Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals Picks & Prediction (October 16, 2025)
The Steelers are 5.5-point road favorites, as they’ve had an impressive season start, unlike the Bengals. However, the Bengals just added the Super Bowl champion, Joe Flacco, but with injuries piling up. I am forced to wonder, like many others, if this will be an easy cover or a trap game waiting to bite bettors.
While the Steelers stand out as the clear choice for the spread, I wouldn’t want you to sleep on the “Under” either. There might be value there, just as I believe adding a prop bet could be a surprise value.
This guide will include my key matchup breakdowns, injury updates, adjustments, and most importantly, betting trends and angles to consider. With those, I’ll give you my best bets with confidence levels before wrapping it up with my final score projection.
Game Info & Odds Snapshot (via DraftKings)
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
- Date & Time: Thursday, October 16, at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- How to Watch: Thursday Night Football on Prime Video
| Bet Type | Steelers | Bengals |
|---|---|---|
Spread | -5.5 (-110) | +5.5 (-110) |
Moneyline | -270 | +220 |
Total | Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115) |
Recent Form & Trends
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are 4-1 to this point, and they currently lead the AFC North. They’ve had an impressive start, but let’s look at other key areas to see how they level up.
- Offensive Profile – The team averages ~23.8 points per game. However, the yardage totals are modest and need some work. The passing game remains mid-tier level, and the rushing game still faces inconsistencies.
- Defensive Strengths & Identity – Pittsburgh is strong against the pass, and the team has decent talent in the secondary. Derrick Harmon might be an emerging player, but he has helped beef up the run defense in recent games.
- Injury/Roster Notes
- WR Calvin Austin III is dealing with a shoulder injury. He missed the Tuesday practice and is not likely for the clash. Safety Miles Killebrew is also out with a knee injury. Other veterans like Ramsey, Heyward, and Slay have had to rest with limited practice.
- LB Malik Harrison remains on IR, limiting the team’s depth. Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that the Steelers are 0-6 in their last six Thursday Night AFC North games, and these injuries don’t give much confidence for a turnaround.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati hasn’t been impressive with a record of 2-4 in the season stats. The team goes into this game on the heels of a 4-game loss.
- Offensive Challenges – The team’s offense has struggled to find consistency with Joe Burrow injured. Joe Flacco is the new starter and has shown glimpses in his debut. However, the entire offense is still adjusting. The adjustment would have been faster, but tight ends Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson are dealing with injuries (pectoral and concussion). You also have guards Dylan Fairchild and Lucas Patrick, both with knee and calf injuries, respectively. Trey Hendrickson is DNP in the injury report.
- Defensive Issues – Cincinnati’s defense ranks near the bottom in total yards allowed, pass defense, and run defense. The team has also missed tackles, put up a poor third-down defense, and lacked consistent pressure, all of which have hurt them.
- Turnover Trends & Red Zone Efficiency – The Bengals are among the highest in turnovers this season (11 total, per a model breakdown), which isn’t a good record to have. They also have issues sustaining drives, especially early in games.
Head-to-Head/Rivalry Context
It is no surprise that the Steelers lead the all-time series ~71–40. The team has also won its last three trips to Cincinnati, giving it the historic edge for this match. I understand that Division games tend to be tighter, with familiarity and the extra motivation often compressing margins. Nevertheless, the Steelers have the psychological edge, while the Bengals will be under pressure to respond.
Key Matchup Battles & Angles to Watch
First off, can Cincinnati protect Flacco with Hendrickson likely out? I expect Pittsburgh to blitz and potentially disrupt the rhythm. Harmon has become more impactful with a lighter and stronger body.
Ja’Marr Chase remains a matchup problem, and you’ll have to watch and see if Flacco finds him early. Another angle to watch is the Steelers’ ability to take away second receivers or force throws into tight windows. With Austin out or most likely limited, the depth in Pittsburgh’s receiving corps may matter.
Neither team has been dominant on the ground. However, I expect whichever team that runs to effectively control the clock. Pittsburgh may try to shorten the game, but they’ll have to get a favorable starting field position first.
Cincinnati is turnover-prone after getting one of the worst turnover stats in the season. With that, all Pittsburgh has to do is force mistakes and avoid giveaways. Watch out for special teams, field position swings, and short fields, as they could tilt the spread.
Watch out for late injury reports. If a key DB or pass rusher is knocked out, that will change the matchups. You also have to consider the depth and fatigue, as those are key factors.
Betting Trends & Market Signals
The Steelers are 3-2 ATS this season (per some trend sources). It has also had success covering ~5.5 spreads on the road in similar contexts, which gives me the confidence that they can do the same in this game. The Bengals, on the other hand, have had weak ATS performances as the underdogs.
When it comes to the total, the Steelers have hit the Over in about 3 of 5 games. The total of 44.5 is above the common “key number” (42.5); as such, the line movement could push it.
The early market leans toward the Steelers covering the spread. As for the total, some models, like SportsLine, project about ~46 total points and lean toward Over with a ~60% simulation hit rate for one side. However, many previewers expect a lower-scoring, more methodical division game, and I’m inclined to agree with them.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
1. Steelers -5.5 (Confidence 4/5)
Why We Like It:
The Steelers have the defensive edge and better stability at the quarterback position compared to the Bengals. It also has a relentless pass rush this season that currently ranks in the top 5 of quarterback pressures. The Bengals, on the other hand, continue to struggle in their offensive line without Joe Burrow’s quick release to mask its flaws as usual. Joe Flacco, although emerging, still has immobility that will amplify that mismatch.
If we consider the defensive angle, then the Bengals aren’t faring any better. The team has allowed over 26 points in four straight games, and the absence of key contributors like Trey Hendrickson and Mike Gesicki still leaves a loophole. With the Steelers offense, it’ll be an easy one, as they are disciplined and balanced, leaning on Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren to set up play-action shots for Rodgers.
You also have the historic stats, where Mike Tomlin’s squads have thrived against division opponents when favored by less than a touchdown (covering 64% of such spots since 2019). Cincinnati, on the other hand, is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog.
- Projected Edge: The Steelers will likely win comfortably behind a suffocating defense and favorable field position.
- Predicted Margin: Steelers by 8-10 points.
2. Under 44.5 (Confidence 3.5/5)
Why We Like It:
Division games between the Steelers and Bengals have historically trended under. A closer look at the last 12 meetings shows that the scoreline stayed below 44 in 9 games. Then, you also have the short-week Thursday matchups, which typically favor the under because of the limited preparation time and, not forgetting, the fatigued players.
Cincinnati’s offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders, which compounds things further. Without Burrow, the offense has averaged just 17 points per game. I do like Flacco’s style, which is conservative, relying heavily on check-downs and intermediate throws, which bleed the clock.
The Steelers aren’t built for shootouts either. Their defense leads the AFC in red zone stops, forcing field goals instead of touchdowns. If you add that to the cooler October weather and divisional physicality, the game trends even more toward the under. That is because the cooler October and divisional physicality both tend to suppress scoring. And I also feel like the total is inflated by 1-1.5 points.
- Projected Edge: Expect a grind-it-out game full of punts, turnovers, and defensive stands.
- Predicted Range: Total lands between 38 and 41 points.
3. Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD | +170 to +190 range (Confidence 4/5)
Why We Like It:
Pittsburgh will likely push to establish the run early against a weakened Bengal defensive front. Gainwell has quietly seen an increase in his red-zone usage and will be instrumental in this push. He has logged 60% of carries inside the 10-yard line over the last three weeks.
Cincinnati is way behind on defense, ranking in the bottom 10 when it comes to the opponent rushing TDs allowed. It has also given up at least one ground score in five straight contests. The team’s linebackers continue to struggle with gap integrity in short-yardage situations, and I expect Pittsburgh to exploit that to the fullest.
I expect Gainwell to get multiple opportunities to punch one in near the goal line, as the Steelers will likely control the time of possession.
- Projected Edge: Positive game script + soft defensive interior = strong touchdown probability.
- Predicted Outcome: Gainwell finds paydirt on a 1–3 yard carry in the 2nd or 3rd quarter.
Odds for Steelers vs. Bengals are already shifting as kickoff approaches—sharp money has moved key numbers on the spread and total. Track line changes and lock in the best price using our trusted football sportsbooks.
🧠 Bonus Angle (Lean)
- First Half Under 21.5 (-110): Both teams typically start slow on short rest. Look out for the game script. If it trends conservatively early, then this derivative play offers correlated value with the full-game Under.
⚠️ Bet to Avoid
- Bengals ML (+220): I won’t rule out an offset, but the Bengals team doesn’t look equipped to manage that. Avoid this betting angle, as it carries too much risk, even as a side bet.
Risk Factors & What Could Tilt
- The Bengals will stay close if Flacco starts hot, gets into rhythm, and hits big plays early.
- Losing a key defender or pass rusher late could swing matchups.
- A fumble or a pick in a tight game changes momentum and may result in turnover swings.
- Unforced errors/special teams blunders are crucial and may tilt the game.
- The weather, field conditions, or crowd noise at Paycor Stadium can affect the players.
- Consider coaching adjustments on the fly as well. Tomlin/Pittsburgh may have the better edge in game plan execution.
Last Word Before Kickoff
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Bengals 19
The Steelers have the momentum and head-to-head edge. While they have injury concerns, the team is still better positioned than the Bengals, who have yet to get their season momentum going. Nonetheless, keep an eye out for late injury reports, as that could swing the matchups.
My best bets are Steelers -5.5 (-110) and Under 44.5 (-115). The Steelers have all it takes to cover the spread, and they’ve proven themselves in previous matches. As for the totals, I expect a conservative, grind-it-out match.
