Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Best Bets (August 4, 2025)

Another summer series kicks off between the Cincinnati and Chicago Cubs! The Reds head to the Windy City for a three-game series starting at 8:05 on August 4.

The NL Central rivals take the field, and although the Cubs are slightly favored (home field advantage), do not count out the road dog Reds.

The Cubs are after the division title, and the Reds are trying to hold onto their place in the Wild Card race.

• Chicago is giving the ball to Mike Soroka, and his biggest hurdle? What happens once hitters get on base. Lefties have tagged him early in counts, and he’s had a hard time limiting innings after that. He doesn’t always work ahead, and when he’s forced into the stretch, the extra pitches pile up.
• Nick Lodolo is starting for the Reds, and he’s been more reliable with traffic. He fills the zone, changes eye levels, doesn’t let innings get out of hand, and he’s given the Reds 5–6 solid frames without needing early relief.

In this area? Lodolo gives the Reds a steadier hand, and the number on Cincinnati feels like it underrates that.

But we aren’t selling that short, so keep reading for our preview! We’ve got detailed pitcher stats, the latest betting odds and trends, main player/matchups to watch, and our picks for the three best bets!

Game Details

• Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (58-54) vs. Chicago Cubs (65-46)
• Date & Time: Monday, August 4, First pitch at 8:05 pm ET
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Venue Factor: Wrigley usually suppresses scoring when the wind isn’t blowing out, so check the weather before first pitch!
• How to Watch: Watch on MARQ, FDSOH
• Weather Forecast: Expect temperatures in the mid-70s °F, with light clouds or haze, and a low chance of precipitation.
• Season Context: The Cubs are 65–46 overall and have been strong at Wrigley (35–20), still pushing Milwaukee in the NL Central. The Reds are at 58–54 and under .500 on the road (25–28), and are after a spot in the Wild Card race.
• Head-to-Head This Season: Cubs are ahead 2–1; Chicago won the last game.

Starting Pitcher Stats

Who’s heading out to the hill for the Reds and the Cubs? Below is the starting pitcher for each club and a breakdown of their skills!

Current Betting Odds

If you’re betting on this game, you need to know the odds and lines! Here they are, courtesy of ESPN BET:

Markets Overview

Moneyline

• The Cubs are at –125 at most sportsbooks.
• The Reds range from +110 to +125.
• The implied win rate on Cincinnati hovers around 46%, but model projections have them closer to 51%.

Run Line

• The Reds +1.5 (–182) gives you a little bit of a cushion, but the return isn’t great.
• Cubs –1.5 (+155) pays out better if they pull away, but that all hinges on Soroka holding up and the offense showing up.

Total Runs (O/U 7.5)

• The Under has been a decent angle when Lodolo starts.
• The Cubs remain below average against lefties; they’re in the bottom 10 in OPS vs LHP.
• The weather doesn’t look like it’ll play into scoring; moderate temps and low wind are expected.

Main Players & Matchup Trends

• Elly De La Cruz (Reds): Leads team in steals and triples; hit .312 in July.
• Spencer Steer (Reds): 17 home runs, 70+ RBI.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs): 25 HR, 27 SB; hits against lefties well.
• Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Batting .211 since July 15.

Team Betting Trends

• Reds: 4–1 ATS in last 5 road games; 6 of last 8 have gone under.
• Cubs: 3–6 ATS in last 9 home games; bullpen gave up 3+ ER in 4 of last 7.

Our Best Bets

What do we think looks good for this game? We’ve got our sights set on three best bets!

Want a bonus angle? You got it! 

• Same-game parlay: Reds ML + Under 8.5 → Pays around +290 depending on the sportsbook.

Lines can move fast before the first pitch, so staying updated is key. To make the most of your bets, check out our top-rated sports betting sites for the best odds and value.

Why We’re Taking the Reds as Road Dogs 

Cincinnati has some real value in the series opener as the road underdog. Why? Because Lodolo’s been really reliable in the last month. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and limiting mistakes. And at Wrigley Field, that plays. Soroka hasn’t made it through six innings in weeks and has gotten into trouble once runners get on base.

The total looks playable, too! The Reds skew under with Lodolo on the hill, and Chicago hasn’t done very much hitting against lefties this season. Add in calmer weather and two lineups that don’t usually walk, and you’ve got a setup where one or two early hits could very well decide the game.

As for props, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s splits against left-handers are strong enough to believe in. Even if Lodolo keeps the ball down, Crow-Armstrong hits lefties well enough to get one through or beat out an infield single.

Best Bets Recap

• Reds ML (+120): Medium
• Under 7.5 (+105):  Medium
• Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (–190): High

Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 4, Chicago Cubs 2

We feel like Lodolo will keep the ball out of the air, Soroka will fade after the third inning, and the Reds will grab the opener!

NFL Overseas Expansion: How International Games Could Change Betting Strategies

The NFL isn’t content with taking over every Sunday, Monday, and Thursday night, nooooo. It already rules the roost in the U.S., but that’s not good enough! It wants to go global. That’s right, y’all; America’s favorite game (that would be football) is expanding overseas.

Now Europe will have two versions of football, but they call soccer football, so it could get confusing.

Back to the point! What began as a one-time, then once-a-year novelty game in London is taking place all over Europe. Joining the rotation? That would be Germany, Ireland, and Spain are on deck. Brazil wants in as well! And that’s amazing for global fans of the game.

But for bettors in the U.S.? It means recalculating everything about your strategy.

International games won’t be the same. Why? A little thing called time zones. Ever had jet lag? Ever had jet lag and tried to play a whole football game? See what we mean?

Practice routines will be interrupted, stadiums will be strange and unknown territories with no home team fans, and the weather is also a factor. What was once a neutral curiosity on the calendar will become something that can change spreads, derail props, and throw totals right out the window!

If you are a football fan and want to stay ahead of the curve? This is for you! We are going to explain every detail about how NFL overseas games will screw up players’ performance, change the odds and lines, and how bettors can adjust before the markets do!

NFL’s Overseas Expansion: Where We Stand

The NFL’s push to grow internationally began in 2007, when the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants faced off at Wembley Stadium in the league’s first-ever regular-season game played outside the U.S.

At the time, it felt like a one-off game that was built for marketing and optics. But that matchup brought in over 80,000 fans, despite the heavy rain and a mud-soaked pitch, and it proved that there was a real appetite for American football abroad.

That game laid the groundwork for what would become the NFL International Series, which has only grown steadily over almost 20 years. Since then? The league has held more than 40 regular-season games across London, Mexico City, and, most recently, Germany!

Where It’s Going in 2025 

The 2025 NFL season will feature seven international games, and that’s the most in league history! The locations span the following five countries:

• United Kingdom: Three games (two at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, one at Wembley)
• Germany: Two games (one in Munich, one in Frankfurt)
• Brazil: One game at Neo Química Arena in São Paulo
• Spain: First-ever NFL game in Madrid, at the Santiago Bernabéu
• Ireland: One game in Dublin, likely at Croke Park or Aviva Stadium

The above additions mark the NFL’s clearest signal yet that global expansion is part of the league’s long-term plan. The days of one or two games tucked into the October schedule are over, and they’re now strategic, branded events with marketing reach, international partners, and growing local fan bases.

A Long-Term Plan for Europe (and Beyond)

Commissioner Roger Goodell has made the league’s ambitions known. He’s publicly floated the idea of a four-team European division, and in the past has suggested that London alone could support two full-time franchises. While the logistics are still really complicated, travel, player contracts, time zones, and visa rules among them, the NFL is moving closer to some kind of permanent international footprint.

That future could involve new expansion teams or a relocation from a current U.S. franchise. Either way, bettors should be getting ready for a landscape where NFL overseas games aren’t the exception; they’re going to be part of the standings and the futures markets.

Global Marketing Rights: A Key Piece

Supporting this push is the NFL Global Markets Program, which was launched in 2021. It allows teams to establish marketing partnerships and fan engagement campaigns in certain countries. As of now, 29 of the 32 NFL teams have international marketing rights.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars have long been tied to London, and they’ve officially secured UK rights through this program.
• The New England Patriots hold exclusive rights in Germany, where they’ve already hosted fan festivals and built a sizable local following.
• Other teams have targeted Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and South Korea, planting the seeds for long-term fan growth.

Travel Fatigue & Time Zone Impact on Performance

Jet lag and hectic travel itineraries can be brutal, and they have real effects on NFL teams. Crossing multiple time zones disrupts players’ body clocks and can sap performance.

Sports science shows that when athletes compete outside their normal circadian rhythm, they suffer more than just mental lapses; their physical strength and reaction time decline when they’re off schedule.

We’ve seen this in practice: for years, West Coast teams were notorious for struggling in early 1:00 pm ET kickoffs in the East, and East Coast teams usually aren’t at full form when they play in late-night games out West. 

Now amplify that effect for overseas trips, where teams might be 5–8 hours off their usual time. The result? Sluggish starts and underprepared play. Teams coming back from London without a bye week have usually underperformed: in a small sample, those post-London teams scored fewer points than expected and allowed more points than expected, a pattern that’s consistent with a tired, jet-lagged squad.

In 2023, when the Bills played the Jaguars in London, Jacksonville stayed in the UK for two weeks (having played the week prior), and Buffalo didn’t arrive until Friday morning, which was barely 48 hours before kickoff.

The Bills came out flat, and coach Sean McDermott admitted their energy “was not good enough early in the game,” vowing to re-evaluate travel plans the next time.

Stadium Atmosphere & Crowd Dynamics

One of the most striking things about NFL games abroad is the truly unique crowd atmosphere. These are neutral-site games in every sense of the word: the usual home-field advantage is absent.

The stands are filled with a mix of fans wearing all sorts of NFL jerseys (not just those of the teams playing), and that’s a vibe that’s closer to a Pro Bowl crowd than a rowdy partisan NFL stadium.

European fans also tend to cheer both teams’ big plays and don’t necessarily observe the same etiquette (like remaining quiet when the offense is at work). This can cause some unusual moments, like a “home” team in London could still need a silent snap count because the crowd noise isn’t strictly in their favor.

What has been really notable is that most London games feel flat, as they lack that usual home energy or urgency, and that works in favor of the underdogs.

And European crowds all have their own style. They’ll do the wave, cheer at strange times, and create a spectacle, which can only help underdogs who don’t have to deal with a hostile road environment. Momentum can change without a true home crowd to quell it, so live bettors can find value in spotting an underdog gaining confidence in a neutral atmosphere. If you’re handicapping these games? Take away the typical 2-3 point home-field advantage. Treat it as a bowl game at a neutral site, where raw team quality (and travel adaptation) matters way more than crowd support does.

Weather, Turf, and Stadium Conditions

Overseas venues also introduce unfamiliar field conditions and weather factors that bettors need to be aware of! London games have been played at both Wembley Stadium and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and there’s a huge difference: Wembley has a natural grass pitch, and Tottenham uses a replacement artificial turf surface for NFL games.

That turf at Tottenham? It drew loud complaints; after a 2023 game there, Buffalo Bills players called it “f–king cement,” as the normal grass was swapped out for a harder artificial field to protect the soccer pitch. Hard or slick turf can impact play with slower cutbacks, different cleat choices, and potentially higher injury risk (which could affect in-game betting if players go down).

The German venues used in Munich and Frankfurt have been grass, but those weren’t great either. In the NFL’s first Munich game (2022), players and coaches griped about the slippery grass at Allianz Arena; it was so bad that the field had to be replaced afterward. By 2023, in Frankfurt, the NFL installed a hybrid grass system to prevent similar slipping issues after learning from Munich.

The turf issues can influence totals and props: a slick field could lead to more conservative play-calling (fewer deep cuts on routes) and lower scoring, whereas a rock-hard, fast surface could favor offenses (but also possibly cause more field-goal attempts if drives stall on unfamiliar footing).

The weather is another factor. London is known for rain and damp conditions in autumn, and the very first London game in 2007 turned into a muddy slog, a 13-10 game played on a soaked field at Wembley. Although the field quality has improved since that “mudfest,” you still see rain impact some UK games (wet footballs causing fumbles or drops).

Bettors should treat the weather forecast in London or Germany just as seriously as they would for, say, Chicago or Green Bay. Totals for international games have usually skewed lower, and it’s partly due to weather and partly travel fatigue. The under has hit in 17 of 33 London games through 2023, and the last four London games (through 2023) all went under, averaging just 43.5 total points. 

Some of it is timing (early kickoffs) and jet lag, but soggy European fall weather and unfamiliar wind patterns in open soccer stadiums do play a part. And consider altitude if the NFL returns to Mexico City (Estadio Azteca’s thin air has its own effects), though Mexico games are on pause until the stadium is renovated. Do your homework on the venue: grass vs. turf, recent field conditions, and forecasted weather. The factors could tilt a prop (e.g., favor a running back’s yards if receivers will be slipping in routes, or vice versa) or make a difference on the over/under. And if you hear players openly complaining about a field pre-game, don’t ignore it; it could be an omen of a sloppy, lower-scoring affair.

Bookmaker Adjustments & Market Inefficiencies

Whenever the NFL ventures into new territory (literally), bookmakers have to adjust their lines, and that means opportunities for sharp bettors. By now, oddsmakers are aware of the basic trends in international games, but that doesn’t mean they always get it right. One notable trend has been on totals: as mentioned, a slight lean toward unders in London historically (about 52% unders) and several low-scoring games in recent years . Books will adjust totals down a bit for jet lag and unfamiliar settings, but there may still be value if you anticipate extreme scenarios (such as especially bad weather or two tired offenses). Watch the odds movement in the week leading up to an NFL overseas game.

Another potential inefficiency is public perception. Casual bettors sometimes overrate teams with international experience (“Oh, Team X has played in London three times, they’ll be fine”) or, conversely, panic about travel for teams that end up handling it well. Don’t blindly follow these narratives. A team like Jacksonville does have a routine for London, but it doesn’t guarantee a cover;  the Jags have had mixed results despite basically being London’s home team (they’ve played a league-high 13 games in the UK). If the public inflates the Jaguars’ odds due to their London familiarity, you might actually get line value on the opponent. Always ground your bets in the fundamentals of the matchup plus the travel/rest info, rather than a simplistic “Team X is used to London” take.

Keep an eye on player prop markets as well, as these can be slow to adjust to overseas nuances. Sportsbooks will often set player props based on season averages, but we’ve seen top players underperform statistically in London games – for instance, in 2023, both Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill had lower-than-usual passing yards in a London matchup, and Trevor Lawrence threw well below his average in one of his London games. Travel can disrupt timing and practice, which might mean fewer explosive plays (hurting overs on yardage props). Or a coach might rotate backups in more liberally if he senses players getting gassed by travel, which could affect snap counts for fantasy/DFS purposes. These are the kind of subtle edges where a bettor paying attention can profit. If you know a star player struggled with the long flight (watch mid-week practice reports or local press), maybe fade his props or DFS usage. Meanwhile, books sometimes over-adjust in other areas, like assuming there will be a huge drop-off in offense and setting the total ultra-low, even when two high-powered teams might still find ways to score. If you see an over/under that’s been hammered down due to narrative, and you have reason to think it’s overblown, don’t be afraid to go contrarian.

Lastly, line timing is super important. International games often kick off at unusual times (like 9:30 am Eastern on Sunday), which means line movement can happen late Saturday or very early Sunday when casual bettors finally notice the game. Sharp bettors who act before the crowd can catch lines before they move. The overseas effect is still somewhat new, so occasionally sportsbooks misprice the situation. For instance, historically, bettors didn’t account enough for jet lag on teams the week after London, but analysis showed those teams often underperform the next game, a nugget you could exploit in advance. Stay informed on travel schedules, read quotes from coaches/players about the trip, and look for any market overreaction or underreaction. International games add volatility, and with volatility comes opportunity for those who are prepared to seize it.

DFS & Prop Betting Nuances

NFL overseas games don’t just challenge bettors on spreads and totals – they also introduce wrinkles for daily fantasy sports (DFS) players and prop bettors. One big factor is how coaching strategies might shift due to the unusual circumstances. Some coaches take a simpler, more conservative approach in an international game, especially if practice time was cut short by travel. This could mean a run-heavy script or fewer elaborate trick plays, which in turn affects DFS output (e.g., fewer shootouts, more field goal drives). We’ve seen a tendency for London games to start slowly, as teams feel each other out (and shake off jet lag).

If you’re playing DFS showdown contests for a morning London game, consider that the first half might be low scoring. That could elevate the value of kickers and defenses in DFS lineups, relative to a typical game, and downgrade fringe big-play receivers who might normally rely on a high-flying game script. Conversely, some coaches might try to “make a splash” for the international crowd (there’s a theory that teams want to be ambassadors for the sport, possibly leading to a surprise onside kick or a 4th-down attempt to excite fans). But more often than not, they stick to what’s comfortable – no coach wants a long flight home after a failed trick play costs them a win.

Prop bettors should also monitor player usage closely. Travel-related factors can lead to limited usage of certain players.

For example, if a player is dealing with a minor injury, teams sometimes err on the side of caution and either leave them home or put them on a pitch count abroad. (It’s not uncommon to see a late-week injury update that a player “did not travel with the team,” which obviously means you should hit the under on any of his props.)

In 2024, the Chicago Bears ruled out safety Jaquan Brisker with a concussion, specifically noting he did not travel to London – an indication you wouldn’t see with a normal game. Keep an eye on those Saturday injury reports before an international Sunday; a surprise absence could open up value on overs for a backup’s props or unders for a player who might be less than 100%. Also consider fatigue in play-calling: a team that normally pushes tempo might slow it down if players are huffing and puffing. That could impact overs/unders on things like the number of plays, QB pass attempts, or receiver receptions (fewer no-huddle situations, more clock running).

DFS angles abound in these games. If you believe a team will come out sluggish, you might focus on a workhorse running back (assuming the team leans on the run in a simpler game plan) or even the opposing defense (a jet-lagged offense is prone to turnovers and sacks). If weather or turf is an issue, downgrade kickers on bad turf (we’ve seen missed kicks on unfamiliar fields) or upgrade possession receivers if deep passing is less effective. And remember, the game flow could be weird – some international games see low scoring early and then a flurry of points late once teams adjust. This opens opportunities for savvy live bettors or second-half DFS lineup pivots. Same-game parlays should be built with an understanding that correlations might differ from a standard game: for instance, you might parlay an under on a QB’s yards with an under on the game total and an over on the opposing RB’s carries, telling a story that the QB’s team is jet-lagged and falls behind, leading to a grind-out game by the opponent. These nuanced approaches can pay off if you read the tea leaves (or in this case, the travel itineraries and practice reports) correctly.

Betting Strategies for International Games

What are some concrete adjustments that you can make when you bet on international NFL games? We’ve got five of them for you!

1. Monitor Travel & Rest Days

Always factor in how and when each team traveled. Did one team fly out early in the week while the other left Thursday or later? Is one coming off a bye or long rest? These details matter. Give a boost to the team with more recovery and prep time, and be cautious with teams on short rest or extensive travel (especially west-to-east travel, which is harder on body clocks). If a team has to play the very next week after an NFL overseas game, consider fading them or adjusting the spread; the fatigue factor is real, as history shows in their ATS performance.

2. Fade Public Perception

The betting public often latches onto simplistic narratives in these games. For example, “Team X always wins in London” or “Jet lag will destroy Team Y.” Use these to your advantage. If the public overrates a team’s overseas experience (like blindly backing Jacksonville just because of their UK familiarity), you might find line value on the other side. Conversely, if a team is getting no love because “they had a long flight,” but you have intel that they handled it well, you could snag a favorable number. In short, be contrarian when the public overcorrects for the travel storyline.

3. Watch Line Movement Early

Keep a close eye on line moves as soon as the matchup is set. Oddsmakers will post an opening line often not fully incorporating the travel nuances; those moves will happen when sharp bettors weigh in or news comes out. If you have a strong angle (like you know one team historically struggles with long trips or a coach openly hates the disruption), bet early before the books adjust. By Sunday morning of a London game, the line may have shifted several points if significant money or news (like a player not traveling) hits the wires. Be ahead of that curve.

4. Limit Unit Size on Unknowns

With less predictability comes more variance. These games can be volatile – weird things happen overseas (strange bounces on unfamiliar fields, players cramping from travel, etc.). If you’re unsure how a team will handle the trip or the conditions, consider scaling down your bet size compared to a normal game. It’s okay to have a lean, but acknowledge the higher uncertainty. Think of it like betting on a bowl game in college. You do your research, but you accept that there are extra variables. Preserve your bankroll by not overextending on a game that carries more unknowns than a regular NFL game.

5. Focus on Totals & Second-Half Bets

One of the clearest patterns in international games has been sluggish starts followed by chaotic finishes as fatigue sets in. This opens two avenues: Totals and 2nd half wagers. If you anticipate a low-scoring start, you might bet the first-half under or wait to live-bet an adjusted total. Some bettors also have found success playing second-half overs, figuring that defenses wear down more than offenses late (jet lag can kill your concentration on tackling). Additionally, if one team was jet-lagged and fell behind early, the second half might see them in catch-up mode, and that’s good for a live bet on them to cover a bigger spread or to push the game over the total. Use what you observe in the first half: is one team clearly tired and slow? Did the commentators mention players looking gassed? Adjust at halftime, as there can be value in 2H lines before the bookmakers fully account for the fatigue factor that you’ve identified. Remember, a lackluster first half in London (perhaps a 6-3 score) doesn’t mean the game can’t explode in the second; sometimes teams find their footing and points pour in late. Being nimble and ready to strike on second-half lines can turn a profit in these unique games.

What If the NFL Adds an Overseas Team?

The NFL’s international ambitions don’t stop at a few games each year; the league has openly speculated about a permanent overseas team or even a European division in the future. It might sound far-fetched, but let’s play it out: What would it mean for bettors if, say, the London Jaguars or a Frankfurt franchise became reality?

Are You Ready for the NFL’s Next Betting Frontier?

The NFL’s international presence is expanding, and so are the betting opportunities that come with it. What used to be one token London game per year has turned into a full schedule of NFL overseas matchups, each with its own challenges and variables.

For bettors, this means that their old strategies could use a tune-up. Travel, turf, and time-zone chaos can render a straight statistical comparison incomplete. The smart bettors will be the ones who incorporate the new factors into their models: tracking line movement related to travel news, studying how teams historically perform after long trips, and adjusting risk when unpredictability is high.

Are you changing with the NFL as it enters this next frontier? It could look like backing off a heavy favorite who just flew 5,000 miles, or hopping on a total that doesn’t reflect a looming London downpour. It could mean getting up early to live-bet a groggy first quarter, or digging into a beat reporter’s notes about how a team spent its week in Munich.

As the NFL’s global future unfurls, with talk of more games in far-flung locales and permanent NFL overseas teams, bettors who evolve alongside the league will find the best angles.

The NFL isn’t confined to U.S. soil anymore, and that means your betting playbook shouldn’t be, either!

You can turn the NFL’s international experiments into your betting advantages. The next time you see “LOCATION: London (or Berlin, or Mexico City)” on the schedule, don’t sigh and skip the game! If you use the right approach, you’ll be more than ready for the NFL’s next betting frontier, wherever in the world it happens to go next.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Preview & Prediction (August 2, 2025)

It’s a reeeeematch (you have to say it like a DJ says reeeemix or this doesn’t work). It’s gonna be a doozy, because the Minnesota Lynx are heading to Vegas to play the Aces again. And the Lynx have already beaten them twice.

We’re two-thirds through the regular WNBA season, and the Aces are 7th in the standings, which is way behind the first-place Lynx. They just picked up a 89–74 win over the Sparks, led by A’ja Wilson’s 34 points and a defense that held L.A. to 4-of-24 from three.

The Lynx beat the defending champs, the New York Liberty, 100–93 behind 30 points from league scoring leader Napheesa Collier. Minnesota hit 15 of 31 from three in the win.

Collier and Wilson are both MVP front-runners, the Lynx are this close to being the No. 1 seed, and the Aces need to up their game.

It’s the year of the Lynx, and they’re the hands-down road favs, but can the Aces stop their rampage?

Keep scrolling to see team form, season stats, the latest betting odds, H2H, player matchups, advanced metrics, our picks for the three best bets, and a bonus prop!

Game Details

• Matchup: Minnesota Lynx (23–5) at the Las Vegas Aces (14–13)
• Date & Time: Saturday, August 2, at 3 pm ET
• Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• How to Watch: ABC (national) and ESPN+ (streaming)
• The Stakes: Minnesota leads the Western Conference with a 23–5 record, and Las Vegas is fighting for its life to stay near the playoff bubble at 14–13 in a crowded bracket

Team Form & Season Stats

How have the Lynx and the Aces been playing prior to this game? Let’s take a look:

Betting Odds

Wanna put some cash on this matchup? Look below for the latest odds and lines posted on DraftKings:

Line Movement (before the above latest lines)

• The spread opened at Lynx –4.5 and moved to –5.5 after early betting hit Minnesota.
• The total dropped from 166 to 165 as bettors reacted to the Lynx’s defensive form.

Head-to-Head Breakdown

Minnesota has outscored Las Vegas by a combined 45 points in two meetings this season, including a 31-point rout in their last matchup, which was Vegas’ worst loss of the year.

Season Series

• Game 1: Lynx 92, Aces 78
• Game 2: Lynx 88, Aces 57

Last 5 Matchups

• Minnesota is ahead 4–1 vs. Las Vegas

ATS Record in Series

• The Lynx are 4–1 covering against the Aces during that stretch

Main Player Matchups

Advanced Metrics Breakdown

Want some advanced metrics? You got it!

Our Best Bets

As for the best bets, we have three solid angles and a bonus prop that’s definitely worth a look!

Final Thoughts

Final Score Prediction: Lynx 85, Aces 74

Minnesota’s depth and defensive discipline give them the advantage, and that’s why we add backing them to win. They’ve disrupted the Aces’ offensive rhythm in both previous meetings, limiting passing options and forcing contested shots. Vegas will need superhuman games from both Wilson and Plum just to stay in range.

If the Lynx control the pace by halftime? This could very well follow the same pattern as their earlier wins; smackdowns.

Best Bets Recap

• Lynx ML (–230): High
• Lynx –5: Medium-High
• Under 167: Medium
• A’ja Wilson Over 20.5 pts: Medium

Before placing your bets, always check the most up-to-date odds—lines can shift fast as game time approaches, so staying sharp could make all the difference. And to make sure you’re getting the best value, explore our list of top-rated sports betting sites.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Preview & Prediction (August 1, 2025)

When it comes to head-to-head results, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear favorites to win this game, having won 15 of their last H2H clashes. It has a 62.5% winning probability, much higher than the Tampa Bay Rays’ 37.5%, but H2H results don’t tell the whole story. The Tampa Bay Rays have the young fireballer Shane Baz on their side to take on the Dodgers.

Kershaw’s return for the Dodgers is something to look out for, especially with the Dodgers surging and the Tampa Bay Rays hovering at .500. We can also expect unpredictability on the home field due to the Tampa Bay Rays’ temporary venue change.

Game Details

• Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers (63-46) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (54-56)
• Date & Time: Friday, August 1, 7:35 pm ET/ 4:35 pm PT
• Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa Bay, FL
• How to Watch: Watch on MLB Network, FDSSUN, SportsNet LA
• Weather Forecast: 91° with intermittent clouds. Hot and humid conditions could favor offense, with warmer air aiding ball carry—especially meaningful in a hitter-friendly temporary venue.

Starting Pitching Matchup Breakdown

With Clayton Kershaw starring for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Shane Baz for the Tampa Bay Rays, here’s how the two players fare:

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)

• The player has a 4-2 record with a 3.62 ERA and 48 Ks in 47 innings.
• He is a veteran, no doubt, but has reduced velocity, especially since this season is his first post-surgery.
• We can expect high strikeout rates, as Clayton has a rich history of dominance with high strikeout rates against teams. And the Rays strike out 24.5% of the time.

Shane Baz (Rays)

• He is a young fireballer with an 8-4 record, a 4.61 ERA, and 112 Ks in 105 innings.
• His command has improved significantly, but we must note that he is still vulnerable to home runs and left-handed bats (LHB slash .284/.345/.515).
• Despite his impressive performance, Shane has yet to face a lineup as deep as the LA Dodgers in recent times.

Offensive Trends and Team Form

When it comes to offensive trends and team form, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the edge. Here’s how their performance has been:

Head-to-Head and Historical Edge

The Los Angeles Dodgers have the edge when it comes to head-to-head stats. In its last 5 meetings against the Rays, the Dodgers have won 4 times, and its bullpen has held the Tampa Bay Rays to a .211 AVG in the last 6 matchups. We also get higher runs with the Dodgers at 118 compared to the Rays’ 94 (in their previous 24 head-to-head games).

Ballpark and Environment Factors

The Steinbrenner Field (AAA-level stadium) will play host to the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays clash. It has shorter dimensions that favor home run hitters. And the expected warm and humid weather could carry the ball.

As for the crowd, we expect the crowd to be the smallest for the Dodgers in three years. That’s because the game isn’t a true home match for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Live Betting Odds

Thinking about placing a bet on this matchup? Check out the latest odds and lines from FanDuel:

Keep an eye on the odds—lines can shift quickly before first pitch, and staying updated gives you a better shot at locking in value before it moves.

Top Player Props to Consider

• Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run—Excellent matchup vs. Baz’s four-seamer.
• Clayton Kershaw Over 5.5 Strikeouts – If healthy, Rays’ swing-and-miss tendencies could give him value.
• Yandy Díaz Over 1.5 Total Bases—Hottest bat for Tampa, likely to make contact vs. Kershaw.

Our Best Bets

Our Final Verdict: Experience Over Youth

Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Tampa Bay Rays 3

The LA Dodgers have the firepower and, most importantly, the experience, which gives them the upper hand, even on the road. You can also expect Kershaw to go 5+ innings and hand off to a solid bullpen. The Rays, on the other hand, will likely struggle to string hits against LA’s lefty-righty mix.

Before betting on Dodgers vs. Rays or any upcoming game, take a look at our sports betting strategies and don’t forget to line shop with trusted sportsbooks—check our top sports betting sites.

The Underdog Advantage: How to Spot and Capitalize on Upset Opportunities

Although upsets are relatively rare in sports betting, there can be much to gain from making a successful pick on an underdog team or player—you can enjoy a much bigger payout than usual and get the satisfaction of spotting an opportunity that most other people missed.

Picking bets where you can take advantage of an upset can’t be done by the seat of your pants. Bettors who find these opportunities look at statistical analysis and head-to-head matchups on both teams or players involved in the wager. You must also understand the reason the lines move, be it for the legitimate likelihood of the outcome or the bookmakers trying to balance out the betting action.

We’ll discuss how to spot and capitalize on underdog bets where you can seize opportunities on upsets. Remember that these bets involve solid research and shouldn’t be used as a day-to-day strategy. Read our guide to betting upsets, and you’ll learn when to strike, the best ways to bet on an upset, and how to use stats and data to inform your approach.

What Is an Upset?

An upset in sports betting is an entirely unexpected result. It occurs when the team or player favored to win doesn’t come through. The underdog wins over the favored player or team (who should take them handily).

Betting on upsets means that you’re getting longer odds because the likelihood of the underdog outcome is less likely to happen. However, getting the bet on the underdog right results in a bigger payout than you’d get betting on your favorite team.

In the example above, the Pittsburgh Steelers are heavily favored to win over the Cleveland Browns, and a $120 bet will profit $100. However, a $100 bet on Cleveland can yield a profit of $230 if they can pull off an upset over the Steelers. You can see that betting on Cleveland has longer odds, but you’ll profit more due to their unlikelihood of winning.

Betting on the underdog team can be much more profitable, but you cannot bet on the underdog willy-nilly and cross your fingers, hoping for them to win. Spotting good underdog betting opportunities with online sports betting is rooted in understanding why lines and odds change before the game and knowing how to identify overreactions in betting markets that create value. Additionally, researching each of your selections using statistical analysis and historical data is crucial. We’ll get into these ideas in the next section, so read on!

How Do You Predict an Upset in Sports Betting?

Before we understand the various strategies for predicting upsets in sports betting, know that upsets only happen occasionally. The favorite usually always wins, so you should expect to lose much of the time when you’re betting on upsets. Betting the underdog is inherently riskier, and you see this with the longer odds and larger potential payout. The excellent news about betting on upsets is that you don’t have to win every bet to make a profit.

Use these strategies and tricks for pinpointing upset opportunities and making the best picks possible:

Look at the Entire Context

The best bets are grounded in statistics and research—the key to long-term success in online sports betting. Working off your gut instinct, hunches, or what other people are anecdotally telling you doesn’t produce the successful results you’ll get from analyzing statistics and historical data. After all, studying prior teams’ or players’ history can be a good indicator of what could happen in the future.

So, what information are you looking into to inform these upset bets? A few of the critical factors you should be examining include the following:

• Keep in the loop on player injuries or suspensions. Sometimes, it doesn’t make much of a difference, but it could impact the outcome if it’s one of the key players. Injuries or suspensions on the favorite team, in particular, are reasonable indications that an upset is imminent.
• Check the weather before the game. If the forecast calls for snow, rain, or some other unideal condition, these are good times to bet on upsets because many of them occur during low-scoring games when the weather is terrible.
• Keep track of which teams have to travel. If the favorite team has to travel through a few time zones to get to the game, they are prone to poor performance due to jet lag or bad sleep.

Good research is your key to staying ahead of public betting sentiment and finding situations where upsets are likelier to happen. There’s still a place for betting based on your gut, but it’s only best when it’s coupled with numbers, historical data, and looking at the complete context of the game or matchup.

Use Data and Statistics to Analyze the Teams or Players

After looking at the entire context of the upcoming game or event, it’s time to research the teams or players who will be participating. Recent performances and current form can’t be emphasized when choosing your upset betting opportunities. Regardless of who the favorite or the underdog is, take some time to see how each team or player has performed recently. You can get a good idea of which momentum is moving, which could be a more accurate indicator of who will win.

Aside from determining where the primary momentum is going, there are a few other factors to consider before betting on an upset:

• Think about two teams facing off with a history of solid defense. It won’t be a high-scoring game, but these are fertile grounds for upsets.
• If the teams have opposite strengths, like the underdog being good at defense and the favorite being good at offense, an upset is less likely to occur. Look for teams with similar strengths—these bets are ripe for upsets.
• Consider betting on upsets if you’re dealing with a strong team with a super specific Achilles heel, like a quarterback who chokes occasionally.
• It’s essential to look at coaching, too. You might have a strong team with a coach who tends to follow the same strategies and style versus a weaker team with a coach who can better adapt to unexpected situations. These are prime opportunities to bet on upsets, too.

As mentioned before, looking for recent performances, such as the last five to ten games, can give you much insight into the team’s current form and the likelihood of how well they’ll perform in their next matchup.

The Importance of Line Movement

Upsets can be profitable for bettors because of the line movement in online sports betting. Knowing why lines move and how they affect value for the underdog team or competitor is the other half of successful upset betting that you’ll want to pair with the statistics and research you’re doing to inform your selections.

Bookmakers want relatively even action on either side of a bet to be profitable no matter the outcome. If the book sees that a lot of the public is backing the favorite, which happens all the time, they offer a reduced price on the odds for betting on the underdog to incentivize people to place bets on the dog. This creates value that appeals to those who are looking for a deal.

So, to balance the betting action, the books usually have odds that don’t truly reflect the likelihood of each outcome. This is why good research on your betting selections is essential. You can’t always trust the books’ numbers. The odds could actually signify the actual likelihood of who will win or lose, or they could be significantly skewed!

The Public Bets the Favorite

The casual betting public is usually drawn to wagering on the biggest names in sports and games where many points will be scored. This is why you see a lot of recreational bettors betting on your favorite team or competitor. You can find some good opportunities for betting on an upset with games like these, where a lot of the betting public will heavily favor one side because the books are bound to discount the odds for the dog—line movement. It can give you an excellent idea of what the public thinks!

Ways to Bet on Upsets

The best way to bet on upsets is with singles bets like money lines (betting on the winner), point spreads (betting the margin of victory), or over/unders (betting on the final combined score).

Money Lines

Money lines are bets where you try to predict the winner of the game correctly. Let’s go over an example of how you can successfully bet on upset for an upcoming football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers:

According to your favorite online sportsbooks, these are the odds of either team winning. The implied probability for each set of odds is as follows:

You begin researching both teams to see if there’s a chance for an upset to occur here, where the Packers can win over the Bengals. This is what you find that indicates an upset is possible:

• The Cincinnati Bengals have won the last three games in a row, but they’ve been close each time.
• One of their linebackers is on suspension, which could affect the outcome, though it’s not sure.
• If you consult historical data and look at prior games between the Bengals and the Packers, you will find that the Packers have won quite a few games against Cincinnati.

Despite this research, the Bengals remain the favorite to win this upcoming game. However, based on the statistics and data you’ve reviewed, you give them a lower probability of winning. You give them a 1 in 5 shot of reigning victorious over the Packers, which translates into 20%. When you compare this with the implied probability of 31.25% of Green Bay winning, you smell an upset, but you’ll want to get the best price possible on the odds for betting, which shouldn’t be hard considering the situation at hand!

Knowing that the Bengals are favored to win, you know all too well that most of the public’s money will go toward Cincinnati, forcing the book to lower their price on the odds for Green Bay. When betting on the Bengals gets hyped up, watch for the odds to get longer but for the prices to go down in your favor. When the line moves, place your bet!

Point Spreads

One of the safer routes for betting on upsets is doing it through point spreads or handicap betting, where you’re trying to predict the margin of victory correctly. Bettors can get excellent value on bets where the favorite is expected to win by a wide margin. You’ll get a lot of casual bettors wagering on the favorite, thus creating some good value on the odds for the dog.

Let’s look at another example of the Cincinnati and Green Bay game to give you a little more context:

Using standard American odds of -110, a bet for the favored Bengals to win means that they must win by over 4 points; otherwise, it’s considered a lost bet. Betting on the Packers results in a win if they win outright over the Bengals or lose by less than 4 points. If you’re dealing with two teams that are evenly matched when scoring points, you could be dealing with a game that could go either way, especially with a point spread this narrow.

Follow the steps outlined in our section on finding upset opportunities in moneyline betting and apply them to spread betting. Just wait for the line to move and then spring into action to get the best value possible.

Wrapping Up: Turning Underdog Insight into Betting Success

Betting on underdogs isn’t just about chasing big payouts—it’s about identifying value where others overlook it. Through careful research, understanding of line movement, and close attention to situational factors like injuries, travel, and recent performance, you can begin to spot upset opportunities that casual bettors miss. Upset betting may not produce frequent wins, but with a calculated approach, even a modest hit rate can yield long-term profitability.

Ultimately, success in underdog betting hinges on preparation and discipline. By combining statistical analysis with market awareness—like spotting sharp money or tracking public betting patterns—you equip yourself to bet smarter, not harder. Whether you’re new to betting or sharpening an existing strategy, learning how to capitalize on underdog value can give you a real edge in a market that often favors the favorite.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Preview & Prediction (August 1, 2025)

Brittney Griner will take on her former team since joining the Atlanta Dream. She averages 10.2 points with 5.7 rebounds, and let’s not forget that the Atlanta Dream team is also the best they’ve had in several years. The Dream took home the win in their last encounter against the Phoenix Mercury. But is Mercury prepared to make up for the last encounter that ended 79:90?

Mercury will go into the game with a loss against the Fever, while the Dream will have to fight off fatigue despite coming from a win on the road against the Wings. The Dream has also grabbed the win in its last three encounters on the road. But when it comes to season stats, both teams are on par, each taking 16 wins so far in the season.

As for the head-to-head stats, the Phoenix Mercury has the upper hand with 10 wins compared to the Dream’s 6 wins. These stats are based on their encounters for the past 6 years, which puts the Phoenix Mercury as the favorite, but let’s review even further.

Game Details and Context

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–10) vs. Atlanta Dream (16–11)
• Date & Time: Friday, August 1, at 8 pm MT / 10 pm ET,
• Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, Georgia
• How to Watch: CBSSN nationally and WNBA League Pass

Here are some key storylines to keep in mind as we run through our pick for the game:

• Atlanta is playing back-to-back and without all-star Rhyne Howard.
• Phoenix is healthy and features Sabally, Copper, and Thomas, all ramped up.
• Home-court advantage key: Mercury 9-5 at home, Dream just 5-9 on the road.

Team Analysis

Both teams have fared well this season, but if we were to judge from the last five encounters, then the Atlanta Dream has the upper hand. The team has won four out of its last five matches, and all four have been on the road. The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, has won only one of its last five encounters. But those aren’t enough to pick the winner. Let’s consider the key team strengths and weaknesses.

Betting Lines and Trends

The sportsbooks have weighed in—here are the most up-to-date odds from ESPN BET:

• ATS & O/U Trends:
  • Dream: 3‑7 ATS last 10 games, under in 4 of 6 road games recently.
  • Mercury: 6‑3 ATS last 9, 4‑1 ATS last 5 at home. Under has hit in 4 of the last 6 overall games.

Gameflow and Matchups

It looks like Allisha Gray will have to carry the Atlanta Dream in this game, as the team has a thin bench, size mismatch, and travel fatigue. And let’s not forget the absence of all-star Rhyne Howard.

On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury has been much faster at home, and it’ll come into the game with a full, healthy roster. The team also has a stellar depth compared to the Atlanta Dream. It is likely to overwhelm the Atlanta Dream as its elite defense fends off the Dream offense.

Best Bets

Make sure to check the latest odds on our best sports betting sites before placing your Mercury vs. Dream bets—lines can move as tip-off approaches, and staying informed can help you find the best value.

Our Take: Lock in These Picks

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 88 – Atlanta Dream 77

The Phoenix Mercury will have no stress covering, but the total stays under.

The Atlanta Dream goes on depleted and without adequate rest against a healthier Phoenix Mercury, which has also been dominant at home. You can expect a physical and lower-scoring control game.

When it comes to offense and defense, the Phoenix Mercury is a master of both and will likely outplay the Atlanta Dream. The Mercury also has better depth and energy levels compared to the Dream, which is on the second leg of its back-to-back on the road.

As for our top picks and confidence levels, here are the bets to consider:

1. Mercury -2.5 (spread): High confidence
2. Under 164.5: Moderate confidence
3. Mercury ML (Moneyline): Solid parlay anchor

Monterrey vs. FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Preview (July 31, 2025)

FC Cincinnati has a lot of balls in the air this summer! Their ambitions? Another Supporters’ Shield while kicking off a serious push for Leagues Cup silverware. Their tournament run starts Thursday night at TQL Stadium, where Pat Noonan’s squad will host LIGA MX heavyweight CF Monterrey in their group stage opener.

Cincinnati has the home advantage, and TQL Stadium has been good to them this season. But Monterrey ran through them in last year’s Concacaf Champions Cup. Both clubs have made changes, and the lines are almost even, so this one? It isn’t exactly a soft landing place for either team.

Who you got for this one? Keep reading for what we think about this matchup, betting odds, recent form, head-to-head stats, the players we’ll be watching, tactical breakdown, and our picks for the three best bets!

Match Details

• Matchup: CF Monterrey (Liga MX) vs. FC Cincinnati (MLS)
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 31, 7:00 pm ET / 4:00 pm PT
• Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
• How to Watch: Stream exclusively on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV (select US matches on FS1). In Cincinnati, listen on ESPN 1530 (English) or La Mega 101.5 FM (Spanish)
• Competition: Leagues Cup 2025, Phase One (Group Stage, Matchday 1)

Match-Up Overview

Let’s take a quick look at Monterrey and Cincinnati team-wise!

Recent Form & Head-to-Head

How have these two clubs been playing, and what’s their history?

Head-to-Head (all-time)

• Monterrey leads the series 2–0
• Last meeting: 5–0 on aggregate in the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup
• This will be their first meetup at TQL Stadium

Players to Watch

There’s a ton of talent on this pitch; Monterrey’s experience and technical edge come through in key areas, and Cincinnati’s more direct, aggressive style puts pressure on other areas. Here’s who to keep your eye on!

Monterrey

• Sergio Canales: Central to the attack with precise passing and control in close spaces
• Rogelio Funes Mori: A reliable finisher who consistently converts chances inside the box
• Luis Romo: Links midfield and defense really well, and is great at disrupting counterattacks and initiating transitions

FC Cincinnati

• Luciano Acosta: Orchestrates Cincinnati’s buildup play, regularly finds gaps with well-timed passes
• Matt Miazga: Physical anchor in the back line, critical for defending Monterrey’s aerial entries
• Alvas Powell: Adds width on the right and looks to feed crosses into the box from advanced areas

Betting Odds

If you’re betting on this game, here are the latest odds and lines via DraftKings:

• Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes: -180 | No: +145

Always check the most current odds before betting—lines can move quickly as kickoff nears, and staying informed could be the key to smarter wagers.

Tactical Breakdown

We’ll be watching a battle between control and disruption. Monterrey likes to dictate play with methodical buildup, and Cincinnati is more direct; they’re compact in shape, quick to pressure, and always looking to rush forward once they get the ball.

Our Best Bets

Not sure what to wager? No worries, we have three solid-looking bets below!

Cincy’s Redemption Game? Our Final Verdict

Final Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2 – 1 Monterrey

Last year’s blowout? We know Cincinnati hasn’t forgotten. And this time, they’re on their own field, in better form, and have a tighter setup across the back. 

Acosta is still the centerpiece, but Cincinnati also has stronger players around him, so he doesn’t have to go it alone. Monterrey will probably control long stretches of possession, but Cincinnati’s ability to break quickly and capitalize on openings? It makes this a winnable matchup.

We’re backing the home team with the Draw No Bet; it makes the most sense! Cincinnati’s been really strong at home and usually finds a way to finish chances when they have the openings.

Best Bets Recap

• FC Cincinnati Draw No Bet (-105): 8/10 confidence
• Both Teams to Score – Yes (-180): 7/10 confidence
• Over 2.5 Total Goals (-150): 6.5/10 confidence

Before placing your bet, double-check the confirmed lineups, review the latest injury updates, and compare odds across trusted sportsbooks to lock in the best value.

Robot Umpires & MLB Betting: Could Automated Strike Zones Shift Run-Line Bets?

Robot umpires could be coming to an MLB ballpark near you. Did you think that AI was only coming for non-sports jobs? The baseball players are safe for now, as the engineer overlords haven’t figured out how to make a coordinated one.

But the human umps? Their job security isn’t so secure anymore. And we aren’t exactly mad at the thought of automated strike zones. Umpires are human and make mistakes, and strike calls in the MLB still are judgment calls.

One night, a pitch at the knees gets the call, and the next night it doesn’t. It’s all part of the game, but it alters everything from pitch counts to final scores.

MLB has been tinkering with automated strike zones for years, and what started in the independent leagues is now a regular feature at Triple-A, and the league has already tested it in spring training.

Will it be full automation or a challenge-based system? We don’t know, and the MLB hasn’t said. But if it does happen, what will it mean for bettors? And run lines?

When the zone doesn’t change from game to game, pitcher performance, scoring patterns, and betting angles will all look different. So we are gonna look at the early data, what’s been changed at the minor league level, and what bettors should be aware of as the strike zone gets standardized!

What Are Robot Umpires?

If you’re thinking about a cute lil robot standing behind home plate wearing a tiny uniform of the standard dark slacks and short-sleeved polo shirt, we are sorry to tell you that’s not what it is. We were disappointed as well.

A robot umpire is a misnomer. As we said, we aren’t talking about R2D2 chilling at home plate. Nope, it’s an Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system, and it’s a technology that uses radar or camera tracking to call pitches as balls or strikes with high precision. In practice, the system (like Hawk-Eye or TrackMan) measures a pitch’s location and relays the call to the human umpire’s earpiece instantly. The human umpire still signals the call, but they are just following the machine’s calls.

How Run-Line Betting Works in MLB

Ok, before we get into the betting impact, we need to do a quick refresher on run-line bets. A run-line is baseball’s version of a point spread. In a typical MLB game, the favorite is -1.5 runs (meaning they must win by 2 or more runs to cover), and the underdog is +1.5 runs (they can lose by 1 run and still cover, or, of course, win outright). This 1.5-run spread is almost always used as the default line, which is why you’ll see something like Yankees -1.5 / Red Sox +1.5 with associated odds. It adds extra complexity beyond the moneyline (which is just picking the winner) because it factors in the margin of victory.

How Run-line Bets Differ from ML and Totals

Run-line bets differ from moneyline bets in that you’re not just asking “who will win?” but “who will win, and by how much?”

If the favorite wins 3-2, a moneyline bettor on the favorite cashes in, but a run-line bettor on the favorite loses (since 3-2 is only a one-run win, not covering the -1.5 spread). Conversely, run-line underdog bettors often win bets on close losses. It’s a really popular wager type because it can turn heavy favorites into more profitable bets (if you’re confident they’ll win by 2+), and it gives underdog backers a cushion in a typically low-scoring sport where one run is huge.

Main Betting Factors

There are a lot of factors that influence run-line betting decisions.

• Pitching matchups are paramount; a great starting pitcher can suppress scoring, and that makes it harder for a favorite to pull away by 2 runs.
• Bullpen quality and late-inning tendencies matter if leads get extended or blown.
• Ballpark factors (a game at a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field vs. a pitcher-friendly park like Petco Park).
• The weather (wind blowing out vs. in) can sway expected run totals and thus the likelihood of a big margin.

Bettors also consider umpire tendencies, and we’ve now come full circle! There are umpires who have a reputation for a tight strike zone (favoring hitters and runs), and others who call a wide zone (favoring pitchers and unders).

All of these tendencies can influence scoring: If they call more balls, which results in additional walks, more runs can score. Other umpires can call fewer balls, and that could reduce the number of runs scored. Astute bettors will check who the home plate umpire is and adjust their over/under or run-line bets accordingly.

An analysis of umpire stats found that nearly half of the umps studied in a season showed a bias toward either overs or unders in total runs. For example, in 2010, Fieldin Culbreth’s games went over the betting total ~63% of the time (suggesting a smaller zone/hitter-friendly), whereas Doug Eddings’ games went over only ~33% (a big zone favoring pitchers and lower scores).

Sportsbooks are aware of these patterns and will shade totals for extreme cases, but it’s an extra variable in the betting equation.

The main point is this: human variability in calling balls and strikes is one of those factors that can change an MLB game’s run distribution. A generous strike call in a pivotal moment can kill a potential rally, and a tight zone can extend innings and boost scoring. That’s why a move to an automated strike zone stands to impact betting! It totally eradicates one source of volatility that bettors and oddsmakers have historically baked into betting lines.

Human Umpires’ Impact on Game Outcomes

Human umpires, for all of their experience and training, are not perfect or consistent. Every fan has seen a strike three call on a pitch a foot outside, or a pitcher lose a strike because the ump didn’t like the height or the catcher’s framing.

And inconsistencies aren’t anecdotal; they show up in the data.

In the 2024 MLB season, Statcast data showed that 10.9% of pitches thrown in the rulebook strike zone were called balls by umpires, and 6.3% of pitches outside the zone were erroneously called strikes. In other words, about 1 in every 10 true strikes was missed, and about 1 in 16 balls was mistakenly gifted as a strike. Over a full game with, say, 300 pitches, that’s on the order of 20+ potentially incorrect calls. Each one could change an at-bat outcome, which can snowball into changing innings and final scores.

Different Umpires, Different Calls

There’s also a big variation between different umpires. The strike zone is not actually a fixed rectangle in practice; it’s a human judgment influenced by habit and perspective. A study of umpire strike zones from 2008–2016 found that some umps consistently call many more strikes than others, especially on the edges of the zone.

Veteran ump Bill Miller was shown to call about 1,100 more strikes than the average umpire over a span of years; roughly 4 extra strikes per game, often on the fringes of the zone. He was the quintessential “pitcher’s umpire,” giving pitchers the benefit of the doubt on borderline pitches high, low, inside, and outside.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are umpires like Gerry Davis and Greg Gibson who have notably tight zones (sometimes called “hitter’s umpires”), calling fewer strikes than average, especially around the edges. The difference from one ump to another can be huge: analysis of 2017 data indicated the most pitcher-friendly ump was calling about 10 more strikes per game than the most hitter-friendly ump. That’s a huge factor in how a game might play out, as more strikes generally mean quicker outs, fewer walks, and typically lower scoring.

The tendencies impact not only totals but also how runs are distributed, which ties into run-line outcomes. An umpire with a tiny zone might contribute to more baserunners and potentially more big innings (as pitchers struggle to get strike calls and may have to throw easier pitches over the plate).

But an ump with a really generous zone could keep games tighter by suppressing offense, and teams might score less frequently, perhaps leading to more one-run games rather than blowouts. Bettors track umpire stats: historically, you could find umpire-by-umpire records against the total (over or under) and even how often favorites cover the run line under certain umps. As we said, almost half of the umpires in one sample leaned notably toward either higher or lower scoring games.

Extreme cases like Jim Reynolds (64% of his games went Over the total in 2010) or Greg Gibson (only 22% went Over, meaning 78% Under) show that an ump’s strike zone consistency (or lack thereof) can absolutely influence and change the margins of victory.

Famous (or Infamous) Examples

And of course, there are the headline-grabbing examples of umpire mistakes that altered baseball games. In a nationally televised game in April 2022, veteran ump Angel Hernandez had only 77% accuracy on strikes (well below the ~93% league average) and “rung up” multiple batters on pitches clearly outside the zone.

Phillies hitter Kyle Schwarber famously blew up at Hernandez after a called strike that was nowhere near the zone, and it was a demonstration of how a human umpire can inject chaos into such a crucial moment; blown calls can directly affect whether a team extends a lead or falls behind. Bettors who had the Phillies -1.5 in that game (just as an example) might feel that a missed ball four call, which should have been a walk (but became a strikeout), robbed them of a potential rally to cover the spread.

The human element in umpiring introduces variability in game outcomes, and it’s a variability that skilled bettors try to account for, but with robot umpires? That would be eliminated.

How Robot Umpires Could Change the Game

If MLB does end up changing to automated strike zones, we’d see an immediate and big shift in how games are played. The most obvious? The change is in strike zone consistency.

Why? Because a robo-ump doesn’t “expand” the zone for a pitcher on a hot streak or tighten it because a catcher is bad at framing. It calls the rulebook zone, pitch after pitch, with the same calibration for all. Human umpires call pitches probabilistically on the edges; sometimes a strike, sometimes a ball on identical pitches, whereas an automated system will make the same call every time for a pitch in a given location. Those borderline low-and-away sliders that one ump might call a ball and another a strike will have a uniform verdict.

Less Borderline Discrepancies 

What could this mean in practice? For one, fewer borderline discrepancies. There will be no more “make-up calls” or individual ump decisions where a pitch is a strike in the 1st inning but not in the 9th. Over the course of a game (and season), that should decrease the variability in count outcomes.

A borderline 3-2 pitch with bases loaded will be called correctly, one way or the other. This could lead to less argument-induced drama, but more importantly for competition, it means players will adjust to a stable zone. Hitters won’t have to bother holding up their hand asking, “was that high?” because they know that the machine is precise. Pitchers could attack the exact top/bottom of the zone with more confidence, knowing they’ll get the strike if they hit it (and conversely, knowing there’s no hope of an ump giving them an inch off the plate anymore).

Player Performance

From a performance standpoint, we can only speculate on which types of players benefit or suffer. Let’s think about pitchers first. A strikeout pitcher (one with good velocity or nasty stuff that catches the zone) could see a benefit: if they can paint the real edges, they’ll get those calls consistently.

Some power pitchers throw rising fastballs at the top of the zone that occasionally get ruled balls by a human ump who perceives it as too high, but a robot will call those strikes if they nip the zone, potentially increasing high strike calls. And finesse pitchers or “nibblers” who succeed by getting hitters to chase just outside the zone or by relying on a catcher stealing strikes might lose an edge.

With ABS, a pitch that is two inches off the plate will never be called a strike (whereas a good framer and a friendly ump might have gotten that call before). An aspect that players disliked about full ABS was that it removed the art of pitch framing; catchers could no longer influence calls. Those catchers (and their pitchers) could no longer “steal” strikes on borderline pitches by presentation.

ABS Trials

There’s evidence that in the ABS trials, pitching dynamics did shift. In some early uses of full ABS, walks increased by a lot. MLB executives explained that in Triple-A games with full automation, walks became more prevalent, causing games to drag on longer despite the pitch clock.

Why more walks? Likely because pitchers couldn’t get those generous calls on borderline balls, so hitters were more often awarded walks on close pitches that a human might have called a strike. There are also reports that strikeouts actually dipped with the automated zone in certain minor league samples.

A Baseball America analysis of Triple-A data indicated the strikeout rate went down a little, but the walk rate went up, and that’s not exactly the outcome many expected, but it does suggest the zone called by the robot was tighter (or at least different) than what many umps were calling.

In the International League (Triple-A East), runs per game rose from about 4.98 to 5.50 after introducing ABS, walks increased from 4.0 to 4.8 per 9 innings, and hits ticked up as well. This aligns with the idea that a perfectly enforced zone would favor hitters in some ways, certainly in drawing walks, if not in hitting. It’s worth noting MLB adjusted the strike zone dimensions in the ABS system a few times to try to get the “right” balance, so not all ABS zones are identical. A too-big zone would favor pitchers excessively, a too-small zone vice versa. They’re looking for a happy medium that matches the intended rulebook zone without crushing offense or inflating it.

Another expected effect is a decrease in those game-altering “what if” moments that are set off by bad calls. Think about blow-up innings; sometimes a missed strike three leads directly to mayhem.

If an ump misses a strike call that would have been the third out, the at-bat continues, and the batter hits a 3-run double. With ABS, that third out is called correctly, the inning is over, and the rally is prevented. In theory, fewer big innings will be fueled by umpire mistakes, because those mistakes are gone. This could mean more predictable scoring progressions. It’s not to say that big innings won’t happen (they will, via hits and legit walks), but they won’t happen because an umpire gave a free pass or a free strike.

ABS will also prevent situations where a batter was mistakenly called out on strikes on ball four; those innings will now continue when they should have, possibly creating rallies that were unfairly halted before. The net effect is hard to quantify, but overall? The outcomes should lean more toward what the players earn, instead of what an umpire mis-sees.

Could automated zones lead to more offense or less? The early data and player feedback suggest more offense (more walks, slightly higher on-base, maybe slightly longer games) unless the zone is adjusted. MLB saw that as a negative when the pace of play suffered, which is partly why they currently favor the challenge system (let the human call it and only fix the egregious misses).

But regardless of offensive levels, the key is consistency and reduced variance. The day-to-day fluctuation caused by “which ump is behind the plate” would pretty much vanish if every game had the same calibrated zone or the ability to challenge bad calls.

Implications for Run-Line Bettors

From a betting perspective, a world with robot umpires? It’s a world with one less variable (and one less source of randomness) in each game. Below are 5 big-picture implications for run-line bettors!

Possible Changes in Betting Strategy

Assuming that automated strike zones do become a reality, bettors will have to adjust their strategies! Look below for some changes to think about if it does happen.

What the Data Says So Far (Early Trends)

While we don’t have any major-league data for robot umps, the minor league trials give us some clues. We’ve already talked about the main stats: more walks, possibly fewer strikeouts, and a slight increase in runs were observed in some ABS implementations. But we can recap a few early trends from where it’s been used!

Triple-A 2022-2023

In one Triple-A league, after introducing the automated zone, walks went up around 0.8 per game (per team) and strikeouts were roughly flat or dipped slightly, resulting in about a half-run increase in scoring. This suggests that pitchers couldn’t get as many borderline strike calls, putting more men on base via walks. But it didn’t produce a massive offensive explosion, only a moderate bump. Hitters weren’t all of a sudden teeing off for 10 runs a game; they were just reaching base a little more often via the base on balls.

Atlantic League 2019

In the initial indie-league trial, qualitative reports said players were intrigued but had complaints about certain pitches being strikes that never were before (like breaking balls that clip the very bottom of the zone). Statistically, an article from The Ringer noted that the Atlantic League saw strikeout and walk rates rise slightly when ABS was first used, but overall offense (batting average, hitting) stayed almost unchanged. The shape of offense shifted (more Ks and BBs, fewer balls in play), but it didn’t dramatically alter the runs scored.

Player Reactions

Pitchers and hitters have commented on robot umps in minor league play. A common sentiment from pitchers is frustration at the “weird” strike zone.

Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta, after a Triple-A rehab start under ABS, said: “I hate it. It’s terrible. Hopefully it never comes [to MLB]. The strike zone is just weird, it just doesn’t match the baseball.”

Hitters have complained as well about high strikes or breaking pitches that clip the zone late, which are things umps often call balls but ABS won’t miss. This says that there will be an adjustment period for players, and it’s a window where some teams will suffer and others benefit until everyone adapts.

Challenge System Data

MLB’s spring 2025 test of the ABS challenge system revealed some interesting stats, too. Teams only challenged about 2.6% of all called pitches (so 97% of calls stood unchallenged), and about 52% of challenges resulted in overturned calls (meaning the ump was wrong on roughly half of the ones players thought were wrong). Catchers were the most successful challengers (winning 56% of their challenges) compared to pitchers (41%), likely because catchers have the best view and sense of the zone. For bettors, if the challenge system is in play, it means that some of the worst calls will be corrected, but some will still occur (you can’t challenge everything, just a few per game). So the impact on run-lines under a challenge system could be smaller, as it trims the extreme misses but doesn’t make every call perfect. Full ABS would be a bigger step-change.

Runs and Margins

It’s way too early to conclude how margins of victory change. But one could look at the distribution of scores in ABS vs non-ABS games in Triple-A for clues. If ABS games had slightly higher variance in scoring due to more walks, or maybe lower variance due to consistent zones, these are the things that data scientists are studying.

One thing we do know? With human umps, about 28-30% of MLB games historically are decided by one run. If robot umps alter that percentage even a little, it changes run-line outcomes.

Could This Actually Help Bettors?

A consistent strike zone takes one unpredictable element off the table. And for those bettors who rely on data and matchup breakdowns? That’s a very good thing. Fewer surprises behind the plate mean outcomes line up more closely with what the numbers suggest.

But that also cuts both ways! If the zone becomes easier to account for, sportsbooks will adjust quickly, and any short-term edge could dry up, so it could be a lot harder to find mispriced lines.

The shift could make things more approachable for newer bettors. Because there are fewer hidden variables in play, projections become cleaner, and the gap between casual and experienced players might shrink, at least for a little while.

The Robot Umps Are Coming: Is Your Run-Line Strategy Ready?

If we’re being honest, the only thing we love more than a bench-clearing field brawl is when a coach loses their sh*t on an umpire before they’re ejected from the game. We’ll miss that!

But robot umpires remove that human error factor that makes players get in their faces, and that’s a good thing (for the umps and the game as a whole).

Once the strike zone stops changing from night to night? Betting on the margins won’t feel quite the same. The usual ump-driven change in baseball game outcomes could be a thing of the past.

Run-line outcomes will always depend on pitching matchups and lineup strength, but plate discipline and pitcher control will matter more. If and when robot umpires happen, watch how teams adjust in those games! Seeing any trends early on will give you an advantage if this system ever does make it to the show.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Prediction & Preview (July 30, 2025)

Two teams that haven’t battled it out on the hardwood this season finally meet in a matchup! The playoff hopefuls are the Phoenix Mercury, who head to Indiana to take on the Fever. 

First things first, Caitlin Clark is not playing. She’s still sidelined with a groin injury and was ruled out for her fifth straight game. In spite of her absence, the Fever (14-12) is on a two-game win streak and wants to keep it going. Without Clark? Kelsey Mitchell has taken on most of the scoring duties for Indiana.

Phoenix (16-9) is coming off a win over the Washington Mystics; they’ve been killing it on the offense and rebound, and we see them as the more reliable bet because of how well they’ve defended.

Sportsbooks are calling this game pretty even, but the early action is looking like it favors the Mercury side. What else do you need to know? Keep reading to see the latest betting odds, trends, stats, players, and props, our best bets, and why we chose them!

Game Details

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–9) vs. Indiana Fever (14–12)
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 30, at 7:00 pm ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• How to Watch: WNBA League Pass, Bally Sports Indiana, local broadcast
• Head-to-Head: The first of three matchups this WNBA season

Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have spoken, and here are the latest betting lines from FanDuel:

Betting Trends & Stats

How have both teams performed at sportsbooks, and what can the recent trends tell us going into the game?

• Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Mercury: 14–11
  • Fever: 13–13
• Totals (Over/Under)
  • Mercury: 12–12–1
  • Fever: 13–13
• Scoring Notes
  • Indiana’s games are averaging around 165.9 combined points.
  • Phoenix has stayed under the total in 4 of their last 6 games.
• Situational Trends
  • Indiana is 3–1 straight up at home over their last four games.
  • Phoenix has won 4 of its last 5 road games.
  • The underdog has covered in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two squads.

Players & Props to Watch

Because Clark is still out, Indiana’s offense has been relying more on its vets, and Phoenix is on fire with a really balanced core. Here are the players that we are watching on the board and in the poor market!

Game Breakdown & Strategy Angles

Phoenix’s ball control and defensive length could overwhelm an Indiana team that’s still trying to adapt to playing without Clark!

Our Best Bets

What are we looking at for value? Well, we have five angles for this matchup! Here are our best bets:

FYI: Make sure you check our best online sportsbooks as it gets closer to tipoff for any line movement and prop availability!

Supporting Insights & Sharp Angles

• Phoenix is 8–2 when holding a lead after three quarters; Indiana is 3–6 in the same scenario.
• The Fever have allowed the most offensive rebounds in the league, and that’s bad news against Thomas and Sabally’s inside presence.
• The Mercury has scored 80 or more in five of their last six because of spacing and good ball movement.
• Indiana ranks in the bottom five in opponent field goal percentage, making them vulnerable to Phoenix’s early shot creation.
• Market movement and bet volume are trending toward the Mercury against the spread and Over 164.5

Why We’re Backing the Mercury Over the Fever

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82 – Indiana Fever 74

Phoenix has the more experienced core, and it shows when games are close. Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Cloud are leading the half-court sets and controlling the tempo late; they’re better equipped to close out tight matchups than Indiana’s current rotation.

The Fever have issues limiting second-chance points, and it’s an area where the Mercury’s size and rebounding depth (Thomas, Sabally) give them an advantage. Without Caitlin Clark’s rebounding and transition presence? Indiana becomes easier to scout: it forces Kelsey Mitchell into contested looks, and the offense slows way down.

Phoenix’s frontcourt versatility has been a problem for Indiana in the past, and their scoring balance gives them more ways to win than the Mitchell-or-bust approach the Fever are using.

Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven meetings between these teams, but Phoenix fits the short road favorite role here: deeper, steadier, and way less dependent on one scorer carrying the whole team.

Best Bets Recap

• Phoenix Mercury –3.5 (–108): Confidence: 4/5
• Moneyline: Phoenix ML (–176): Confidence: 3/5
• Total Points: Under 166 (–110): Confidence: 3/5
• Player Prop: Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points (–110):  Confidence: 4/5
• Alt Bet (Sprinkle): Alyssa Thomas Double-Double: Confidence: 3/5

We’re with the Mercury in this one; they have the rebounding advantage, more late-game options, and fewer lineup gaps. They’re in a much better position to close this one out in regulation!

2025 World Series Longshots: Best Value Teams Nobody’s Betting On

Time flies just like one of Aaron Judge’s homers. Yes, that was corny. But that doesn’t make it any less true, and that means the World Series will be here before we know it! 

We don’t know who will end up at the biggest game in baseball, but we never count out the longshots. Who doesn’t love the underdog? And when you bet on one and they pull it off? Cha-Ching! 

The truth is that a majority of casual bettors only focus on the fav teams, like, say, the Yankees or the Red Sox, but that isn’t always the smartest strategy. Why? Because the real opportunity sometimes lies with those underrated underdogs.

And that’s why we are gonna go over the top undervalued longshots to win the 2025 World Series! We’ll do so based on the latest odds, team trajectory, and good betting strategies.

Before we get into it, know this: betting on longshots is high-risk. These are not sure things, as there is no such thing in sports. But a small, calculated wager on a dark-horse team? That’s a fun part of the betting. If you manage your bankroll and expectations, longshot futures bets can kick up your season a notch with big upside potential, but don’t forget that they’re called “longshots” for a reason!)

Here are the 2025 World Series Longshots: the best value teams that nobody is betting on (yet).

What Makes a Team a ‘Longshot?’

Why is something considered a “longshot?” Well, in this case, it’s a baseball team with a low implied probability of winning, and it’s reflected by odds of roughly +3000 (30-to-1) or longer.

The market gives these teams around a 3% (or less) chance of winning it all. They are the clubs that no one expects to become the champs, and it’s because of recent performance, market size, or roster questions. Sportsbooks and the betting public will overlook them, and this means the payoff would be huge if they end up defying the odds.

The factors that can cause a team to be labeled a longshot? An absence of superstar names, a small-market fan base (and thus less betting action), or a mediocre record in the previous season. Public perception and preseason predictions heavily influence futures odds; teams with known players or a winning history get way more respect on the odds board, and up-and-comers or historically unsuccessful franchises have odds that don’t show their real potential.

What are the traits that potential “sleeper” teams have in common? The following things: 

• A Youthful Core with Upside: Longshots usually have younger talent who are on the brink of breaking out. A roster full of emerging stars, like rookie phenoms or recent call-ups, can gel late in the season and overperform expectations.
• An Emerging Ace or Resurgent Bullpen: Maybe the team has a pitcher who is developing into an ace or a bullpen that’s locking teams down.  Strong pitching can carry an underrated team much further than anyone is expecting them to go.
• Deadline Trade Potential: A “sleeper” team might be just one big move away from contention. If the front office has resources or prospects to trade, a midseason acquisition (like adding a power hitter or a No. 2 starter) could alter their outlook overnight.
• Over-performing on a Budget: Usually, longshots are low-payroll or mid-market teams that find ways to win in spite of a lower budget. It could be via great defense, fantastic coaching, or team chemistry; they could be winning games without attracting any media hype.
• Undervalued by Public Perception: Sometimes, a team is a longshot just because the public hasn’t caught on to their improvements. They will be flying under the radar because of a long playoff drought or a lack of marquee names, but their on-field performance is fire
  

A longshot is any team that the market isn’t giving much of a chance, but that doesn’t mean we should count them out. It’s the overlooked clubs that can offer value to bettors who want a little extra risk.

Why Betting Longshots Is a Smart Strategic Play

The thing about futures betting is to find the discrepancies between implied probability and actual upside. 

Every set of odds contains an implied probability of winning. +3000 odds imply about a 3% chance to win the World Series. If you think a team’s actual chances are higher than that (like  5% or more), then that futures bet has value. Longshots are usually where these discrepancies exist; public bias and conservative forecasts can underrate a team’s ceiling. When you bet on a few carefully chosen longshots, you’re saying, “I think these teams have a better shot than a lot of people realize.”

Of course, you should NOT load up your whole bankroll on a 50-to-1 praying for a miracle candidate. The smart play? Balance your portfolio with one or two small bets on high-upside longshots to complement any wagers on the favorites. The beauty of this is that you only need to hit on one longshot out of many to come out ahead. If one 40-1 underdog wins it all, it can cover losses on all the others and then some. It’s this asymmetric payoff that makes longshot betting so attractive; a little can go a really long way!

Historical Longshot Examples

Baseball history has proven that longshots do sometimes win championships. The last six years have given us some great examples of why it’s wise not to just blank the underdogs!

The above examples highlight an important point: the  MLB season is long and unpredictable. Wild-card teams can get hot at the right time, injuries can shuffle the hierarchy, and unsung players can transform into postseason heroes. If you had a feeling about those underdogs and put down a small wager, you would have been handsomely rewarded.

Best Practices

What’s the best way to bet on longshots? Below are the best practices if you take this wager route!

Bet Early But Keep Monitoring

Longshot odds can change dramatically as the season progresses. If you spot an undervalued team early and bet them at, say, +4500, you can gain a huge edge if they surge (because that same team might be +1500 a few weeks later).

• We saw this happen in 2025: the Detroit Tigers opened at +4000 but were bet down to +850 by mid-summer after jumping to a first-place tie. 
• The Milwaukee Brewers were around +3500 in spring and, after a big winning streak, were shortened to +1600.

Early action usually nets the best value, so watch the odds board all season long! If a team hits a slump or has injuries, their odds could drift longer again, and that can create another chance to buy low.

Use Logic, Not Love

Huge odds are always tempting, but make sure you have a rationale that goes deeper than “That would be nice.” Look at a team’s run differential, underlying stats, or second-half schedule. Is there evidence that they could turn things around or sustain their success? Longshot betting should still be grounded in analysis; you’re looking for undervalued teams, not just any team with a pulse. Don’t throw money at hopeless cases; focus on those that have a plausible path to contention.

Manage Risk & Bankroll

By their very nature, longshot bets are less likely to cash, so always treat them as a high-risk portion of your betting portfolio. Keep the wager sizes modest (relative to your standard unit). The goal is that if the bet loses (as most longshots will), it’s a tiny hit to your bankroll. But if it wins? You get an outsized boost. This way, you enjoy the upside without jeopardizing your bankroll stability.

Don’t Be Scared to Hedge

If your longshot does end up making a deep run, you’ll have options to secure profit. If your 40-1 pick reaches the World Series or League Championship Series, you could hedge by betting on the other team or via cash-out features, and that will lock in some winnings regardless of the final outcome. Hedging strategy is a whole topic in and of itself, but it’s good to plan ahead for how you might capitalize on a longshot that goes the distance.

Best 2025 World Series Longshot Picks (as of late July)

It’s only July, so we are concentrating on the five baseball teams with longer odds but have strong value relative to their World Series chances. These are by no means predictions that each will win! They’re worth a speculative wager because the payoff significantly outweighs the risk in our estimation. A common approach is to risk 0.25 to 0.5 units (a quarter or half of your usual bet size) on these types of futures. That way, if even one hits? You’ll make a profit.

Summary Table

The Brewers’ odds moved fast! They went from around +4500 in early July to about +1500–1600 by late July as they surged to the league’s best record!

How to Bet World Series Futures: Final Strategy Tips

Follow these tips if you’re gonna bet on World Series futures!

• Split your bets: Pair a high-payout team or two with a shorter-odds contender.
• Compare odds: Lines jump between sportsbooks, so shop around so you can lock in the best number.
• Stay plugged in: Trades, injuries, and call-ups can and do change the market quickly.
• Log your tickets: Track stakes, payouts, and teams so you know exactly where you stand.

Recommended Longshot Bets for Late July

What do we recommend in terms of longshots? Here’s what we are backing:

• Top Pick | Mariners (+2200‑2500): They have a balanced lineup, their rotation is getting better, and they are still priced like a mid-tier club!
• Top Contrarian | Red Sox (+2900‑3500): The young hitters are stepping up to the plate, pitching upgrades are likely to happen, and sportsbooks haven’t adjusted.
• Solid Value | Cubs (+1400): Chicago has a really strong combo of power and speed, a solid defense, and a lot of room to improve at the deadline.

FAQs About MLB Futures Betting

Okay, it’s the end of July, and even though October is months away, it’ll be here before we know it! Still, it is far enough off that you probably have some questions about how it all works, so here are the FAQs that we get from readers about it.

And if you’re new to betting on futures, our sports betting guide can help you understand the basics before diving into World Series odds.

The Best Futures Can Come with Doubt

As with every sport, the big-name teams hog all of the attention. But that doesn’t mean they’re the only ones worth betting on! The market isn’t always right, and that leaves a window for undervalued clubs to crash the October party. A few under-the-radar teams are still flying beneath pricing corrections, and if and when they make their move? Sportsbooks won’t even hesitate to slash their numbers.

If you see a team that checks enough of the right boxes and the odds haven’t caught up, now’s the time to take your shot. Remember to keep your wagers modest, spread them around, and keep track of where you’re exposed. Futures bets call for patience, but if one of them hits? You better believe it’s worth the wait!