | -265 | Under 38.5 (-108) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
If you look up the term “rivalry” in the dictionary, you might find a picture of the first Army vs. Navy game. It’s an old one, as this series has been going since 1890. While there has been some start and stoppage throughout the series, the series has gone uninterrupted since 1930, and this will be the 127th installment.
Navy holds a 63-55-7 edge all-time and dominated Army in a 31-13 win last year. The two sides have largely been competitive in recent meetings; however, splitting the last six (3-3) right down the middle.
This will be the first game played in Baltimore since 2016 – a game Army came away with, 21-17. The meetings in Maryland have been infrequent, but the Midshipmen won in Landover in the last showdown.
For what it’s worth, Navy has been very good at home, as they have yet to lose a game there this season, and they only lost one home game in 2024.
Why This Game Matters
This is one of the most intense rivalries in all of sports, with the winner getting the ultimate bragging rights and knocking the other down a peg or two.
In addition, the victor gets the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy. Since both teams already beat Air Force this year, this one is for all the marbles.
Team Profiles
Army Black Knights
The Black Knights have not been overly impressive as a whole. They dropped their 2025 opener to Tarleton State, which very likely tells us all we need to know.
To their credit, Army bounced back and beat Kansas State, but followed that up with a 45-38 shootout loss against North Texas before getting stomped by East Carolina. They did manage to come back from that 1-3 start, however, as they went 5-2 the rest of the way, with their only other losses coming by a combined eight points to Tulane (AAC winner) and Tulsa.
Army comes into this matchup above .500 and with a very healthy ground game. Here’s a quick look at how they’ve stood out on the year:
- Ground Control: Army runs the ball more than anyone in the country – literally. They run the ball 86% of the time, and they’re pretty good at it. Their 4.3 yards per carry isn’t amazing, but it’s arguably better than you’d think when you consider their volume.
- Finish the Job: The Black Knights lull opponents to sleep on the ground, but they know how to finish drives. They score on 89% of their trips inside the 20, ranking 29th in red-zone offense on the season.
- Mistake Free: Army does a fantastic job at avoiding mental errors and limiting turnovers. They cough up the third fewest turnovers in the nation and commit just 2.6 penalties per game (lowest in the country).
Navy Midshipmen
Navy is definitely the superior team when looking at record, schedule, big wins, and raw data. Basically, everything that matters, am I right?
The Midshipmen got off to a nice start with a 52-7 win in their first game, and proceeded to win their next six games en route to a 7-0 start.
They did lose by 14 to North Texas and got smoked by an elite Notre Dame team, but bounced back to edge out South Florida in a wild 41-38 shootout, and also downed a terrific Memphis squad.
Navy narrowly missed out on a chance to play for the AAC title, but there is a very real argument that they were the best team in their conference. Here’s a quick look at what’s made them so good:
- Run the Ball: Navy runs the ball almost as much as Army (76%), but they’re simply better at it. They average an eye-popping 5.8 yards per carry (3rd) and own the nation’s best rushing attack with over 281 yards on the ground per game.
- Splash Plays: Their yards per pass average (10.1) is the second-best in the country. Obviously, passing only 23% of the time helps that stay high, but Navy can still hurt you down the field when they do decide to throw.
- Points Per Play: Navy is one of the best teams in the country in terms of points per play (0.4), ranking 19th. That, along with their elite ground game, churns out 30.5 points per contest (30th).
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Army vs. Navy matchups:
- Army’s rushing offense vs. Navy’s run defense: Both teams want to run the ball, but Army wants to run it even harder. They might be able to find some success against a Navy defense that gives up over 156 yards per game on the ground.
- Navy’s rushing offense vs. Army’s run defense: Navy’s rushing volume is a tad lighter than Army’s, but they’re better at it, and they have the softer matchup in terms of yards per carry allowed.
- Red-Zone & Turnover Battles: This may be where Army has an edge and can keep this game close. Both RZ offenses are good, but Army’s is flat-out elite. Both teams take care of the football, but the Black Knights are on another level with their ball security.
Betting Insights & Trends
Army has not been great (5-5-1) against the spread, while they are 3-4-1 against the spread inside the AAC. However, they are 5-1 ATS on the road and 3-2 ATS as the underdog.
Navy has been even worse (4-7) against the spread, while they are just 2-4 ATS at home and 2-5 ATS as the favorite. They’re also just 3-5 ATS in conference play.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Army vs. Navy picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 38.5 (-108) | Army’s defense is good, but Navy’s offense is better. They’re going to run the ball at will, and they have the upside to get to the Over all on their own. | 7/10 |
Army ATS +6.5 (-105) | This is a tense rivalry game. Navy is better and at home, but their ML stinks, and this spread is a bit too big for me to feel good about going the other way. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Blake Horvath Anytime TD (-190) | This is my favorite Army vs. Navy pick, but it’s pushing minus 200, so I’ll list it third. That said, Horvath makes this offense go, and has 14 scores on the ground, with at least one in eight of his last nine games. | 8/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 38.5 (-102)
- Secondary Pick: Army ATS +6 (=108)
The total is low for a reason, but the last meeting coasted past 38.5, and Navy’s offense is really good. I’m betting on the Midshipmen to be in top form, while Army really wouldn’t have to do too much to get us there.
Army isn’t as good as Navy, but since when has that mattered in a rivalry like this? The Black Knights have the defense and rushing attack to mess with Navy and hang around.
Horvath is a touchdown scoring machine. He has 14 scores on the ground this year, and he had another 17 last year. Given Navy’s tendency to run and their RZ production, he is a smash bet under -200.
Army vs. Navy odds can change quickly in a rivalry this intense — track every line shift, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football bets don’t always work out. Here’s why my Army vs. Navy picks could falter:
- Tough Defense: Army’s defense is pretty darn good. It’s not impossible to imagine them stifling Navy enough to keep this one close and stage the upset.
- Rivalry Setting: Rivalry games can be toss-ups, so anytime you feel you got it right, a team being familiar with another or hungry to win can throw all logic out the window.
- Variance: Horvath is an amazing bet to find the endzone with his legs. However, any combination of scoring variance or Army’s defense could hurt this bet’s potential.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Navy 24, Army 20
My main Navy vs. Army prediction is that the Midshipmen will get the win. They won this game easily last year, they’re the better team this season, and they’re at home.
That said, Navy has been tripped up a couple of times, and there is so much more to this game than numbers or matchups. Plus, hammering Navy’s -245 moneyline doesn’t feel that good.
Instead, I think Army is a good bet to keep this tight, and they do have a strong defense and a rushing attack that could potentially control the game or keep Navy’s offense off the field. I also would target the Over in this one, just because the Midshipmen have a pretty explosive offense, and the total is really setting the bar low.
