New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears Preview & Prediction (October 19, 2025)
It’s already Week 7 of the NFL season, and it’s time for New Orleans to head to the Windy City for a game against Chicago.
The Bears are hosting the Saints at Soldier Field at 1 pm on Sunday, Oct. 19, and they’ve won three in a row, a streak they obviously want to continue.
Behind QB Caleb Williams, the Bears have found their footing after a not-so-great start to this season. As for this week’s opponents, the Saints? They’re 1-5 so far, and even though they’ve beaten Chicago a lot in the past, this season is definitely different.
Under first-year coach Kellen Moore, New Orleans has not been able to cobble together a complete game, and, to make matters worse, they just can’t seem to hang onto the ball!
Will this be the week the Saints get their act together? Or will the Bears steamroll them? We are gonna break it all down with a comprehensive look at both teams’ seasons so far, recent form, the latest betting odds, market movement, H2H records, historical context, matchups and angles to watch, and what we feel are the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: New Orleans Saints (1-5) @ Chicago Bears (3-2)
- Date & Time: Sunday, October 19, at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
- How to Watch: Broadcasting nationally on FOX
Betting Odds
If you’re gonna bet on this game, here are the latest odds and lines that are up on DraftKings:
| Bet Type | Saints | Bears |
|---|---|---|
Spread | +4.5 (-115) | -4.5 (-105) |
Moneyline | +185 | -225 |
Total | Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110) |
Implied Odds & Edge
- The Saints at +4.5 gives the underdog a half-score buffer.
- The Bears’ moneyline price shows that there is heavier backing of the favorite in this game.
Comparison/Market Notes
- The game opened with a Bears -6.0 spread and a 45.5 total; both lines have moved; the spread shortened to -4.5, and the total went up to 45.5.
Season Profiles & Recent Form
How’s the season been going so far for the Saints and the Bears? Let’s check out their recent form:
New Orleans Saints | 1–5 (0–2 on the road)
Offense
- QB Spencer Rattler has thrown for 1,217 yards this season.
- The Saints rank poorly in third-down efficiency with only 29 conversions on 70 attempts so far this season.
- They have 684 rushing yards to date.
Defense
- The Saints allow about 26.7 points per game.
- Their defense has been porous to big plays; opposing quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdown passes against them in multiple games.
- New Orleans was ranked 18th in pressure rate last season.
Injuries
- Isaac Yiadom (CB, hamstring): Questionable.
- John Ridgeway (DT, shoulder): On injured reserve.
- Julian Blackmon (S, shoulder): Also on IR.
Chicago Bears | 3–2 (1–1 at home)
Offense
- Ranked 14th overall.
- Passing: ~198 yards per game (16th in NFL).
- Rushing: ~119 yards per game (tied for 10th).
- Scoring: 25.3 points per game (tied for 10th).
- QB Caleb Williams: 1,179 passing yards, 9 TDs, and 2 INTs.
- The Bears have generated some explosive plays and lead the league in turnover differential at +8, which gives them short fields and good scoring chances.
Defense
- Overall rank: 27th
- Rush defense: 31st in the league; they allow around 4.7 yards per carry.
- Pass defense: Around 15th in the NFL.
- The front has a hard time creating pressure; Chicago ranks near the bottom in pass rush win rate (23.1%) and overall pressure rate (20.8%).
- Opponents average under 30 points per game against them, meaning there are issues with red-zone containment and missed tackles.
Injuries
- DJ Moore (groin): Expected to play.
- D’Andre Swift (groin): Limited but is expected to be active.
- Cairo Santos (thigh): Out.
- Noah Sewell (concussion): Out, but he’s still in protocol.
- Amen Ogbongbemiga (groin): Questionable as of publication.
Head-to-Head & Historical Context
- The Saints and Bears have met 34 times, and New Orleans has a 19–15 advantage overall.
- In the regular NFL season, New Orleans is ahead 18–13, and they’ve won the last seven meetings.
- Most of the games in the series have been competitive; 16 of 31 regular-season meetings were decided by eight points or less.
- Dennis Allen, who’s now Chicago’s defensive coordinator, spent three seasons as New Orleans’ head coach. His familiarity with the Saints’ route concepts and blocking protections? That could tighten up the early defensive adjustments.
- But New Orleans’ current roster isn’t the same as the power-driven offenses that defined its prior wins over Chicago; they’ve transitioned to a younger, less experienced core that hasn’t shown much reliable scoring efficiency when it’s up against top-10 defenses.
Main Matchup Battles & Angles to Watch
- Chicago pass offense vs Saints secondary: The Saints are allowing almost 27 points per game and have surrendered multiple passing touchdowns in every game this season. Williams’ mobility calls for the New Orleans’ linebackers and safeties to disrupt timing and not give any cushion to the receivers.
- Saints run game / short passes vs. Bears front seven: If Kamara does play, his yards after catch and screen work could pressure Chicago’s linebackers. New Orleans ranks 24th in red zone and third-down defense, so short bursts and play-action are super important.
Red Zone Efficiency
- Chicago’s red zone touchdown percentage is at 14%, and New Orleans is at 10%. That conversion gap? It shows there have been more field-goal attempts than TDs.
- Turnover/special teams: Chicago has a +8 turnover differential. In their Week 6 win, they forced multiple turnovers that directly led to scoring changes.
Injury or Inactivation
- DJ Moore is listed as active, which restores Chicago’s vertical threat and balance across intermediate routes. His presence forces the Saints to commit safety help over the top, and that can open mid-zone looks for D’Andre Swift and Cole Kmet.
- Alvin Kamara is still questionable; if he’s limited or inactive? New Orleans will have to look to short crossers like Rashid Shaheed and put dump-offs on Jamaal Williams, and that could decrease their yards per play and red-zone versatility.
Weather & Field Conditions
- Soldier Field’s natural grass usually slows down receivers’ acceleration when temperatures are colder or the winds are strong.
- The latest forecast says it will be in the mid-50s °F with wind gusts around 10–12 mph, and those are conditions that can flatten ball trajectory and slightly favor run-heavy drives.
Fourth-Down Approach & Clock Control
- Both teams have had a lot of issues extending drives beyond three downs, and that makes fourth-down execution a pretty big deciding factor. Chicago is more likely to press the issue on short-yardage spots near midfield; they use designed movement throws or quick perimeter runs to keep moving.
- New Orleans usually emphasizes field position and defensive containment. Unless Kamara is available and fully involved? The Saints could prioritize possession over aggression and use special teams for points instead of extended series.
Betting Trends & Market Signals
- Saints’ ATS record: 2–4 this season
- Saints’ ATS on the road: 0–1
- Over/Under trends: Saints’ total record is 3–3
Home Underdog/Home Favorite Splits
- Sharp money movement or line shifts (if early line was Bears −5.5 or so)
- Public betting splits (if available)
Situational Angles
- Dog backers vs. road favorites: The Saints are road underdogs (+4.5) in this matchup.
Our Best Bets
We are focusing on three angles and a player prop for our best bets for this game!
1. Bears -4.5 (Confidence 4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Caleb Williams has handled blitz looks and pocket movement way better than most rookies; he posted a +6 TD/INT margin and has solid production on intermediate throws.
- New Orleans’ protection group ranks close to the bottom in sacks allowed (13 through six games), and Chicago’s front four is generating pressure without the need for heavy blitzes.
- At Soldier Field, the Bears’ defensive front limits yards after contact and forces longer second downs, and that favors their coverage shells.
- The line opened at −3.5 and moved to −4.5 after early action on Chicago, and that shows that bettors think there’s a real matchup advantage in the trenches.
2. Under 45.5 (Confidence 3.5/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- The Saints and the Bears rank bottom-five in red-zone touchdown rate (Saints 41%, Bears 45%), and that field-goal-heavy pattern keeps totals down.
- The Saints will attempt to control tempo with Kamara and short passes to limit Rattler’s exposure; Chicago can counter by stringing drives behind Swift and designed rollouts.
- October weather in Chicago means cool air and occasional crosswinds, and that decreases deep-ball accuracy and kicking distance.
- If Chicago gets a lead, we expect them to shorten possessions and bleed the clock, so a shootout is really unlikely.
3. Bears -225 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- This one takes away the risk of a narrow win and keeps backing on the team with the better offensive balance and quarterback play.
- The Saints have averaged 16.7 points in their last four road games and has a lot of difficulty protecting Rattler against edge pressure.
- Williams has completed around 70% of his passes at home, and his mobility gives Chicago a built-in answer to third-and-medium situations.
- For bettors who are building parlays, the moneyline anchors really well with the Under for a correlated play that matches up with the game flow expectations.
4. Prop Pick: D’Andre Swift to Score (Touchdown) — +600 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Swift is in the red zone rotation behind Kmet and Johnson; on 3rd-and-goal or inside the 5, he usually gets downhill handoffs when there are tight gaps.
- New Orleans allows 4.7 yards per carry in the box on runs from inside the 5, which makes backfield carries dangerous when gaps appear.
- Chicago has converted 70% of 3rd-and-1 or less this season, and that positions them within touchdown range. Swift is the back who is used the most in short-yardage touchdown attempts!
Saints vs. Bears odds are already moving. Don’t wait for another shift—compare the best live odds now at our trusted football sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & What Could Kill the Bet
Yes, we think our best bets can definitely pan out, but there are some things we have to account for that could change things:
- Turnovers: A strip sack or tipped-ball interception setting up a short field? That can change game control in an instant.
- Explosive plays: One missed tackle or misread coverage could give an opponent a long touchdown and break the expected scoring pattern.
- Weather: Strong winds or a slick surface could restrict passing range and limit chunk plays.
- In-game injuries: If either team loses a starting tackle, cornerback, or featured back midgame, it means there will have to be adjustments, and it’ll disrupt the rhythm.
- Coaching decisions: Misjudged fourth-down calls, red-zone inefficiency, or wasted timeouts can directly cut into expected point totals.
Why the Bears Should Win & Cover
Final Score Prediction: Bears 24, Saints 14
We are backing Chicago over New Orleans. Why? Because even though the Saints have the better record in the head-to-head matchups, the Bears are performing at a better level so far this season.
Chicago has the better QB, DJ Moore is slated to play, and they’re on a three-game win streak, so we’re convinced it’s a wrap for New Orleans here.
Best Bets Recap
- Bears -4.5 (-105): 4/5
- Under 45.5 (-110): 3.5/5
- Bears Moneyline (-225): 3/5
- D’Andre Swift Anytime TD (+115): 3/5
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