Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction & Betting Picks (December 19, 2025)
The Alabama Crimson Tide will be a mild 1.5-point underdog on Friday, when they prepare to take on the Oklahoma Sooners in round one of the College Football Playoffs.
Oklahoma downed Alabama earlier this year and has won the last two meetings, putting a lot of pressure on the Crimson Tide to answer back. This is understandably one of the toughest games to call to open the CFP.
There’s a lot of chatter involving whether the spread should be quite this close, especially since Alabama lost three games and didn’t come close to beating Georgia in the SEC title game. Still, the spread is the spread, and we have to make a call.
So, is Alabama the team to back, or should bettors roll with the Sooners? I’ll inspect the latest odds and key matchups to uncover this game’s top bets, as well as my final Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)
- Date & Time: Friday, December 19th, with kickoff at 7:00 pm (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: OU Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ABC and ESPN
Team Record
- Alabama is 10-3, 7-2 in the SEC.
- Oklahoma is 10-2, 6-2 in the SEC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | +1.5 (-115) | -104 | Over 41.5 (-104) |
Oklahoma | -1.5 (-105) | -112 | Under 41.5 (-118) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
Alabama and Oklahoma haven’t been together in the SEC for that long, but it’s still surprising to realize they’ve only faced off eight times in school history.
It’s even more shocking to see that the Sooners hold a 5-2-1 advantage in the series, while they’ve had the upper hand against the Crimson Tide in the last two meetings. Oklahoma edged out Alabama by just two points back in November, while they won in far more dominant fashion (24-3) in 2023.
This game will be played at Oklahoma’s home field, OU Memorial Stadium, where they are 6-1 on the year.
Why This Game Matters
This is an SEC clash, but more importantly, it’s a first-round game in the CFP. The winner stays alive as they try to chase a national title, while the loser goes home.
Team Profiles
Alabama Crimson Tide
This is not the same elite Alabama Crimson Tide team we’re used to seeing. They’re still good, but a lot of their offensive production has come against weaker teams.
When asked to put up points against top-shelf competition, Ty Simpson and co. have struggled. They got smoked 28-7 in the SEC title game against Georgia, only mustered 21 points in a loss to Oklahoma, and only scored 17 in a loss to Florida State.
Alabama still won 10 games, but LSU, South Carolina, Missouri, and Georgia (twice) all held them under 30 points and made them work for everything they got. Of course, Alabama still has a chance to right the ship, get hot, and go win another title.
Before we decide if they’ll do that, let’s see where they’ve specifically stood out this year:
- Finish the Job: Alabama’s running game stinks, but when they get in scoring position, they tend to get the job done. They enter Friday’s game with an 89% conversion rate, which ranks 36th in all of college football.
- Passing Attack: Ty Simpson and the passing game haven’t always shown up in big moments, but this has been Alabama’s offensive strength. They come in with a fairly explosive unit that grades out as college football’s 18th-best passing attack.
- Deny the Pass: While the Crimson Tide can’t run the football, at least they know how to stop opposing passing games. They allow just 6.2 yards per pass (15th) and grade out as the nation’s 9th-best overall pass defense.
Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners are a more compelling team than Alabama, at least partially due to taking them down 23-21 just four weeks ago.
Oklahoma enjoyed a better overall season, while they’ve exhibited stonewall defense and offer enough offense to get by. They are arguably inferior on the offensive side of things, but it hasn’t held them back too much.
Texas did manhandle them, and they couldn’t slow down Ole Miss, but 2025 was otherwise a season with few red flags for this team on defense. If the offense shows up and the defense does its job, Oklahoma is a really good bet to keep things rolling on Friday night.
Before we make the official pick, though, let’s see what Oklahoma does best:
- RZ Masters: Oklahoma’s offense is very balanced, but it lacks explosion. It doesn’t really matter, though, as long as they get inside the 20. There, they score every single time, coming into this matchup with a perfect RZ offense (1st in the country).
- Stop the Run: The Crimson Tide struggles to run the ball, so they’ll really have a tough time against Oklahoma. The Sooners only give up 2.3 yards per carry (1st) and only allow 78.3 rushing yards per game (3rd).
- Pressure Up Front: Oklahoma’s defense is built on the back of an elite run defense, but it also gets after the passer as well as anyone. The Sooners sport a sick 10% sack rate, giving them the 2nd-best pass rush in the college ranks.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Crimson Tide vs. Sooners matchups:
- Alabama’s passing game vs. Oklahoma’s pass defense: The Crimson Tide are not a threat to run this year, so Ty Simpson better have a big game. Alabama ranks 18th in passing, but they’ll be running into a stingy defense that owns the nation’s 2nd-best pass rush and only allows 6.3 yards per pass (27th).
- Oklahoma’s RZ offense vs. Alabama’s RZ defense: The Sooners have yet to fail to score inside the 20. They have the best RZ conversion rate in the country, but it will be tested against Alabama’s 29th-ranked red-zone defense.
- Turnover Battle: The Crimson Tide do a fantastic job of taking care of the football (14th fewest turnovers per game). Oklahoma is a bit more reckless, and their defense doesn’t force a ton of turnovers. If that holds firm, it could be a big advantage in a game where Alabama may have precious few.
Betting Insights & Trends
Alabama has been solid against the spread (8-4-1), but they’re just 2-2-1 ATS on the road and 1-1 ATS as the underdog.
Oklahoma has actually been a bit worse (6-5-1) against the spread, while they’re just 4-4-1 ATS when favored and 2-4-1 ATS at home.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Alabama vs. Oklahoma picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 41.5 (-118) | This is a very tense game with two elite defenses. They allow a combined 33 points per game, while the last two meetings hit the Under. I see another defensive battle with precious little scoring. | 7/10 |
Oklahoma Sooners -112 | The Sooners get a huge game at home, and I don’t think they’re going to blow it. They know how to handle Alabama, while the Crimson Tide’s offense simply isn’t good enough to consistently win in this matchup. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Under 40.5 (-102)
- Secondary Pick: Oklahoma ML (-115)
Neither of these offenses are elite, and both defenses most certainly are. We saw that in the first meeting, and I expect a similar result.
Oklahoma has the edge on both offense and defense in this one. Alabama has had their moment, too, so I think the Sooners step up at home and punch their ticket to the second round.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma odds keep changing as bettors react to CFP pressure — track every line shift, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football bets don’t always work out. Here’s why my Alabama vs. Oklahoma picks could falter:
- Low Total: While neither side has been overly productive, they still score points on average and have a lot of talent. More importantly, this total is really low. By default, it simply wouldn’t take a lot to hit the Over.
- More Experience: Oklahoma has had Alabama’s number and appears to be the better team, but experience in these situations can matter. The spread is also extremely tight, so I don’t think anyone would be too shocked if Alabama found a way to win.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 20, Alabama 17
My main Alabama vs. Oklahoma prediction is that we get another defensive battle. Alabama and Oklahoma can both put some points on the board, but not exactly at an elite rate – at least not against truly good defenses.
That’s probably what they’d need to scare me off, as both defenses are quite stingy in the scoring department. Together, they should limit the big plays and scoring in a tight defensive battle.
Ultimately, I think this is Oklahoma’s game to lose. Alabama has gotten tripped up three times this year, and when they ran into a stout Georgia defense in the SEC title game, they had zero answers. I don’t think they’ll have any more success against Oklahoma’s defense than they did in the previous meeting.
