2025 Belmont Stakes Preview & Best Bets

Saratoga always hosts the Belmont Stakes, and although there isn’t a Triple Crown in play, the field of horses will still be a sight to behold. 

We’ve got the Derby winner. We’ve got the Preakness winner. And they’re running against each other in the final jewel of the series. Sovereignty and Journalism, the two horses who’ve already proven that they belong, will now meet at a shorter distance, on a different track, and with new challengers nipping at their hooves.

Keep scrolling for all of the Saratoga Springs details, including who’s running, who’s out in front, and our picks for the best bets!

Event Details: What You Need to Know

• Date & Time: Saturday, June 7, 2025, at 7:04 pm ET
• Location: Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Springs, NY
• Distance: 1¼ miles (shortened due to Belmont Park renovations)
• Purse: $2 million
• Broadcast: FOX and the FOX Sports app

The Contenders: Who’s in the Running?

There’s a ton of depth here. We’ve got headline-making horses, and horses with different running styles, proven back-class, and some big barns backing them.

• Sovereignty (2-1): Derby winner. Trained by Bill Mott. Skipped the Preakness by design to keep him fresh for this race.
• Journalism (8-5): Winner of the Preakness. Trained by Michael McCarthy. The only one of the group to run all three Triple Crown races, and he’s kept his form beautifully.
• Baeza (4-1): Third in the Derby, running on well late. John Shirreffs brings him in with a steady hand and a good prep.
• Rodriguez (6-1): Missed the Derby with a bruised foot but looked great in training at Saratoga. Previously took the Wood Memorial with ease.
• Hill Road (10-1): Won the Peter Pan with a clean trip and has a stalking style that fits this field.
• Heart of Honor (30-1): Brit-bred longshot with not much North American form, but connections are confident that he’ll be able to handle the distance.
• Crudo (15-1): Comes from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Might appreciate the cutback in the trip.
• Uncaged (30-1): Also from Pletcher. Hard to gauge, as he’s never been up against a field that’s this strong.

Race Analysis: Breaking Down the Field

The distance drop to 1¼ miles levels the playing field a little bit, but Saratoga’s deep surface can still penalize the horses who move too early.

• Sovereignty likes to settle in early and come with one sustained run. He’ll need a clean trip and a bit of pace up front to get the setup that he wants.
• Journalism is more flexible; he’s shown he can press the pace or take back and close. That kind of versatility gives his rider more options in a big field.
• Baeza has a grinding, late-run style. If it turns into a dogfight in the final furlong, he’ll be right up there.
• Rodriguez could go forward early to stay out of trouble. He has enough tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and pounce on the turn for home.
• Hill Road is the wild card; he’ll be within striking range but might need others to come back to him.

Best Bets: Our Top Picks

Who do we have for best bets? Look below!

Betting Tips: How to Wager Smart

Belmont Day draws a lot of attention, which means there’s more money in the pools and bigger changes in the odds! Concentrate on the structure, don’t wager with only your emotions, and follow the betting tips below:

• Decide your budget ahead of time. Set a limit and treat it like it’s a fixed cost, not something that you’d change mid-card.
• Don’t rely on one outcome. Use combos, like win bets backed by exactas or trifectas! It gives you extra ways to stay in the race.
• Pay attention to how the board moves late. When a horse from a proven barn starts taking late money, there’s usually a good reason behind it.

The best odds aren’t always posted early, so wait until the market settles and act when the price lines up with your read on the race! Check out our recommendations for the top horse betting apps to find the latest odds.

Festival Highlights: Not Just a Horse Race

Saratoga Springs is a gorgeous place, and the horse race isn’t the only thing happening! It’s a full slate of events that are all tied to New York’s racing tradition, food, fashion, and entertainment. There are a lot of fun events around the track leading up to the Belmont if you want to make a trip out of it! 

June 4–8: The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival

Not bad for a race that’s built around a 2,000-pound animal and two minutes of thundering hooves tearing up the dirt. 

Final Verdict: Our Belmont Stakes 2025 Predictions

You might think it is, but Belmont isn’t a two-horse race. Sovereignty got the job done at Churchill, and Journalism has held it together during a hard spring. But Rodriguez isn’t here by accident; he skipped the first two for a reason and has been working like this was always the target.

Our Final Prediction

Sovereignty passed on the Preakness and has been pointed here with no interruption. His gallops at Saratoga have looked graceful and smooth, his energy’s been consistent, and nothing in his prep suggests any kind of regression. If he finds position early and avoids the traffic, he’s the one most likely to finish in front!

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff Prediction (June 7, 2025) – Roland Garros Women’s Final

And then there were two. Facing off in the French Open finals are the No. 1 and 2 tennis players in the world, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.

Neither player has claimed the La Coupe des Mousquetaires, and both want that trophy and the Grand Slam title. But who wants it more? And which one will be Queen of the Roland Garros clay? We are gonna break it all down for you and give you our best bets for the Women’s Final!

Match Details

• Event: 2025 French Open Women’s Singles Final
• Date: Saturday, June 7
• Start Time: 3:00 pm local time (9:00 am ET)
• Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
• Broadcast: : TNT Sports, Discovery+

Match Overview

No matter who wins, this is going to be some good tennis. No. 1 vs. No. 2? One of these women is going to get her first French Open title!

• The first French Open final meeting between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff
• Sabalenka (No. 1) comes in hot after defeating three-time champ Iga Świątek in the semis
• Gauff (No. 2) is chasing her second career Grand Slam after winning the 2023 US Open
• Head-to-head is dead even: 5-5—no clear edge, no mental advantage
• Sabalenka has never won in Paris, but this is her third Slam final in two years
• Gauff returns to the Roland Garros final after falling short here in 2022
• Expect a ton of baseline exchanges, huge first serves, and long rallies
• Emotions play a big role in finals. Sabalenka and Gauff kill the ball,  but the latter has been historically calmer in important points

Head-to-Head Snapshot

• Total Meetings: 10
• Record: Tied at 5-5
• Recent Encounter: Sabalenka beat Gauff in straight sets at the 2025 Madrid Open Final
• Grand Slam Finals: Gauff is ahead 1-0; she beat Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open Final

Player Insights

The final pits two very different clay-court approaches against each other. Sabalenka has a lot of raw power and first-strike aggression, and Gauff does too! But Coco also relies on court coverage, anticipates defensive hits, and has the ability to drag out points.

Betting Odds

If you’re putting some money down on the Women’s Final, here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:

Best Bets

A lot could happen between these two powerhouses, but here is what we think are your best bets for the Women’s Final:

Betting Strategy

If you look at how Sabalenko and Gauff have been playing recently and they’re competitive history, a combo of bets could be a triple threat:

• Primary Bet: Sabalenka to Win (-200)
• Value Bet: Sabalenka to Win 2-1 (+260)
• Over/Under Bet: Over 22.5 Total Games (-105)

Sabalenka vs. Gauff: What to Expect

Sabalenka enters this final coming off the biggest win of her clay season. She won in straight sets over Świątek, held serve under pressure, and hit through one of the best defenders in the game. She’s been flattening out her forehand, sticking her backhand crosscourt so it lands deep, and putting herself in position to finish off points early.

Gauff hasn’t been up against the same level of play on her way through the draw, but she’s done her job and then some, winning in straight sets, moving really well, and avoiding the extended matches that have worn her out in the past. Her serve is holding up better than it did in previous Slams, and she’s been way more disciplined with her forehand, cutting back on errors from that side. Coco has always been a fighter!

Our Final Match Prediction

– Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff 2-1 in sets

Sabalenka’s power gives her the advantage, but Gauff’s defense and discipline will make her earn every point. This one’s not ending in two sets.

From a betting perspective, Sabalenka is priced at -200 for good reason; she has the heavier game and has been more battle-tested in big-match moments this season. But Gauff’s defense and fight might make this a long match.

We’d say that the best angle is probably the Over 22.5 games (-105), especially if Gauff stretches one set into a tiebreak or forces a third. Sabalenka 2–1 (+260) also has value if you think Gauff can stay in rallies long enough to take a set, but not the match.

It’s gonna be a physical, emotional final with long baseline exchanges and pressure on every hold. Sabalenka will try to hit on her terms. Gauff will make her hit one more ball. Their different playing styles is why this matchup has been dead even in their 10 career meetings, and it’s why this one could end up being a marathon of a match.

Make sure to watch the line movement before the first serve! If the price on Gauff goes up, the value only gets better for those who are expecting it to go to three sets.

Stay on top of the latest odds with one of the top online sportsbooks. You can also find generous bonuses to help your wagers go even further.

What Is Implied Probability in Sports Betting? (And Why It Matters)

You’ve heard the expression “read between the lines,” right? Did you know that with implied probability, you can read between the odds in sports betting? You can!

The odds are more than the numbers that show you what a bet pays. They’re giving you clues as well, like how probable a sportsbook thinks that outcome is. They don’t just set lines for funsies. Oddsmakers are building in probability, risk, and margin. And if you know how to translate those odds into actual percentages? You can see what the book sees!

That’s all implied probability is—a way to take any set of odds and turn them into a number you can work with. Once you start using it, you’ll have a much better sense of if a bet makes sense, if the line offers value, and how often you have to win to break even.

We are gonna unpack the ins and outs of implied probability; what it means, how to calculate it for different odds formats, and how to apply it to your betting strategy. We’ll also go over real examples from recent games, show you how you can better spot value, and flag the common mistakes that trip up a lot of bettors!

What Is Implied Probability?

Implied probability is the percentage chance of something happening based on the odds that the sportsbook gives you. It’s not a guess or a feeling—it’s what the odds are really saying underneath.

If a team is listed at -200, that means the sportsbook believes they win about two out of every three times, or roughly 66.7%. If they’re +150, that suggests a 40% chance. Different odds, different expectations. What you’re doing is turning those odds into a percentage so you can compare it to your own prediction.

Why do sportsbooks care about implied probability? Because it’s how they build lines, and, of course, profit. The odds show what they think will happen, plus a little extra baked in to protect themselves. That extra? It’s called the vig, and it’s their margin. When you add up the implied probabilities for all possible outcomes in a market, it usually totals more than 100%. And that’s how they stay ahead.

It’s also why knowing implied probability matters for bettors! If the odds say that a team has a 60% chance to win but you think it’s closer to 70%, there’s value. You’ve found an opening between what the book thinks and what you believe. And that’s where smart bets are.

Look below for a cheat sheet that shows how common moneylines translate into implied probability:

Once you know how to convert odds into percentages, it’s so much easier to see if the numbers make sense, or if the line is off just enough to be worth your money!

How to Calculate Implied Probability From Odds

To get the implied probability from any odds, you use a formula, and the formulas all depend on the odds format (American, decimal, or fractional):

Putting these formulas into practice looks like this:

• Negative odds: odds / (odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability
• Positive odds: 100 / (odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability 

This reference table can help you visualize the most common conversions:

The conversion shows that decimal 2.50 is 40.0%, and American +200 is 33.3%, and it works out the same as the formulas above.  If you’re comfortable with fractions, the fractional odds formula is (denominator/(numerator + denominator))×100. But in the U.S. markets, you’ll mostly use decimal or American. The important thing is always to double-check the math so you know exactly what chance the odds imply.

Why Implied Probability Matters to Bettors

If you’ve ever looked at a betting line and wondered, “Is that actually a good price?”—you’re l halfway there to getting why implied probability matters!

Once you translate odds into a percentage, you’re not hypothesizing anymore. You’re comparing. You can see if a line reflects reality, or if it’s skewed just enough to give you an edge. That’s how sharp bettors spot value.

The following is how implied probability helps:

• It lets you measure value so you can directly compare the odds to your own projected probabilities. If there’s an imbalance, you might have yourself a +EV bet.
• It exposes mispriced lines. Not all sportsbooks nail the number. If you’re tracking line movement or working with your own models, you’ll see the places where the market is off.
• It helps find positive expected value (+EV) bets. Instead of randomly betting on underdogs or favorites, you’ll be betting where the math says you’ve got an advantage.
• It cuts out emotion. No more betting based on instinct or team loyalty. You’re backing the numbers, not the narratives.
• It opens up strategies like arbitrage and hedging. When you know how to read probability across multiple books? You can find holes and use them to your advantage.

If you’re trying to bet more seriously, this is one of the most important tools you can add to your playbook. Odds give you more than payouts; they give you good insight. And implied probability is how you read it.

Implied Probability vs. True Probability

Ok, this part is really interesting. Implied probability tells you what the sportsbook thinks the chance of something happening is, including their built-in margin. True probability is what you believe the real chances are, based on your own analysis.

And these two are rarely the same.

If a sportsbook sets odds at -150 on a team, it implies a 60% chance of winning. But maybe you’ve done your homework and dug into matchups, injuries, weather, historical trends, and you think it’s closer to 68%.

That difference really matters. You know that they’re underestimating the team. That’s where the value is!

Here’s a side-by-side to show how that would play out:

That extra 8% edge turns what looks like a standard bet into one with positive EV. It might not seem like a lot, but over hundreds of bets? It adds up.

How to Use Implied Probability in Your Betting Strategy

Once you know how to break down odds into implied probability? You aren’t just reacting to lines—you’re evaluating them. You aren’t randomly guessing which team feels like the better pick. You’re comparing what the book is saying to what you believe will happen.

Below is how to put it into practice with your betting strategy!

Value Betting

The most direct use of implied probability is to spot value, aka bets, where you think the real chance of winning is higher than the odds suggest.

Start by calculating the implied probability from the odds. Then, compare that to your own estimated probability for the same outcome. If your number is higher? You’ve found a bet with potential value!

Use this formula to check:

• Value = (Your estimated probability × odds) – 1

If the result is positive, you’ve got a bet worth considering. Here’s a quick example:

• The odds are +150 (which implies a 40% chance).
• You believe the team has a 50% chance of winning.
• Decimal odds of +150 = 2.50

Now plug that in:

• (0.50 × 2.50) – 1 = 0.25, or +25% expected value

That’s a good bet on paper!

Bankroll Management

Implied probability also helps you figure out which bets you should pass on. If the odds imply a higher chance than what you believe is realistic, it’s probably not worth your money. Betting into low-value markets, even if they’re favorites, is how you burn through your bankroll.

Use implied probability as a filter. If a line doesn’t make sense after the math? Pass. You’re not trying to bet more, you’re trying to bet better.

Live Betting Adjustments

Live betting moves fast, and odds are updating in real-time. Implied probability is a good way to hone in without distractions.

If you’re watching a football game and a team’s odds change from -150 to +110 after a turnover, the swing changes the implied probability from 60% down to 47.6%. If you think the market is overreacting, and the team still has, say, a 55% chance to win? There could be value there.

You can apply the same logic to props, cross-sport parlays, and player markets. Instead of chasing bets because they “feel right,” pay attention to the numbers that tell you where the edge is.

Examples: Implied Probability in Action

The best way to make implied probability concrete is to see it in action! Below are three examples of games and their odds

Different Books, Different Odds

Odds are different from sportsbook to sportsbook, which changes the implied probability. 

FanDuel had Jacksonville at +176 (36.2% implied) vs. BetMGM at +165 (37.7% implied). That 11-cent difference in the moneyline? It changes the implied chance. If you believe Jacksonville has, say, a 40% true win probability, the FanDuel line would give positive expected value, and the BetMGM line would not. Watching multiple books (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, etc.) lets bettors hunt for advantages by spotting the odds discrepancies.

Across the above examples, the formula holds: implied probabilities turned large betting lines into clear percentages. In each case, the underdogs had low implied chances (around 7–36%) but still won. When you compute the implied odds, you are able to quantify just how much of a surprise an upset was.

5 Common Mistakes Bettors Make with Implied Probability

Even if you understand implied probability, there’s still a big margin for error! The following are the most common mistakes bettors make.

Tools That Help You Calculate Implied Probability Instantly

You don’t have to be a mathematical whiz to run the numbers or mess with formulas every time you check a line. There are tools that do it for you! 

We have our own Betting Odds Calculator. Just drop in American, decimal, or fractional odds, and it’ll instantly show you the implied probability, potential payout, and profit. Doesn’t matter if you’re checking a single line or comparing across sportsbooks—it saves time and eliminates errors.

And if you’re building a full-on strategy, you can use that in combination with our AI-powered betting pick tools. They estimate true win probability based on team stats, market movement, and historical trends. Then you can compare your number to the sportsbooks and see where there’s an edge.

We have more tools that will help your strategy on our Sports Betting Tools page! Here’s what they include:

• The Odds Converter / Implied Probability Calculator
• Expected Value Calculator
• Line Shopping Tools
• AI Predictions
• Parlay Value Breakdown

If you’re really serious about betting with data, our tools should be a part of your regular routine!

Conclusion: Don’t Just Bet—Bet with the Math on Your Side

Every set of odds tells a story, but they aren’t written in plain language. Implied probability helps you translate those stories into something you can use, like how confident the sportsbook is, how much margin they’ve built in, and where there might be an opening.

You aren’t chasing longshots or fading the public. No, you’re measuring value with numbers and building a strategy around percentages, not guesstimates. And that’s how you build a real betting strategy! It’s all in the math.

Here’s a brief recap of all things implied probability and how it works in sports betting:

• Odds show you how likely an outcome is, according to a sportsbook.
• You can break any odds format into implied probability using simple math.
• Comparing that to your own projections helps you find underpriced bets.
• Using calculators and tools keeps your process clear and consistent. 
• When you use implied probability, you’re betting with a plan, not just reacting impulsively or emotionally.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Dallas Wings Betting Prediction (June 6, 2025)

The Sparks and Wings go into Friday night’s game with similar problems: three straight losses and a season that’s getting away from them.

Los Angeles is 2–6 and coming off another late-game collapse. Dallas is 1–7 and still hasn’t figured out how to finish games with any resemblance of structure. The Sparks rely on perimeter shooting. The Wings play fast, get to the rim, and rebound well, but they haven’t defended for a full four quarters.

The main variable is Paige Bueckers. She remains questionable with a concussion. If she’s cleared? The Wings gain a decision-maker, and their half-court offense will look totally different.

Game Details

• Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks (2-6) vs. Dallas Wings (1-7)
• Date & Time: Friday, June 6, at 9:30 pm ET
• Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
• Broadcast: ION
• Betting Odds (via ESPN BET): Dallas Wings favored by 1.5 points; Over/Under set at 164.5 points

Team Overviews

The Sparks rely on guard scoring and outside shooting, but are short in the frontcourt. Dallas rebounds well and scores in the paint, but without Bueckers? Their half-court offense is stagnant in late possessions.

Los Angeles Sparks (Record: 2–6)

Dallas Wings (Record: 1–7)

Statistical Comparison

The numbers show two teams that can score, but neither one is defending well. The Wings rebound slightly better and shoot more efficiently from the field, and the Sparks rely more on perimeter shooting to stay in games. Look below for the stats:

Injury Report

There are injuries that affect rotation length and matchups on both teams. The Sparks are short in the frontcourt. The Wings may be without their primary ball-handler.

Sparks

• Cameron Brink (F): Out until June 17 – interior defense suffers without her
• Rickea Jackson (F): Game-time decision – averaging 9.2 PPG off the bench
• Rae Burrell (G): Out until June 29

Wings

• Paige Bueckers (G): Questionable – missed last game with a concussion
• Tyasha Harris (G): Out – rotation guard and second-unit distributor

Betting Trends

Did somebody say slumps? The Sparks have failed to cover spreads in most of their games. Dallas, despite having a poor record, has at least been more reliable for bettors.

Best Bets

No need to overthink this one. Dallas plays faster, scores more consistently, and is less likely to stall out if Bueckers is cleared. The Sparks may be able to score, but they give up runs way too easily and have had a hard time protecting leads. Here are the two best bets we think have value:

Final Thoughts & Prediction

The Sparks get most of their offense through Plum, but don’t have enough reliable post presence with Brink still being sidelined. Dallas generates points in the paint and draws fouls regularly, but without Bueckers? Ogunbowale has had to force too many looks when the defense closes ranks. If Jackson is cleared, L.A. has another scoring threat, but they’ve broken down defensively in fourth quarters throughout the season.

Final Score Prediction: Dallas Wings 85 | Los Angeles Sparks 84

Dallas finds better looks in the final five minutes. The total clears in the fourth.

Don’t forget to always bet responsibly and never gamble with money you can’t afford to lose.

Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers Game 2 Prediction (June 6, 2025)

The Oilers opened the 2025 Stanley Cup Final the same way they did during their last championship run: by winning Game 1 in OT.

Only this time, it didn’t stretch into the early hours like the 1990 opener did, when Petr Klima ended it in the third extra period. Leon Draisaitl buried a power-play goal with 31 seconds left in the first overtime, which is a nice start for Edmonton after they dropped the first three games of the 2024 Final and eventually lost in seven.

The Panthers were up 3-1 in the second period after Sam Bennett scored his second of the night, his 12th of the postseason, before coming back for a 4-3 win.

Not to brag, but we predicted the score (Oilers 4, Panthers 3 in OT) and are feeling like Nostradamus over here. 

Game 2 is at Rogers Place in Alberta, the Oilers have the lead, and it’ll be a barn burner. Can the Panthers even it up? Look below for a preview of what we think and our best bets for the second matchup!

Game Overview

• Matchup: Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers
• Series Status: – Oilers lead 1-0
• Date & Time: Friday, June 6, at 8:00 pm ET
• Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
• Broadcast: TNT/truTV/Max

Recap of Game 1

Game 1 was fast and tense—exactly what you’d expect from these two high-powered offenses, but it was the Oilers who skated off with the win.

• Final Score: Oilers 4, Panthers 3 (OT)

Key Moments

• Leon Draisaitl finished it with a power-play goal in the final seconds of OT.
• Connor McDavid added two assists, bringing his playoff total to 22.
• Florida had a 3-1 lead but couldn’t hold off Edmonton’s push in the back half of the game.

Notable Stats

• Edmonton ended with 46 shots on goal; Florida had 32.
• On the power play: Panthers went 1-for-4, and the Oilers went 2-for-5.

Team Insights

Game 1 gave us a good look at each team’s strengths, but it also exposed a few problem spots that they’ll need to sort out before Game 2.

Florida Panthers

Early pressure was working, but their late-game control got away from them.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers outlived a shaky start because of their special teams and top-line execution.

Key Players to Watch

Game 2 may turn on how the players below handle the high-pressure minutes and special teams situations!

Panthers

• Matthew Tkachuk: Was limited in Game 1. Florida needs him to up the intensity and find more scoring chances.
• Aleksander Barkov: Tasked with slowing down McDavid’s line while still trying to contribute on the other end.

Oilers

• Connor McDavid: Had two assists in the opener and keeps driving Edmonton’s offense with speed and accurate placement.
• Leon Draisaitl: Finished with two goals, including the OT that sealed the deal for the Oilers. He found space between defenders and was an obstacle for Florida down low, especially on the power play.

Betting Odds & Trends

Here’s where the odds and lines currently sit via ESPN BET:

Betting Trends

The betting trends show what we’ve witnessed on the ice: Florida is always competitive on the road, but Edmonton’s recent form, especially on home ice, makes them a tough out.

Florida Panthers

• Florida handles the road really well and picked up wins in 5 of their last 7 away games.
• They’ve been reliable as underdogs, going 11-8 straight-up in that role this season.
• High-scoring games follow them; 31 of their last 55 road games have hit the over.

Edmonton Oilers

• The Oilers have been on fire at Rogers Place; they’ve won 7 of their last 8 at home.
• Overall, they’ve won 7 of their last 8 games, and we don’t see any signs of them slowing down.
• Goals have come regularly in their home playoff games; the total’s gone over in 5 of 8 so far.

Best Bets

Game 1 set up the playoffs with a high-scoring, back-and-forth finish, so there’s every reason to expect another banger. Here’s where we think are the best bets going into Game 2!

Game 2 Outlook: What Bettors Should Expect

Game 1 told us a lot. The Panthers were the better team for stretches, but couldn’t hang on to their lead.  The Oilers started out slow but were bailed out by special teams. Both teams have scoring depth. Neither looked totally locked in defensively. And that means we’ll see another high-paced, mistake-driven game.

Edmonton’s top-end talent carried them; McDavid picked apart Florida’s structure and Draisaitl went to town on them on the power play. The concern? They still give up way too much in the first period. Florida jumped on them for three goals in 24 minutes. If that keeps happening, Edmonton’s margin for error is slim.

Florida’s forecheck caused problems, and Bobrovsky kept it from getting worse. But they gave the Oilers five power plays, including one in overtime. They can’t afford to hand chances to the league’s best unit. They’ll also need more from Tkachuk, who wasn’t much of a factor in Game 1.

Final Score Prediction: Oilers 5, Panthers 4 (OT)

Florida pushes it to OT again, but Edmonton finds the winner. It’s the same result, just a different breakdown.

Home ice leans toward Edmonton, but Florida has covered the puck line in 5 of their last 7 road games and rarely gets run out of a building. Add in the scoring trends (seven goals in Game 1, strong over records on both sides), and bettors are looking at another high-scoring, one-goal type of result.

Best Bets Recap:

• Over 6.5 Goals (-122)
• Draisaitl Anytime Goal
• Panthers +1.5 (-225)

Ready to use our betting picks to place a wager on Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals? Head over to our list of the top sports betting sites to get in on the action!

Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction (June 6, 2025) – Roland Garros Semifinal

Top seed Jannik Sinner hasn’t lost a Grand Slam match this year, and now he’s up against sixth seed Djokovic, and it’ll be a test. Novak is after his 25th Grand Slam title, and he’s not easy to beat at Roland Garros.

The two players are tied at 4–4 in head-to-heads, but Sinner has won the last three, one being a straight-setter in Shanghai. Sinner’s the favorite on form, but Djokovic has made his career out of not buckling under pressure.

Who will make it to the finals in Paris? Will Sinner nab his first French Open win? We’re serving up all you need to know!

Match Details

• Date: Friday, June 6
• Time: 11:25 am EDT
• Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
• Surface: Clay
• How to Watch (TV): TNT Sports 1 and 4
• Streaming: Discovery+

Betting Odds

If you’re betting on Sinner vs. Djokovic, look below for the current odds and lines via DraftKings Sportsbook:

• Jannik Sinner: – 450
• Novak Djokovic: +330
• Over/Under Total Games: Over 36.5 (-115), Under 36.5 (-120)

Head-to-Head Snapshot

Sinner and Djokovic have played eight times, splitting the series evenly at 4–4, but Sinner is favored based on recent results:

• All-Time Record: Tied 4-4

Recent Meetings

• 2024 Australian Open Semifinal: Sinner def. Djokovic (retirement – injury)
• 2023 ATP Finals: Sinner def. Djokovic in straight sets
• 2023 Wimbledon Quarterfinal: Djokovic def. Sinner in three sets

Player Form & Stats

Sinner has handled every opponent in straight sets and hasn’t been pushed past 6–4 in a single set. Djokovic has had a rougher road; he’s dropped sets and played longer matches, but his control of important points hasn’t diminished.

Key Match Factors

Sinner has controlled his matches from the first serve, won in straight sets, and keeps opponents from dragging out points. Djokovic has taken longer routes, but he is always composed in deciding moments. It could come down to how well each of them manages service games under pressure and maintains focus in the longer baseline rallies.

• Sinner’s Grand Slam Form: 19–0 this season with few breaks of serve and minimal time spent defending from the baseline in rallies.
• Djokovic’s Experience: Playing his 49th major semifinal, he has the ability to change his strategy mid-match and stay calm when the score is close.
• Physical Matchup: Sinner has more speed and range. Djokovic continues to manage his movement well, even during marathon matches.
• Pressure Management: Sinner has closed sets when he’s ahead. Djokovic handles high-pressure return games better than anyone else on tour.

Best Bets

Want to know what we are checking out? Here are our three picks for your best bets:

FYI: Check the latest lines before you make any bets! The markets can move before the match starts.

Sinner vs. Djokovic: Our Final Take

Final Match Prediction

– Jannik Sinner def. Novak Djokovic – 3 sets to 1 (6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2)

Sinner uses his speed and shot accuracy to get past Djokovic in four sets.

The top-ranked player in the world is pitted against a three-time French Open champion, but Sinner is unbeaten in majors this season and has advanced through the draw in Paris without losing a set. Djokovic, 38, has taken on longer matches, but still wins points in crunch time.

Sinner has won their last three matches, including a straight-sets victory in Melbourne this year. Djokovic brings far more experience, but he’s up against a 22-year-old player with more raw power.

If you’re betting on this one, here’s where the best value is:

• Match Winner: Sinner (-450)
• Total Games: Over (-115)
• Set Score: Sinner to win 3–1

Looking for a new sportsbook or want to compare prices? Check out our list of recs for the best betting apps!

UFC 316 Predictions: Best Bets & Fight Card Preview

*ding ding ding* It’s Round 2 for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley! This is a rematch made for hardcore UFC fans. There’s beef, a title at stake, and these two want to beat the ever-loving you-know-what out of each other.

Dvalishvili barreled through O’Malley the first time. Six takedowns. Three rounds of insane pressure. O’Malley couldn’t get going and looked out of his league when the fight became a grind. And now? It’s personal. He’s been rebuilding from the ground up with new training partners and drilling nonstop so that he doesn’t get stuck on his back like a turtle again.

Merab’s camp hasn’t been clean. He fractured his pinky toe in mid-May but kept sparring, barely missed any time, and told his team he’d fight anyway because he still has nine other toes. That’s where his mind is coming into Jersey.

As for the co-main event, we’ve got two totally different styles of fighters. Peña’s banking on her experience, and Kayla Harrison’s been ragdolling everyone who’s put in front of her. That includes her last UFC bout, where she tossed Chelsea Chandler across the Octagon and finished it in less than six minutes. Peña’s tough, but toughness doesn’t help when someone’s pinning your wrists and dropping elbows.

Top to bottom, this card is built on violence. Big names, aggressive styles, and a few matchups that feel like they were designed to end inside the first two rounds.

Below, we are gonna do a full breakdown of the card, our expert predictions, and what we think are the best bets if you’re putting some money on UFC 316!

Event Details

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Location: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
• Early Prelims: 6:00 pm ET (ESPN+/Disney+)
• Prelims: 8:00 pm ET (ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+)
• Main Card: 10:00 pm ET (ESPN+ PPV)
• See the full UFC 316 card

Main Event Breakdown: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

This fight is about two things: endurance and punishment.

• Champion: Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)
• Challenger: Sean O’Malley (18-2)
• Odds: Dvalishvili -280 | O’Malley +240 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Main Storylines

Dvalishvili broke him with pace and pressure in their first fight. He racked up six takedowns—three of them in the opening four minutes—and kept O’Malley on his back foot from the opening exchange. By the middle of round two, O’Malley had landed only one clean strike. The rest of the fight? He was just trying to peel Merab off him.

O’Malley has been overhauling everything. He spent two weeks at Mighty Mouse’s gym drilling scramble chains, brought in Ryan Hall for defensive jiu-jitsu, and logged over 100 rounds of live wrestling with bigger training partners during his Arizona camp. He also got leaner in the hopes of having quicker lateral movement.

On May 13, during Merab’s training, he broke his pinky toe in a sparring round in Tbilisi. He skipped roadwork for six days but never stopped drilling or grappling. Since then, he’s added two pounds of muscle and claims his VO2 max is the best it’s ever been. His coaches say his mat returns have gotten faster and that he’s been overpowering bigger wrestlers in training.

If O’Malley gets walked down again and ends up with his back to the cage by the end of round one, he’s going to get mauled. But if he can stay upright and land something heavy before the midway point of round two, it’ll be a real fight.

Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison

Peña may have the belt, but Harrison’s the heavy favorite for a reason.

• Champion: Julianna Peña (13-5)
• Challenger: Kayla Harrison (18-1)
• Odds: Harrison -590 | Peña +370 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Main Storylines

Harrison’s last fight lasted 5:47. She dragged Chandler to the mat twice, moved to mount, and finished with strikes. Her top game is built around pressure, balance, and control, and she gives no openings once she’s in position.

Peña’s been out for over a year. She cracked two ribs last July in a scramble with Raquel Pennington and tweaked her wrist during recovery. She’s tough, throws volume, and can scrap in the pocket, but she’s been overwhelmed by stronger grapplers before.

If Harrison gets inside early? Peña’s getting planted. Staying upright through the first five minutes is her best shot.

Main Card Matchups

All of the fights on the main card could end in the first 10 minutes. These fighters have zero interest in dragging it out any longer than that!

Best Bets & Predictions

Where do we see the best betting value on UFC 316? Based on style matchups, recent form, and how each fighter usually wins or loses, here are the four we think have the most value!

Closing Thoughts & Main Event Prediction

Let’s run it back with the numbers that make the most sense based on matchup dynamics, fight history, and what each fighter usually does under pressure:

• Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (-110)
• Kayla Harrison Inside the Distance (-200)
• Patchy Mix by Submission (+150)
• Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)

The Fight We’re Most Excited to Watch

Bautista vs. Mix is the one to watch. Both open fast, and once one of them takes control, it won’t take long. If Mix gets position early, it turns into a grappling clinic. If Bautista keeps it upright, it’ll be an absolute banger.

X-Factors to Watch

A few wild cards could change how all of these fights play out:

• Merab’s broken toe kept him out of conditioning for close to a week. He trained through it, but cardio pacing might be different.
• O’Malley overhauled his training environment mid-camp. That can work, or it can backfire.
• Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and goes into the octagon after fractured ribs and a wrist strain; those aren’t small potatoes.
• Mix is fighting under UFC lights for the first time. Some fighters adapt, but some don’t.

Final Prediction: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

If it stays upright for a decent amount of time, O’Malley has a chance. But it probably won’t. Merab closes space way too well and stays super glued to his opponents.

• Pick: Merab Dvalishvili
• Method: Unanimous Decision
• Why: The blueprint hasn’t changed. Merab keeps the pace high, chains takedowns, and wears his opponents out. Unless O’Malley clips him clean inside the first seven minutes, this will be one-sided again.
  

FYI: Odds can change closer to fight time, so check the latest on your sportsbook! You can check out our recs for the best ufc betting apps, and always gamble responsibly.

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction (June 5, 2025)

Welp, the Yankees went down 4-0 in the Bronx—their home turf. Oof. The Guardians scored 3 runs in the first inning, so their rotation was working tonight as opposed to the previous games against NY. As for the Yankees? They got their first extra-base hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. What a difference a night makes!

It’s tied up 3-3, and we all want to see what happens next at Yankee Stadium in the next matchup. The Yanks want to stop at the top of the AL East, and Cleveland wants to get a better footing in the league.

Will pitchers Max Fried vs. Slade Cecconi make a difference in the next game? Keep reading to find out what the odds and trends are and for our picks for the best bets!

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Cleveland Guardians (33–27) vs. New York Yankees (37–23)
• Date & Time: Thursday, June 5, at 7:05 pm ET
• Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Broadcast: YES Network
• Weather: Clear skies with a temperature around 73°F

Pitching Matchup

The Yankees and Guardians will close out their three-game set Thursday night in the Bronx. New York is sending Max Fried to the mound—they don’t want a repeat of the last game. Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi, who’s trying to find his place in the rotation. Here’s how these two throwers compare!

Team Form & Trends

The Yankees have been solid at home. The Guardians have been anything but while on the road.

Key Player Spotlight

Below are the hitters that will most likely impact Thursday’s game.

Yankees: Aaron Judge

• Slashed .364/.453/.798 with 11 home runs in May
• Tough matchup for any right-hander, including Cecconi
• Leads the team in hitting and extra-base hits

Guardians: José Ramírez

• Team leader in RBIs and total bases
• Brings power from both sides of the plate
• Needs to produce if Cleveland’s going to break through against Fried

Latest Betting Odds

Below are the latest odds from DraftKings and we think there is some value to be found.

Best Bets

Here’s where we think the smart money is if you’re betting on this one!

Closing Pitch: Yankees Look to Dominate

Max Fried gives the Yankees an advantage in the series finale. He’s been hard to hit at home, and Slade Cecconi has had some issues keeping the ball in the park. The Yankees have hit well in the Bronx, and the Guardians haven’t done much of anything on the road.

Top Betting Picks

• Yankees -1.5 (+105)
• Under 8.5 (-110)
• Yankees First 5 Innings -0.5 (-110)
  

Fried’s form, paired with home-field advantage and a stronger top-to-bottom batting order, makes the Yankees the safer side to back in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 2

New York has the better starter, has a more reliable offense at home, and a bullpen that handles late-game spots really well. Fried should keep Cleveland in check while the Yankees do enough to pull away.

Be cautious with over bets! Both teams have shown they can limit scoring, so if you’re targeting any of these lines, it’s always wise to act early before the odds move closer to the first pitch!

Check the latest odds at your preferred sportsbook before betting. And as always—wager responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction (June 5, 2025) – Roland Garros Semifinal Showdown

Roland Garros isn’t waiting for the final for one of its biggest tennis matches. The top two women players in the world are playing in the tournament, and it’ll be hardcore tennis.

Aryna Sabalenka has bulldozed her way through everyone this year; she’s won titles in Brisbane and Madrid and solidified her place as World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is just behind her in the rankings, but she’s held her ground in Paris—she hasn’t lost a match there since 2020.

Swiatek is after a French Open four in a row, a feat that would put her in rare company in the Open Era. Sabalenka hasn’t won this tournament…yet. She seems to have figured out playing on the slower clay, worked on her second serve, and has more control of her power-heavy baseline game.

These two have previously met twelve times. Swiatek is ahead 8–4 overall and 5–1 on clay. Sabalenka did win their most recent match, beating her in straight sets in Cincinnati last summer. But Roland Garros is different. The clay is much slower than hard court, the rallies are longer, and Swiatek has dominated here.

Can Sabalenka finally break through, or will Swiatek add another win to her run as Queen of the Red Clay? Let’s find out!

Match Details

• Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
• Time: 9:00 am ET
• Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
• Surface: Clay
• Broadcast: TNT / HBO Max

Head-to-Head Overview

Swiatek leads the series 8–4 and has won five of their six meetings on clay. In those matches, she controlled the rallies by hitting heavier topspin, targeting Sabalenka’s forehand on the run, and extending points past the four-shot mark.

Sabalenka’s one clay win was in Madrid last year, where the altitude helped her flatten the ball and shorten exchanges. In their most recent match, on hard court in Cincinnati in 2024, she took Swiatek out in straight sets by serving above 70% on first serve and finishing quickly off her insane forehand. She’ll need to do the same in Paris.

Player Profiles & Recent Form

Swiatek and Sabalenka have gotten to the semifinal without dropping a set, but their play is different. Sabalenka has shortened points with aggressive serving and first-strike play. Swiatek has controlled the points with court coverage and precision from the baseline.

Tactical Matchup Analysis

How do Sabalenka and Swiatek’s technical games look when we compare them? Look below!

Sabalenka’s Strengths

• Flat, early ball-striking allows her to take over from the baseline
• First serve regularly clears 115 mph and sets up shorter points
• Has added more spin and margin on clay, which cuts down on unforced errors
• Looks more balanced when recovering after wide balls, especially on her backhand side

Swiatek’s Strengths

• Forehand spin forces opponents back, giving her time to reposition and step in
• Backhand down the line has opened up the court consistently this tournament
• Anticipates early in rallies and uses positioning to break up aggressive patterns
• Rarely gives away short balls; her depth neutralizes first-strike players like Sabalenka

If Sabalenka is winning points within the first three shots, she has the advantage. If Swiatek gets into her baseline rhythm and pushes rallies past five shots, Sabalenka’s control starts to go, so it’s about who will dictate the court position.

Betting Insights & Lates Odds

If you’re betting on this semifinal matchup, here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:

Best Bets

The odds are really close, but the betting angles are predicting a long and really competitive match. Here’s what we think are the three best bets!

Expert Predictions

The tennis experts are divided, but the reasoning they all have makes sense

Those who are leaning toward Swiatek point to her shot selection and stability on clay. She’s won 26 consecutive matches at Roland Garros and holds a 5–1 edge over Sabalenka on this surface. Her topspin forehand, early backhand changes, and ability to reset baseline exchanges have consistently disrupted Sabalenka’s game.

Others are backing Sabalenka based on her current form. She hasn’t dropped a set in Paris, has kept unforced errors down, and is hitting her spots on serve. Her footwork has held up well even when drawn wide, and she’s finishing points earlier in the rally than in her past matches on clay.

The general expectation? A three-set match where service holds are common, but the pressure builds as return depth increases and the margins close in. It very likely will come down to whether Sabalenka can stay controlled late in sets, or if Swiatek can extend baseline patterns long enough to wear her down.

Swiatek or Sabalenka: Our Pick for the Roland Garros Final Spot

Sabalenka has held court all tournament; she’s winning short points, limiting unforced errors, and nailing her serve and forehand. She’s handled every match without needing to make many adjustments and hasn’t shown signs of fatigue.

Swiatek is more experienced on this surface, understands how to disrupt the tempo, and doesn’t give opponents an inch. Her advantage on clay comes from how well she resets points and builds patterns without overhitting. That’s been the difference in five of their six clay court meetings.

The head-to-head leans toward Swiatek, especially on slower courts. Sabalenka has made this matchup closer in the last year, but she still has a hard time when she’s forced into fourth- and fifth-ball decisions outside of her strike zone. If it goes past the opening 45 minutes, Swiatek’s ability to absorb pressure and counterpunch is much harder to crack.

Crowd energy will likely favor Swiatek, as she’s won here three straight years and has earned that respect. But Sabalenka plays well even if the crowd is cheering for her opponent and likes the tension, not to mention that this is the best we’ve seen her play on clay.

Final Prediction

• Iga Swiatek def. Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets (4–6, 6–3, 7–5)
• Our Best Bet: Over 22.5 total games (-110)

Swiatek’s combo of precision and patience gives her the advantage in a long match, but Sabalenka will make her work for every single point. There’ll be lots of extended baseline exchanges, close service games, and one or two turning points if it goes to a third set.

Note: Always gamble responsibly. For the latest odds and best bonuses, check out our picks for the best betting sites!

Are Sportsbooks Targeting Addicts? A Look at Marketing Tactics

Sportsbooks are having a field day. Betting is booming, and it’s everywhere you look—even if you aren’t looking for it.

Turn on the TV? Commercials from BetMGM. Watch TikTok? Promoted ads from DraftKings. Instagram and Facebook? FanDuel. You get the general idea. If you have zero interest in sports betting, you are still exposed to tons of marketing from these entities.

There are everyday ads, special game day ads, and targeted push alerts for users. The platforms are dueling it out in the media in a fierce competition for your attention and your money. And as the industry gets more sophisticated? The marketing tactics follow suit. Which poses a tough but legit question: Do some of these ads target the most vulnerable players? The ones who are having a hard time stopping?

That’s what we want to know! Keep reading to discover what we found out about how sportsbooks use data, design, and psychology to keep people betting, and if that the line between marketing and manipulation is bordering on nonexistent.

The Rise of Personalized Sports Betting Ads

The marketing machine has gone from mass promotion to one-on-one persuasion. Ads used to be limited to TV and stadium banners, but sportsbook ads got a digital glow-up, and they’re following users from social media platforms to inboxes. How do sportsbooks use our data, habits, and behavioral triggers to time their ads perfectly, and, in some cases, problematically? Let’s get into it!

From TV Spots to TikTok — How Sportsbooks Found You

Ten years ago, sportsbook marketing meant just TV ads and stadium sponsorships. Today? It’s hyper-personalized and follows you everywhere you go. In the early days of legal U.S. sports betting (post-2018), companies like DraftKings and FanDuel blanketed the airwaves and plastered their logos in sports arenas. Sports broadcasts began to feature odds updates, and podcasts got peppered with betting ads. But traditional ads were just the beginning.

Push notifications on your phone prod you with “special offers” at the right (or wrong) moments. A dormant customer could get a text for a “limited-time” free bet bundle, and that’s dangerous if you’ve been trying to cut down or stop. And if you do stop, you’re likely to get a “we miss you” reactivation bonus, as the companies openly talk about “win-back” campaigns to lure back lapsed users.

How Do They Know?

Behavioral tracking and AI have enabled platforms to analyze everything. Like your favorite teams, how much you wager, when you bet, and which bets you almost won. If you always bet on the Warriors, don’t be shocked when your app serves up a boosted odds promo on the next Warriors game. 

A betting tech CEO explained how their AI engine personalizes offers based on each user’s habits, suggesting “Because you bet on this, you might also like this” bets to keep users playing. 72% of sportsbook operators surveyed said a “personalized player experience” is the biggest factor in keeping customers betting.

The targeted tactics represent a huge evolution from the one-size billboard ad. Sportsbook marketing has become a 24/7, personalized dialogue, trailing you from TV to X to the phone you’re holding. The convenience is undeniable, but so is the concern that this kind of precision is being used to exploit our weaknesses.

Behavioral Psychology Behind the Promotions

You’ve no doubt seen a “risk-free bet” or a bonus pop up at just the right time, and it’s no coincidence. Read on to find out how sportsbooks use psychology, aka dopamine triggers, loss-chasing incentives, and near-miss rewards, to make betting addictive by design.

Free Bets Aren’t Really Free

Just like a physical casino, it’s not an accident that sportsbooks and gambling sites are addictive. The platforms are all engineered with the same psychology that casinos have used forever; only now it’s been supercharged for mobile. What are some of the powerful hooks that are built into betting promos and apps? The following:

Who’s Most at Risk?

Then there are the bettors who get the “VIP” treatment, but that’s not always a good thing. Customers are treated differently based on how much they spend, and sportsbooks use that to zero in on them with the most aggressive marketing tactics.

Data-Driven or Dangerously Predatory?

The biggest spenders (aka whales) and most frequent gamblers, who are those who are in the highest risk category, always get the most aggressive attention. The high-value customers are courted with VIP perks, personal managers, and constant offers.

A recent UK court case revealed just how predatory this can get. A recovering gambling addict testified that a betting company bombarded him with over 1,300 promotional emails in two years. He had never meaningfully consented to this kind of marketing and was spending all of his wages on bets, which is an obvious sign of problem gambling.

And it’s by no means an isolated incident. Watchdogs have long noted that VIP and loyalty programs ensnare problem gamblers. A leaked industry report in Britain found that a tiny fraction of customers (usually VIPs) generated a huge share of deposits—at one betting firm, only 2% of users accounted for 83% of all deposits. The VIPs were disproportionately likely to be addicts or on the verge. The companies lured them in with free bets, cashback on losses, and event tickets, which were basically rewards for being a big loser.

It’s not surprising that U.K. regulators cited VIP schemes as a factor in 7 out of 10 regulatory penalties for failing to protect problem gamblers. The UK Gambling Commission eventually stepped in with strict new rules to curb “irresponsible VIP practices,” warning that companies have to do thorough checks before showering perks on someone who might be gambling beyond their means.

In the U.S., regulation hasn’t yet caught up to such tactics, and some operators are really pushing the envelope. Internal job postings have hinted at priorities that put profit over player safety.

FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment, advertised VIP account manager roles that were expected to “increase player activity and drive revenue.” Their job description is to get the top customers to bet more, which is way different than Flutter’s practice in the U.K., where VIP managers aren’t incentivized by customer spending, specifically to avoid problematic exploitation. FYI: FanDuel removed that specific phrasing after it drew scrutiny in 2024.

And although British online casinos have limits like a £10 cap per slot spin to slow down high rollers, the same company’s U.S. platforms allow far higher bets in the absence of such rules. All of this suggests that, in newer markets like the U.S., data-driven targeting of big spenders slides into dangerously predatory territory before regulators can pump the brakes.

Who else is at risk? Marketing algorithms also single out people who exhibit “chase” behavior or other red-flag patterns. Those who regularly deposit after losses or play at 3 am will get tagged for special offers, when in reality they’re showing signs of distress. Insiders and experts worry that with advanced AI, sportsbooks could identify and exploit susceptible gamblers with chilling precision.

Dr. Timothy Fong of UCLA’s Gambling Studies Program said, “AI can create predatory scenarios, where people who are already vulnerable because of mental health issues or a gambling addiction could be manipulated or targeted without their knowledge.” In other words, the same data tools that could be used to intervene and help are being used to maximize revenue from those who are least able to resist.

Ultimately, problem gamblers and those who are teetering on the edge are at the highest risk of being targeted by intense marketing. They bet more, so they’re valued more, which is a bleak reality. 

An addiction advocate asked, “What percentage of gambling profits come from those with a disorder?” The answer? Several analyses suggest that it’s alarmingly high, anywhere from 15% on the low end to possibly one-third or more of revenues coming from people with gambling problems. This creates a perverse incentive: the house needs its most addicted players to keep playing. And that makes the line between “VIP treatment” and predation very, very thin.

Loopholes in Self-Exclusion and Compliance

If you’re trying to slow down or quit? Welp, the ads might not let you. Self-exclusion is supposed to give gamblers a way out, but there are big holes in the system that allow marketing messages to get through. Sportsbooks (and affiliates) still reach self-banned users, and the fragmented oversight just isn’t cutting it.

When Self-Bans Fail and Ads Keep Coming

There are people who know that they have a gambling problem, and self-exclusion programs are supposed to be a lifeline, and in theory, they are! . You can ban yourself from betting sites and casinos, and the companies have to stop taking your bets and stop marketing to you. 

Unfortunately, this is full of loopholes, and addicted gamblers are pushed by the marketing that they tried to escape.

A glaring example happened in the UK during what was ironically the “Safer Gambling Week.” Flutter’s Sky Bet brand mistakenly sent out a blast email with a bonus offer (“Take a peek at what your mystery bonus is… opt in, spend £5 and claim your 100 free spins”) to thousands of people, including recovering addicts who had self-excluded from all gambling. 

The people had taken the proactive step to ban themselves via the GamStop program, yet here they were, getting a tempting promo right in their inbox. The fallout was quick: regulators launched a probe, Sky Bet apologized, and campaigners were outraged.

A self-excluded man said, “They shouldn’t be targeting anyone, let alone people who’ve told them they have a problem… I tried to access my account [after that email].” And a former party leader in Parliament lambasted it as “Outrageous…self-regulation doesn’t work…People trying to stop are being targeted, like throwing a free shot of tequila at an alcoholic.”

That incident exposed a loophole: Human or system error can accidentally (or carelessly) keep problem gamblers on marketing lists. Regulators in jurisdictions explicitly ban contacting self-excluded patrons, as it’s a basic responsible gambling requirement, but we keep seeing failures. 

In the U.S., Caesars Entertainment was fined for sending promo emails to 231 people on the self-exclusion list, soliciting their business. PointsBet sportsbook was also fined after it sent over 500 marketing texts/emails to self-excluded individuals due to a “technical glitch.” Every single one of those contacts is a potential trigger for relapse. The people who are trying hardest to quit are being dangled bait, and even if it’s a mistake, it’s negligent.

Then there’s the fragmented nature of self-exclusion databases. Self-exclusion is done state-by-state or operator-by-operator. If you ban yourself from one app or in one state, another company might not know about it. A problem gambler could self-exclude from all the apps in New Jersey, but then get sign-up offers when they cross into Pennsylvania or when a new sportsbook launches that isn’t part of a unified program. 

Unlike the UK’s GamStop, which has one national database that operators have to check, the U.S. lacks a universal system, though the major firms have begun discussing sharing exclusion data. Until recently, major U.S. operators weren’t sharing lists of problem gamblers with each other at all, meaning that someone who is barred on FanDuel could just hop on DraftKings unnoticed.

Even within a single platform, slick marketing finds its way around self-exclusion. Affiliate marketing and third-party ads are a gray area. You can unsubscribe from Operator so-and-so’s emails, but if an affiliate website you gave your email to is promoting Operator so-and-so, you still get indirectly targeted. Worse, investigative reports found gambling sites covertly used tools like Meta’s tracking pixel to tag visitors and then bombard them with betting ads on Facebook, all without clear consent. 

So even if you don’t sign up or you actively opt out, just visiting a sportsbook site can cause your data to be shared with ad networks that will keep pitching you bets as you browse the web. U.K. lawmakers called out these secret data-sharing practices as “out of control,” noting how they undermine attempts by vulnerable individuals to disconnect.

Finally, accounts are really hard to truly “delete.” Users have complained that after self-excluding, they keep getting generic sports updates or game result notifications from apps. The content isn’t overtly a promo, but it could still pull them back in.

The Industry’s Defense

The sportsbooks all say that they’re doing their part, but are they really?

There are responsible gambling tools and public pledges, as the companies insist that they’re not preying on addicts. Here’s what they claim, what they offer, and where those efforts look and sound more like PR than protection for players.

What the Sportsbooks Have to Say in Response

Sportsbook operators insist that they are deeply committed to ethical marketing and player safety. If you listen to the companies themselves, you’ll hear a lot about “responsible gambling” tools and initiatives. So, what do they claim, and how does it measure up?

First of all, the major platforms all highlight the suite of safety features that are built into their apps: deposit limits, loss limits, wager caps, cool-off periods, self-exclusion options, etc.

Players are able to set up daily or monthly deposit maximums, or get a pop-up after a certain number of hours of play that tells them to take a break. Sportsbooks also run “reality check” features that remind you of the time or money spent. All this is usually accessible under account settings.

The caveat? Very few people actually use them. Research from New Jersey found that only about 1% to 5% of young bettors are using the voluntary limit-setting tools, and that’s a teeny fraction. Yes, the tools exist, but they usually serve as talking points rather than solid safeguards for the masses.

The industry also touts its responsible marketing codes. In the U.S., the American Gaming Association (AGA) has a marketing code of conduct that members say they follow, like no advertising to minors, clear “21+” and problem-gambling warnings on ads, etc.  

All sportsbook commercials or billboards now have the tagline: “Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.” And in fine print, they list eligibility and terms. The companies argue that the disclaimers and the promotion of helplines demonstrate their commitment to mitigating harm. 

The critics? They think that a tiny footer or a rushed voice-over in an ad is pretty much worthless for problem gamblers. How many addicted gamblers will call that number when an ad is hyping up a “free bet” offer?

In public statements, executives stress that they don’t want problem gamblers. They claim it’s bad for business in the long run if customers ruin their lives (and finances). In 2024, seven of the largest U.S. sportsbook companies formed a new trade group, the Responsible Online Gaming Association (ROGA), and pledged over $20 million for research, education, and a “best practices” charter for safer gambling.

The big firms said for the first time that they’ll collaborate to share data on self-excluded and at-risk players, which could help prevent a banned user from just migrating to another platform. It’s a promising step on paper; the group’s mission statement talks about “driving a race to the top” on safety standards and making responsible gambling tools more accessible.

Sportsbook operators also point to the resources they devote to compliance teams and AI monitoring. Most have algorithms that supposedly flag unusual betting patterns that might indicate a problem (like very rapid bets, drastic increases in deposits, etc.). Some have started using predictive models to reach out to players who show signs of trouble, which entails sending them responsible gambling messages or freezing accounts pending review. In regulated markets like the U.K., this is becoming a requirement (affordability checks once losses pass a certain threshold). In the U.S., it’s voluntary so far, but companies say, “We monitor and intervene if and when needed.”

Despite all of their defenses, the effectiveness and sincerity of industry efforts are debated. Critics argue that for all the talk, the proof is sorely lacking. The safety nets have big holes, as one problem gambler was allowed to blow through all his money without intervention until a court intervened. 

And while operators do encourage “responsible play,” they simultaneously inundate users with promos. Professor Heather Wardle, a gambling behavior researcher, said, “It’s convenient for the industry to frame it as ‘all about individual responsibility,’ as it shifts focus off the companies’ aggressive tactics.” Self-imposed limits don’t hurt profits, but stopping targeted ads to a high roller does.

Then there are some in the gambling industry who acknowledge the balance. An AGA spokesperson explained that legal sportsbooks feel pressure to make betting as engaging and frictionless as possible because they’re competing with rivals and black-market sites. The argument goes like this: if we don’t offer big bonuses and fun features, the customer will go somewhere else to get them. And the truth is that marketing is an arms race, particularly in the U.S., where companies spent over a billion dollars on advertising in 2024 to fight for market share. None of them wants to dial back personalized promos and lose ground unilaterally.

So the industry’s answer, broadly, is: “Yes, we market heavily, but we play within the rules and provide tools for anyone who wants to stay in control.” They highlight their responsible gaming messaging, partnerships with addiction research groups, and the fact that many people can and do gamble recreationally without any issues. It’s a balance of “promote the fun, but warn about the risks.”

Is it enough? Most experts and regulators are not anywhere near convinced. They see a huge disconnect between the glossy responsible gambling brochures and the reality of apps that are engineered to maximize play.

Expert Opinions and Red Flags

For years, experts and advocates have been sounding the alarm about gambling addiction and the harm it causes. Part of this is the marketing practices that look way more exploitative than ethical.

What the Researchers and Advocates Say

Addiction experts, consumer advocates, and lawmakers have been shouting from the rooftops about the danger of sports betting marketing. To them, a lot of the tactics are not harmless marketing; they’re manipulative and harmful practices. The following are some of the perspectives and concerns from those who are on the front lines of gambling addiction.

The expert consensus is that most sportsbook marketing tactics cross an ethical line, especially regarding vulnerable users. Marketing is expected in any business, but the combo of a highly addictive product, sophisticated targeting, and inadequate oversight makes it a perfect storm for exploitation. Researchers and advocates are urging that we treat gambling advertising with the same skepticism and scrutiny as tobacco advertising, because the cost of doing nothing is measured in ruined finances, fractured families, and lives that are being put at risk.

Conclusion: Good Marketing or Manipulation Tactics?

The surge in sports betting has come with an onslaught of innovative marketing, and with that, a conundrum on what is acceptable advertising and what could be considered dangerous manipulation. 

Look below for a quick recap on what we covered:

• The sportsbook marketing arms race is happening in front of our eyes; companies deploy every trick in the book to bring in new biz. But those same tactics venture into predatory behavior, especially when it’s aimed at susceptible players.
• Patterns suggest that problem gamblers are the ones being targeted, not protected. High-risk bettors, aka big losers, self-excluded people, and young, inexperienced men, all tend to get more promos, when ethically they should get fewer or none. The contradiction is at the center of the concern.
• Regulation hasn’t caught up: Fast-paced innovation in data-driven marketing has outstripped the slow march of regulations. Loopholes mean that harmful practices make it through, and enforcement only comes only after the damage is already done.
• Pressure is mounting for change: From class-action lawsuits to government inquiries, there’s a growing push for transparency, stronger consumer protections, and accountable marketing. Measures like mandatory data sharing on problem gamblers, limits on bonus offers, and clearer, non-misleading advertising are all being called for.

Is sportsbook marketing “good fun” or a form of exploitation? That depends on where we draw the line. Right now, the balance seems to lean in favor of aggressive growth over caution. As bettors and as a society, recognizing the tactics is a must. The hope is that with greater awareness, better regulation, and a demand for accountability, sports betting can be enjoyed as entertainment without preying on those who are struggling to stop.