49ers vs. Eagles Prediction & Best Bets (January 11th, 2026)
The San Francisco 49ers went from playing for the #1 seed in the NFC to being 4.5-point road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Life comes at you fast.
San Francisco looked like perhaps the best team in pro football just two weeks ago, but their offense sputtered in a huge game to close out the regular season. On top of that, serious defensive issues make them a question mark heading into a challenging road tilt against the defending Super Bowl champions.
Philly has had an up and down campaign as well, but they still won the NFC East and get to host this game. They remain a talented and well-coached unit, and they’ll surely have their sights set on repeating.
This one is tough to call, but I’ve got a lean and some picks I prefer over others. Join me as I analyze the latest odds and key matchups and wrap things up with my 49ers vs. Eagles prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, January 11th, 2026 | Kickoff at 3:30 pm (4:30 pm ET) at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA
- Team records entering the game:
- San Francisco 49ers: 12-5
- Philadelphia Eagles: 11-6
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: 49ers +4.5 (-112) | Eagles -4.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: 49ers (+195) | Eagles (-238)
- Total: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
The spread is a little surprising, as it discredits the 49ers a bit. Philly should be favored at home, but San Francisco bettors are getting a big-time discount.
This game has a modest total due to the game being played outside in the cold, as well as Philly’s style of play. The Eagles can also play very well defensively, which could lower the total score.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this 49ers vs. Eagles Wild Card showdown:
- Playoff Rematch: Philly ran away with the most recent playoff meeting in this series, as a Brock Purdy injury ruined San Francisco’s chances of being competitive. The 49ers will probably be eager to return the favor.
- Repeat Bid: Philly has the strongest narrative of them all, as they won it all last year and are hoping they have what it takes to make it back to the big game and repeat as champions.
- At Long Last: The 49ers continue to have a contending roster, but have not been able to finish the job. Injuries have derailed them a bit this year, but they should get offensive tackle Trent Williams back for this one as they keep their eye on the prize.
Team Profiles
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have been pretty impressive this year, considering the injuries they’ve dealt with. Star wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was never activated, the team traded Deebo Samuel away, and they lost star defenders Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to injuries.
Along the way, Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Trent Williams have missed time. Despite the rash of high-level injuries, San Francisco won 12 games and had a shot at the NFC West and the #1 seed in the NFC.
San Francisco was unable to get it done in week 18, but Purdy leads a dynamic offense, and head coach Kyle Shanahan has a system in place that is tough to bet against. The defense is lacking, but anything can happen in the playoffs, and the Niners have the experience and talent to go on a run.
It remains to be seen if they’ll do that, but their bid starts in Philly. Let’s take a quick look at where they’ve stood out the most before deciding if they’ll get the win:
- Air Assault: San Francisco has the league’s 5th best passing offense, as they complete 69% of their passes (3rd) and average 7.5 yards per pass (9th). Brock Purdy has been sensational down the stretch, while Mac Jones put up strong numbers when he was called upon earlier this season.
- Finish the Job: The Niners have not had much success on the ground this year, but star rusher Christian McCaffrey has still been huge in the red zone. His presence and overall scoring ability plays a huge hand in the NFL’s 5th best RZ offense.
- Stop the Run: San Francisco’s defense is not what it once was due to injuries. Their offense tends to help them out, though, and when they’re fresh, they can do a decent job against the run (8th).
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles looked well on their way to defending their Super Bowl title early in the year, as they exploded out to a 4-0 start and got impressive wins over the Chiefs, Rams, and Buccaneers.
They lost to Denver to snap that hot streak, and followed that up with a blowout loss to the lowly Giants. To their credit, they calibrated to go on another four-game run, but a three-game skid in the middle of the year raised some eyebrows.
Philly closed out the season strong, going 3-1 over their last four games, with their week 18 loss being fairly meaningless. Overall, this team has loads of experience, excellent coaching, and a fearsome foursome of Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith.
The Eagles don’t always bring their A-game, but when they do, it’s lights out. And even when they don’t, more often than not, they keep themselves in the game and usually find a way to get the win.
Will they do that against the 49ers? Only time will tell. To help us make that call, let’s see how the Eagles have thrived on the year:
- Finish the Job: Much like the 49ers, the Eagles are elite at scoring the football once they pass the 20. Relying on the Tush Push, Philly is also specifically exceptional at the goal-line. Naturally, they rank 1st in the NFL with a 70% RZ conversion rate.
- Defend the Pass: Philly can be had on the ground, but they have a rock-solid pass defense. They rank 8th against the pass overall and also have a decent pass rush (15th) that aids their plight. They are extremely stingy in terms of yards per pass (5th) and allow the lowest completion rate (56.8%) in all of football.
- Turnover Margin: Philly is exceptional at taking care of the football. Jalen Hurts has a sparkling 1.4% interception rate (5th), which contributes to the Eagles turning the ball over just 0.9 times per contest (4th). They also are aggressive defensively, forcing 1.2 turnovers per game (10th).
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key 49ers vs. Eagles matchups:
- 49ers passing game vs. Eagles pass defense: The Niners pass the ball 55% of the time and struggle to run the ball. Naturally, they better bring their A-game through the air, especially since it’s where the Philadelphia defense excels.
- Eagles running game vs. 49ers run defense: Philly has had a tough time on the ground all year, but you know, with Hurts and Saquon Barkley, they’d love to establish the run. They may have a chance to do that against the 49ers, who allow 4.3 yards per carry (20th).
- RZ Efficiency & Turnover Battle: Both teams are very good at closing the deal in the red zone, while both defenses are top-12 in the RZ. Philly is really good at forcing and avoiding turnovers, while the 49ers rank just 26th in turnover margin.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest 49ers vs. Eagles odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
49ers | -4.5 (-112) | +195 | Over 44.5 (-110) |
Eagles | +4.5 (-108) | -238 | Under 44.5 (-110) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The Public is all over the 49ers in terms of the number of bets (65%), but they prefer the Eagles in terms of the money (62%).
- Record History: The Eagles and 49ers have faced off 27 times in all, with the Niners holding a 21-15-1 series lead. San Francisco won the most recent game in 2023 (42-19), while the Eagles won the game before in the playoffs.
- ATS Tidbits: The 49ers are solid against the spread (10-6-1), going 7-2 ATS on the road, but 2-4 ATS as the underdog. Philly is about as good (10-7) against the spread, but they’re just 8-7 ATS when favored and 4-4 ATS at home.
Best Bets for 49ers vs. Eagles
Pick 1: Eagles Win Margin 1-6 (+275) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This gives us more wiggle room than San Francisco’s ATS line, and it is a way better price. Philly is at home, they have talked about becoming a dynasty, and everything in this matchup points to them.
Risks/What to Watch
The 49ers have been lights out on offense, and Philly’s offense can run cold. If the 49ers win, this bet is a full loss, so it’s riskier than betting on the 49ers against the spread.
Pick 2: Prop Play – Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-140) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
McCaffrey scores pretty regularly, and he can find the endzone as both a rusher and a receiver. He has 17 total scores on the year, and his prop line is discounted. Philly also ranks 25th in rushing TDs allowed.
Risks/What to Watch
Touchdown variance is a thing, and Philly’s red-zone defense is solid. I have the Eagles winning, so that could limit San Francisco’s scoring upside, too.
Pick 3: Under 44.5 (-110) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Philly plays a very boring brand of football. They can keep drives alive by going for it on 4th down in short-yardage situations, while they are at home and have a better-than-advertised defense. If they’re going to win, this game will be slow and sloppy.
Risks/What to Watch
The 49ers have looked like one of the best offenses in the league lately. If they revert to that, Philly could be in trouble – and so could the Under.
49ers vs. Eagles odds have been shifting as the market reacts to spread movement and total adjustments — track every line change, compare prices, and lock in the best value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Eagles Keep Dynasty Dream Alive, Down 49ers
My main 49ers vs. Eagles prediction is that the defending champs defend their home turf. The Eagles have been very inconsistent on the year, but they are still in basically every single game they play, and they have just as much talent as the 49ers.
San Francisco did not give us a good preview of what it might look like when they are tasked with facing a quality team with a lot at stake, either. Trent Williams should be back to give them a boost, but the 49ers are not good on the ground, they aren’t good defensively, and they sure have had to stomach a slew of devastating injuries.
Ultimately, the 49ers are just too thin on defense. They also turn the ball over more than you’d like, and they are a sharp contrast to what Philly does well. Look for the Eagles to slow this game down, control time of possession, and win the turnover battle.
C-Mac is still a great bet to hit paydirt, but the Eagles will limit their opportunities and get the win at home.
Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles 23, San Francisco 49ers 20
