Sports Betting Is Wrecking America’s Credit Scores — The Fed Just Proved It

For years, the gambling industry has maintained that legalizing sports betting brings sports wagering out of the shadows, protects consumers, and provides a massive new tax revenue stream for states. While the tax revenue part is undeniably true, a landmark new study from the New York Federal Reserve is blowing a massive hole in the “consumer protection” argument.

According to the report released in late March 2026, the rapid expansion of legal mobile sports betting is directly linked to plummeting credit health across the United States.

The data paints a grim picture: in the 30-plus states that have legalized mobile wagering since 2018, credit delinquencies have spiked, bankruptcy rates have jumped, and the average credit score has dropped. The financial carnage is most severe among young men, the exact demographic most heavily targeted by sportsbook advertising.

This is not an anti-gambling advocacy group making these claims. This is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using massive datasets of consumer credit reports to track exactly what happens to a state’s financial health the moment the sportsbooks go live.

The 10 Percent Spike in Delinquencies

The NY Fed researchers analyzed credit report data before and after legalization in various states. What they found was a clear, measurable “deterioration in repayment performance” that tracked perfectly with the arrival of legal sports betting apps.

Overall, credit delinquency rates—meaning payments on credit cards or auto loans that are 90 days or more past due—rose by 0.3 percent in states where betting was legalized.

While 0.3 percent might sound small, it represents a massive number of individuals falling behind on their bills across a state’s entire population. But the real story is found when you zoom in on the actual bettors.

According to the study, among the estimated 3 percent of the population who actually took up sports betting, credit delinquencies spiked by a staggering 10 percent.

“Following the legalization of sports betting in a state, credit delinquencies increase, driven by those under 40 years old,” the report stated bluntly. The researchers also noted “spillover effects” into neighboring states where betting is not yet legal, as residents simply drive across the border to place their wagers.

The Gen Z and Millennial Debt Crisis

The financial damage is not distributed equally. The NY Fed study, along with a separate but equally damning 2026 paper from researchers at UCLA Anderson, Harvard, and USC Marshall, highlights that younger Americans are bearing the brunt of the crisis.

The UCLA/Harvard study found that the odds of a bankruptcy filing in states with legal online betting increased by 25 to 30 percent. A separate analysis by Fortune noted that credit delinquencies surged by an incredible 26 percent specifically for bettors under the age of 40.

This demographic reality aligns perfectly with the marketing strategies of the major operators. Sportsbooks have spent billions of dollars on advertising featuring celebrities, athletes, and influencers specifically designed to appeal to Gen Z and millennial men. The gamification of the apps—with constant push notifications, live in-game betting, and “risk-free” promotional offers—is built to drive engagement from a generation raised on smartphones.

Christopher Welsh, an addiction psychiatrist at the University of Maryland, told NPR that the landscape has fundamentally shifted. “It’s almost all online sports betting now,” Welsh said. He noted that he is increasingly hearing from parents who receive calls from bookies or collection agencies because their high school or college-aged children owe tens of thousands of dollars.

A “K-Shaped” Credit Economy

The NY Fed findings arrive at a time when the broader American credit landscape is already showing signs of strain. The national average FICO score has dipped to 714, down two points over the last year.

However, credit experts point out that we are experiencing a “K-shaped” credit economy. Ethan Dornhelm, head of scores analytics at FICO, recently noted that there is a record share of consumers demonstrating strong credit behaviors, pushing their scores higher. At the same time, consumers at the bottom of the K are seeing their financial health deteriorate rapidly.

Sports betting appears to be a significant downward force on that lower arm of the K. Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, explained the dynamic to CNBC: “Most Americans have precious little margin for error when it comes to their finances, and while sports gambling can help in that area when you win, the truth is that it is far more likely to end up hurting more than it helps in the long run.”

This creates a dangerous cycle. A young bettor living paycheck to paycheck hits a bad streak, maxes out a credit card to chase their losses, and suddenly finds themselves 90 days delinquent. Their credit score tanks, making it harder to secure an auto loan, rent an apartment, or even pass a background check for a job.

The $167 Billion Question

The scale of the industry makes these individual financial tragedies a macroeconomic issue. In 2018, before the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports betting (PASPA), Americans legally wagered roughly $7 billion on sports, almost entirely in Nevada.

By 2025, that number had exploded to $167 billion—a nearly 24-fold increase in just seven years. The American Gaming Association projected that $3.3 billion was wagered legally on the 2026 March Madness tournaments alone, a 54 percent jump over the past three years.

With over half a trillion dollars wagered since 2018, the profits for the operators are massive. But those profits are heavily concentrated. A 2024 Wall Street Journal investigation found that 70 percent of the profits from one major online gambling company came from less than 1 percent of its users.

The industry relies on a small percentage of high-volume bettors to generate the vast majority of its revenue. The NY Fed data strongly suggests that a significant portion of that revenue is being funded by credit card debt and missed loan payments.

What Happens Next?

The gambling industry has historically relied on the argument that adults should be free to spend their entertainment budget however they choose. Ted Rossman, a senior industry analyst at Bankrate, summarized this view: “It’s okay to spend money on the occasional indulgence… you just need to budget for it.”

But the NY Fed study challenges the idea that sports betting is just harmless entertainment. When a single industry causes a measurable, state-wide drop in credit scores and a 30 percent increase in bankruptcies, it stops being a personal budgeting issue and becomes a public policy crisis.

As the data continues to mount, pressure will inevitably build on state regulators and federal lawmakers to intervene. We are already seeing pushback, from proposed bans on college prop bets to discussions of federal excise taxes on gambling revenue.

The “Wild West” era of mobile sports betting expansion is likely coming to a close. The NY Fed has provided the receipts, and the bill is coming due.

If you are looking to better understand how sportsbooks operate and how to manage your bankroll responsibly, you can read our guide on best sports betting apps.

If you or someone you know is struggling with sports betting debt or gambling addiction, please visit our responsible gambling resources for immediate help and support.

Polymarket Pulled a Bet on Nuclear War — Here’s What That Says About Prediction Markets

Prediction markets have built their reputation on a simple, ruthless premise: if something can happen, you should be able to bet on it. The entire value proposition rests on the idea that crowds with money on the line produce better forecasts than pundits, polls, or government agencies. But in early 2026, the industry found a line it was not willing to cross.

Following the escalation of military conflict in the Middle East, Polymarket — the world’s largest crypto prediction market — quietly removed its markets allowing users to bet on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by the end of the year. The decision came after massive public backlash and highlights a growing existential crisis for the industry: where is the ethical boundary for betting on real-world events?

As these platforms fight for mainstream legitimacy and U.S. regulatory approval, the nuclear war controversy proves that the “Wild West” era of prediction markets is coming to a forced end.

The Market That Went Too Far

The controversy began when users noticed several active markets on Polymarket with titles like “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” which allowed traders to buy “Yes” or “No” shares on the likelihood of a nuclear strike by specific dates throughout 2026.

These markets had existed for months in relative obscurity, attracting modest trading volume from the niche community of prediction market enthusiasts who treat geopolitical risk like any other tradeable asset. That changed dramatically on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Overnight, the nuclear detonation markets went from academic curiosities to front-page news.

Trading volume surged as speculators rushed to price in the possibility of Iranian retaliation. At one point, Polymarket’s own social media accounts posted odds showing a roughly 22% probability of a nuclear detonation by year-end. The post went viral, sparking immediate and intense outrage across social media and mainstream news outlets.

The backlash was swift and bipartisan. Critics argued that creating financial incentives around global annihilation was not just distasteful but deeply cynical. Some pointed out that a market predicting nuclear war could theoretically incentivize bad actors to make the prediction come true — a moral hazard that no amount of market efficiency can justify.

By March 3, Polymarket had archived and removed all nuclear detonation markets from its platform without issuing a formal public statement. The markets simply disappeared, as if they had never existed.

Their primary competitor, Kalshi, faced separate but related scrutiny over a market regarding whether Iran’s Supreme Leader would be ousted. Kalshi ultimately issued refunds for that market, citing internal rules that bar wagers directly tied to death or assassination. The distinction between predicting a political outcome and profiting from someone’s death proved too thin for even the most libertarian-minded platform to defend.

The Scale of the Money Involved

The nuclear detonation markets were not trivial side bets. The broader ecosystem of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi had attracted enormous capital to Middle East conflict wagers. A single multi-outcome prediction market on the timing of the strikes accumulated over $500 million in bets on Polymarket alone.

To put that in perspective, $500 million wagered on a single geopolitical event exceeds the total handle of many state-regulated sportsbooks during an entire NFL season. These are not small-stakes hobbyists making $10 bets for fun. These are sophisticated traders, crypto whales, and — as subsequent investigations would reveal — potentially people with access to nonpublic information.

The sheer volume of money flowing into these markets is what transformed them from an interesting experiment in crowdsourced forecasting into a political and ethical lightning rod. When millions of dollars are riding on whether a country gets bombed, the line between “prediction” and “profiteering” becomes uncomfortably thin.

The “More Money, More Problems” Defense

Prediction market executives have historically defended controversial markets by arguing that they provide a valuable public service: unbiased, crowdsourced forecasting that cuts through the noise of partisan media and government spin.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference shortly after the backlash, acknowledged that the nuclear markets were a “complicated question.” However, he maintained that prediction markets remain “innovative and disruptive” tools for discovering the truth. Coplan summarized the growing scrutiny with a dismissive shrug: “More money, more problems.”

The defense has a certain internal logic. If prediction markets accurately forecast election outcomes better than polls — which Polymarket demonstrably did during the 2024 U.S. presidential race — then perhaps they also provide valuable signal about geopolitical risk. A 22% probability of nuclear detonation is, in theory, useful information for policymakers, journalists, and the public.

But for regulators and the general public, the problem is not the information. It is the underlying morality of the contracts being traded. There is a fundamental difference between predicting an election outcome and creating a financial instrument that pays out when a nuclear weapon kills people. The former is a forecasting tool. The latter feels like something much darker.

The Insider Trading Threat

Beyond the ethical concerns of betting on war, the nuclear market controversy has exposed a critical vulnerability in the prediction market model: the threat of insider trading.

Crypto-analytics firm Bubblemaps recently identified six suspected insider accounts that made a combined $1.2 million wagering that the U.S. would strike Iran, placing the bets shortly before the military action occurred. The timing of these trades was suspicious enough to attract the attention of both journalists and federal investigators.

According to CNBC’s investigation into prediction market war bets, another single account — operating under the username “Magamyman” — made over $500,000 betting on the death of the Iranian Supreme Leader. The New York Times separately reported that hundreds of bets of at least $1,000 predicting an imminent American strike were placed in the hours before the operation began.

In traditional financial markets, trading on nonpublic material information is a federal crime prosecuted aggressively by the SEC and DOJ. But because Polymarket operates offshore and deals in event contracts rather than securities, the legal framework is murky at best. The Department of Justice has already begun investigating the prediction market industry, signaling that federal prosecutors are no longer willing to let these platforms police themselves.

The insider trading problem is not just a legal issue. It is an existential threat to the entire prediction market thesis. If markets are being manipulated by people with advance knowledge of military operations, then the prices are not reflecting genuine crowd wisdom. They are reflecting information asymmetry — which is the opposite of what these platforms claim to offer.

Lawmakers Push for Sweeping Bans

The nuclear bet controversy has provided fresh ammunition for lawmakers who have long viewed prediction markets with suspicion.

In Washington, Democratic lawmakers have introduced legislation specifically targeting these types of wagers. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Representative Mike Levin of California proposed a bill that would strictly prohibit prediction markets from offering contracts that resolve on military actions, regime change, or deaths. The bill would apply to both domestic and offshore platforms serving U.S. users.

Separately, Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, which seeks to bar the president, vice president, members of Congress, and their families from trading event contracts entirely. One lawmaker bluntly characterized the trading on military outcomes as “worse than insider trading.”

The urgency from lawmakers is driven by both the ethical concerns and the scale of the money involved. When half a billion dollars is wagered on a single military operation, the potential for corruption and manipulation becomes a national security concern, not just a financial regulation question.

Neither bill has attracted Republican co-sponsors, reflecting the partisan divide on prediction market regulation. Many conservatives view these platforms as free-market innovations that should be left alone, while progressives see them as unregulated gambling operations that exploit human suffering for profit. The regulatory fear surrounding prediction markets is not new, but the nuclear war controversy has given it a concrete, visceral focal point.

The Path to Mainstream Acceptance

For prediction markets to survive and thrive in the United States, they must transition from offshore crypto experiments to regulated financial entities. The nuclear war debacle has made that transition both more urgent and more difficult.

Kalshi has already taken this route, operating under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and maintaining stricter compliance standards than its offshore competitors. Kalshi’s decision to issue refunds on the Khamenei market — while painful financially — was a calculated move to demonstrate that a regulated prediction market can exercise ethical judgment without destroying its core product.

Polymarket, while currently restricting U.S. users from its main platform, is reportedly planning a CFTC-regulated U.S. version. But gaining that regulatory approval will require the platform to prove it can enforce ethical boundaries, prevent insider trading, and implement the kind of compliance infrastructure that its crypto-native user base has historically resisted.

The industry also faces a more fundamental question: can you build a profitable prediction market business while excluding the most controversial — and therefore most heavily traded — contracts? The nuclear war markets attracted enormous volume precisely because they were shocking and high-stakes. If regulators force platforms to exclude contracts on war, death, and catastrophe, will enough trading volume remain to sustain the business model?

What This Means for Bettors

If you currently use prediction markets, the nuclear war controversy should prompt some serious reflection about the platforms you are trusting with your money.

Offshore platforms like Polymarket operate outside the reach of U.S. consumer protection laws. If the platform makes a unilateral decision to archive a market — as it did with the nuclear detonation contracts — you may have limited recourse to recover your position. The lack of regulatory oversight means that disputes are resolved by the platform, not by an independent authority.

For bettors who want to participate in prediction markets with some degree of consumer protection, CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi offer a safer alternative. The tradeoff is a narrower selection of markets and stricter compliance requirements, but the benefit is operating within a legal framework that provides actual recourse if something goes wrong.

The question is no longer whether prediction markets work — they clearly do. The question is what kind of world we are willing to let people bet on. And as the industry learned in early 2026, even the most permissive platforms have limits they did not know they had until the world forced them to find out.

FAQ

Sports Betting Is Making Young Men Drink More — And the Data Is Alarming

The legalization of online sports betting was sold to the public as a harmless way to bring a black market into the light and generate tax revenue. But as the industry has exploded across 31 states and Washington D.C., public health researchers are uncovering a darker reality that nobody in the industry wants to talk about.

A new study published in *Health Economics*, as reported by Scientific American, reveals a troubling connection between the rise of mobile sportsbooks and an increase in substance abuse. According to the research, the legalization of online sports betting has led to a 10% increase in binge drinking among young men who already engage in heavy alcohol consumption. That figure represents thousands of additional episodes of dangerous drinking behavior directly correlated with the arrival of legal sports wagering.

As the industry generated a staggering $41 billion in wagers in just the first quarter of 2025, the spillover effects of having a casino in your pocket are becoming impossible to ignore.

The Study: What the Numbers Actually Show

The study, led by University of Cincinnati economist Keshar Ghimire, focused on what researchers call the “intensive margin” of drinking behavior. This distinction is important. The general population did not suddenly start drinking more after sports betting became legal. Instead, men aged 35 and under who already had a history of binge drinking — defined as consuming five or more drinks in a single sitting — saw their consumption spike by approximately 10%.

This is a critical finding because it reveals that legalized sports betting is not creating new drinkers. It is making existing problem drinkers worse. The mechanism, according to Ghimire, is environmental. “Online sports betting differs from traditional gambling because it is immediate, continuous, and easily accessible through smartphones,” he explained. “That accessibility may make it easier for gambling to occur in settings where alcohol consumption is already common, such as watching live sports.”

A 2024 survey found that one in four men aged 30 or younger gamble on sports online. When you overlay that demographic with the population of young men who already binge drink, the intersection is enormous. These are not two separate groups of people. They are overwhelmingly the same people, engaging in both behaviors simultaneously.

The study relied on self-reported data, which means the actual increase in consumption could be even higher. People tend to underreport both their drinking and their gambling habits, particularly when those habits are becoming problematic.

The Perfect Storm: Smartphones, Sports, and Alcohol

Unlike traditional casino gambling, which requires travel, planning, and a degree of intentionality, online sports betting is immediate and continuous. A bettor can place a wager from the couch, at the office, during a commute, or — crucially — while sitting at a bar watching a game. The accessibility of mobile betting means that gambling now frequently occurs in environments where alcohol consumption is already encouraged and normalized.

This creates what addiction researchers describe as a “compounding risk loop.” The bettor drinks while watching a game. The alcohol lowers inhibition. The lowered inhibition leads to riskier bets. The riskier bets create emotional volatility — the highs of a win, the lows of a loss. That emotional volatility drives more drinking to cope. The cycle feeds itself.

The physical setting matters more than most people realize. A 2025 study published in *ScienceDirect* found that alcohol use frequency is directly related to elevated sports betting behaviors. The two activities are not just correlated — they actively reinforce each other. When someone is already three drinks deep and their team is losing, the impulse to chase a loss with a bigger bet becomes significantly harder to resist.

Recovery Answers, a research initiative from Massachusetts General Hospital, published findings in May 2025 confirming strong within-person associations between sports gambling and heavy drinking. The relationship is not just statistical. It is behavioral. The same person drinks more on days they gamble more, and gambles more on days they drink more.

How Advertising Fuels the Fire

The sports betting industry has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on aggressive marketing campaigns designed to acquire new customers. These advertisements are ubiquitous during live sports broadcasts, on social media platforms, embedded in podcasts, and even integrated directly into sports commentary itself.

For young men, the constant bombardment of betting promotions can create a feeling of suffocation. As one 26-year-old recovering gambling addict told NPR in a February 2026 report, “Their whole goal is to flood you with it so that you feel kind of suffocated and you’re constantly thinking about it.”

That same young man, identified only as Jason, described making up to 50 wagers per day at the peak of his addiction. He described feeling “trapped in my phone,” unable to stop checking odds and placing bets even when he knew he was losing money he could not afford to lose.

Lia Nower, director of the Center for Gambling Studies at Rutgers University, drew a stark comparison in the same NPR report: “Gambling is where cigarettes were in the ’40s when we had the Marlboro Man and every actress with a cigarette on one of those extenders.”

The comparison is not hyperbolic. The tobacco industry spent decades marketing an addictive product as glamorous and harmless before regulators intervened. The sports betting industry is following the same playbook — sign-up bonuses, “risk-free” bet promotions, celebrity endorsements, and partnerships with the leagues themselves. When this constant engagement with sports betting apps is paired with alcohol, impulse control drops, leading to riskier wagers and heavier drinking.

The Mental Health Toll of Mobile Betting

The financial consequences of gambling addiction are well-documented, but the mental health impacts are just as severe. A 2026 study published in *JAMA Health Forum* found that problem gambling is strongly associated with elevated levels of depression, mood disorders, and anxiety. These are not minor correlations. They are clinically significant relationships that addiction specialists see playing out in their offices every day.

In Massachusetts, which legalized sports betting in 2023, the number of residents in their 20s and 30s referred to gambling treatment programs has more than doubled. Nearly 400 young adults sought help through the state’s gambling hotline in the 2024 fiscal year alone. A Gamblers Anonymous meeting leader in the state reported gaining 17 new members in just five months, with two-thirds of them in their 20s and 30s.

Kyle Faust, who directs the Digital Addiction and Gambling Treatment Program at Massachusetts General Hospital, noted that the vast majority of his patients struggling with gambling addiction are tied specifically to online sports betting — not casino games, not poker, not horse racing.

“Somebody is going to be more susceptible to depression, different types of anxiety disorders,” Faust explained. “And if somebody is significantly in debt, they are going to feel trapped and helpless and feel like there’s no way out.”

One of his patients, a 33-year-old identified as Adam, gambled away his entire savings on a single Bruins game. Stories like his are becoming disturbingly common as online gambling proves more addictive than its in-person counterpart.

The National Council on Problem Gambling reported in March 2026 that 33% of adults aged 21 to 44 placed their first sports bet before they were legally old enough to do so. The pipeline from underage exposure to adult addiction is shorter than anyone in the industry wants to admit.

The Underage Exposure Problem

The NCPG statistic about underage betting deserves its own examination. One-third of young adult sports bettors started before they turned 21. This is not a minor data point. It suggests that the marketing saturation of sports betting is reaching minors at scale, normalizing the behavior years before they can legally participate.

Sports betting advertisements do not exist in a vacuum. They appear during NFL games that teenagers watch with their parents. They appear on social media feeds that no age-verification system can meaningfully filter. They appear in the podcasts and YouTube channels that young men consume for hours every week.

By the time these young men turn 21 and can legally place a bet, many of them have already internalized the idea that betting on sports is a normal, expected part of being a fan. The transition from watching a game to wagering on it feels seamless — because the industry has spent years making it feel that way.

What Can Be Done to Protect Young Bettors?

As the data mounts, pressure is building on lawmakers and regulators to implement stricter controls on the sports betting industry.

Some proposed solutions include banning sports betting advertisements during televised games, similar to restrictions placed on tobacco advertising decades ago. Others advocate for mandatory affordability checks, stricter limits on deposit amounts, and more robust funding for addiction treatment programs. Several states are already exploring legislation that would require sportsbooks to fund responsible gambling programs proportional to their revenue.

Sportsbook operators point to their existing responsible gambling tools, such as self-imposed deposit limits and self-exclusion programs. However, critics argue that these tools place the burden entirely on the user, while the apps themselves are meticulously designed to maximize engagement and time-on-device. The same behavioral psychology that makes these apps addictive is the same psychology that makes voluntary self-regulation ineffective for the people who need it most.

Australia offers a potential model. The country recently implemented sweeping bans on gambling advertisements during live sports broadcasts, a move that was fiercely opposed by the industry but supported by an overwhelming majority of the public. Whether the United States will follow a similar path remains to be seen, but the political momentum is building.

Until more comprehensive regulations are put in place, the responsibility falls largely on individuals to recognize the risks. Understanding the strong correlation between sports betting and increased alcohol consumption is a crucial first step in recognizing when a harmless hobby might be turning into a destructive habit. If you find yourself betting more when you drink, or drinking more when you bet, that pattern is not a coincidence. It is a warning sign.

FAQ

Spain Launches Unprecedented 4-Year Study to Track the Gambler’s Brain

The Spanish government is embarking on one of the most ambitious gambling research projects in history. Under the new Safe Gambling Program 2026–2030, Spain’s Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling (DGOJ) is preparing a massive, four-year behavioral study that aims to track up to 10,000 participants. The goal is not just to collect survey data, but to observe real-time decision-making and neurological responses while people gamble.

This initiative represents a significant shift in how regulators approach player protection. By treating gambling behavior as a subject for rigorous scientific observation, Spain hopes to build an evidence-based framework that addresses the root causes of problem gambling rather than just its symptoms.

What Is the Safe Gambling Program?

The Safe Gambling Program 2026–2030 replaces Spain’s former “Responsible Gambling” initiative, marking a deliberate pivot toward a more comprehensive, consumer-centric model. As reported by iGaming Business, DGOJ Director General Mikel Arana unveiled, the program is built on three main pillars: analysis and diagnosis, prevention and promotion of safe gaming, and participant protection.

At the heart of this strategy is a €1 million research grant scheme designed to fund studies that will directly inform future policies. The crown jewel of this effort is the planned 10,000-person behavioral study, which will utilize methods from psychology and neuroscience to understand how gambling habits form and evolve over time.

Why This Study Matters

Most existing research on gambling addiction relies on self-reported data or short-term laboratory experiments. Spain’s study is unique because of its scale and duration. Tracking 10,000 individuals over four years will provide an unprecedented longitudinal view of gambling behavior.

Researchers plan to observe participants in real-world or highly simulated environments, potentially providing them with a structured monthly allowance to gamble with. This setup allows scientists to monitor emotional shifts, risk tolerance, and decision-making processes as they happen.

Understanding how casinos use psychology is crucial, but this study will provide hard data on how the brain reacts to specific stimuli, such as the slot machine near-miss effect.

The Role of Social Media and Technology

A major focus of the DGOJ’s research will be the intersection of gambling and modern technology. Regulators are particularly concerned about the influence of social media marketing on younger demographics, specifically those aged 18 to 25.

The study will also investigate the structural features of modern games that may contribute to addictive behaviors. This includes analyzing the impact of artificial intelligence in personalizing gaming experiences, a topic we’ve explored in our coverage of how AI predicts your next bet.

Furthermore, the DGOJ aims to develop a standardized mechanism for detecting risky online gambling behavior early on, potentially leading to automated interventions before a player develops a severe problem.

Evaluating Past Regulations

Spain has been at the forefront of stringent gambling regulations in Europe. The new Safe Gambling Program will also serve as a mechanism to evaluate the effectiveness of past measures, such as Royal Decree 958/2020 and Royal Decree 176/2023.

According to Spain’s DGOJ regulatory framework, these decrees imposed strict controls on advertising, established session and payment limits, and mandated account suspension protocols. More recently, Spain required online gambling platforms to display prominent addiction warnings, akin to those found on tobacco products. The upcoming research will help determine if these measures actually reduce harm or if players simply find ways around them.

For those interested in how these regulatory shifts compare to the U.S. market, you can review the current online gambling laws stateside.

What to Watch For

As the study progresses, the findings could have global implications. If Spain successfully identifies specific game mechanics or marketing tactics that reliably trigger addictive responses, other regulatory bodies across Europe and North America are likely to follow suit with targeted bans or restrictions.

The gaming industry will be watching closely. Operators may need to fundamentally alter how they design games and market their platforms if the data proves that current practices are inherently harmful.

FAQs About Spain’s Safe Gambling Program

Here are some common questions regarding Spain’s new initiative and what it means for the future of gambling regulation.

How Starting Pitchers Move MLB Betting Lines

Ever wonder why an MLB game you’re looking to bet on suddenly jumped in pricing? A number of factors can contribute to changing MLB odds, but perhaps the biggest reason for line movement is who is on the mound.

That’s right, the starting pitcher can change everything. Whether it’s a starter being pulled, or a probable pitcher status going from “TBD” to an official name, the guy hurling the ball controls how we view MLB games, as well as how they’re priced.

Whoever toes the rubber sets up the entire matchup, and depending on how good they are, they can play a hand in the opposing team’s strategy – as well as all of the pricing for a given game.

The best part? Once you begin to understand how MLB betting sites price them you can consistently get ahead of line movement instead of merely reacting to it.

Why Starting Pitchers Are the #1 Driver of MLB Odds

Baseball is pretty unique compared to most other sports, as one guy can completely swing the outcome of a team game. You still get this in some regard with important positions in sports like hockey or football, while individual sports (tennis and golf) obviously can be impacted.

But as far as team sports go, nobody can dictate pricing or impact the outcome quite like a starting pitcher.

Just look at what MLB pitchers dictate:

• Every pitch
• Every at-bat outcome
• The pace and flow of the game
• How long the bullpen stays out of the game
• Batters being utilized in lineups

Naturally, that level of control and impact means online sportsbooks are forced to predicate their pricing on who the starting pitcher is.

Ever wonder why DraftKings and other big betting sites list the probable starting pitcher with the team odds? That’s why!

A dominant ace is typically a very good bet to stay in front of even the best of offense, while a middling arm could get chewed up and spit out in less than one full inning.

Suffice to say, if you’re not on top of your game in terms of knowing the ins and outs of every top arm in baseball, you’re doing yourself a great disservice.

How Sportsbooks Set MLB Lines Using Starting Pitchers

Let’s be clear: the starting MLB pitcher only plays a part in how odds are set. But it’s a substantial decision-maker for sportsbooks, seeing as that one guy has a hand in so much that can go right – or wrong.

Before you can prepare for pricing based on this idea, it’s helpful to understand how and why the books get to their decision.

The Opening Line Begins with the Pricing Matchup

The oddsmakers start things off with a baseline projection that considers both starting pitchers, the projected innings for both arms, and the expected runs allowed for each side.

Everything else comes after that is established. There is a lot more to be included and considered, but the basic framework starts the same for every matchup.

Advanced Metrics Matter More Than You Think

The top sportsbooks in the world don’t rely on surface data to maintain their edge. Sharp bettors don’t, either. If you’re still just looking at game logs or ranking pitchers on wins and losses, for instance, you may want to rethink your strategy.

Moreover, it’s important to dig deeper and find data that really explains why a pitcher is performing above or below expectations. And then there’s data going into each specific matchup, whether it be tied just to the pitcher or the opposition.

Here’s the stuff online bookmakers look at (that you should be analyzing, too):

Surely there are even more advanced baseball betting metrics to dive into, but the point isn’t to give you a laundry list of research areas. It’s to show you that sportsbooks aren’t judging pitchers based on whether they have a good record or posted a good ERA.

Why? Because those stats are noisy and lack context.

The edge, whether it be for the bookmaker or you, lies in uncovering the true data that explains and even predicts pitcher performance.

How Much Can a Starting Pitcher Move MLB Lines?

Almost as important as establishing that MLB pitchers can dictate pricing – and that they are also responsible for having odds altered – is realizing just how much this matters.

The movement isn’t always massive, as certain situations should be handled differently. But you can approach it with this loose framework in mind:

The first two instances can see a -110 favorite move to -105 or -115, depending on what’s happening and who is involved. Bigger situations create more chaos, however, with lines flipping completely, turning a -110 favorite into a +110 dog.

There’s simply nothing else in baseball that can fluctuate the market like that, and in turn completely change the way the public wants to bet.

What Happens When a Starting Pitcher Changes?

Things tend to really get interesting when a starting pitcher is pulled or officially announced for the first time. For either situation, the actual approach by the sportsbooks tends to be similar, and there’s an edge you can tap into.

Here’s what happens when a pitcher is scratched:

• The book pulls the line instantly
• The matchup is reassessed
• A brand new price is posted

Ever wonder why “listed pitcher” bets are posted? Because this type of thing happens all the time. Injuries pop up, players get sick – the list goes on. But sometimes the guy we thought was going to start doesn’t, and we understandably want some protection from that burning us.

The good thing is we can react to that change and use it to our advantage, just the same. If you can target listed pitcher bets, definitely try to do that where and when you’re able. But if you can’t, you can simply hop on fresh lines if you already know the pitchers and matchup at hand.

How Pitchers Impact Each Betting Market

Who the starting pitcher is for a game doesn’t just impact the winner. It impacts the game total, the run line, and various prop bets.

Win probability is the thing this change tends to impact the most, but there are several bets you’ll want to jump on if you feel the change is advantageous.

• Moneyline – This is where starting pitchers matter the most. Their talent level, how deep they can go into the game, and how they fare in a given matchup can have major influence on the winner of a given contest.
• Run Line – Good pitchers can positively influence blowout risk and can play a hand in limiting runs late, assuming they can pitch deep into a game.
• Total – Good pitchers will typically limit opposing scoring and help lower the total. Bad pitchers will get targeted early and chased from the game, which can lead to even more runs if a team’s bullpen is weak.
• Props – When a good pitcher is on the mound, the opposing bats are poor bets to hit Overs, and vice versa. Pitcher data can mesh with splits, weather, and park factors to clue bettors into probability for home runs, strikeouts, and other MLB prop bets.

Real Examples of Pitcher-Driven Line Movement

Most of this should make sense, but sometimes it helps to have a clear example of a real-world situation. Want to know exactly what types of situations to be aware of and how you should react? Consider the following:

How Sharp Bettors Exploit Pitcher-Based Line Movement

Okay, now that we know how and why lines can move based on who is pitching, let’s look at some ways you – the bettor – can actually use this exact situation to your advantage.

It won’t always be the same type of pitcher, and circumstances can be different depending on so many factors, so here are a few things to keep in mind:

• Bet early before lines adjust – If you know the probable pitchers before the books can adjust, you can obtain soft numbers early.
• Fade mispriced pitchers – Eye pitchers with ERA that outperforms xERA, note unsustainable strand rates, and consider strikeout rates, barrel rates, WHIP, and more to discover pitchers (and teams) that aren’t properly priced.
• Attack first 5 innings bets – Isolate the starting pitcher alone to really maximize the data invested into your approach. Don’t let a bad bullpen or weak offense ruin your hard work.

Common Mistakes Bettors Make with Pitchers

Sometimes it’s not enough to know a lot about a specific strategy or to do all the research you can stomach. Often, it’s just knowing what to avoid doing.

Here’s a quick look at some key mistakes and traps when considering the impact of starting pitching:

You can apply some of this to all sports betting genres. Even the best of sports bettors can fall into traps like narratives (he’s due, I tell ya!), whole noisy stats like wins, ERA, and batter vs. pitcher history can be frustrating because they tell us something, but they don’t tell us everything.

The biggest problem with most of the above traps and mistakes is time and effort. If you actually make the time to research the players, the data, and the situations they’re finding themselves in, you will organically dig deeper than surface-level data.

If the numbers feel too easy or the solution seems too obvious, they probably are. Make sure you never rely on any singular metric to formulate a stance or bet, either. Combine all of the meaningful data you can to come to the best decision – and best bet – you can possibly make.

Remember, Pitchers Are the Market in MLB Betting

That’s a lot to digest, but it’s important to remember that realizing how big of an impact starting pitchers have on baseball odds is only the beginning.

From here, you’ll want to familiarize yourself with the hard-hitting data that actually matters. Then apply that to every single matchup you plan on betting on. And within that framework, you can start identifying truly advantageous bets that are actually worth targeting.

When it comes to sports betting, it can be more than just entertainment. You have to treat it as such first, however. That involves truly caring about the money you’re risking, what goes into the odds you’re wagering on, and where the best path is to an edge.

Starting pitchers don’t just influence MLB betting lines. They define them, and everything else tends to come after. The sooner bettors can see that and tap into the upside baked into the process, the more they can profit from those last-second changes.

The Near-Miss Is Not an Accident: How Slot Machines Are Engineered to Feel Like Almost-Wins

If you have ever played a slot machine, you know the feeling. The first reel lands on the jackpot symbol. The second reel lands on the jackpot symbol. Your heart rate spikes as the third reel spins, only for it to stop exactly one click past the final jackpot symbol. You didn’t win, but it felt like you were incredibly close.

That “so close” feeling is not a coincidence, and it is not a sign that the machine is about to pay out. It is a highly engineered psychological trigger known as the near-miss effect. Modern slot machines are deliberately programmed to show you these near-misses far more often than they would occur by pure chance.

The goal is simple: to make losing feel just enough like winning to keep you spinning. By understanding how the math and the psychology behind these machines work, you can recognize the manipulation and make smarter decisions about your bankroll.

What Is the Near-Miss Effect?

The near-miss effect is a psychological phenomenon where a failure that closely resembles a success triggers the same brain reward pathways as an actual win. When you experience a near-miss on a slot machine, your brain releases dopamine, creating a rush of excitement despite the fact that you just lost money.

A landmark 2009 study published in the journal Neuron by Dr. Luke Clark mapped exactly what happens in the brain during these events. The researchers found that near-misses recruited the striatum and insula—the exact same brain regions activated by actual monetary wins. The study also revealed that near-misses increased a player’s desire to continue gambling, even though the players consciously rated the near-misses as highly unpleasant.

For the casino, this is the holy grail of game design. They get to deliver the neurological reward of a jackpot without actually having to pay you a dime. According to behavioral research, optimal gambling persistence occurs when a machine delivers near-misses on roughly 30% of all spins.

How Casinos Engineer the Almost-Win

To understand how casinos manufacture these near-misses, you have to understand that modern slot machines do not operate like the mechanical games of the past. Today, the physical spinning reels (or the digital animations of them) are completely disconnected from the actual outcome of the game.

Every modern slot machine runs on a pseudo-random number generator (RNG). This software cycles through billions of numbers every second. The exact millisecond you press the spin button, the RNG locks in a number that determines whether you win or lose. The spinning reels you see are just a theatrical presentation of that already-decided outcome.

This separation between the math and the display allows game developers to use a technique called “virtual reel mapping.” On a physical or animated reel, there might be 22 visible stops. But in the machine’s programming, the virtual reel might have hundreds of stops. Developers map multiple virtual stops to the blank spaces immediately above or below the jackpot symbol.

This technique, sometimes referred to as clustering or using a high award symbol ratio, guarantees that the jackpot symbol will frequently land just out of reach on the payline. The machine isn’t almost hitting the jackpot; it is mathematically programmed to show you a near-miss.

The Legal Loophole in Slot Design

You might be wondering how it is legal for a machine to misrepresent the true odds of the symbols landing on the screen. The answer lies in how gaming regulators define fairness and randomness.

In major jurisdictions like Nevada, gaming regulations require that the outcome of a spin be determined entirely by the RNG. The machine cannot decide you are going to lose and then run a secondary program to intentionally generate a near-miss. However, because the virtual reel mapping is baked into the primary math model of the game, it is entirely legal.

The RNG randomly selects a number, and that number corresponds to a specific stop on the virtual reel. Because the virtual reel is heavily weighted with stops right next to the jackpot symbol, the “random” result will naturally produce a disproportionate number of near-misses. Some jurisdictions, like Ontario, have no specific regulations against these asymmetric or “starved” reels, giving manufacturers broad leeway to engineer the player experience.

Why This Matters for Your Bankroll

Understanding the near-miss effect is one of the most powerful tools you can have when playing slots. The flashing lights and near-jackpots are designed to bypass your logical brain and tap directly into your reward circuitry.

When you see two jackpot symbols and a blank, remind yourself that the machine did not “almost” pay out. Every spin is an independent event, and a near-miss is mathematically identical to a complete miss. It does not mean the machine is “hot” or that a win is coming soon.

By recognizing the near-miss for what it is—a programmed illusion—you can maintain better control over your play. Set strict limits on your time and budget, and never chase a jackpot just because it looked like it was one inch away.

Frequently Asked Questions

Here are the most common questions players have about the near-miss effect and slot machine programming.

---

Stablecoin vs. Credit Card: Why Smart Bettors Stopped Using Fiat in 2026

If you used a credit card to fund your sports betting or casino account this year, you likely paid for the privilege. You may have also had your transaction declined, or waited days to see your winnings hit your bank account.

This friction is exactly why the crypto gambling market exploded to $81 billion in 2025. But this growth wasn’t driven by Bitcoin speculators hoping to double their money before kickoff. It was driven by bettors switching to stablecoins like USDT and USDC simply because they work better than fiat.

The shift from credit cards to stablecoins is no longer a fringe movement. It is a fundamental change in how players manage their gambling bankrolls.

The Hidden Costs of Credit Card Betting

The traditional banking system was not built for modern online gambling. When you deposit $100 into a sportsbook using a Visa or Mastercard, the bank does not treat it like a regular purchase at a grocery store.

Instead, major issuers like Chase, Discover, and American Express explicitly classify online gambling transactions as cash advances. This triggers immediate financial penalties. According to a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report, the standard cash advance fee is the greater of $10 or 5%.

This means a casual $20 deposit incurs a $10 fee — an immediate 50% loss on your bankroll before you even place a bet. Furthermore, these transactions begin accruing interest at rates often exceeding 30% from day one, with no grace period.

Beyond the fees, reliability is a major issue. Banks frequently block gambling transactions entirely. A bettor trying to lock in a live line might find their deposit declined simply because their bank’s fraud algorithm flagged the transaction — a problem that does not exist with stablecoins.

Why Stablecoins Solved the Fiat Problem

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged directly to the US Dollar. One USDT or USDC is always worth exactly one dollar. They offer the speed and borderless nature of crypto without the terrifying price volatility of Bitcoin or Ethereum.

For bettors, stablecoins eliminate the three biggest pain points of traditional fiat gambling. First, there are no cash advance fees. When you transfer USDC from a wallet to a betting platform, there is no bank sitting in the middle to reclassify the transaction. You pay a negligible network fee — often pennies on networks like Solana or Polygon — and 100% of your deposit hits your account.

Second, withdrawals are near-instant. Traditional credit card or bank transfer withdrawals can take anywhere from 24 hours to five business days to clear. When you win using stablecoins, the funds typically appear in your digital wallet within five to ten minutes of requesting the payout. If you want to understand all your online gambling banking options, the differences in speed and cost are stark.

Third, there are no bank declines. Stablecoin transactions operate on decentralized networks. There is no bank fraud department to arbitrarily block your deposit right before a major game.

The Data Behind the Shift

The numbers show that bettors have already figured this out. According to research from StablecoinInsider, digital currency bets totaled $26 billion in Q1 2025 alone — nearly double the prior year’s figures.

Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) now account for 93% of the total stablecoin market capitalization. Because their value does not fluctuate, bettors can hold their bankrolls in these digital dollars without worrying that a market crash will wipe out their funds overnight.

The CFPB has noted that one-in-four sports bettors still prefer using credit cards to fund wagers. However, as awareness of cash advance fees grows and more platforms optimize for crypto deposits, that number is expected to drop sharply through 2026.

How to Make the Switch

Transitioning from fiat to stablecoins requires a slight learning curve, but the long-term savings are substantial. The process involves setting up a digital wallet, purchasing USDC or USDT through a reputable exchange like Coinbase or Kraken, and transferring those funds to a compatible betting platform.

While the initial setup takes a few minutes, every subsequent deposit and withdrawal happens almost instantly. For players who regularly use real money casino apps, the switch to stablecoins is one of the most impactful changes they can make to protect their bankroll from unnecessary fees.

If you are tired of paying your bank a premium just to access your own money, 2026 is the year to leave the credit card in your wallet.

Frequently Asked Questions

---

The “Ghost” in the Machine: How AI is Predicting Your Next Bet Before You Make It

Something is watching your betting patterns, and it’s not the house pit boss. Artificial intelligence is now building personalized “game floors” for every player, predicting your preferences, and tailoring your experience in real time.

What Is AI Personalization in Gambling?

AI personalization in gambling refers to the use of machine learning algorithms to adapt betting odds, casino lobbies, and promotional offers to individual players based on their unique behavioral data.

Instead of every user seeing the exact same sportsbook homepage or casino lobby, the platform dynamically reshapes itself to match what the system believes you are most likely to engage with.

This isn’t a futuristic concept — it is happening right now. Major operators are shifting from experimental pilot programs to platform-wide AI architectures.

According to research from LSports, 72% of surveyed sportsbooks list a “personalized player experience” as the biggest factor in retaining customers. The goal is simple: keep you engaged longer by showing you exactly what you want to see.

How the Tech Works: Building Your Custom Game Floor

The traditional casino floor was designed to guide you past the slots to the table games, keeping you inside the ecosystem. Today, that floor is entirely digital and custom-built for you every time you log in.

Technologies like IGT’s TrueAim system, recently showcased at the Global Gaming Expo, demonstrate how deeply this integration goes. By ingesting loyalty program data — from slot play and table games to dining habits — the AI builds a comprehensive profile of your preferences.

If you are a casual slot player who prefers low-variance games and weekend play, your app interface will highlight those exact options. If you are a high-frequency sports bettor, you might see premium markets and deeper data feeds pushed to the top of your screen.

This extends to the odds themselves. The concept of “smart odds” means that AI systems can adapt betting lines based on user profiles, device types, or timing. While this promises higher engagement for operators, it also raises questions about transparency and fairness in pricing models.

What Data Are They Collecting?

To build these hyper-personalized experiences, operators need data — and lots of it. Every interaction you have with a betting app is a data point fed into the machine learning model.

The systems track every bet you place, every game you open, and the exact length of your sessions. They monitor what time of day you prefer to play, which days of the week you are most active, and whether you are betting from a mobile phone or a desktop computer.

More importantly, they analyze your response rates to different types of promotions and look for behavioral patterns, such as how you react after a loss.

Dr. Lia Nower of Rutgers University found in a 2023 study that a small percentage of bettors — around 5% — were placing 70% of the bets. For operators, identifying and retaining these highly engaged players is essential to their bottom line, making this data incredibly valuable.

How Players Can Flip the Script

While it might feel unsettling to know an algorithm is predicting your next move, savvy players can actually use this knowledge to their advantage. The AI is essentially holding up a mirror to your betting habits.

First, understand your own patterns. If the AI is showing you specific markets or games, it is because your past behavior indicates a preference for them. Recognizing this allows you to make more objective betting decisions rather than impulsive ones.

Second, exploit personalized bonuses strategically. If the system is feeding you tailored deposit matches or free spins, take advantage of the offers that provide genuine mathematical value — but resist the urge to play beyond your original bankroll just because the offer feels custom-made.

Finally, remember that the “personalized game floor” you see is not the objective reality of the sportsbook or casino. Dig deeper into the menus to find value bets and markets that the AI isn’t actively pushing to your homepage.

The Responsible Gambling Double-Edged Sword

The same technology that maximizes engagement also has the power to protect players. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it is increasingly being used for early intervention and harm reduction.

Systems can now predict gambling problems before the player even realizes they are losing control. By detecting risky behavior — such as sudden increases in bet sizing, erratic deposit frequency, or chasing losses — the AI can trigger responsible gaming alerts, suggest cooling-off periods, or even enforce hard limits.

In regions with strict regulatory frameworks, like the European Union under the new AI Act, this type of player protection is becoming a mandate rather than an option.

Ultimately, the ghost in the machine is neutral. It is designed to understand you better than you understand yourself. Whether that leads to a more entertaining betting experience or a cautionary tale depends entirely on how you play the game.

Frequently Asked Questions

Here are some of the most common questions about AI personalization in online gambling.

---

Gambling involves risk. Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available 24/7 at the National Council on Problem Gambling or call 1-800-522-4700.

2026 World Series Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The 2026 MLB season is almost here. We got a 2026 MLB Opening Day pick out already, so if now isn’t a good time to pull back and take a big picture look at the coming season, I’m not sure when it is.

A long, grueling MLB season is ahead of us, but at the end of the road someone will do what the Los Angeles Dodgers have done the past two years; celebrate as World Series champions. Per DraftKings and other MLB betting sites, of course, it will actually once again be those annoying Dodgers.

Sorry, Dodgers fans, but I’m sure you get it.

Truth be told, as much as sports bettors want to nab some value – or MLB fans in general want a change in championship scenery – Los Angeles continues to look like the team to beat.

But nobody wants a reality where it’s just the Dodgers’ world, and we’re all just stuck living in it. The end result may very well be exactly that once the dust settles, but hope can be quite a thing. With that in mind, let’s preview the 2026 MLB season with a breakdown of the current World Series odds.

I’ll sift through the top contenders, the most alluring sleeper picks, and cap things off with an early 2026 MLB World Series prediction.

2026 World Series Odds

Above are the 10 teams with the best odds to win the World Series this year. The Dodgers leading the charge should surprise nobody. They’ll seek out history, as they have an opportunity to become just the fifth team in MLB history to complete a three-peat.

History isn’t really on their side, of course, while there are more than a few teams capable of dethroning them.

Still, the World Series odds display quite the pricing gap, as the New York Yankees are the second team in terms of price. They’re all the way down at +1000, and at least for the moment, L.A. is the only team with pricing better than that.

New York isn’t alone in their price range, either. They might be viewed as the top threat to the Dodgers, but eight other squads have World Series betting odds at +2000 or better per DraftKings.

Which teams should we take seriously, and who is being overlooked? I’ll go over the top contenders and top sleeper picks before deciding if this is the year of the Dodgers (again).

Why Are the Los Angeles Dodgers the World Series Favorites?

The real question is, why wouldn’t they be? The Dodgers won it all two seasons ago, and then even with their backs against the wall versus a seemingly better Blue Jays team, they willed their way to a repeat.

What’s changed since then? Los Angeles is still as stacked as ever, the best player in baseball – Shohei Ohtani – is still on their roster, and their murderer’s row of aces hasn’t gone away.

Clayton Kershaw is gone, but that’s arguably addition by subtraction at this point, while the perpetually loaded Dodgers only got better by adding big bat Kyle Tucker in free agency.

L.A. is simply unfair in all respects, and it remains to be seen if they can get anything meaningful out of Roki Sasaki. If Tucker is who they thought they were adding and Sasaki can morph into a reliable asset, the Dodgers might not be beatable.

Heck, even if Tucker is average and Sasaki does nothing, that still may end up being the case.

Top 2026 World Series Contenders

Los Angeles is the team to beat, to be sure, but it’s at least arguable that their time on top is about to run out. If it does, these four teams seem like the most likely bets to get the job done in 2026:

Best 2026 World Series Sleeper Picks

• Detroit Tigers (+2000)
• Baltimore Orioles (+2200)
• Milwaukee Brewers (+3500)

There’s nothing like taking a chance on some World Series betting value. Why? Because when a huge favorite like the Dodgers fails to live up to expectations, sometimes a team nobody sees coming can slop through the cracks and shock the world.

Think: Toronto from last year, Washington, Texas, and the list goes on. Shocking teams can reach or even win it all, so it can pay to toss some cash on a few teams that have the framework of a championship squad, but maybe aren’t priced as one.

The first one is easily the Tigers. They’re admittedly not even that far out from the top contenders, but Tarik Skubal headlines a rising defense that was in the top half of the majors in strikeouts last year and also did a great job limiting walks (10th).

Detroit still has Skubal leading the charge along with Jack Flaherty and Justin Verlander, while newcomer Framber Valdez adds some spice to the rotation.

Baltimore Orioles comes in at +2200 and may be even more compelling. The O’s have all the power in the world (11th in home runs) and are simply a young team that is starting to come together.

It’s actually the pitching department that could elevate this squad to new heights, though, as Trevor Rodgers has morphed into an ace and newcomers such as Shane Baz and Chris Bassit round out an Orioles rotation that lacks pizazz, but certainly isn’t short on substance.

There are plenty of other World Series sleepers in theory, but I’ll cap things off with the Milwaukee Brewers. This is undeniably a team at risk of taking a big step back – especially with the talented Chicago Cubs breathing down their neck – but they also had the best record in baseball a season ago.

That type of damage probably isn’t sustainable, and there are red flags associated with the Brew Crew (like trading away ace Freddy Peralta). However, the Brewers are well managed and do all of the little things right. Last year was living proof, as Milwaukee finished the season ranked 3rd in batting average, 2nd in stolen bases, and third in scoring.

Milwaukee Brewers was also nasty on defense, finishing 2nd in collective ERA and 5th in total strikeouts. Again, the Brewers lack the star power or budget of other teams, but the substance is still there.

The Brewers should also get Brandon Woodruff back and acquire Kyle Harrison via trade, while the team has cleared a path for some interesting prospects to potentially make an impact.

Milwaukee’s strategy carries some risk and isn’t for everyone, but it’s their way, and they keep executing it to perfection. That’s why we can’t rule out the possibility of it eventually leading to a ring.

Top World Series Longshot Bet for 2026

It’s pretty likely the 2026 World Series champion ends up being one of the teams discussed above. The Dodgers and Yankees look like really good bets to at least get there, while the other teams discussed stand out the most.

Even the sleeper picks I broke down look like viable options that may be riskier, but have a path to contention and offer more bang for your buck. That said, the MLB playoffs can be wild, and sometimes simply getting your foot in the door is all it takes.

Want a legit 2026 World Series longshot bet that actually has legs? Try the Pittsburgh Pirates on for size.

Any path to a World Series title has to start with elite defense. That comes from legit aces up top, and the Pirates definitely have one in the unflappable Paul Skenes.

Skenes was the driving force for a pitching rotation that finished top-10 in combined ERA, limited power (3rd fewest HR allowed), and didn’t give free passes (7th fewest walks). The Pirates need to heat up in the strikeouts department, but they already have the early makings of one of the best defenses in the league.

The problem? Their offense.

Pittsburgh has been a notoriously weak offensive team for years, and it’s a big reason they finished at the bottom of the Central Division last year. However, the Pirates added some power to their lineup with new arrivals in Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, and DH Marcell Ozuna.

The Pirates need that power to translate without seeing their strikeouts rise and batting average to go down any further. The jury is still out on this team offensively, but if they can come anywhere close to matching the level the defense has been at, this could be a fun sleeper team to back early.

Key Factors That Decide Who Will Win the World Series

The World Series winner usually is decided by a number of key factors. Here are the biggest ones that help shape the race and can end up altering odds:

• Pitching Depth: You need to shelf aces, but a strong bullpen is just as important.
• Trade Deadline: Who is willing to make the big odds-shifting moves required to help you go the distance?
• Health: The healthiest teams are often the best teams, standing tall at the end of the year.

On top of these factors, you need to be pretty darn good from top to bottom. Having nasty power will get you regular-season wins, but when the big games arrive, you also need to find other ways to get on base, avoid costly whiffs, and threaten the opposition with guys in scoring position.

The offenses that can do a little bit of everything or can combine power with efficiency and/or base running are the true contenders.

Defensively, you do need at least one ace to rally around, and having 2-3 top-shelf starting pitchers that can go deep into games is definitely key. But if the opposition gets to them early or they have off games, the pitchers behind them in the bullpen need to be capable of picking up the slack.

If you’re betting on the World Series, be sure to monitor injuries and the trajectory that comes along with them – and of course, how they impact a team’s depth and performance.

A great example was Gerrit Cole going down last year. Once that happened, the writing was on the wall that an all-or-nothing Yankees team would be good enough to make the playoffs, but that’s about it. Sadly, the pundits were correct.

2026 World Series Prediction: Who Wins It All This Year?

All roads undeniably lead back to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Baseball purists refuse to give into the idea that the salary cap is a true problem for baseball, but perhaps a third consecutive title will start to convince them.

The reality is if we’re judging this thing solely on talent, it continues to be not all that close. The Dodgers in their previous form were going to be the team to beat. Then they went out and added even more muscle on the plate with Kyle Tucker coming to town.

Los Angeles could perform below expectations. Maybe this time around a Toronto-esque team will go for the jugular and finish them off. But it feels unlikely. At least for one more year, getting the Dodgers at +230 to win the World Series feels like a hilarious gaffe.

Of course, if you do feel inclined to bet against L.A., consider the other contenders and sleeper teams I broke down in this World Series betting guide.

2026 Oscars Odds, Picks, and Predictions

The 2026 Oscars are almost here. The red carpet is about to roll out, and while simply enjoying the show and honoring magnificent Hollywood performances is fun, it’s not quite enough.

Instead, you can also bet on the Academy Awards, as DraftKings has odds out for every major award category. From Best Picture to Best Actor, you can do more than just offer Oscars predictions to your friends and family; you can show them the cash you make from betting on them.

Not every Oscars bet is alike, of course, and some odds are better than others. If you want the inside track to winning Oscars picks, join me as I run through every major award and come away with my top 2026 Oscars predictions.

Best Picture Odds and Prediction

One Battle After Another rolls into the 2026 Academy Awards with 13 nominations, which finished second only to Sinners. Sinners is shaping up as the only real threat to Paul Thomas Anderson’s baby getting the recognition it deserves.

You can make faint cases for other films. Marty Supreme has a former Oscar winner in Timothe Chalamet leading the charge in a well-made biopic (something the Academy eats up), while movies like Hamnet and Frankenstein are beautifully shot, are period pieces, and also are propped up by classic literature.

If you want a total curveball, dream big and consider the jaw-dropping Bugonia. It probably won’t win, but it’s certainly not light on captivating acting performances or raw brutality.

Of course, all roads surely lead back to One Battle After Another, which was priced at -300 at most online sportsbooks when I broke down the Best Picture odds not too long ago.

The odds have only jumped, while One Battle After Another has dominated the award circuit with wins for best film at the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild of America, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and more.

The one cause for pause? Hamnet won for Best Picture at this year’s Golden Globes. That outcome is often a mixed bag, as it can be seen as a consolation prize for a top-shelf movie that won’t win at the Oscars, or it can be a precursor to a film winning the big prize.

I’d definitely consider throwing some hedge bets on both Hamnet and Sinners, but all signs still suggest this is One Battle After Another’s race to lose.

Pick: One Battle After Another (-400)

Best Actor Odds and Prediction

Michael B. Jordan is the slight frontrunner to win Best Actor, with this nod being one of a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations for Sinners. Since the movie isn’t likely to unseat One Battle After Another, I can see it soaking up some of the other awards.

This is a big one, obviously, but if we’re looking at raw talent, acting, and platform, then Michael B. Jordan is a pretty good bet. For one, he won this same award at the NAACPO Image Awards, and he gained serious steam by winning again at the 32nd Annual Actor Awards.

That said, Timothee Chalamet is an Oscar veteran at just 30 years old. He’s been in some impressive and demanding projects, and yet has been passed over in four different nomination cycles. He could have easily won for his work in Call Me By Your Name or A Complete Unknown, but his effort in Marty Supreme represents his first real shot at the elusive hardware.

This looks like a two-man race, but I am digging the value and narrative associated with betting on Chalamet. For one, the odds are pretty tight. Secondly, Chalamet has come very close more than once and got snubbed. Lastly, he won the same award at the Golden Globes this year.

It’s a close call, but Chalamet arguably delivered the more compelling acting performance, and the Academy can honor Sinners in other categories.

Pick: Timothee Chalamet (+120)

Best Actress Odds and Prediction

There isn’t a similar dilemma when trying to predict who will win Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars. That’s almost definitely going to Jessie Buckley, as the Irish actress played a complex and emotionally deep role as the wife of William Shakespeare in the highly praised Hamnet.

She has a lot going for her, seeing as the overall competition seems fairly weak, she has a strong narrative after first gaining recognition as a nominee for The Lost Daughter, and she was a huge part of a classic movie that the Academy tends to love.

Oh, and she has dominated the awards circuit, winning this same award at the SAGs, BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes. She’s a slam dunk.

The only issue here is the price. Nobody is betting on Buckley at -3500, so you’re either avoiding this wager or seeking out an upset. Emma Stone was brilliant as a suspected alien in Bugonia, but the only logical pivot is Rose Byrne.

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is a turbulent mind warp that got mixed reviews to say the least, but there’s no denying Byrne’s captivating performance. That said, this race is already settled.

Pick: Jessie Buckley (-3500)

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction

Another Oscar race that is likely etched in stone is Best Supporting Actor. Considering the amount of screen time he gets one could argue that Penn should be in the mix for Best Actor, but no matter what, his nuanced performance as the vile but hilariously awkward Colonel Lockjaw makes him a deserving candidate.

He’s one of the easiest picks of the lot.

Penn is in the lead, and the Academy has shown him love in the past. With two Best Actor wins to his name, he can add another Oscar trophy to the mix for a pretty unforgettable effort in One Battle After Another.

You’re not getting a ton of value at his -350 price, although it’s leaps and bounds better than betting on Jessie Buckley. Still, there are viable pivots like Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo.

Benicio Del Toro didn’t get enough screen time (a true crime) but was a scene-stealer with what he had to work with, while Jacob Elordi was riveting as Frankenstein’s monster.

That said, Penn looks locked in as the winner.

Pick: Sean Penn (-350)

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction

If you’re looking for value and/or a 2026 Oscars betting market that isn’t quite settled, look no further than the Best Supporting Actress.

Amy Madigan leads the way for her work in Weapons, but she is a plus-money favorite, meaning we can definitely look elsewhere. The top contender is Teyana Taylor as the scene-stealing rebel from One Battle After Another, but I only have eyes for Wunmi Mosaku, who was undeniably the heart and soul behind Sinners.

Those three ladies are in the fight of their lives for this award, and I can see any of them winning. However, the Academy has to honor Sinners in some way, so paying Mosaku the respect she deserves looks like a good way to do that. It doesn’t hurt that she offers supreme value at +225, either.

Pick: Wunmi Mosaku (+225)

Best Director Odds and Prediction

You don’t need to try very hard to predict who will win Best Director this year. Paul Thomas Anderson comes in with absurd -2500 odds to win the award, so it’s virtually guaranteed.

His film One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Picture as well, but even if it doesn’t he looks like a very strong bet due to the world he created, along with character development and overall tone. He’s cleaned up so far, taking home this same award at the BAFTAs, Directors Guild of America, and this year’s Golden Globes.

His insane betting odds mean he’s not really someone worth betting on. Oscar upsets do happen, too, so I’d either avoid this bet or take a flier on Ryan Coogler or Chloe Zhao.

Zhao undeniably helmed the most Oscars-y film of the year, as Hamnet’s gut-wrenching emotional journey was absolutely beautifully made. She won already for her work in Nomadland, however, which probably plays into why she’s not being seriously considered.

Sinners was nominated for 16 Oscars for a reason. It won’t win even half of the, but it’d be a shame if it didn’t take home a big one. It’ll have to stage some upsets to make it happen, but Coogler surviving a tidal wave of logic to come away with the win would be a fun upset to root for.

While that is where my money would be, the smart bet is still for Paul Thomas Anderson to come away with the award.

Pick: Paul Thomas Anderson (-2500)

Other 2026 Oscars Betting Markets & Picks

Above are the other 2026 Oscars betting markets, the leading odds on the favorite to win, and my pick for who will win each respective award.

Most of these are pretty settled, and the prices are egregious to the point of avoidance. You can find some value in a few, with my favorite being the Over on the number of Oscar wins for Sinners.

For a film nominated 16 times, it’d be pretty disappointing if it didn’t win at least five times. It’s important to remember that nominations don’t mean wins, but I still like its chances, and the +100 odds are nice.

Sinners (+250) to win Best Cinematography is also one of the better 2026 Oscars upset picks you can bet on this year.

Tips for Betting on the Oscars in 2026

Before you bet on the 2026 Academy Awards, make sure you follow these helpful tips:

Best 2026 Oscars Bets

I’ve broken down all of the major Oscar award categories and offered my predictions, but some of these betting markets have egregiously priced favorites.

Naturally, you’re not betting on someone to win Best Adapted Screenplay at a staggering -3500 price tag. That likely means an upset isn’t possible, but you’re either avoiding that wager or targeting something offering better value.

With value in mind, here are the best bets for the 2026 Oscars:

• Best Picture: One Battle After Another (-400)
• Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet (+120)
• Best Actress: Rose Byrne (+1200)
• Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (-350)
• Best Supporting Actress: Wunmi Mosaku (+225)
• Best Director: Ryan Coogler (+800)

Remember, my best bets for the 2026 Oscars don’t mean these are the winners I am predicting. I already did that above when breaking down each Oscar category with the latest odds. These are more about tapping into the best pure value for each spot.

Betting on the Oscars in 2026

If you’re looking for 2026 Oscars odds and want to know the best place to bet, look no further than DraftKings. I pulled all of these wagers and the pricing above from DK, and right now, they’re arguably the top spot to bet on the Oscars this year.

DraftKings doesn’t need much of a sales pitch, as they’re one of the better-regulated sportsbooks out there, but the fact that they’re also touching on entertainment betting markets is an added bonus.

Go there to bet on the Oscars and stay there for the competitive pricing, bonuses, and wide array of bets.

I’ve handed out my top 2026 Oscars predictions and picks, but as noted, some of these categories just don’t make betting much fun. I’d definitely move away from the spots with really heavy favorites and try to locate some value.

Want my top Oscars bet for the entire event? I’d be targeting Sean Penn to win Best Supporting Actor at -350 pretty aggressively.

The price isn’t to die for, but it’s probably the best-priced 2026 Oscars bet that feels like a sure thing.

My favorite value is Chalamet (+120) to land his first Oscar win for Best Actor.

Overall, there is still plenty of value to tap into at this year’s Oscars. Lean on my picks and predictions and head to DraftKings to take advantage of some of the best pricing you’ll find anywhere online.