Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction & Best Bets (December 7th, 2025)
The season is on the line for the Kansas City Chiefs in week 14, as they host the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes and company will be mild -188 favorites at home, but a middling 6-6 record suggests they could be flimsier bets than usual.
A huge reason for doubt is Houston’s stifling defense, which made the Buffalo Bills look human just a couple of weeks ago. The Texans have also been on fire, winning each of their last four games.
Despite their turn around, Houston still sits third in the competitive AFC South. Kansas City, meanwhile, does not have a clear path to winning the AFC West, making a win on SNF absolutely crucial to their playoff chances.
Wondering what the best bet for this game is? I’ve got three Texans vs. Chiefs picks I love. Let’s go over the latest odds and key matchups to highlight what stands out, and I’ll wrap things up with my ultimate Chiefs vs. Texans prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Sunday, December 7th, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:20 pm ET (NBC) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO
- Team records entering the game:
- Texans: 7-5
- Chiefs: 6-6
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Texans +3.5 (-105) | Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Texans (+168) | Chiefs (-200)
- Total: Over 41.5 (-118) | Under 41.5 (-104)
The odds reflect the importance of this game for the Chiefs, as well as the fact that they are at home. It’s still a relatively tight spread and moneyline, however, showing bettors that the Texans are a respected threat.
The game total is extremely low, signaling the combined efforts of two very good defenses. This is suggesting a very low-scoring game that is likely going to go down to the wire.
Storylines to Watch
The biggest Chiefs vs. Texans storyline for this game is easily the decline of the mighty Chiefs. They went from playing in the Super Bowl last year to 6-6. A loss here would really hurt their playoff chances, as they already sit in third place in their own division.
There is a lot to get excited about for this game. Check out a few more key Texans vs. Chiefs storylines:
- Houston’s Elite Defense: You’re looking at the best scoring defense (16.5 ppg allowed) in all of football. But can they march into a hostile environment and finish off a Chiefs dynasty?
- Texans on Fire: Houston is red hot coming into this game, as they’ve won four straight and seven of their last nine. Arrowhead Stadium is a brutal place to play, but can they find a way to keep winning?
- End of a Dynasty?: Bigger than KC’s potential to miss the playoffs is the fact that a loss here could also mark the end of their dynasty. Could big changes be coming if they miss the playoffs this year?
Team Profiles
Houston Texans
The Texans are where they thought they’d be, but not via the path anyone expected. This was always meant to be a playoff contender, but Houston got off to a rocky 0-3 start that threatened to derail their season before it really began.
Houston was in all of those first three losses, however, while they’ve displayed a tenacious defense from the jump. DeMeco Ryans’ crew found a way to dig deep and bounce back, as they’ve gone a blistering 7-2 since that rough start.
Here’s a quick look at how they’ve stood out along the way:
- Nasty Up Front: Houston’s defensive success starts up front, where they only allow 4.0 yards per carry (10th) and just 91.7 rushing yards per game (4th). Containing the team’s rushing attacks makes them one-dimensional and easier for Houston to defend.
- Teeing Off: Playing into their stingy run defense is a disruptive pass rush. Houston owns an 8.3% sack rate, which is the 6th best in the league. Danielle Hunter (11 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (10.5) form one of the sickest pass rushes the NFL has to offer.
- Turnover Battle: Houston’s offense isn’t consistently elite at anything, save for taking care of the ball. The Texans only commit 0.8 giveaways per game (7th fewest), while the defense helps them play complementary football by being as opportunistic units in the league with 1.6 takeaways (5th most) per contest.
Kansas City Chiefs
Much like the Texans, Kansas City got off to an unexpectedly slow start. The Super Bowl hangover was apparently a thing, as they lost their season opener to the Chargers and fell to the Eagles the next week.
KC did manage to get it going enough to get to 5-3 at one point, but have unraveled lately during a rough 1-3 stretch that now has their season hanging in the balance.
There’s still some good that has come out of this Chiefs team, of course. Here’s a look at where they’ve excelled in 2025:
- Pass Attack: Kansas City has one of the best passing games in the league. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been the most accurate, but he leads an offense that springs big plays (11th) and accumulates the 2nd most passing yards per game (256.5).
- Stingy Front: Kansas City doesn’t run the ball all that well, but they sure can stop it. Much like Houston, the Chiefs are quite good against the run, only allowing 100.9 yards per game on the ground (9th best).
- RZ Masters: Kansas City is top-10 in both red-zone defense and offense. Mahomes and co. finish drives inside the 20 with a score 62% of the time (10th), while their defense is even better (7th), only allowing a RZ score 54% of the time.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Texans vs. Chiefs matchups:
- Houston’s pass rush vs. Kansas City’s passing game: This is likely the key to the game. The Chiefs have dangerous weapons and Mahomes is their guiding light, but they’ll need to stave off a disruptive Texans pass rush that sacked Josh Allen 8 times a couple of weeks ago.
- Who Blinks First?: Both of these offenses are elite at protecting the football, with KC and Houston giving up the 3rd and 7th fewest turnovers. Houston may have the edge, however, as they force 1.6 takeaways per game.
- Finish the Job: If Houston wants to stage this upset on the road, they may need to show up in the RZ on both sides of the field. KC has been elite inside the RZ, but the Texans are just average defensively and atrocious (31st!) on offense.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Texans vs. Chiefs odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Texans | +3.5 (-102) | +168 | Over 41.5 (-118) |
Chiefs | -3.5 (-120) | -200 | Under 41.5 (-104) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: Most everyone is siding with the Chiefs in this one, as 77% of the bets and 80% of the money is backing Kansas City.
- Record History: These two sides have only faced each other 16 times. Kansas City predictably holds an 11-5 series advantage and has won each of the last five meetings, including a 23-14 showdown in the playoffs last year.
- ATS Tidbits: Houston hasn’t been amazing (6-6) against the spread, while they are just 3-3 ATS as the favorite and 2-4 ATS on the road. Kansas City also hasn’t been reliable against the spread (5-6-1), while they are 1-1 ATS as the underdog and 4-1-1 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Texans vs. Chiefs
Pick 1: Kansas City Chiefs ML (-188) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Chiefs aren’t a team I like to bet against, especially at home with their season on the line. Houston’s defense is definitely tough, but KC’s offense is better than Houston’s, and KC has been at its best (5-1) at home.
Risks/What to Watch
Houston’s defense is good enough to scare anyone. It’s entirely possible they shut the Chiefs down. Besides, the Chiefs are 6-6 and a lot less reliable than usual.
Pick 2: Over 41.5 (-118) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The total is just too low. Houston only gives up 16.5 points per game, but they’re also running into a pretty capable offense that averages 25.4 per game. The edge leans toward Kansas City at home, so I put the onus more on Houston needing to step up, rather than the Texans stifling the Chiefs on the road.
Risks/What to Watch
Defense wins championships, and we saw the Texans make Josh Allen look silly recently. They could come into Kansas City and stifle Kansas City, or a weak Houston offense could always struggle to contribute to the total.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Rashee Rice Over 70+ Receiving Yards (-114) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This is a prop that just keeps on hitting. The matchup stinks, but Rashee Rice is a huge part of what the Chiefs do on offense. He’s topped this mark in four of his last five games.
Risks/What to Watch
Houston’s defense is very good, and they do rank 4th against the pass. If they make it their top priority to take Rice out of the game, he could have a tough time hitting this prop.
As Texans vs. Chiefs momentum shifts, changing odds lines reveal how bettors view KC’s desperation and Houston’s surge—track updated football odds at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Chiefs Stay Alive, Down Texans at Home
My top Chiefs vs. Texans prediction is that Patrick Mahomes and co. come through in the clutch at home. The matchup is not an easy one, but it’s not as if Houston has been the most trustworthy team in the world.
Kansas City has stumbled of late, but all three of their recent losses came on the road and were by one score. Two of them were against legit playoff teams in Buffalo and Denver.
The Texans might be a legit contender, but they will have to prove it. Step one is beating a desperate Chiefs team in front of their home crowd, and I predict they will fail.
Alternatively, this game total is very low, and Rashee Rice keeps racking up receiving yardage. I’ll gladly bet on the Over and trust in Rice’s role in what should be an entertaining performance on Sunday Night Football.
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 20
