Patriots vs. Bears Player Props: 5 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football was gross last week, and it may be ugly again in Week 7. At least we have two capable offenses in this one, as the New England Patriots visit the Chicago Bears. My favorite Patriots vs. Bears player prop is D’Andre Swift to score a touchdown at -165 on DraftKings, and I also like A.J. Brown over 59.5 receiving yards, Kalif Raymond over 24.5 receiving yards, Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns and DeMario Douglas over 24.5 receiving yards.
Drake Maye has rediscovered last year’s magic in recent weeks, while the Bears have been a bit of a roller coaster in 2026 because of injuries. Both teams are 4-2 and would love a win on a short week. Both also played on Sunday, so neither side has a rest edge, but Chicago gets the home field. Last week’s Thursday card was a rough one: all five plays in Seahawks vs. Broncos missed in a 17-14 overtime game, so it went 0-5.
Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 22, 2026, at Soldier Field in Chicago, streaming on Prime Video. It’s the first Thursday game of the season for both teams. You can bet on the game itself, or try to find value in Thursday Night Football player props. I’ve pinpointed five Patriots vs. Bears player props I’m high on, so join me as I break them down.
Best Patriots vs. Bears Player Props
Here is the full card. All five prices are from DraftKings as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 21, 2026. The confidence column shows how strongly I feel about each play. It is not a probability or a claim of value.
| Player | Prop | Pick | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift | Anytime Touchdown | Yes | -165 | 5/5 |
| A.J. Brown | Receiving Yards (60+) | Over 59.5 | -153 | 5/5 |
| Kalif Raymond | Receiving Yards (25+) | Over 24.5 | -120 | 4/5 |
| Drake Maye | Passing Touchdowns (2+) | Over 1.5 | -123 | 4/5 |
| DeMario Douglas | Receiving Yards (25+) | Over 24.5 | -246 | 4/5 |
Of the six regulated books we priced, DraftKings has the best number on Brown, Raymond and Douglas. It trails slightly on Swift and Maye, so those two are worth shopping.
💡
Where Each Prop Pays the Most Right Now
As of 11:15 a.m. ET on October 21, 2026, BetMGM has Swift to score at -160 (DraftKings and FanDuel -165, BetRivers -195), and Caesars has Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -117 (DraftKings -123, FanDuel and BetRivers -122). DraftKings is best on Brown over 59.5 receiving yards at -153 (BetRivers -155, FanDuel -158), on Raymond over 24.5 at -120 (FanDuel -125, BetMGM -140) and on Douglas over 24.5 at -246 (FanDuel -270, BetMGM -300).
Patriots vs. Bears Odds and Game Info
Chicago is a 3-point home favorite at DraftKings, and the total is 50.5. The market has moved toward the Bears and toward the over: DraftKings opened this game at Bears -1.5 with a 47.5 total on August 13, the first day our odds archive has it, and it was still -1.5 and 48.5 last week.
The move came on Sunday night and Monday. Caleb Williams returned in a win at Atlanta, Romeo Doubs got hurt in New England’s win over the Jets, and DraftKings went from -1.5 to -2.5 on Sunday evening and to -3 by Monday morning, with the total climbing to 50.5 by Monday afternoon.
| Detail | Patriots vs. Bears (DraftKings, Oct. 21) |
|---|---|
| Matchup | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears |
| Date and Time | Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois |
| Spread | Bears -3 (-102) / Patriots +3 (-118) |
| Moneyline | Bears -155 / Patriots +130 |
| Total | 50.5 (Over -115 / Under -105) |
| Implied Score | Bears 26.75, Patriots 23.75 |
| TV / Streaming | Prime Video |
Final injury designations for a Thursday game don’t come out until Wednesday afternoon, so here is where things stood after Tuesday’s practice. For New England, the big news came on Monday, when Doubs (shoulder) went on injured reserve, so he will miss at least four games. Brown (ankle) was limited on both Monday and Tuesday. Maye is listed with a right shoulder but was a full participant both days, and Douglas is not listed.
For Chicago, running back Kyle Monangai (toe, thumb) did not practice Monday or Tuesday, per the Bears’ injury report, after missing the last two games. Linebackers T.J. Edwards and Jack Sanborn also sat out both days. Williams, Swift and Raymond are not listed, and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (hip) was a full participant. Weather shouldn’t be a factor: the National Weather Service has a mostly clear night in Chicago, about 58 degrees at kickoff with a light wind and no rain in the forecast.
1. D’Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown (-165)
Swift scoring a touchdown is my No. 1 TNF player prop in terms of value and confidence. He has hit paydirt six times this year already, all of them on the ground, and a healthy Caleb Williams has helped him produce his two best games of the year.
Why I’m betting it: Williams being active is huge for this offense, as Swift scored five of his six touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 6, two of the three games Williams started. Williams missed three games with a right hamstring injury and came back in a big way at Atlanta (30 of 36, 305 yards). This is also a short-week game, so I expect Chicago to lean on the run game rather than ask too much of a quarterback who just returned. New England’s run defense isn’t bad by any means (91.8 rushing yards allowed per game, ninth-fewest), but it has given up four rushing touchdowns to running backs in six games. And with Monangai banged up again, the work near the goal line should come to Swift.
The key stat: 6 in 6. Swift has six rushing touchdowns in six games, including three in the opener at Carolina and two at Atlanta on Sunday. At -165, you need him to score about 62% of the time to break even.
The risk: Swift has scored in three of six games, not every week, so the price asks a lot. He also isn’t the only back getting goal-line looks: Roschon Johnson out-rushed him at Atlanta (51 yards to 44) and scored a touchdown of his own. If Monangai is cleared on Wednesday, the carries get split three ways. Swift has also been held to 44 or fewer rushing yards in each of his last two games.
The verdict: Anytime touchdown, yes (-165 at DraftKings, -160 at BetMGM). Swift is the clear lead back in an offense that just put up 31 points, and he’s the bet I would target early before Wednesday’s injury news moves it. Confidence: 5/5.
2. A.J. Brown Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-153)
Brown returned last week after missing four games with a high ankle sprain he suffered in the opener. Doubs going down in that game forced him to take on more work than planned, and he was extremely busy, with 10 targets coming his way.
Why I’m betting it: It’s not crazy to wonder if Brown’s workload could be scaled back a bit on a short week on the road, but the Patriots may not have much of a choice. Doubs is on injured reserve, and Chicago has given up a considerable amount of production to opposing receivers in 2026. The Bears are allowing 159.8 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, the 11th-most in the league, per FootballDB’s positional numbers. Brown certainly qualifies as a top option, and even though he has yet to top 27 receiving yards in his two games for New England, a big game feels close.
The key stat: 10 targets. That’s what Brown drew in his first game back, even though he finished with three catches for 27 yards. At -153, you need him to clear 59.5 about 60% of the time.
The risk: His two games with the Patriots produced 26 and 27 yards, so he has to more than double his best New England output. He was charged with two drops on Sunday, and the ankle has kept him limited at practice on Monday and Tuesday. This price has also moved against us: the number I originally liked was 60 or more at -122, and DraftKings has since raised Brown’s main line to 67.5, which pushed the 59.5 alternate to -153.
The verdict: Over 59.5 receiving yards (-153 at DraftKings, the best of the six books we checked). With Doubs out, Brown should be Maye’s top target, and the bar isn’t high for a player of his caliber. Confidence: 5/5.
3. Kalif Raymond Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Raymond has been very quiet lately, but he went off for 84 receiving yards on nine targets with Caleb Williams under center in Week 1. He wasn’t needed much last week, as the Bears built a 31-7 lead over the Falcons, but that could change on TNF.
Why I’m betting it: The big thing is Christian Gonzalez, who returned from a shoulder injury on Sunday and can take one of Luther Burden or Rome Odunze off the table for the Bears. If Chicago goes away from whoever Gonzalez covers, someone stands to benefit, and I think we could see Williams and Raymond fire up their connection again. Raymond had 84 and 40 receiving yards in the first two games Williams started this year.
The key stat: 3 of 6. Raymond has reached 25 receiving yards in half of his games (84, 40 and 90). At -120, you need him to clear 24.5 about 55% of the time.
The risk: The confidence rating dips slightly because Raymond is not a high-volume receiver, and he has missed this number in three straight games (6, 6 and 18 yards). He drew only two targets at Atlanta. Burden (43 targets) and Odunze (33) are the main options in this passing game, and DraftKings’ main line for Raymond is only a yard higher at 25.5, so the market isn’t expecting a big role either.
The verdict: Over 24.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings, -125 at FanDuel). The price is better than when I first looked at it (-146), and out of necessity, he could be busier than usual and hit this prop early. Confidence: 4/5.
4. Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-123)
Drake Maye has enjoyed a resurgence in recent weeks, looking much like the player who finished second in MVP voting in 2025. He’s thrown three or more touchdown passes in each of his last three games, so asking him for two may not be a tall order.
Why I’m betting it: A road date with a solid Bears team may demand that Maye excel through the air, and the matchup looks pretty good on paper. Jordan Love torched Chicago’s secondary two weeks ago (367 yards, two touchdowns), and Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes against the Bears on Sunday, two of them in the fourth quarter after Chicago had built a 31-7 lead. Chicago has been tougher on the run (90.5 yards allowed per game, eighth-fewest) than on the pass (211.8, 14th).
The key stat: 10 touchdowns, 1 interception. That’s Maye’s line over his last three games (three at Buffalo, four against Las Vegas and three against the Jets). At -123, you need him to throw two or more about 55% of the time.
The risk: The hot streak is three games long. Before it, Maye threw one touchdown and six interceptions in the first three weeks, including zero touchdowns in two straight games. He is also playing without Doubs, who caught a 42-yard touchdown on Sunday before leaving with the shoulder injury. Two of Penix’s three scores against Chicago came after the Bears had pulled most of their starters, so I wouldn’t read too much into that game.
The verdict: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-123 at DraftKings, -117 at Caesars). A 50.5 total gives New England an implied 23.75 points, which leaves room for two scores through the air. Betting on Maye’s hot run to continue, regardless of game flow, looks like a strong TNF play. Confidence: 4/5.
5. DeMario Douglas Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-246)
My final Thursday Night Football player prop is Douglas to hit 25 or more receiving yards. This doesn’t feel outlandish at all when you consider the matchup, plus sheer necessity.
Why I’m betting it: On one hand, the Bears have given up some big performances through the air lately, with Love and Penix combining for 592 passing yards and five touchdowns in the last two weeks. Chicago could also lead in this game, which would force the Patriots to air it out on the road. More than that, though, Douglas may simply be needed. With Doubs on injured reserve, there are targets to go around, and Douglas caught seven of his eight targets for 86 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
The key stat: 3 of 4. Douglas has cleared this number in two straight games and in three of his last four (38, 15, 65 and 86 yards). At -246, you need him to clear 24.5 about 71% of the time.
The risk: The price. When I first looked at this prop, 25 or more was -140. Once Doubs went on injured reserve, DraftKings raised Douglas’ main line to 38.5, and the 24.5 alternate jumped to -246, the most expensive bet on this card by a wide margin. He also had 20, 9 and 15 yards in three of his first four games, so the floor isn’t as safe as the last two weeks suggest.
The verdict: Over 24.5 receiving yards (-246 at DraftKings, -270 at FanDuel). I still like the role, but if laying that much doesn’t appeal to you, DraftKings’ main line of 38.5 is -112, and BetMGM and BetRivers have 34.5 at -115. Confidence: 4/5.
Patriots vs. Bears Player Prop Betting Strategy
Usually I want to go into Thursday Night Football with some type of stance. Rather than predict game flow for what should be a competitive game, I am playing on player roles, roster health and matchups.
My slight lean is to the Bears since it’s a prime-time game on a short week in Chicago, and the books agree with Chicago as a 3-point favorite. I do think the matchup presents some favorable spots, and with a 50.5 total, there’s a chance we get a mini-shootout. That should give most of these props a chance to hit. We’re not getting huge prices, and I am not targeting any plus-money bets for this game, but I think these plays still offer reasonable value. Here is how that thinking applies to this card:
| Factor | What to Check | How It Applies Thursday |
|---|---|---|
| Roster Health | Who is out and whose role grows | Doubs on injured reserve is the case for Brown and Douglas. Monangai’s status decides how many carries Swift gets. |
| Matchups | What each defense has allowed | Chicago has been softer against the pass than the run, which helps Maye, Brown and Douglas. |
| Game Script | How the spread and total shape play calling | A 3-point spread and a 50.5 total point to a close game with points on both sides. |
| Touchdown Exposure | How many bets need a score to win | Two of the five (Swift and Maye). The other three are yardage bets. |
| Price | How much you have to lay to win $100 | All five are minus money. Douglas (-246) is by far the most expensive, and Raymond (-120) is the cheapest. |
| Short-Week News | Wednesday’s final injury report and Thursday’s inactives | Brown’s ankle and Monangai’s toe can each move a bet on this card. Inactives are announced about 90 minutes before kickoff. |
Best Week 7 TNF Player Prop Bets
If I had to pick just one Week 7 TNF player prop, it would be D’Andre Swift to score. He has six rushing touchdowns in six games, Caleb Williams is back, and Kyle Monangai has missed two straight games.
Chicago could be without Monangai again, and if so, Swift scoring may be one of the top bets on the board. It’s a bet you’ll want to target early, because the price can move once Wednesday’s designations come out.
Last week’s TNF player props went 0-5 in an uglier game than expected, but this one should be more betting-friendly. Even if it’s not, the bar is low on the Brown receiving yardage, while I think situational football and injuries to teammates could work together to get us there on the Raymond and Douglas props. These teams last met on November 10, 2024, when the Patriots won 19-3 at Soldier Field in a game between two rookie quarterbacks.
Just make sure you play these picks separately, as parlays create extra risk where one leg can ruin a strong list of plays. If you want a refresher on how these markets are priced and settled, our guide to NFL player props walks through it. Prices on a Thursday game move all week, and they move fastest when inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff, so re-check every number on our live NFL odds board and at your book before you bet.
Play Safe: Gambling should be fun, not stressful. Set limits, stick to your budget, and never chase losses. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET or visit ncpgambling.org. For more resources, see our Responsible Gambling page.
Week 7 TNF Player Props FAQ
Quick answers to the questions bettors ask most about this game, based on the October 21, 2026 board.
What Are the Best Thursday Night Football Player Prop Bets for Week 7?
D’Andre Swift to score an anytime touchdown (-165) is my favorite Week 7 TNF player prop. I also like A.J. Brown over 59.5 receiving yards (-153), Kalif Raymond over 24.5 receiving yards (-120), Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-123) and DeMario Douglas over 24.5 receiving yards (-246). Those are DraftKings prices from Wednesday morning, October 21, 2026.
Who Is the Best Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick for Patriots vs. Bears?
D’Andre Swift is my top anytime touchdown pick for Thursday Night Football at -165 on DraftKings (-160 at BetMGM). He has six rushing touchdowns through six games, and Chicago could lean on him near the goal line, especially if Kyle Monangai misses a third straight game with his toe injury.
What Are the Best Drake Maye Player Props for Week 7?
Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-123 at DraftKings) is my favorite Maye prop for Patriots vs. Bears. He has thrown three or more touchdown passes in three straight games, and Chicago has been easier to throw on than to run on this season. The risk is that he threw just one touchdown in the first three weeks.
How Does Romeo Doubs’ Injury Affect the Patriots Player Props?
Romeo Doubs went on injured reserve with a shoulder injury on October 19, so he will miss this game. That frees up targets for A.J. Brown and DeMario Douglas, and the books have noticed: Douglas’ receiving line at DraftKings rose to 38.5, which moved his 25-plus alternate from -140 to -246.
Can Patriots vs. Bears Be a High-Scoring Thursday Night Football Game?
It can. DraftKings has the total at 50.5, up from 47.5 when it opened in August, and both offenses have been productive lately. Short-week games can be unpredictable, though, which is why player roles and matchups drive this card more than a shootout does.
Should I Parlay These Week 7 Thursday Night Football Player Props?
I’d bet them separately. A parlay pays more, but every leg has to win, so one miss sinks the ticket. With two of these five props tied to injury news (Brown’s ankle and Monangai’s toe), single bets give you more flexibility.
Where Can I Find the Best Patriots vs. Bears Player Prop Odds?
Compare prices at the licensed sportsbooks in your state, such as DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers and Fanatics. On Wednesday morning, BetMGM had the best Swift touchdown price and Caesars the best Maye price, while DraftKings led on Brown, Raymond and Douglas. Odds and player availability change before kickoff, so check again before you bet.
Latest Blog Posts
