Sam Houston State vs. New Mexico State NCAAF Prediction (October 2, 2025)
The Bearkats meet the Aggies on Thursday night at 9 pm ET in New Mexico for a primetime NCAAF game.
Sam Houston State is on the road to play New Mexico State at Aggie Memorial Stadium; home-field advantage goes to NMSU!
While this is not a huge SEC game, that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value on the table; it’s the opposite! Because it’s not a high-profile game, that means it won’t see the same public action, and you can get in on the value.
The line is really close, and the consensus of oddsmakers looks like the playing field is equal. Here’s a quick look at the odds for this one:
- Sam Houston –2.5 (–115)
- New Mexico State +2.5 (–105)
- O/U 52.5
What do we think? Keep scrolling to see the game details, context, current playing form, the latest betting odds, offensive/defensive comparisons, market analysis, and what we think are the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Sam Houston State Bearkats (0-4) vs. New Mexico State Aggies (2-2)
- Date & Time: Thursday, October 2, at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
- How to Watch: Broadcasting nationally on CBS
Game Context & Current Form
How have the two college teams been playing? Look below for team records and recent form!
Sam Houston State (0–4, 0–1 in CUSA)
- The Bearkats lost 55–0 to Texas, and oof. That’s a sick blowout.
- SMSU’s rushing attack is averaging under 3.5 yards per carry, and that leaves the offense stuck in long down-and-distance situations.
- The defense can hold early in games, but when drives extend? They give up explosive gains.
New Mexico State (2–2, 0–1 in CUSA)
- The Aggies won two non-conference games but lost their league opener.
- QB Logan Fife has thrown for 762 yards in four games but has also turned the ball over.
- The run defense has allowed steady gains, and that keeps opposing offenses on schedule.
Head-to-Head / Historical Notes
- The two schools have met only twice in football, and the series is tied at 1–1.
- Sam Houston’s recent move to the FBS makes this matchup one of the newer CUSA rivalries.
- NMSU has played better football at home, and Sam Houston’s road record since joining FBS hasn’t been great.
Venue, Weather & Intangibles
- Location: Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, NM
- The altitude (almost 3,900 ft) could play a small role in late fourth-quarter stamina.
- New Mexico’s early October weather is usually dry and marginal, and that supports the passing game.
Latest Betting Odds
If you’re gonna bet on this one, here are the current odds and lines via ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Sam Houston | -2.5 (-115) | -135 | Over 53.5 (EVEN) |
New Mexico State | +2.5 (-105) | +115 | Under 53.5 (-120) |
Implied Probabilities
- Sam Houston State ML –135: 57.5% implied win probability
- New Mexico State ML +115: 46.5% implied win probability
- The market sees this matchup as close; there is little separating the teams outside of certain situational factors.
Offensive & Defensive Matchup Breakdown
Next up? A breakdown of both teams’ offensive and defensive capabilities and how they match up!
- Passing game: SHSU’s quarterbacks combine accurate throws with really costly interceptions, and protection issues have caused too many sacks.
- Ground attack: Averaging under 3.5 yards per carry, they’ve been bottled up on early downs, forcing long passing situations.
- NMSU defense: The Aggies are giving up over 12 yards per completion and have been soft inside against the run; they usually allow 4–5 yards before contact.
- Matchup angle: If SHSU can maintain balance, they can move the ball, but stalled-out drives are still a problem.
- SHSU’s quarterbacks have combined for more interceptions than touchdowns, and the line has already allowed double-digit sacks.
- The run game sits under 3.5 yards per carry, which means too many 3rd-and-longs.
- NMSU’s defense has given up 12+ yards per completion and is soft between the guards; that allows 4–5 yards per rush before contact.
- If SHSU can’t protect the passer, their only chance is hitting quick slants against soft coverage.
- QB Logan Fife averages 225 passing yards per game but has turned it over five times in four games.
- The Aggies feed their backs 25–30 carries; they are looking to control possession.
- SHSU’s front seven has held opponents under 3.8 yards per rush, but their corners have been beaten repeatedly on crossing routes.
- We think SHSU will blitz, but those looks have already been torched for multiple long touchdowns this season.
- SHSU has missed three field goals in four games. NMSU’s kicker is 6-for-7, with a long of 48; he’s more reliable, although their coverage units have given up extra yardage.
- NMSU sits at –1 in turnover margin; SHSU is at –5. If the Bearkats can’t protect the ball? The game might get away from them.
Key Angles, Trends & Betting Factors
Bettors who want a reliable angle for this matchup? Look below for how the numbers and early market signals line up:
Against the Spread (ATS)
- Sam Houston State is winless ATS at 0–4.
- New Mexico State is 2–2 ATS, including a cover in their only home game.
Over/Under
- Totals have hovered in the low 50s.
- NMSU has gone over in two out of four games.
- SHSU games lean Under with the offense averaging less than two touchdowns per game.
Public Betting
- Early splits are showing recreational bettors backing SHSU on reputation alone.
- Professional money has shown up on NMSU because of the home-field advantage.
Line Movement
- The market sits at SHSU -2.5.
- A move to +3 for NMSU would present a really strong buy point for Aggies backers.
Our Best Bets
What are we looking at bet-wise for this game? Here are the three best angles and why we like them!
Bet 1: New Mexico State +2.5 (Confidence 4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- SHSU is 0–4 SU and ATS, averaging only 13.7 points per game against FBS defenses.
- Their offensive line has allowed 14 sacks; it kills drives that are in scoring range.
- NMSU has produced 380+ total yards in three of four games and is way stronger at home.
- Historical data: Home underdogs under a field goal have covered at 56% in the past decade.
Bet 2: New Mexico State +115 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- If you’re taking the +2.5? Most covers would come with outright wins.
- SHSU hasn’t gotten over 17 points in any FBS game; NMSU averages 27 at home since last season.
- The market sets their win chance at 46.5%, but projection models put them closer to 55%.
- This is a value play with plus-money tied to home field and SHSU’s scoring ceiling.
Bet 3: Over 53.5 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- NMSU’s secondary has allowed 12.4 yards per completion, bottom third nationally.
- SHSU’s defense has been worn down because of poor offensive time of possession; it’s under 25 minutes per game.
- Both teams rank mid-pack in plays per game, but also get chunk gains when they’re behind.
- Turnovers from either quarterback could give them short fields and extra points.
Risk Factors / What Could Go Wrong
- If SHSU’s front seven controls the line, it will limit NMSU’s run game and force passing downs.
- If SHSU protects the football, they can drag this into a possession-heavy game and come out on top.
- A slower tempo with long drives increases the likelihood of the Under.
- SHSU’s defensive front creates pressure that could cut off NMSU’s downfield looks and force them into shorter completions.
Sam Houston vs. NMSU Betting Picks & Final Score Prediction
Projected Final Score: New Mexico State 27, Sam Houston 24
We are backing New Mexico State for this game! Why? Because NMSU has the situational advantage over Sam Houston.
SHSU has yet to win a game, so we don’t have much faith that they’ll get their first win on the road, even if the oddsmakers are leaning toward them to beat NMSU.
Either way, it’ll be a close, competitive game; we just don’t feel like Sam Houston will ultimately get the W.
Best Bets Recap
- NMSU +2.5 (4/5)
- NMSU ML (3/5)
- Lean Over 53.5
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