Auburn Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners Prediction (September 20, 2025)
No. 22 Auburn is headed to Memorial Stadium in Norman undefeated, but Saturday’s game is the first time they’ll be up against some SEC-level resistance. No. 11 Oklahoma? Also unbeaten, and it has the stronger front on both sides of the ball and a defense that can put Auburn on its back foot from kickoff.
Both teams have nonconference wins and a chance to boost their Playoff standing in a crowded SEC. Auburn and Oklahoma also have proud programs and pasta; each has a national title this century and another appearance in the championship game. But in recent years? Auburn hasn’t finished above .500 since 2020, and Oklahoma has logged two losing seasons in the last three.
Auburn is trying to prove it belongs among the SEC’s elite after an up-and-down start; Oklahoma wants to back up its ranking with a home win that will bolster its CFP case.
The spread is tight for this game, there’s a moderate total at 47.5, and Auburn does have some upset potential here. Keep reading for game details, the current betting odds and lines, team overviews, main matchups, game flow expectations, betting market analysis, our picks for the three best bets, and our final game score prediction!
Game Info
- Matchup: Auburn Tigers (3-0) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (3-0)
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, at 3:30 pm ET (2:30 pm CT)
- Venue: Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK
- How to Watch: Airing on ABC
Betting Odds
If you’re thinking about wagering on the game, here are the odds and lines posted on DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Auburn | +7 (-115) | +200 | Over 46.5 (-112) |
Oklahoma | -7 (-105) | -245 | Under 46.5 (-108) |
Note: Oddsmakers have Oklahoma priced just above a touchdown favorite at home. The total of 46.5 points points to expectations of a more contained matchup compared to typical Big 12 or SEC scoring output!
Team Overviews
Yes, Auburn hasn’t lost yet, but it also hasn’t been up against a roster that’s as deep or as physical as Oklahoma’s. This game will show if the Tigers’ defense can hold up against real speed, or if the Sooners expose the gap between a fringe SEC team and a top-15 program.

Auburn Tigers
- Form: Auburn hasn’t faced a top opponent yet, and past trips against ranked teams on the road have ended badly.
- Offense: They want to run the ball and limit possessions, but the passing game hasn’t proven it can carry them when they’re forced into long downs. The QB has to protect the football or this will get ugly.
- Defense: The front can clog rushing lanes, but the secondary has been beaten before when pitted against aggressive passing attacks. If Oklahoma spreads them out, Auburn will be under a lot of strain.
- Trends: Auburn has lost most of its road games against ranked teams over the last several seasons; it rarely covers the spread in those spots.

Oklahoma Sooners
- Form: Oklahoma looks better overall and is playing with more pace that Auburn can’t keep up with.
- Offense: Their QB has protection and multiple receivers who can win one-on-one matchups. The ground game is more of a complement than a centerpiece, but it’s definitely good enough to keep defenses honest.
- Defense: This unit has better discipline; there are fewer missed tackles and closer coverage. Auburn’s run-first playbook will test its interior, but Oklahoma has the athletes to close space fast.
- Trends: At home, the Sooners usually cover when they’re favored by less than a touchdown; they usually pull away in the second half.
Main Matchups & Game Flow Expectations
Auburn’s only chance is to slow the game down and lean hard on its rushing attack. Oklahoma will try to stretch the field and challenge a secondary that hasn’t really held up against speed.
- Auburn’s Run Game vs. Oklahoma’s Front: Auburn has to move the ball on the ground and drain the clock. If OU holds the line? The Tigers will be stuck in passing downs that play to the Sooners’ defense.
- Oklahoma QB vs. Auburn Secondary: The Sooners’ quarterback has multiple receivers who can separate. Auburn’s corners have been burned in past matchups against vertical passing, and that’s where OU will press the issue.
- Coaching Decisions: Auburn’s approach is built around controlling possession, and Oklahoma tries to increase volume and force mismatches. The plan that holds? That’s what will dictate the flow of this game.
- Special Teams: In a game that’s lined within a touchdown, hidden yardage in punts and reliability in the kicking game could matter way more than they usually do.
Situational / External Factors
Are there any situational or external factors that could affect the game? Look below!
Injuries
- For Oklahoma: WR Keontez Lewis is listed as questionable (concussion) and might return for the Auburn game.
- For Auburn: DE Amaris Williams is listed as questionable with a shoulder issue.
Weather
- The forecast for Norman, OK, around game day is partly to mostly cloudy, with temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s during the day, cooling into the upper 60s overnight.
- The winds are expected to be mild ( under 10-15 mph), and there is no heavy rain expected in the hourly forecast.
External Context / Intangibles
- Oklahoma is expecting to have more of its roster available, which improves its depth.
- Auburn could be losing a defensive lineman (Williams) to injury, and that could weaken their pass rush.
Betting Trends & Market Info
What have oddsmakers said about this matchup, and what can the market info tell us? The following:
- Line Movement: The spread opened near Oklahoma −6 and has moved to −6.5. The total sits around 47.5 across most sportsbooks.
- ATS Records: Auburn is 1-2 ATS this season, and Oklahoma has shown better returns for spread bettors in similar spots.
- Public Money: Most of the public action is on Oklahoma, especially because they’re the home favorites. Auburn ML +205 is seen in parlay talk and smaller wagers, but has not been confirmed or sharp-backed.
Over/Under Analysis
- Case for Over 46.5: Oklahoma’s vertical passing can hit quick scores if Auburn’s coverage breaks. Auburn’s run game is capable of breaking longer gains if OU overcommits at the line. If both sides trade touchdowns in the third and fourth quarters? The total clears.
- Case for Under 46.5: Auburn’s path is long possessions on the ground, bleeding the clock, and limiting OU’s chances. Their defensive front can slow down Oklahoma’s rushing lanes and force extended drives. If Auburn drags the first half into a low-possession contest, the Under is in play.
- Lean: The Over has the edge if Oklahoma builds a lead by halftime, and the Under looks stronger if Auburn strings together multiple five-minute drives in the opening half.
Our Best Bets
The lines are pretty tight, but below are the three bets where the most value is for Auburn vs. Oklahoma!
| Bet | Why It Makes Sense | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Oklahoma -7 (-105) | More stability at quarterback, the home edge in Norman, and a deeper roster across both lines all point to OU covering. | ★★★★☆ (4/5) |
Over 46.5 (-112) | Oklahoma’s offense is built to reach the high 20s or low 30s, and Auburn has enough to push this into the 17–21 range. | ★★★☆☆ (3/5) |
Auburn +200 | This one is strictly a value play; Auburn needs takeaways on defense and sustained success on the ground to have a shot. | ★★☆☆☆ (2/5) |
Auburn Can’t Get it Done Against OU
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Auburn 20
Oklahoma not only covers the −7 spread but also pushes the game past the total; it’ll finish at 51 points.
Obviously, we are backing Oklahoma here. For Auburn to even compete, they’d have to control the ball on the ground and force turnovers, but sustaining that for all four quarters, and doing it in Norman? That’s a long shot.
Oklahoma’s QB advantage and a much stronger receiving group should get the time to find targets downfield, and the Sooners have way more options in the receiving corps to convert third downs. Sorry, but Auburn’s secondary doesn’t look like it’s built to contain them for a whole game.
Add in the edge on special teams and home-field execution, and the Sooners have everything they need to win this game and cover the number!
Best Bets Recap
- OU -7: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
- Over 46.5: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
- Auburn ML +200: ★★☆☆☆ (2/5)
Betting on Auburn vs. Oklahoma this Saturday? Don’t miss your chance to compare spreads, totals, and moneylines with our top football betting sites to secure the sharpest odds and payouts.
Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State NCAAF Preview & Prediction (September 19, 2025)
Can the Tulsa Golden Hurricane give us an in-state rivalry worth watching, or will the Oklahoma State Cowboys get the best of them and cement a rebound with authority? The Oklahoma State Cowboys have had an inconsistent start to this season, making this match a pivotal point for them to turn things around. But they’ll have to grind their way past the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, who are also looking to correct a weak start.
When it comes to the favorites, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have the upper hand. However, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane has a history of playing feisty against bigger programs.
With the spread set at 12.5 and the over/under at 55.5, oddsmakers expect points but not a blowout. We will analyze the records, statistics, betting trends, and matchup analysis to determine where you should look for real betting value.
Game Details
- Matchup: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-2) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-1)
- Date & Time: Friday, September 19, at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
- How to Watch: ESPN
Game Background and Context

Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-2)
Team Records & Recent Form
- The team opened the season with a win over an FCS opponent (the ACU). However, it couldn’t keep up the momentum, losing in its last two outings.
- Tulsa’s offense has leaned on RB Dominic Richardson. Even worse, the QB play has been shaky.
- The team’s defense has shown flashes, but we still see struggles against faster and more physical teams.
Key Players & Injury Notes
- RB Dominic Richardson is capable of 100+ yards if he receives the volume.
- WR Zion Booker is a deep threat, but his performance depends on QB accuracy.
- The team’s QB rotation is unsettled, resulting in concerns about its consistency.

Oklahoma State Cowboys (1-1)
Team Records & Recent Form
- The team did win the first match, but that was against a weaker team, UT Martin. We saw a different story when they faced Oregon in Week 2.
- One of the reasons for the team’s loss to Oregon comes from the flux in its offensive identity. The ground game has been inconsistent, plagued by quarterback turnover issues.
- On the defensive end, the team isn’t faring too well, with the defense giving up chunk plays. Tackling also remains a recurring issue.
Key Players & Injury Notes
- Like Tulsa, the QB situation with the Cowboys is unstable. They’ll need efficiency to avoid turnovers.
- The RB corps has not produced explosive plays yet this season, calling into question the likelihood of doing so in this game.
- The team’s defensive secondary is vulnerable to big plays, especially over the middle.
Heat to Head/Rivalry Context
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a decisive lead in the all-time series.
- Tulsa hasn’t beaten the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater since the early 1990s.
- This game will be a battle for state bragging rights, where the Cowboys have historically dominated.
- Tulsa might be the underdog, but they’ve shown hard play in this matchup. As such, we expect Tulsa to be a tricky underdog for this game.
Statistical Matchups
| Stat | Tulsa | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
Scoring Offense | ~23 PPG | ~28 PPG (inflated vs. weaker competition) |
Defensive Scoring Allowed | ~31 PPG | ~35 PPG (torched by Oregon, allowed nearly 600 yards) |
Yards per Play | ~5.2 PPG | Allowing ~6.8 YPP |
Turnover Margin | Even (neutral trend) | Negative, turnovers have killed drives |
The Betting Odds and What They Imply (via ESPN BET)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Tulsa | +11.5 (-115) | +340 | Over 55.5 (-105) |
Oklahoma State | -11.5 (-105) | -450 | Under 55.5 (-115) |
Don’t forget to double-check the odds—lines can shift quickly, and staying updated ensures you’re betting with the latest and most accurate numbers.
- Implied Probability
- Spread: Oklahoma State Cowboys projected to win by ~2 TDs
- Moneyline: The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ win probability is ~84%.
- Over/Under: Total projects mid-50s scoring game
- Oddsmakers indicate a slight lean to under (juiced at -115)
- The market confidence in the Oklahoma State Cowboys is high. However, there is hesitation to price spread beyond two TDs.
- The Tulsa backers see value in a rivalry game where motivation can keep it close.
Key Angles & Betting Considerations
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have covered only one of their last 6 games against FBS opponents when they were double-digit favorites.
- Tulsa historically covers in rivalry spots—3-1 ATS last 4 vs. the Cowboys.
- The Tulsa team could use its run game to exploit the Cowboys’ weak rush defense and shorten the game.
- A key question to consider when it comes to the spread is whether the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ offense can generate enough separation to cover.
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys’ defense leaks big plays, which favors “Over.”
- Tulsa’s offense has been equally inconsistent, resulting in a heavy lean towards “Under.”
- If Tulsa runs well in this game, the pace will slow down, favoring “Under,” but if the Oklahoma State Cowboys pass effectively, they’ll get a shootout potential that favors “Over.”
- When it comes to historical totals, the last three clashes between these teams have averaged 55.3 points, which is right at the current line.
- Oklahoma State Cowboys -450: Not playable.
- Tulsa +340: The bet is a long shot, but if the Cowboys continue in their turnover struggles, an upset is likely to happen.
- Our recommendation is to attack the spread or total instead.
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a big home advantage as they’ll play in Boone Pickens Stadium.
- Tulsa might turn its position as the in-state underdog into motivation.
- The game has a bounce-back narrative for the Cowboys after their poor outing with Oregon.
Best Bets & Picks
| Bet | Why It Makes Sense | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Tulsa +11.5 (-115) | The Cowboys haven’t shown consistency on offense. Also, the rivalry game tends to stay tighter. | 7/10 |
Over 55.5 (-105) | Both teams have porous defenses, and turnovers could set up short fields. | 6/10 |
Pass / Lean | Tulsa +340 | Things are too steep to back the Cowboys. Even so, the Tulsa small sprinkle is only for risk-takers. | 3/10 |
Expect the Oklahoma State Cowboys to Prevail, But Don’t Ignore the Underdog Value
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 24
The Oklahoma State Cowboys should win this game. However, we should also expect the team’s struggles to dominate consistently.
Tulsa’s running game gives the team a path to keep it within two TDs. However, defensive lapses from both sides will make the total lean towards “Over.” The best bet for this match is Tulsa +12.5, and that comes with solid confidence.
Get set for the Oklahoma State vs Tulsa showdown! Compare spreads, totals, and props on our trusted football sportsbooks to secure the best value and make smarter wagers.
Parlays and Tailgates: The Ultimate Betting Guide for Your Game Day Party
What’s better than a football tailgate? The sounds and smells coming from the sizzling grills, amped up fans, and ice-cold brews are all a part of the party.
And you know what makes it even better? That’s right, adding some sports bets to the fun. Just like adding more toppings to your burger, it makes it better.
Want to throw a tailgate that your friends will try to copy next week? Then read on, as we have a guide that will tell you everything you need to have a party like no other on game day. It’ll be a combo of sports betting and tailgating for the maximum amount of fun.
Not only that, but we’ll go over real examples of parlays for NFL and college games, highlight odds boosts from the best sportsbooks, give you some regional tailgate food and drink pairings for different betting styles, lay out awesome group betting games (like prop bet bingo and pick’em pools), and tie it all together with tips for responsible, high-tech wagering at the tailgate of the week. Put on your fav jersey, your best BBQ’ing apron so you don’t mess up your fav jersey, turn on the grill, and you can turn your party into a parlays and tailgates paradise!
What Is a Parlay & Why It’s Perfect for Game Day
A parlay is when you stack two or more bets into one slip, and if all of them hit? Whew, the payout is GOOD. Mess one up, though? And it’s a total bust. The mix of high stakes and high payoff is what makes parlays perfect for tailgates! They go with the long shots, funny and not-so-funny moments, and the cheering on your team that make game day feel so epic.
Why does it go perfectly with tailgates? Here are a few reasons we can think of, but there are probably more:
- It fuels the group energy and suspense vibes.
- One big play? Everyone around you goes nuts, hugs, or high-fives (you can fist-bump if that’s more your style).
- Payouts are boosted just enough to make a casual $20 feel like a bigger win.
And here are two basic examples of parlays:
- NFL Sunday: Moneyline winner + total points over + first TD scorer.
- College Saturday: Team A to cover + Player X over rushing yards + under on total points.
Don’t Make These Rookie Parlay Mistakes
There are some things you just don’t do with parlays, and these are them:
| Mistake | Why It Trips You Up |
|---|---|
Too many legs | One dang miss kills the whole thing |
Correlated bets | Betting the same game outcome twice backfires |
Ignoring juice | Big favorite = tiny payout anyway |
Chasing losses | Adding legs to win back money rarely ever works |
Setting Up Your Tailgate for Betting Success
You’ve got the big table, the fancy Yeti cooler, and the Bluetooth speakers. Now? It’s time to add the pieces that turn a regular ol’ tailgate into a betting epicenter!
Essentials for Game Day
- A mobile hotspot or reliable data, because nothing totally kills the vibe like a frozen betting app.
- Portable chargers so you can keep the phones juiced up through the game.
- Bluetooth speakers for hype calls and communal sweats.
- Streaming set-up with a Fire TV Stick, HDMI-out, or a portable projector so you can watch from wherever you are.
Best Sportsbooks Apps to Have Ready
There are so many sportsbooks out there, but the ones that we use the most? They’re the following:
- FanDuel: The app has a super easy parlay builder and tons of promos for NFL and college games.
- DraftKings: This sportsbook has slick SGP tools plus Progressive/forgiving parlay features that can soften the blow of a single miss.
- BetMGM: The iconic brand has a Parlay Builder that combines props and outcomes with regular profit-boost tokens.

Boost Your Winnings: Parlay Promotions on FanDuel, DraftKings & BetMGM
The best and legit sportsbooks all offer profit boosts, insurance, and special tokens, and those are all great for tailgate weekends! Here’s what you can get on these apps:
FanDuel: Profit Boosts & No-Sweat SGPs
FanDuel regularly drops Parlay Profit Boost tokens (25%, 50%, etc.). They also run No Sweat SGP promos: opt in, place a qualifying SGP, and if it loses, get site credit back (the amount varies). Always check the Promotions tab before kickoff, as boosts usually require opting in and toggling the token on your slip.
DraftKings: Parlay Insurance & ‘Ghost Leg
DK rotates parlay profit boosts and multi-leg insurance. A recent feature, Ghost Leg, acted like a one-time mulligan on an NFL parlay: if exactly one leg failed, DK “ghosted” that leg and paid as if the rest won (promos like this pop up for big weeks). Be on the lookout for stepped-up SGP boosts (like +20% for 3 legs, +30% for 4, etc.), and always hit Opt In.
BetMGM: Parlay Plus & Weekly Tokens
BetMGM’s Parlay Plus tiers add an extra percentage payout the more legs you play (e.g., 10% on 4 legs up to 40% on large ladders). They also run weekly challenges that award temporary tokens (parlay boosts, odds boosts). Odds boosts on pre-built parlays appear frequently—worth a look before you build your own.
FYI: You don’t need to use all three apps, but it always helps to shop around. An 8-leg flyer might pay most with BetMGM’s big boost; a group SGP might be the safest move under FanDuel’s no-sweat; DK’s insurance can save you a near-miss. Boosts are bonus value, so use them, and then go flip the hot dogs before they burn!
Check out our list of the Best Betting Sites so that you can grab the newest sign-up deals, promos, and boosts!
Easy Betting Games for Guests (Even the Non-Bettors)
Look, some of us love first downs; others just want to sip on a tasty bev and watch the scoreboard. But you can pull everyone into the fun! Even your friends who don’t know an over from an out route. Here’s how to make it an all-hands-on-deck event:
- Printable scorecard or pick sheet: Have a coin toss, first scorer, winner, and basic player props. Hand out pens, and the winner gets a prize!
- Pick’em boards: Decorate a poster board with the day’s NFL games (and top college tilts). People mark the winners, and the most correct takes the pot. If it’s a tie, have a tie-breaker: the total points in the night game wins.
- Prop Bet Bingo: Make cards with squares like “missed FG,” “coach’s challenge,” “backup QB plays,” “blue Gatorade shot.” The first line to bingo wins snacks, cash, or can roast the losers.
- Mobile group parlay: Have each guest pick one leg; one person places the bet, takes a screenshot of the slip, and handles payouts if it hits. Simple and fun!
How to Organize Prop Bet Bingo, Pick’em Pools & More
Want to learn how to set up the above games? We’ve got step-by-step instructions for you!

Prop Bet Bingo Cards
Make squares with the most likely events, like “50+ yard TD,” “missed FG,” “sack,” “booth review,” fun ad callouts, and a free space. Print randomized cards so they’re not identical. Decide on line/bingo/blackout winners and hand out small prizes. This will keep even the non-football fans engaged.

Pick’em Boards & Score Pools
List all matchups; the guests pick the winners (or ATS). Track a leaderboard and pay out the top score. For a luck-only version, run football squares or quick 10-line strip cards for each half; there’s no skill needed, and there’ll be big end-of-quarter sweats.

Group Prop Sheets
Create a one-page sheet (10–20 yes/no or either/or props). Collect sheets before kickoff, then tally after. It’s prediction-meets-trivia and keeps everyone locked in.
Live Betting Games
- Bet Bucket: pull random prop slips during commercials; each person tosses in $1 per pick.
- Fourth-Quarter Jar: anyone can challenge a prediction for a small amount; winners take that amount from the jar.
Keep it light and fun! All you need are some pens, paper, and a couple of gag trophies to turn a parking lot into a party legend.
Themed Parlay Ideas for Your Party
Want a theme that’s not just “winning”? You can match up your bets to your particular tailgate style, and we’ve got!
- “Backyard Blitz” Parlay: Three home teams, leaning to favorites. This could look like a Packers ML, Chiefs -3.5, Texas ML (~+400 range).
- “Hot Wings Longshots” Parlay: Three teams +200 or longer. If one hits, great; if all three hit, wings are on the house (that’s you, you’re the house and buying the wings).
- “Beer Run” Parlay: Teams that are tied to beer sponsors (this one is a novelty; no one has to make a beer run).
- “Tailgate Classic”: One NFL pick + one college pick + one prop (e.g., Georgia -6.5, Ravens ML, “any defensive TD” at plus money).
Live Betting While the Grill’s Going
Live betting is where your tailgate energy meets real-time moves. But you need to ride it and not let it ride you!
Why does live betting work for tailgate parties? Because the momentum of football games can change in a heartbeat. The adjusted spreads, drive markets, and halftime totals mean that you can bet with the pace of the game.

Here are some fun live bet ideas:
- After a big stop, take a favorite to score on the next drive or grab a live spread at a friendlier number.
- Post-Q1 adjustments: React to the matchups after you’ve watched a quarter.
- Halftime totals: Totals usually move hard, so hop on that value if the first-half pace looked misleading.
Etiquette
Live betting also requires a little etiquette; nothing like a bougie sit-down dinner, but practice the following to mind your manners:
- Use your data or your hotspot; don’t ever use sketchy public Wi-Fi.
- No tilt-bets! If your team’s getting hammered, get out while you can.
- For group wagers, there should be one person executing the slip so there’s no confusion.
If this all sounds like Greek to you, we have a comprehensive Beginner’s Guide to Live Sports Betting that will walk you through it!
Responsible Betting & Tech Tips for Tailgate Wagering
There is nothing more important than betting responsibly. We know how emotions can ebb and flow during a football game, but that doesn’t mean you should lose control! With that in mind, here are the best tips for responsible and safe betting when you’re tailgating!
- Set a budget for the day and do not divert from it. Treat it like you do your food budget; once it’s gone, you’re done.
- Don’t make impulse bets when you’re buzzed or have had one too many drinks. Place your bets before the party is in full swing; if you are live-betting, set a personal cutoff (for bets and booze).
- Use Sportsbook app tools: There are deposit limits, time reminders, and reality checks; they’re all there for a reason, so use them.
- Keep perspective: Even the most experienced bettors don’t win every day; don’t freak out if you lose, it’s the cost of entertainment in this arena.
- Take breaks: If you lose your cool or get frustrated, put yourself in a timeout. Have a bite to eat and chill.
If y’all decide to live bet during the parlay party, here are some good tech tips so that your experience will be glitch-free (we can’t guarantee this, but it’ll help):
- Connectivity: Test your sportsbooks’ apps before the game; use a hotspot; and place bets during breaks.
- App features: Use live stats, cash-out options, and live scoreboards features to help you out when you’re juggling multiple games.
- Geolocation: If you get location errors near state lines or spotty Wi-Fi, toggle to cellular, relaunch, or move to your left (or right).
- Battery: Bring some power banks; streaming + betting drains devices like crazy.
- Delay awareness: Satellite TV can lag by seconds, so place your bets during dead balls or timeouts.
- Group coordination: Designate one person to place the group parlay and share the slip screenshot.
Don’t forget why you’re there in the first place: for friends, food, and football. Betting adds something extra, but it’s not the main entree. Wins are so much better when everyone’s laughing, and losses hurt less when nobody has overextended.
Drinks, Food, and Betting Pairings
Some flavors go with your bets like peanut butter and jelly do together! There are super spicy wings for riskier parlays, and trusty burgers for steady favorites. Want to take it up a notch? You can with either simple drink and food pairings, or you can go all in with regional fare.
- Spicy wings = higher-odds parlays: heat and big swings just go together.
- Classic burgers = moneyline favorites: simple, steady, and always satisfying.
- Loaded nachos = totals: layer on toppings like you’re stacking points.
- Brisket/BBQ = underdog sprinkles: bold, slow-cooked patience for those long-shot bets.
- Mixed grill = mixed parlay: a little of everything on the plate and in the slip.
And for the betting-themed drinking games, here are a couple of ideas:
- Take a drink every time a parlay leg hits.
- One celebratory shot for a botched field goal (optional, and maybe a little evil, depending on the shot choice).
Regional Tailgate Menus
After you’ve matched your Buffalo wings with overs or brisket with longshots, you can take it even further and lean hard into your local flavor. Tailgates aren’t the same, and what’s on the grill in Baton Rouge will look nothing like the spread in Ann Arbor or Philly. That regional flair is all part of the fun, and you can tie it into your bets just as easily. Below, we’ve lined up some of the country’s most iconic tailgate menus with parlay ideas and betting vibes, so you can bring a hometown twist to the action.
- Plates: Burnt ends, sliced brisket, cheesy corn, baked beans, pickles, and white bread.
- Drinks: KC craft lager or a bourbon lemonade.
- Parlay angle: “Smoker Special;” a home team ML + RB anytime TD + over 0.5 made FGs each half.
- Plates: Jambalaya, andouille po’boys, chargrilled oysters, and boudin balls.
- Drinks: Abita Amber and frozen daiquiris.
- Parlay angle: “Bayou Blowout;” home team -3.5 + WR 60+ receiving yards, alt line + over 0.5 defensive/special teams TD (sprinkle).
- Plates: Coney dogs (chili, mustard, onion), pierogi, and smoked kielbasa.
- Drinks: Michigan IPA or apple cider + bourbon.
- Parlay angle: “Motor City Grind;” under 48.5 + home team ML + over 3.5 total sacks.
- Plates: Roast pork with broccoli rabe, soft pretzels, and, of course, cheesesteaks (wit cheez).
- Drinks: Lager (this keeps it classic).
- Parlay angle: “Pretzel & Points;” moneyline favorite + TE anytime TD + longest FG over 47.5.
- Plates: Smoked brisket and turkey, jalapeño poppers, and street corn cups.
- Drinks: Ranch water or Texas pilsner.
- Parlay angle: “Lone Star Ladder;” home team alt spread -6.5 + QB 250+ passing alt + over 1.5 team TDs first half.
- Plates: Cedar-plank salmon sliders, garlic fries, Tillamook mac, and veggie skewers.
- Drinks: Hazy IPA or local cider.
- Parlay angle: “12th Man Tilt;” home crowd boost: false start penalty (yes) + home ML + under 0.5 missed extra points.
- Plates: Italian beef with giardiniera, cheese curds, and bratwurst with onions.
- Drinks: Midwest lager or brandy old-fashioned (sweet).
- Parlay angle: “Lakefront Lean;” under 44.5 + RB 60+ rushing alt + both teams to record a sack.
- Plates: Mojo pork sliders, Cuban croquetas, gator bites, and plantain chips with guac.
- Drinks: Cuban coffee cocktails and light lager.
- Parlay angle: “Sunshine Sweat;” over 49.5 + longest TD over 39.5 + KR/PR 20+ yard return (yes).
- Plates: Carne asada tacos, elote, al pastor, salsa bar, and churro bites.
- Drinks: Mexican lager and paloma mocktails/cocktails.
- Parlay angle: “Tunnel Run;” WR 70+ receiving, alt + over 2.5 total team TDs + to lead at halftime.
- Plates: Lobster rolls (mini), clam cakes, chowder shooters, and sausage peppers & onions.
- Drinks: NE IPA or a dark & stormy.
- Parlay angle: “Harbor Hedge;” moneyline + under 47.5 + over 1.5 made FGs (road team included).
- Plates: Polish boy sandwiches, potato pancakes, and buckeyes (dessert).
- Drinks: Ohio brown ale or bourbon + cola.
- Parlay angle: “Dog Pound Push;” home +3.5, alt + over 3.5 total sacks + first score = FG.
- Plates: Nashville hot chicken sliders, white-BBQ slaw, and skillet mac.
- Drinks: Light beer or whiskey lemonade.
- Parlay angle: “Broadway Burst;” over 24.5 first half + WR anytime TD + team to score first (home).
- Plates: Primanti-style stacks (featuring fries in the sandwich), pierogi, and kielbasa.
- Drinks: Local lager or a black-and-gold shandy.
- Parlay angle: “Steel Curtain Script;” under 42.5 + any INT thrown (yes) + over 0.5 4th-down conversions.
- Plates: Sonoran dogs, carne asada fries, green-chile queso, and prickly-pear salsa.
- Drinks: Light lager and prickly-pear margaritas.
- Parlay angle: “Desert Dash;” over 46.5 + longest field goal over 48.5 + RB 40+ rushing alt.
- Plates: Sausage & peppers, nonna-style cut pizzas, garlic knots, and cannoli bites.
- Drinks: Italian pils, espresso martini batch (careful, these will sneak up on you!).
- Parlay angle: “MetLife Mix:” under 44.5 (wind watch) + over 3.5 total sacks + TE 30+ receiving alt.
If you are going to be imbibing, please be responsible and don’t drive if you’ve been drinking! And that goes for betting; don’t wager if you’re over the limit.
Need an assist with gambling limits and tools? You can check out our Responsible Gambling guide for help!
Host the Post-Game Winner Reveal
You tipped your last leg and the final whistle blew; now what? You can make the finish line another party highlight!
- Summarize everyone’s bets: who hit, who whiffed, and who’s buying the next round.
- Award mini prizes: a $5 pool winner, a paper crown, or a “tailgate sharp” sash.
- Snap a group photo and share it on IG, X, Facebook, or make a fun reel for TikTok.
Parlay the Day Away
A gameday that has food, friends, and a little bit of living-on-the-edge betting doesn’t just appear out of thin air; you have to plan it, but it’s so worth it!
Parlay (pun intended) the energy in the air, let the grill heat up, and turn every quarter into something memorable. It doesn’t matter if you’re that one friend who reads stats for funsies or the one who is just there for the eats; there’s a place for you at a parlay tailgate party!
Here’s a quick recap of why parlays and tailgate parties go hand-in-hand:
- Parlays and tailgates are a can’t-miss combo for football; there’s fun to be had for everyone in attendance.
- Build your tailgate set-up so that you can stream the game, charge your devices, and make the betting a social activity
- Keep your guests engaged with games like bingo, pick’ems, and split parlays
- Choose themed parlays that line up with the vibe you’re going for (and your wings)
- Use live bets to level up the action
- Pair your snack spread with your betting mood
- Wrap up the party with fun or silly awards, and who knows, maybe your parlay hits and you walk away with some cold, hard cash!
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction & Betting Picks (September 18, 2025)
Thursday Night Football will be an AFC East fight in Orchard Park, home of the Buffalo Bills, and Miami is running onto that field right into a trap with this matchup.
The Dolphins are 0–2 for the first time since 2019; they were beaten by the Chargers and Patriots, and now are facing a team that’s straight up owned them for close to a decade. Buffalo is sitting pretty at 2–0, fresh off wins over Indy and the Jets, and the Bills have ripped off six in a row against Miami; they’ve won 13 of the last 14 overall.
Kickoff happens at 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium, and Buffalo is the 11.5-point favorite, which is the largest spread of the new season and almost unheard of in divisional matchups; the total is posted at 49.5 points.
Keep reading to find out the game details, what the latest betting odds are, recent trends for both teams, players to watch, main matchups, possible game plans, and what we feel are the three best bets for this one!
Game Details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins (0-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
- Game Details: Thursday, September 18 at 8:15 pm ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
- How To Watch: Thursday Night Football streams on Amazon Prime Video
Betting Odds
If you’re gonna bet on the game, here’s what FanDuel has posted for odds and lines:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Dolphins | +11.5 (-106) | +570 | Over 49.5 (-118) |
Bills | -11.5 (-114) | -820 | Under 49.5 (-104) |
Recent Trends & Context
Two weeks into the NFL season, Buffalo already looks like the team to beat. Miami? It’s fighting to keep its head above water in the AFC East. Look below for the recent trends of both squads!

Buffalo Bills
- Record: Buffalo is off to a 2–0 start; they took down the Jets 27–13 in Week 1 and the Colts 31–18 in Week 2. Both were games where they built control by halftime and never looked fazed.
- Defense: Sean McDermott’s front has been relentless; he’s held opponents to 3.1 yards per carry and forced five turnovers in two weeks. Greg Rousseau already has three sacks, and linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard have been flying downhill to bottle up short gains.
- Offense: Josh Allen has thrown for 572 yards and five touchdowns during two games and added another score on the ground. Stefon Diggs has been his go-to with 16 catches and 2 TDs, and Dalton Kincaid is quickly becoming a solid option in close spaces. Buffalo hasn’t had to chase points yet, and that’s allowed them to play a balanced game.
- Home Edge: Since 2023, the Bills are 11–2 at Highmark Stadium, averaging nearly 30 points per game. Allen’s passer rating at home is 13 points higher than on the road, which just underscores how hard Orchard Park is for the visiting quarterbacks.

Miami Dolphins
- Record: Miami has dropped to 0–2 after falling 27–20 to the Chargers in Week 1 and 24–17 to the Patriots in Week 2. Both games were within reach, but Miami’s execution late in drives was the difference.
- Offense: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have combined for 325 yards and 3 scores, but Tua Tagovailoa has been hit nine times and sacked five. Without Austin Jackson at right tackle, protections haven’t been solid, and Miami has leaned too much on quick passes. The run game with Raheem Mostert has been bottled up, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry.
- Defense: The secondary has been picked on, giving up 270+ passing yards in both games and missing open-field tackles that turned into big gains. They’ve forced only two sacks during two weeks, and that isn’t enough pressure against vet QBs.
- Situation: Starting 0–3 in the AFC East would put Miami in a hole that’s historically hard to climb out of. Expect Mike McDaniel to be really aggressive with play-calling to try to change the direction.
Head-to-Head Rivalry
- Buffalo has beaten Miami six times in a row with an average margin of 12.8 points. The last three meetings in Orchard Park have all been won by double digits.
- The Dolphins haven’t won in Buffalo since 2016, when Ryan Tannehill outdueled Tyrod Taylor. Since then, Allen has personally gone 10–2 against Miami with a total of 34 touchdowns.
- Divisional familiarity means that neither side will be surprised by the other; success usually hinges on red-zone execution and the quarterback who takes better care of the ball.
Main Matchups & Players to Watch
The players and matchups we are watching in this one are as follows:
- Josh Allen vs. Dolphins’ Secondary: Allen threw for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last start against Miami. The Dolphins’ cornerbacks allowed 250+ passing yards last week and gave up separation when receivers ran outside.
- Stefon Diggs vs. Xavien Howard: Diggs tallied 92 yards and a score the last time he matched up with Howard. Howard missed time last week, and his ability to keep up with Diggs’ route speed will matter deep downfield.
- Dolphins’ Offensive Line vs. Bills’ Pass Rush: Miami surrendered four sacks against the Chargers when protection broke down on the edge. Buffalo’s Rousseau and Von Miller generated pressure on 38% of pass plays in their last game, and that set up player mismatches.
- Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle vs. Bills’ Safeties: Hill accumulated 181 yards in his last game vs. Buffalo. Buffalo’s safeties allowed 120+ yards after catch in Week 1, and that could open explosive yards if Hill or Waddle gets the room to run.
- Coaching: McDermott’s defense adjusted to limit deep throws and tightened up third-down dropbacks in Week 1. McDaniel used motion and quick-release passes to offset pressure last week, and those schematic choices could very well decide how many possessions each team gets.
Game Plan: How It Could Play Out
What will the game look like? According to past history and recent performances, there are three scenarios we could see:
- Scenario A (Most Likely): Buffalo’s front forces Miami into repeated third-and-longs, putting Stroud in predictable situations. Josh Allen takes advantage with designed runs and deep strikes, giving the Bills a two-score lead by halftime.
- Scenario B: Miami lands an early Tyreek Hill touchdown to keep pace through two quarters, but Buffalo’s pass rush and physical secondary begin to limit explosive plays as the game goes on.
- Scenario C (Upset Path): Miami’s best chance comes from using Raheem Mostert and a short passing game to control possession and keep Buffalo’s offense off the field. Can they drain the clock and avoid giving Allen extra drives? They give themselves a chance to cover or possibly steal the win.
- X-factors: The weather conditions in Buffalo (wind), execution in the red zone, and if Josh Allen can avoid turnovers will all play a big part in how this game ends.
Odds & Line Movement / Value Spot
- Spread (Bills −11.5): Divisional lines this high don’t come around very much, but Buffalo’s success against Miami and the Dolphins’ injury issues make it understandable in this case. The Bills have covered in similar matchups in recent years.
- Moneyline: At −820, the Bills’ ML isn’t playable on its own but could be paired in parlays. The Dolphins at +570 are a true long shot and will only attract bettors who are looking for a big payout.
- Total (49.5)
- Over Case: Both offenses have the ability to stretch the field, and if Miami is behind, they’ll be throwing heavily, and that ups the point potential.
- Under Case: If Buffalo builds a two-score advantage and changes toward longer possessions on the ground, that cuts down on the total number of drives and scoring chances.
Our Best Bets
Buffalo is the heavy favorite, but there are three specific plays that make the most sense when you take injuries and matchups into consideration!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Bills −11.5 (-114) | Buffalo has beaten Miami by decent margins before, and Miami is missing multiple starters that affect both the passing game and protection. That roster gap? It will show up across four quarters. | ★★★★☆ (4/5) |
Over 49.5 (-118) | Buffalo should put points on the board, and Miami will need to throw more if they are behind. More passing volume and occasional quick scores will push this toward the over. | ★★★☆☆ (3/5) |
Josh Allen — Anytime TD | Allen is the designated option in short-yardage and goal-line packages; his usage near the goal line makes a rushing/anytime TD a really smart play! | ★★★★☆ (4/5) |
Risks / What Could Go Wrong
- Miami’s speed on the perimeter can still generate a long touchdown, which would keep the margin within reach late in the game.
- Losing a starter during the game could alter matchups and force adjustments.
- Backdoor cover risk: if Buffalo is up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, Miami could add a late score that trims the final margin.
Final Word: Buffalo Covers Again in AFC East Clash
Final Score Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 20
The Bills win and cover at home, Miami adds points in the fourth quarter but never gets close enough to overturn the margin, and the Over 49.5 cashes on second-half scoring!
We’re behind the Bills all the way here! Buffalo will get it done at home; they’ve had Miami’s number in previous games, and the Dolphins come into this one missing too many main players to keep up with Buffalo for all four quarters.
Josh Allen’s red-zone production is still the biggest asset, and that’s more than enough to sway this matchup toward Buffalo. Miami could maybe connect on a long play or two, but the overall talent gap? That’ll be apparent by the end!
Best Bets Recap
- Bills −11.5: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
- Over 49.5: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Betting on Dolphins vs. Bills this Thursday Night Football? Stay sharp by comparing spreads, totals, and props with our top sports betting sites to maximize value and secure trusted payouts.
NYCFC vs. Columbus Crew Prediction & Best Bets (September 17, 2025)
The Columbus Crew are headed to the Bronx to face off against NYCFC at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday night. Kickoff is at 7:30 pm, and the Eastern Conference rivals are playing for playoff seeding!
Columbus and NY both possess serious attacking units, and both clubs have been in the running late in the season for the playoffs, so this should be an exciting game.
NYCFC is always on point when they play at home, but Columbus doesn’t always look its best when they are away from their pitch, which is why oddsmakers have NYCFC listed as the favorite at +110 and Columbus as a live underdog at +200.
As for the Draw, it’s hovering at +265, which is always a gamble in MLS games; the odds are predicting goals will be scored with Over 2.5 (-170), and BTTS (Yes at -200) is heavily juiced.
We’ll get into all of it below, so keep reading for the game details, team forms, recent performances, head-to-head comparisons, tactical matchups, main players, the latest betting lines, market analysis, and our picks for the five best bets!
Game Details
- Fixture: New York City FC (14-5-9) vs. Columbus Crew (13-10-6)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, at 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- How to Watch: Streaming with the MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Team Form & Recent Performance
How have NYCFC and Columbus Crew been playing recently? Let’s find out!

New York City FC
- Recent results: NYCFC has been relying on their home fixtures, and they’ve gotten most of their points at Yankee Stadium. In their last five league matches, they’ve picked up wins at home, but they’ve conceded in four of those games.
- Strengths: They average close to two goals per match at home. Their midfield, which is led by Santiago Rodríguez, gives service into the box on the reg and helps them hold possession for longer periods.
- Weaknesses: The back line has been breached pretty regularly, particularly from wide deliveries and second balls. Scoring output is concentrated among a handful of forwards, meaning they don’t have any other options when those players are contained.
- Key storyline: Can NYCFC turn its home results into another three points against one of the league’s best attacks?

Columbus Crew
- Recent results: The Crew keep getting goals but have been less productive when they aren’t at home; they’ve dropped more points on the road than in Columbus.
- Strengths: They average over two goals per game in their last 10 league outings, and multiple players are contributing. They have the ability to move quickly from midfield into attack and create regular openings.
- Weaknesses: On the road, they concede at a higher rate; they give up about 1.5 goals per match. They also depend really heavily on their front three to decide games when the midfield control falls apart.
- Key storyline: Can Columbus carry their attacking prowess into Yankee Stadium, or will defensive gaps away from home cost them this one?
Head-to-Head Insights
When we look at the H2H stats, here’s what we can surmise:
- Past meetings: Both Teams to Score have landed in about 70% of meetups between the two clubs. NYCFC has generally come out stronger at Yankee Stadium, but Columbus manages to keep it competitive.
- Recent encounters: The last three fixtures all finished Over 2.5, and Columbus has scored in all of the last five against NYCFC.
- Takeaway: History suggests goals at both ends and a really good chance of the total clearing 2.5.
Tactical Match-Ups & Key Players
What are we expecting to see tactically, and who are the players to watch?
- NYCFC will attempt to control long stretches with short passing and a patient build-up; they’ll try to keep the ball in central areas before feeding it wide.
- Mounsef Bakrar is the reference point up top. His movement in the box is the key when service comes in from Rodríguez and the wide players.
- Santiago Rodríguez sets the whole tone for the attack. When he gets the ball between the lines? NYCFC can create chances, but when he’s crowded out, its attack slows way down.
- Columbus likes to attack at speed; they break forward via direct passes instead of through extended build-up.
- Yaw Yeboah and other wide players will look to get at NYCFC’s full-backs and force them into one-on-one defending.
- Diego Rossi is central to their forward play; he links up with Cucho Hernández and finds the pockets where he can turn and shoot.
- If NYCFC can keep the ball higher up the pitch, they’ll limit Columbus’s ability to run in from behind.
- If Columbus finds the space behind NYCFC’s back line, they’ll have chances to turn the game their way.
- The midfield battle between Rodríguez and Keaton Parks and Darlington Nagbe and Aidan Morris will decide if possession stays with NYCFC or if Columbus is able to break out.
Betting Odds & Market Analysis
We’ve got the current betting odds and lines from DraftKings, along with a market analysis of each one!
Moneyline (3-way)
- NYCFC +115
- Draw +260
- Columbus +195
Both Teams to Score
- Yes -200
- No +155
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (-170)
- Under 2.5 (135)
Moneyline
- NYCFC +115: Home field is doing most of the work here.
- Columbus +195: This is a really solid number if you think that their attack will travel well.
- Draw +260: Very on-brand for MLS matches when both teams rely on control over taking risks.
Totals & BTTS
- Over 2.5 (−170): Heavily favored, and that tracks with how both sides play their games.
- Under 2.5 (+135): It’s not impossible, but you’d be fading both attacks and pace.
- BTTS – Yes (−200): This is steeply priced, but it’s backed by both teams’ scoring trends.
Other Angles
- Over 3.5 Goals: Available between +150 and +170 depending on the sportsbook.
- Correct Score: 2-1 and 2-2 line up with each team’s usual scoring output.
- First Half Over 1.5 Goals: This is usually priced between +120 and +140.
Prediction Scenarios
- NYCFC on the front foot: If they keep the ball and play through midfield? A 2-1 or 3-1 home win is realistic.
- Columbus gets in behind: If their transitions click, this game could open into a 2-2 draw or maybe a 3-2 win on the road.
- Defenses hold up: If neither side gives much away, a 1-1 draw is not off the table.
Our Best Bets
We’ve got five (yes, FIVE) angles that we think are the best bets for this MLS matchup!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
BTTS: Yes (−200) | Both clubs have scored in almost all of their recent MLS matches. | 8/10 |
Over 2.5 (-170) | Match history and season scoring averages point toward three or more. | 7/10 |
NYCFC +115 | NYCFC has a much stronger record at Yankee Stadium than Columbus does when it’s away. | 6/10 |
Correct Score 2-1 NYCFC +750 (est.) | A close home win lines up with form trends for both teams. | 5/10 |
First Half Over 1.5 Goals +130(est.) | Both sides create chances in the opening 45 minutes, and that raises the goal probability. | 5/10 |
Ready to place your winning bet on NYCFC vs Columbus Crew? Check out the top-rated sportsbooks and best odds today at GamblingSite.com before kickoff!
Risks & What Could Go Wrong
- If either defense tightens up, the Over will get way less appealing.
- Missing attackers for NYCFC could decrease their end product at home.
- Columbus usually adjusts when they’re away from home by slowing down the tempo and limiting space.
- Red cards, VAR calls, or tactical changes could change the flow of the match.
NYCFC vs Columbus Crew Final Prediction
Final Score Prediction: NYCFC 2 – 1 Columbus Crew
We’re taking NYCFC to win this one at home. Columbus is good, but recent road form doesn’t really compare to what New York usually does at Yankee Stadium!
Here’s why we are backing NY:
- NYCFC’s home record gives them a slight moneyline edge.
- Columbus has plenty of attacking threats, but is not as reliable when they aren’t at home, and that makes goal markets the safer angle.
- Both Teams to Score is hands down the strongest play.
- Over 2.5 goals also lines up with the recent trends for both clubs.
Best Bets Recap
- BTTS – Yes (−200): 8/10
- Over 2.5 Goals (−170): 7/10
- NYCFC +115: 6/10
- Correct Score 2-1 NYCFC (+750 est.): 5/10
- First Half Over 1.5 Goals (+130 est.): 5/10
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm Picks & Prediction (September 16, 2025)
Can the Seattle Storm regroup to even the score, or will the Las Vegas Aces punch their way through to the semifinals with another dominant performance? For the Seattle Storm, this encounter is an elimination game. The team has a mountain to climb if it wants to recover from the 25-point loss in Game 1 and create a major upset heading to the semifinals.
The Las Vegas Aces, on the other hand, have a winning momentum to their advantage. However, they’ll have to hold their own against the Seattle Storm, which has the home-court pride and desperation. Whatever happens, you can be assured of a showdown between these two competing teams.
You might pick the Las Vegas Aces as the favorite for this game, and you won’t be wrong. But hold that thought for a second as we go through the key matchups together and analyze statistical trends to see if the Aces are truly the favorites. We will also give you the betting angles and provide our best bets with confidence levels.
Game Details
- Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (30-14) vs. Seattle Storm (23-21)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
- How to Watch: ESPN and WNBA League Pass.
Game 1 Recap & Series Context
Game 1 Final Score: Aces 102 – Storm 77
What Happened
- The Aces dominated the game from the start to the final moments, shooting over 50% from the field and nearly 48% from beyond the arc.
- We also saw a balanced offense from the Aces, with Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum bringing the perimeter firepower. A’ja Wilson was efficient inside while Chelsea Gray orchestrated with high assist numbers.
- For the Storm, Gabby Williams and Jewell Loyd did provide offensive sparks, although those weren’t enough to swing the game. Dominique Malonga showed flashes but couldn’t back them up with consistency.
Series Context
- The Aces now lead 1-0 in the best-of-3 first round.
- The Seattle Storm faces the risk of elimination but would do so with their home crowd.
- When it comes to momentum, we will give it to the Aces, who have extended their winning streak to 16 games across the regular season and playoffs.
Key Matchups & X-Factors
- Wilson’s inside presence sets the tone on both ends. For Seattle, that will mean having a double-team or at least making Wilson work for post touches.
- Ezi Magbegor’s foul trouble in Game 1 did cost the team. As such, avoiding early fouls in this game will be critical to both teams.
- The Aces went nuclear from deep in Game 1. As such, one way Seattle can fight back would be to run them off the line and contest threes.
- Jewell Loyd has to outscore or at least match Young for Seattle to keep pace.
- Chelsea Gray is the primary engine for the Aces’ offense, as she racks up assists.
- Skylar Diggins must dictate the game’s tempo, keep turnovers low, and attack early in the shot clock.
- The Las Vegas Aces have efficient minutes from their second unit.
- On the other hand, the Seattle team will need to score over 20 points off the bench to stay competitive, as their bench was outscored significantly.
- The Seattle Storm fell apart after halftime in Game 1. It’ll have to avoid those 10-0 Las Vegas bursts for a chance at an upset.
Statistical Trends & Background

Las Vegas Aces
- Offense: The team ranks in the top 3 in offensive efficiency. It is also 1st in points per game during the regular season.
- Defense: The Aces have elite rim protection and rank in the top 5 for opponent FG%.
- Recent form: It’s been explosive for the Aces, as they ride on a 16-game win streak, with nearly 90 PPG as the average in that span.

Seattle Storm
- Offense: The team ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to efficiency. It also relies heavily on Jewell Loyd.
- Defense: We’ve seen the team struggle against high-scoring teams. It also currently ranks in the bottom half in defending threes.
- Home record: The Seattle Storm may be stronger at home, but that hasn’t stopped them from struggling against elite competition, the kind the Aces have.
Head-to-Head (2025 Season)
- Aces 3-1 vs. Storm in the regular season.
- The average margin of victory in wins is ~14 points.
- The Seattle Storm only won when the team held the Aces under 75 points, a rare feat.
Betting Odds & Market Analysis
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Aces | -5.5 (-110) | -225 | Over 160.5 (-115) |
Storm | +5.5 (-110) | +190 | Under 160.5 (-105) |
Market Interpretation
- Oddsmakers expect a competitive game but still give the Aces a comfortable edge.
- The spread implies that the Aces will likely win by 4 – 7 points
- The total of 161.5 suggests scoring will be a bit lower than Game 1’s 179 total. It factors in a potential adjustment in Seattle’s defense at home.
Pros and Cons Breakdown
Las Vegas Aces Strengths
- The team has an elite scoring balance and is unstoppable in transition.
- We also get veteran playoff experience with the Aces.
- The team’s depth and spacing make it difficult to defend against.
Potential Risks for Aces
- Shooting regression—unlikely to stay near 50% from deep.
- The Aces will have to play on the road in a loud arena.
- They might opt for a relaxed mood after the big win in Game 1.
Seattle Storm Strengths
- The team is desperate and typically brings max effort in elimination games.
- Jewell Loyd can explode for 30+ points.
- The home crowd’s energy could swing momentum in their favor.
Seattle’s Risks
- The team has defensive mismatches at every position.
- There are a few secondary scoring options.
- An early lead from the Aces could seal their fate.
Projected Game Flow
- Seattle will likely be aggressive in the first quarter as they feed off their fans.
- The Aces will opt to weather the storm early and settle into their rhythm by halftime.
- Both teams will likely have a pivotal third quarter. For Seattle, a win here will mean they can cover or upset the game.
- The Aces have the experience and depth to hold the edge down the stretch.
Best Bets and Confidence Levels
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Aces −5.5 (-110) | Vegas dominated Game 1 and has historically covered against Seattle. Even with a road crowd, their efficiency and balance should prevail. | 8/10 |
Over 160.5 (-115) | Game 1 totaled 179 points. Even with Seattle tightening up, both offenses have the firepower to push this total. | 7/10 |
Aces -225 | The bet is a safe parlay piece. It has a lower payout but a highly probable outcome. | 6/10 |
Storm Team Total Over (if offered ~78.5 | Expect Seattle to fight harder offensively at home. Even if they lose, scoring 80+ is plausible. | 6/10 |
Can the Storm Defy the Odds at Home
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 88 – Seattle Storm 80
The Aces simply have the better balance and experience. We expect Seattle to fight harder in front of the home fans, but covering may be their ceiling.
Our best bet is Aces – 5.5, Over 160.5. You can expect a closer contest than Game 1, but the game will still tilt toward Vegas.
The Aces and Storm are ready—are you? Take advantage of expert predictions and lock in your bets now with the top-rated sportsbooks here.
How Sports Bettors Exploit Arbitrage Opportunities Across Books
When we place a sports bet, there’s an agreement between our brains and the fingers we are using to make that bet that there is a risk involved in doing so.
Obviously, we know that we either win or lose, and it all depends on the game’s outcome. But there’s a gray area where it isn’t just win or lose. And that’s called betting arbitrage (aka “arbing,” which is adorable, or sure betting).
It’s a strategy where you place bets on all possible outcomes of a sporting event using different sportsbooks in such a way that you lock in a profit no matter who wins. Why are you doing this? To exploit the price discrepancies between bookmakers. The upside is a no-brainer: the chance at a guaranteed profit with almost no risk involved (at least in theory, if it’s executed correctly). Yes, it sounds too good to be true, but bettors really do use arbing to make regular and risk-free returns from sports betting!
Why would this kind of an opportunity exist? And is it legal? Yes, it’s legal, let’s get that out of the way. As to why it exists? Sportsbooks are all different entities, and they all have different bookmaking teams setting different odds based on their own models, opinions, or customer betting patterns. The operative word here is different, as we used it three times in the same sentence.
Odds also move at varying speeds; one sportsbook will update its lines slower or later than another when new info (like an injury or a change in the weather) hits the news. And sometimes, books run promo odds boosts or just make a mistake on a less popular market, and that causes one site’s odds to diverge from the broader market. All of these factors can turn into chances where betting both sides with two (or more) books will get you a risk-free profit.
In our comprehensive guide, we’ll walk through how arbitrage betting works, why and how the opportunities pop up, how to spot and calculate arbs, real examples across the biggest U.S. sportsbooks, and the risks that are involved. And we’ll also show you how you can profit from them!
How Arbitrage Betting Works
How does arbing work? By covering all outcomes of a game with bets at different sportsbooks, so that the payouts are higher than the total stakes that are laid out.
This means that you’ll win a little money no matter what happens in the event. The fundamental principle is as follows: you are “buying” odds on one side of a bet where they are high and simultaneously “selling” (or betting against) the other side where the odds are low. When you split your stake proportionally between those bets, you guarantee that one bet’s winnings will cover the loss on the other, and there’ll be some profit left over.
Say there is a tennis match between Player A and Player B. Sportsbook 1 thinks it’s an evenly matched contest and offers Player A at +115 (2.15 in decimal odds) to win. And over at Sportsbook 2, they have a slightly different view and offer Player B at +120 (2.20 in decimal) to win.
Both players are priced as underdogs by different books, and that’s an arbitrageur’s dream scenario. If you place a bet on Player A at +115 with Book 1 and a bet on Player B at +120 with Book 2 (using carefully calculated stakes), you can guarantee a profit regardless of who wins the match.
Why does it work? Implied probability, baby! Betting odds reflect the implied probability of an outcome, after accounting for the sportsbook’s cut (the “vig” or overround). The odds of +115 imply around a 46.5% chance of winning, while +120 implies about a 45.5% chance.
If you add up those probabilities? 46.5% + 45.5% = 92%, which is under 100%. In a steady market, the odds on all outcomes should sum to over 100% (because each book builds in a profit margin). The combined implied probability is only 92%, and that means there’s an 8% “hole” where the books have underpriced the outcomes. An arbitrage bettor fills that hole by betting both sides. In formula form, an arbitrage exists whenever:
In our tennis example, 1/2.15 + 1/2.20 \approx 0.465 + 0.455 = 0.920 < 1. This confirms a profitable arb. By allocating your bets so that the payouts for each outcome are equal, you lock in a sure profit.
And suppose you want each outcome to pay out $210. For Player A at +115 (2.15), you’d bet about $97.70 to get a $210 return. For Player B at +120 (2.20), you’d bet about $95.45 to get $210 back. In total, you’d wager $193.15, and whichever player wins, you receive $210, yielding $16.85 in profit. The profit margin is about 8.7% of your total stakes, and that’s not bad for a bet that, by design, cannot lose!
Arbitrage opportunities usually have much slimmer margins (1–5% is common, and many arbs are under 2%). But the process is always the same: cover all outcomes, guarantee equal payout, and pocket the difference between what you should have had to bet and what you did bet.
Arbing is purely number crunching and line shopping. You’re leveraging discrepancies in odds, so it takes a lot of discipline and speed instead of sports knowledge. You don’t have to know who the better tennis player is; you just need to spot that Book A’s odds and Book B’s odds are out of sync in a way that favors you.
Arbitrage can work with any two (or more) opposing bets, not just two-player moneylines. The classic arb is a two-way moneyline or total (over vs. under) bet, but it can also occur in three-way markets (like soccer win-draw-lose) or even across different bet types (more on advanced arbs later). The main thing is that the combined implied probability of all covered outcomes is below 100%.
Why Arbitrage Exists in the First Place
Arbitrage chances in sports betting happen due to inefficiencies or differences in how sportsbooks set and adjust their odds. If sportsbooks were always perfectly in sync with each other and with the real probabilities, arbing wouldn’t be a thing. Let’s go over the main reasons that the price discrepancies happen!
All sportsbooks have their own team of traders or an algorithm setting the lines, and they don’t all agree on the exact probability of a given outcome. One book might rate a team or player differently from another.
Sportsbook A could offer higher odds on an underdog to attract more bets on that side, and sportsbook B (or an exchange) could have lower odds due to smarter money betting the favorite. The differing opinions? Those create gaps. In highly competitive betting markets, bookmakers will also shade the lines based on their customer base or risk tolerance. One sportsbook will cater to more casual bettors and take bigger risks with generous odds, whereas another will be more conservative. When two books’ views diverge dramatically, their odds reflect it, and that’s when arbitrageurs can make their move.
Sports odds are never static; they move as news comes out and as bettors wager on them. Some sportsbooks update their lines faster than others do. A book with slower line movement may leave an outdated price up for a short window, and a faster book has already changed the odds.
The temporary mispricings because of timing are how arbitrage openings happen. If a star player is ruled out of a game, a sportsbook might immediately adjust the odds on the opponents, but another book could take a few extra minutes, and in that window, you could bet the advantageous odds on both sides. This is super common in fast-paced markets like live (in-game) betting or in niche sports where the sportsbook’s changes aren’t as quick to happen.
In regions where sportsbooks operate, biases in the bettor base can also influence odds. A sportsbook with a lot of local bettors might get heavy action on the home team, forcing it to shift the line more towards that team. And over at another book that has a different customer base, the odds won’t move as much. The regional differences mean that the same game can have different prices in different places.
If a Pennsylvania sportsbook gets a surge of bets on the Eagles, it might make their odds less favorable (to deter more Eagles bets), and a national book may still have a standard line on the Eagles’ opponent. The differences can cause arbitrage for bettors who have accounts at both books.
Sportsbooks all run promotions like boosted odds or special bets to bring in new customers. And although a boost (like a +EV promo odds on a certain team) is great for the customer at that book, it might inadvertently create an arbitrage situation when compared to the odds at another sportsbook.
A book could boost a team from -150 to +100 for a promo, and another book still has the opposing team at +133. In this case, betting both the boosted line and the normal line on the other side yields a sure profit. Artificial arbs like this happen because one sportsbook is willingly offering an off-market price as a marketing tactic. The smartest bettors watch for these deals and hedge them for guaranteed gains!
Sports betting odds are usually set by professionals, but mistakes can and do happen, especially in less popular sports or obscure markets. A typo, a data feed error, or a bad line on an under-the-radar game (like lower-league soccer, table tennis, fringe prop bets, etc.) can put one book’s odds way out of line with others.
The mispricings might last only minutes until the bookmaker corrects them, but during that time, an arbitrageur can get the generous odds at one book and the opposing side at another. Because the smaller markets don’t attract a ton of betting volume, bookmakers might not notice the error immediately, or they might not bother adjusting until someone bets it.
Arbers concentrate on these niches, as the opportunities might be more frequent there. But be warned: If a line is too obviously wrong (like inverted favorites or a huge odds error), the book could void those bets as an “obvious error” (palpable error), and that can rain on your arb!
Identifying Arbitrage Opportunities
Ok, so how do you go about finding arbitrage bets in the wild? In the yesteryear of arbing, bettors would manually compare odds across a handful of sportsbooks, looking for mismatches.
You would literally have 10 browser tabs open for DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars, while manically refreshing lines to hunt for that rare combo of odds that will get you a profit. You can find arbs manually, but who wants to do that? It’s a time-waster, and you could make a mistake.
Odds can move in the time it takes you to check one book before hitting the next one. And by the time you spot an apparent arb and go back to place the bets, one side of the line can change and the opportunity disappears.
Luckily for arbitrage bettors, there’s now technology and tools to help you see opportunities. Below is how you can find arbs, from low-tech to high-tech:
Line Shopping by Hand
This means regularly checking and comparing odds for the same game across multiple sportsbooks. Practically, you’d focus on markets that are likely to have discrepancies, like niche sports, alternate lines, or any bet where you notice two books have significantly different prices. You can use a spreadsheet or an implied probability formula as you go. While it’s educational, doing this manually for a long time is difficult and tedious. Not to mention it’s easier to miss opportunities or make calculation mistakes under time pressure (like confusing American odds or mis-estimating how much to bet). A small arithmetic error could turn a sure profit into an unintended loss, so manual arbing takes a lot of work.

Using Arbitrage Calculators
An arbitrage calculator is your best buddy for arbing! They let you input the odds for each outcome and tell you how much to stake on each side to guarantee a profit. Just plug in “Odds for Team A = +115, Odds for Team B = -110” and a total amount you’re willing to wager, and the calculator will output the exact bet sizes for each side and the expected profit margin. This takes the guesswork out of the math and helps to avoid human error.
Arbitrage Scanning Tools and Software
The fastest way to spot arbs is to use dedicated arbitrage bet finder tools. Services like OddsJam, RebelBetting, and SureBet are scanners that monitor odds across dozens of sportsbooks in real time.
These lil beauties automatically compare every line and highlight instances where you can bet all outcomes for a profit, and they’ll alert you that “Sportsbook A has Over 5.5 goals at +130 and Sportsbook B has Under 5.5 at -120” with a 2% arb margin. The tools save bettors a ton of time and can catch opportunities that a human won’t see. overlook. Some do come with subscription fees, but for serious arbers the cost is well worth it.
Real-Time Alerts and Bots
Then we have real-time alerts and automated bots! Bettors can configure an alert to ping their phone when a specific arb threshold (like >1% profit) appears in certain sports. Some bettors with programming skills use bots connected to odds APIs that not only find arbs but can place bets automatically when a certain criterion is met.

This is the most hands-off approach, and your bot could secure a profit before you even manually see there’s an opportunity. But using bots can be risky from a sportsbook’s perspective (some explicitly forbid automated betting and will ban suspected bot users). For most of us, using an arbitrage service or software with alerts is good enough to stay on top of the fast-moving odds.
Focus on Niche Markets
The major events (NFL games, NBA playoffs, etc.) do present arbs occasionally, but the competition and bookmaker attention on those is really high. The majority of arbitrage bettors choose to concentrate on the faster-moving or less popular markets like tennis, table tennis, smaller basketball or soccer leagues, and esports.
These are the markets with less liquidity and less efficient odds, and different sportsbooks can have really different prices live for longer, and you know what that means? Arbing chances!
And in-play betting (live betting) can produce brief arbitrage windows because the odds move so fast and not all books react in unison. The downside? You have to be super quick (odds might only align favorably for a minute or seconds in live betting). But if you specialize in a niche, you could find arbs more frequently than by randomly scanning NFL Sunday lines.
No matter which method you use, timing and accuracy are everything when identifying arbs. Opportunities can vanish in seconds, and a mistaken calculation can turn a sure win into a loss. That’s why most arbers leverage software and always double-check the numbers with a calculator. It’s also why having accounts funded at multiple sportsbooks is important, because when you see an arb? You have to execute both bets immediately!
How to Calculate an Arbitrage Bet
So you’ve spotted a possible arbitrage opportunity! What’s next? You have to calculate the exact stakes to wager on each outcome. The goal is to distribute your total betting money in proportion to each outcome’s implied probability, so that the payouts are equal no matter which side wins. This will guarantee that a profit is locked in!
Below is a step-by-step example on how to calculate an arb bet!
You see a discrepancy in a basketball game between two sportsbooks. Team A is listed at +115 on Sportsbook 1, and Team B is listed at -110 on Sportsbook 2. These are two sides of the same moneyline bet (Team A vs Team B). We’ll assume these odds are the best available for each side and that no other book has Team A at better than +115, and no other has Team B at better than -110, so this pair is the arbitrage opportunity.
Convert each odd to an implied probability. For American odds:

Now you add them: 46.5% + 52.4% = 98.9%. Since 98.9% < 100%, this indeed is an arbitrage situation. (In formula terms, using decimal odds: 1/2.15 + 1/1.91 = 0.989 < 1.) There is roughly a 1.1% profit margin available here.
Decide how much money in total you want to commit to this arb, or alternatively, how much you want each outcome’s payout to be. A lot of arbers choose a target payout for each side, and this makes the math easier. You could aim for each outcome to pay $100 (just as a simple baseline). You can always scale up the stakes proportionally after. For our case, we are gonna target a $100 payout on each outcome.
Using the target payout, calculate the required stake for each side:
- For Team A at +115 (which is 2.15 in decimal odds), to get $100 payout, you’d need to bet roughly $46.51 (because $46.51 * 2.15 ≈ $100). In general, Stake = Target Payout / Decimal Odds. So here: $100 / 2.15 = $46.51.
- For Team B at -110 (1.909 in decimal), to get $100 payout, you need to bet about $52.36 (because $52.36 * 1.909 ≈ $100). Calculated as $100 / 1.909 = $52.36.
If you want to target a certain total stake instead, you can use proportions: bet proportionally to the inverse of odds. But the equal payout method is intuitive!
Now, you verify the outcomes:
- If Team A wins, your Sportsbook 1 bet of $46.51 at +115 returns $100.00 (which includes $53.49 profit plus the $46.51 stake back). You lose your $52.36 bet on Team B, so after the dust settles, you have $100 from A win minus $52.36 lost on B = $47.64 net.
- If Team B wins, your Sportsbook 2 bet of $52.36 at -110 returns about $100 (specifically, it gives $47.64 profit plus $52.36 stake = $100). You lose $46.51 on Team A. You end up with $100 from B win minus $46.51 lost on A = $53.49 net.
In this calculation, the net amounts ($47.64 vs $53.49) are not exactly equal because we rounded to cents and targeted an exact $100 payout for simplicity. The difference between them (about $5.85) is the profit. To be precise, you could aim for both outcomes to net the same profit. To calculate the profit more directly: your total stake outlay was $46.51 + $52.36 = $98.87. And no matter who wins, you get around $100 back. That’s a $1.13 profit on a $98.87 investment, which is about a 1.14% return, and that matches our earlier margin calculation.
You could refine the stakes a little to even out the profit to the cent, but the principle holds: you’d make about $1.13 on ~$98.87 wagered, guaranteed.
You can scale this arb to any level that’s comfortable for you. If you wanted a higher profit, you’d increase the target payout or simply multiply all stakes by a factor. Targeting a $1000 payout on each side would mean betting $465.10 on Team A and $523.60 on Team B (10x the stakes above), yielding about $11.30 profit. Large bets like this can draw attention, so arbers usually hit lots of small arbs rather than one huge arb.
It’s always a good idea to run the numbers through an arbitrage calculator tool, especially if you’re dealing with more than two outcomes or non-standard odds. The calculator will confirm the stake split and profit. In this scenario, an arb calculator would confirm roughly a 1.1% profit and suggest the same stake proportions.
In formula terms, if we generalize for a two-outcome arbitrage:

This weights your total bankroll by the inverse of the odds (which correspond to implied probabilities). In our example, O_A = 2.15, O_B = 1.909. So:

If you plug T = \$100, you’ll get the stakes we calculated manually (approximately $46.5 and $52.4). The beauty of the formula or calculator approach is that it works for any number of outcomes. For three-outcome markets (like 1X2 bets in soccer), you’d ensure 1/O1 + 1/O2 + 1/O3 < 1 and stake proportionally to each inverse odd.
You can use our free arbitrage calculator to do these computations instantly! All you do is input the odds from each book, and it will output the exact stakes for a balanced bet and show your guaranteed profit percentage.
A final tip on calculation is to always account for the possibility of different maximum bet limits or odds changing. If one sportsbook won’t accept the full amount you need to bet for an arb, you’ll have to recalculate based on what you can bet (or skip that arb). And if you place one side of an arb and the other side’s odds move before you can bet it, you must recalculate with the new odds, or you risk breaking the arb.
Real-World Examples Across Sportsbooks
Arbitrage opportunities happen in any sport, at any sportsbook; all it takes is the right circumstances. Below, we’re going to take a look at some examples to show how lines can differ across mainstream sportsbooks and how those differences translate into sure-bet profits.
NHL Total – DraftKings vs BetMGM
Not long ago, an NHL game between the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers presented the perfect arbitrage scenario on the goal total.
- DraftKings had the Over 6.5 goals at -103 odds.
- While at the same time, BetMGM was offering Under 6.5 goals at +110.
The odds imply probabilities of about 50.7% (over) and 47.6% (under), adding up to only 98.3%. That leaves a 1.7% cushion for an arbitrage bettor. If you had $100 to split on this opportunity, the optimal approach was to bet roughly $51.58 on the over at DraftKings and $48.42 on the under at BetMGM. In doing so, you’d guarantee about $1.67 profit no matter if the game went over or under. No matter the outcome, one of your bets wins and returns around $101.67 while the other loses $48.42 (or $51.58), netting that $1.67. This is a small profit (1.67% return on $100), but it was free money for a minute or two until those lines changed. An arb like this is fleeting; maybe one of the books moved to -105/+105 or -110/+110 shortly after, but during that window? Quick bettors could lock in a risk-free win.
NFL Moneyline – FanDuel vs PointsBet vs BetMGM
Arbitrage usually involves only two sportsbooks, but sometimes you can involve three or more to cover all outcomes (especially in three-way markets or when using a combo of moneyline and spread). But sticking to two-book scenarios, think about an NFL game where one sportsbook has the underdog at a generous price and another has the favorite cheaper than usual.
In a past Jets vs Bills matchup, BetMGM’s moneyline on the Buffalo Bills was -300, and FanDuel’s moneyline on the New York Jets was +330. In this case, BetMGM was giving relatively favorable odds on the strong favorite (Bills) and FanDuel was giving extra on the underdog (Jets).
By betting the Bills at -300 on BetMGM and the Jets at +330 on FanDuel for proportional stakes, a bettor could secure around a 1.7% profit on their total wagered amount. About $322.50 on the Bills and $100 on the Jets would yield roughly $430 return in either scenario, netting $7.50 profit on $422.50 that was risked. The biggest-name sportsbooks have differing lines, and in this particular case, a 30-point difference on the underdog price (+300 vs +330), causing an arb.
Cross-Book Middle Turning into an Arb
Sometimes, arbitrage can be found in alternate lines or point spreads across books. An NBA game total where Caesars Sportsbook has Over 210.5 points at +100 (even money) and DraftKings has Under 211.5 points at +100 as a promotional line means that the sportsbooks not only disagree on the price, but also on the number (one offers a line a point higher).
If you bet the over 210.5 and the under 211.5, you’ve actually created a situation where two outcomes are possible:
- If the total lands exactly on 211, you win both bets (a special kind of arbitrage called a middle).
- But even if it doesn’t? You’ve bet over 210.5 and under 211.5 both at +100. The only way to lose money is if the game ends with 211 points exactly, which would push one bet and win the other, and that results in no loss (just returned stake on one side, profit on the other).
This example is a hypothetical (and a true middle rather than a pure arb), it shows how line differences can be exploited. In real arbitrage, you’re usually guaranteeing a profit on all outcomes, but experienced bettors sometimes take the smaller windows where one outcome yields a bigger win (winning both bets) and all other outcomes break even.
Consistent Small Edges Across Sportsbooks
Not all arbitrage bets are as clear-cut as plus vs. plus odds. A lot of the time, your arb will involve taking one side at a plus-odds underdog price and the other side at a slight favorite price.
DraftKings has Team X at +115 and Caesars has Team Y (the opposing team) at -105 for the same game. Team X +115 implies 46.5% and Team Y -105 implies ~51.2%, totaling 97.7%. That’s a 2.3% arbitrage margin. A bettor could put around $49 on Team X and $51 on Team Y to win $105 on either outcome, yielding a ~$5 profit on a $100 bet. The small-margin arbs (well under 3%) are way more common. They might only net a few dollars each, but over time? Even 0.5% or 1% edges can add up with enough volume.
Profitable arbing is all about volume and consistency. You could scour dozens of games to only find a handful of opportunities. But if you can reliably grab a 1-2% return on tens of thousands of dollars worth of bets (spread across many small bets), the profits turn into something tangible. This is why the most successful arbitrage bettors have accounts with as many sportsbooks as possible in their region; when one book’s line is off, you need to be ready to hit it and cover the other side elsewhere!
Risks and Challenges of Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting sure sounds like the holy grail of sports wagering (free money, yay!), but it has its fair share of risks and practical challenges. It is some kind of a get-rich-quick scheme, and it’s definitely not as simple as picking up cash off the sidewalk.
Sportsbooks Don’t Like Arbers (Account Limitations)
The number one issue arbitrage bettors face is that sportsbooks actively discourage this behavior. No, arbing isn’t illegal, but it does hurt the book’s profits, and sportsbooks reserve the right to limit or ban players who consistently exploit arbitrage. If a bookmaker notices that you always beat the closing line or always make bets that guarantee profit elsewhere, they may tag you as a “sharp” or an arber. The consequences can range from reducing the amount you’re allowed to wager (your max bet on a side is $10 when it used to be $1000) to account closure. Sportsbooks see using their odds to guarantee profit as cheating the spirit of the game, and they will cut you off if they detect it.
Market Moves and Execution Risk
An arbitrage opportunity is fleeting; odds can change at any moment, and there’s always a risk that by the time you go to place both of your bets, one of the lines has moved unfavorably. The nightmare scenario for an arber is you successfully bet one side and then the other side’s odds move before you can bet it, wiping out the profit margin or even making the whole thing a loss if you still complete the bet. This execution risk is real: if you’re too slow or the market moves suddenly (maybe due to breaking injury news), you get stuck. And if one sportsbook’s bet fails to go through or is voided (like a game cancellation, or the book voided due to an obvious error), you’ll be left holding an unhedged bet on the other side.
Human Error
The pressure of fast betting means that mistakes happen. Inputting the wrong amount, betting the wrong side, or misunderstanding the odds format can turn a sure profit into a loss. If you accidentally add an extra zero and bet $1,000 instead of $100 on one side, your balance of stakes is ruined. Or if you confuse a team because of similar names or bet an alternate line that wasn’t the one you intended, you might not actually have covered all outcomes correctly. Even if you use calculators, you have to make sure that you copied the odds correctly (American vs decimal, etc.). A small oversight, like forgetting that +115 means you enter 2.15 in decimal, will throw off your math.
Capital Requirements and Bankroll Liquidity
Arbitrage betting is a low-margin, high-volume approach, which means that real profits require larger stakes spread across multiple sportsbooks. If all your money sits in one account, you can’t cover both sides of an arb, so successful bettors keep balances across several books. This ties up capital and requires being okay with funds sitting in different accounts. Constantly moving money isn’t practical; withdrawals can take time, hit limits, or raise red flags with sportsbooks. To make arbing work, you need to have enough bankroll to distribute and the patience to let it sit across platforms until opportunities present themselves.
Geolocation and Account Issues
Sportsbooks in the U.S. are licensed state by state, so you can’t bet both sides of an arb that straddles two states unless you’re physically in both (or have help). Within one state, you’ll usually have enough books to work with, but some bettors are tempted to use multiple accounts or accounts in other names to get around limits. That’s really risky, and sportsbooks run strict KYC checks, share data, and can confiscate funds if they catch duplicate accounts. For casual bettors, it’s smarter to stick to one account per book.
Limits on Promos and Markets
You might not get banned outright, but books can cut your limits where you’ve been arbing, like on niche sports or props, or lock you out of odds boosts. Some will void any bets that they decide were obvious errors, and in rare cases, post “honeypot” lines just to catch out arbers. Even without a hard ban, the more you exploit the markets, the faster a book will make your betting life harder.
Time and Mental Load
Arbing takes away some of the gambling risk but replaces it with stress. Odds change in a blink, bets have to be placed instantly, and juggling accounts across books is a lot of work. You’re not betting for fun anymore; you’re chasing small percentage gains that add up. For some? It’s worth it, but for some, it’ll get old quick.
Advanced Arbitrage Concepts
When you’re arbing, you aren’t limited to betting both sides of a moneyline! Once you’re comfy with the basics? There are some more advanced ways to exploit those mismatched lines.
- Cross-Market Arbs: Sometimes the gap isn’t between two moneylines but between related bets, like a spread on one book and a moneyline on another. If the numbers don’t line up, you can lock in profit by mixing markets.
- Middling vs. Sure Bets: A “middle” happens when you bet both sides of a spread or total at different numbers, creating a sweet spot where both bets win. Unlike classic arbs, it isn’t guaranteed a profit every time, but the payoff can be bigger if you hit the middle.
- Matched Betting: When sportsbooks hand out bonus bets or boosts, you can hedge those promos across books to turn them into real cash. It’s one of the easiest entry points into arbitrage.
- Props and Alt Lines: Books don’t always agree on player props or alternative totals. If one sportsbook prices a player at over 24.5 points and another has under 26.5, you’ve got some room to set up a profitable hedge.
Is Arbitrage Betting Worth It in 2025?
Arbitrage has been part of sports betting for a long time, but the reality in 2025 looks much different from it did when sportsbooks were slower and promos were better. The method still works, but it comes with trade-offs that make it more work than fun.
Pros
- The math guarantees profit when the numbers line up
- It’s systematic and free from the guesswork of handicapping
Cons
- It takes constant monitoring and quick execution for small margins
- Sportsbooks flag arbers and cut limits or ban accounts
- Odds across books sync faster than ever, so opportunities disappear in a moment
Verdict: Arbitrage isn’t dead and gone, but it’s by no means a long-term career either! In the present market, it works best as a side hustle; it’s a way to squeeze steady returns out of your bankroll without gambling on outcomes.
Arbing: Still Worth It or Too Risky?
Is arbing worth it? Sure, if you have the time and dedication! But it’s not gonna make you rich. All you are doing is leveraging mismatched lines here and there for value. For some bettors? It’s a worthy pursuit! But for a lot of us, the effort it demands far outweighs the rewards.
Here’s a quick recap of all things arbing:
- It does work, and the math backs this up
- Success all depends on fast execution, accuracy, and managing your bankroll across multiple sportsbooks
- Small stakes won’t move the needle; scale matters, but limits make that harder
- Think in terms of racking up small but steady returns, not big jackpot wins
- Detailed tracking is a non-negotiable; you have to be and stay organized to catch mistakes and exploit them
Inter Miami CF vs. Seattle Sounders Match Preview & Prediction (September 16, 2025)
Sixteen days after getting absolutely smoked 3-0 by Seattle in the Leagues Cup final and then getting into an all-out ugly brawl after the game, Miami will meet the Sounders again on Tuesday, Sept. 16, at 7:30 pm ET.
Inter Miami gets home pitch advantage at Chase Stadium for the regular-season MLS match and wants to redeem itself after being embarrassed by the Seattle Sounders.
There’s not a trophy at stake for this one, but Miami really needs to win this one after they lost another game 3-0 over the weekend at Charlotte FC; they’ve dropped down to eighth place in the East.
Messi has played every minute of both games and hasn’t scored, which is crazy, and he also missed a penalty kick, which is also crazy; it’s Lionel Messi!
Miami needs these three points for the MLS table and is in damage control mode, and Seattle has been killing it this summer; they’ve only lost one of their last 16 games.
Miami still relies way too heavily on Messi to carry the attack, and without Suárez? They haven’t had any kind of real flow in the final third. Seattle doesn’t force anything; they stay organized, move as a unit, and go for the jugular when their opponents get sloppy.
If Miami doesn’t break through with a lot of control and purpose, Seattle won’t have a problem making them play from behind again.
Keep scrolling for everything you need to know about the game; we’ve got team forms, recent results, head-to-head comparisons, tactical matchups, main players, betting odds, market analysis, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details
- Fixture: Inter Miami (13-7-6) vs Seattle Sounders (12-9-7)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, at 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, Florida
- How to Watch: The game is streaming on MLS Season Pass for Apple TV
Team Form & Recent Results
Miami hasn’t looked great recently, but Seattle has been pretty close to flawless. Here’s a breakdown of both teams’ form and their recent results!

Inter Miami
- Last Match: Miami lost 3-0 to Charlotte; they gave up space between the lines and failed to recover when pushed into transition.
- Recent Pattern: Since the Leagues Cup, players’ performances have lacked consistency across midfield and the back line, and the disjointed play has hurt their ability to control matches.
- Tactical Setback: Since Suárez is suspended, Miami has lost a main option for hold-up play and combo movement, which forces Messi to drop deeper without a reliable central outlet.
- Defensive Record: Miami has allowed goals in 8 of its last 10 matches, and there’s been repeated breakdowns in wide coverage and slow midfield rotation when defending the box.
- Urgency Level: Sitting in eighth place, Miami faces extra pressure at home to stay close to the playoff line before time is up.

Seattle Sounders
- Last Match: Seattle earned a draw against LA Galaxy by controlling possession spells and limiting chances in open play without overcommitting forward.
- Recent Pattern: Their form has stayed steady; they have a clear system that’s built around spacing, rotation, and compact defending through the middle third.
- System Focus: Seattle’s defensive shape is compact, which forces opponents outside and recovers numbers centrally once possession changes.
- Scoring Trends: The Sounders have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches by creating chances via off-ball movement and precise passing in the final third.
- Outlook: With the Leagues Cup in the rearview mirror, the Sounders have continued to approach league matches with structure and control; there’s been no drop in performance levels.
Head-to-Head / Psychological Edge
- Last Meeting: Seattle whooped Miami 3-0 in the Leagues Cup final and did so with a controlled, disciplined performance that exposed the gaps in Miami’s midfield and back line. That loss is no doubt still very much on the minds of Miami’s players (not to mention the fight afterwards).
- Match History: These two clubs haven’t played each other often, but when they have met? Seattle has looked like the more organized and better-prepared team.
- Mental Factor: The weight is all on Miami here. They were outplayed in the last game; they’re at home, and they need this win. Seattle can approach the game with a lot less pressure and stick to their structure.
- Betting Insight: When teams try to force a response, they can leave themselves exposed. Miami has more to prove, but that can backfire if they push too hard too early. Seattle is in the better spot to control the pace and wait for chances.
Tactical Match-Up & Key Players
In this game, the tactics will matter more than the talent on the teams!
Inter Miami
- Shifting Roles in Attack: Without Suárez? Messi is expected to take on more responsibility in both creation and finishing. That means that the midfielders like Busquets and Gressel will need to play more direct, connect lines quickly, and support the front line with better positioning.
- Defensive Concerns: The wide areas are still vulnerable. Miami’s fullbacks have been caught too high on several occasions, which leaves space for opposition wingers to isolate defenders one-on-one or get in behind.
- Player to Watch: Messi’s ability to control the pace in the attacking third and create chances under pressure will be central to Miami’s approach. Without a natural striker next to him, he’ll have to find space and combine quickly to keep Seattle from falling apart in the middle.
Seattle Sounders
- Midfield Advantage: Seattle’s strength lies in how well its midfield handles transitions. They press in coordinated waves and keep possession under pressure, and that helps to limit openings for counter-attacks.
- Wide Play and Transition Threats: Miami’s open spaces on the flanks match up with Seattle’s preferred approach of quick switches and direct runs. This plays directly into the strengths of their wide players.
- Player to Watch: Jordan Morris gives Seattle a reliable outlet in transition. His timing and acceleration on the wing could cause issues for a Miami defense that has looked really disorganized when asked to track runners across space.
Betting Markets & Live Odds
Wanna throw some money on this one? Here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel! Don’t forget to check them closer to kickoff, as they can and do change!
Moneyline (3-way)
- Inter Miami -105
- Draw +270
- Seattle Sounders +250
Both Teams to Score
- Yes -220
- No +168
Over/Under
- Over 3.5 (+128)
- Under 3.5 (-152)
Betting on Inter Miami vs Seattle? Compare odds, spreads, and props with our top sports betting sites to maximize value.
Analysis of Each Market
- Moneyline: Inter Miami is listed as the narrow favorite, but the line leaves room for Seattle at +250. Given Miami’s recent form and absence of Suárez, the value sits with the visitors if you think that their structure can hang in there for over 90 minutes.
- Totals (Over/Under 3.5): Sportsbooks are expecting fewer goals, and the Under is priced at −152. But the Over at +128 has some appeal, especially considering Miami’s defensive issues and Seattle’s ability to convert in transition.
- BTTS (Yes/No): The Yes side is heavily favored at −220, which lines up with the data. Miami has conceded in eight of its last 10, and Seattle has scored in nine of 10. The likelihood of both sides finding the net? It’s pretty high!
Our Best Bets
We’ve looked at the market, studied the data, and come up with four angles that make the most sense. Here are what we feel are the four best bets!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Inter Miami -105 | Miami has been strong at Chase Stadium all season, and with Messi back in the lineup, they should have the edge over Seattle, which hasn’t traveled well. | 4/5 (Medium-High) |
Over 3.5 (+128) | Both teams push numbers forward and leave space at the back. If either side scores early, it could turn into a shootout. | 3/5 (Medium) |
BTTS: Yes (−220) | Neither defense has been reliable, and both attacks usually find a way through. Recent matches from each team point strongly to goals both ways. | 4/5 (Medium-High) |
Seattle +0.5 Handicap (Even) | A hedge if Miami underperforms. Seattle has a decent track record of picking up results on the road when they’ve been underestimated. | 3/5 (Medium) |
Value & Risks
- Value Angles: Over 3.5 at +128 comes with a strong upside when you think about Miami’s defensive issues and Seattle’s regular movement in the final third. Seattle moneyline (+240) is a solid play for those backing the more organized side.
- Key Risks: If Seattle scores first, Miami could run into some problems maintaining control without a forward to stretch the defense or relieve pressure on the ball. Seattle has the structure to kill off momentum, slow down attacking buildup, and play the match how they want to.
Miami’s Redemption or Seattle’s Repeat?
Final Score Prediction: Inter Miami 2-1 Seattle Sounders
We are going with Miami to win this one. Why? Because there is no way that Messi will have another game like his last two, it doesn’t make sense to us as rational Messi observers.
And when you add in the last time they played Seattle and factor in the post-game melee? Yeah, Miami is not gonna mess around. Yes, Seattle has been playing really well, but they’re traveling and haven’t had much rest.
There’s a very strong case to be made for goals on both sides, and the BTTS is priced like it’s a foregone conclusion. The BTTS and Over 3.5 combo covers most outcomes if the match opens up. And for those who are fading Miami’s current form, Seattle at +240 is a live underdog that’s definitely worth considering!
Best Bets Recap
- BTTS – Yes (−215): ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over 3.5 Total Goals (+132): ⭐⭐⭐
- Seattle Moneyline (+240): ⭐⭐
- BTTS + Over 3.5 (Combo): ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buccaneers vs. Texans Preview and Prediction for September 15, 2025)
Week 2 of Monday Night Football is here, and who’s on the schedule? That would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. the Houston Texans.
The Texans are playing host to the Bucs at the NRG Stadium in Houston, and kickoff is at 8:15 pm ET.
The Bucs beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, and they want to bump that number up to 2-0 with a road win. The Texans are 0-1 after losing to the LA Rams in their first regular-season game.
Despite being listed as road underdogs against the defending four-time AFC South champions, the Buccaneers have gotten a lot of backing from national analysts going into the prime-time game!
The Texans want to prove that their young quarterback and defense can back it up in a primetime slot. And the Bucs are out to show the world that their Week 1 win wasn’t a one-off and that Baker Mayfield has total command of the offense.
What do we think? Keep reading for the game details, the latest betting odds, a Week 1 recap, main storylines and matchups we’re watching, team stats comparisons, our picks for the three best bets, and our final score prediction!
Game Details
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) vs. Houston Texans (0-1)
- Game Details: Monday, September 15 at 8:15 pm ET
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
- How To Watch: Monday Night Football airs on both ESPN and ABC
Betting Odds
Monday Night Football is prime betting time! Look below for the current odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings, but remember to check them closer to game time bc they could move!
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Buccaneers | +2.5 (-112) | +114 | Over 42.5 (-110) |
Texans | -2.5 (-108) | -135 | Under 42.5 (-110) |
Week 1 Recap
Week 1 was good for the Bucs; they left Atlanta with a win. Houston lost what looked like it could’ve been a winnable game to the Rams.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 23–20 on the road.
- Baker Mayfield ran a late two-minute drill super cleanly and finished the night off with the game-winning drive.
- Rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka caught two touchdowns and gave the Bucs a downfield target that Atlanta never contained.
- The offensive line allowed constant pressure, the rushing attack stalled out, and Mayfield had to get the ball out quickly to avoid getting sacked.

Houston Texans
- Houston lost 14–9 to the Rams; they didn’t score one TD.
- C.J. Stroud threw underneath most of the game, and he missed chances downfield without Christian Kirk on the field.
- Nick Chubb ripped off a couple of really strong runs, but holding calls erased first downs and killed any progress.
- The defense bottled up the Rams for most of the game, but couldn’t finish drives; they gave up third-down conversions that extended possessions.
- The Texans came away with just field goals; they were undone by penalties, red-zone failures, and a depleted wide receiver group.
Main Storylines & Matchups
Tampa Bay is 1–0 and Houston is 0–1, and this game will show us which team holds it together in certain areas and matchups!
- Baker Mayfield kept the Bucs in control against Atlanta; he relied on rookie Emeka Egbuka as a new primary target. His quick release masked some protection issues, but he’ll need more than a few short throws against a quicker defense.
- C.J. Stroud comes off a bad showing versus the Rams, and since Christian Kirk is out, he has to prove he can move the ball vertically and not let drives sputter out.
- Tampa Bay is relying solely on Egbuka because Chris Godwin is sidelined, and the rookie showed that he can stretch defenses from the get-go.
- Houston’s receiver group is really thin; Nico Collins has to perform as a solid WR1, or the Texans will be stuck again.
- Houston’s offensive line has to deal with Vita Vea collapsing the interior and a Buccaneers front that lives for pressure.
- Tampa Bay’s offensive line had a lot of issues in Week 1 and now has to hold up against Will Anderson Jr. and a Texans pass rush that comes with speed off the edge.
- Penalties cost Houston field position and progress in Week 1. Another sloppy game will set a bad precedent.
- Tampa Bay can’t just go through the motions in the opening quarters again. Forcing Mayfield into performing another late rescue job is not sustainable against better NFL teams.
- The Bucs’ secondary will challenge Stroud if he tries to force throws downfield; they’ll dare him to make tight-window completions.
- Houston’s linebackers have to bottle up Tampa Bay’s backs on checkdowns and in protection, or Mayfield will carve them up from underneath.
Team Statistical Comparisons (Early Season + Trends)
How do Tampa Bay and Houston compare when we look at the early-season stats and trends?
Offense
- Buccaneers: They scored 23 points in Week 1; Baker Mayfield threw for 268 yards and engineered the game-winning drive in the final minutes. Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka hauled in 2 TDs, which immediately changed how defenses have to play Tampa. The ground game produced only 88 yards on 3.1 YPC, leaving them dependent on quick passing.
- Texans: They managed to get 9 points in the opener against the Rams and didn’t score a touchdown. C.J. Stroud finished 19-of-33 for 174 yards with no TDs and was sacked four times. Nick Chubb posted 76 yards on the ground, but holding penalties erased any key gains and shut down drives. Houston went 0-for-3 in the red zone.
Defense
- Buccaneers: Tampa Bay allowed 20 points to Atlanta but shored up late, forcing punts on the Falcons’ last two drives. Vita Vea set the pace inside, and the pass rush produced three sacks. Coverage broke down at times on third down, but tightened up in the fourth quarter.
- Texans: Houston held the Rams to 14 points and only 2-of-11 on third down conversions. Will Anderson Jr. posted 1.5 sacks, and the front seven bottled up the run. But two long Rams drives were enough to win the game, and Houston’s offense just wasn’t able to respond.
ATS / Betting Trends
- Buccaneers: Covered as +3.5 road underdogs in Week 1. Under Todd Bowles, Tampa is 6–2 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
- Texans: Closed as 2.5-point home favorites against the Rams and failed to cover the spread. Houston is now 2–7 ATS in its last nine games when favored by a field goal or less.
Totals
- Buccaneers: Their opener went over the total of 40.5; Mayfield’s late drive pushed the combined score to 43.
- Texans: Their game against the Rams stayed under the 41.5 total, finishing at 23.
- Current Line: The total is 42.5. With Houston scoring only 9 points in Week 1 and Tampa struggling to run, oddsmakers are signaling a matchup where defenses can dictate stretches unless turnovers create short fields.
Prediction Scenarios
Sure, Houston can win this game, but only if Stroud cuts way down on mistakes and Chubb sets up manageable downs. Tampa Bay’s best shot comes from Mayfield keeping the offense on schedule, with the defense and special teams dictating field position. Here are the most liked scenarios we predict will happen:
How the Buccaneers Can Win
- Mayfield has to keep the offense moving by using multiple targets instead of locking onto one receiver.
- Tampa Bay’s defensive front needs to collapse the pocket and take advantage of Houston’s penalty problems.
- Special teams could be the game-changer here if the game comes down to field position and late kicks.
How the Texans Can Win
- C.J. Stroud has to play turnover-free football and get the ball out quickly in order to avoid Tampa Bay’s pass rush.
- Nick Chubb needs to move the chains on the ground to open throwing lanes for intermediate routes.
- The defense must force Mayfield into making mistakes and turn short fields into points.
Our Best Bets & Picks
The line has Houston set as the slight favorites, but Tampa Bay looks undervalued in this spot! Here are the three best bets we’re going with:
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Buccaneers +2.5 (-112) | Houston’s offense looked completely out of sync and is missing a few of its main players. Tampa Bay’s defensive front is built to win up front and keep this inside a field goal. | 7/10 |
Buccaneers +114 | Mayfield is coming off a really strong opener, and Houston’s penalty issues plus receiver injuries make them the vulnerable team in this matchup. | 6/10 |
Over 42.5 (-110) | Tampa Bay has opened up its passing attack, and Houston will have to push the ball through the air with a limited backfield. That combo points toward more points than the market expects. | 6/10 |
Prediction: The Buccaneers Get a Road Win
Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Houston Texans 20
Baker Mayfield delivers more than C.J. Stroud, Tampa Bay’s defense forces two turnovers, and Houston fails to finish drives.
Take the Bucs +2.5, the Over 42.5, and a sprinkle on the ML!
The Bucs will take this one! Houston shot itself in the foot so many times against the Rams; there were penalties, missed chances, and not a reliable receiver in sight except for Nico Collins.
Tampa Bay more than proved they can bring it on the field and close out strong; Baker Mayfield ran the two-minute drill like he is a vet QB.
If Mayfield protects the ball and the Bucs’ front keeps Stroud off kilter? That’s enough of an advantage for them to win.
Taking the points with Tampa Bay at +2.5 makes the most sense, and the moneyline is definitely worth a look if you think Mayfield can outplay Stroud.
The total is 42.5, so this game has a better shot at going over than Houston’s opener. Tampa will push the ball, and the Texans will be forced to throw to keep up with them.
Best Bets Recap
- Bucs +2.5: 7/10 confidence
- Over 42.5: 6/10 confidence
- Bucs ML +114: 5/10 confidence
Betting on Buccaneers vs. Texans this Monday night? Compare spreads, totals, and props with our top sports betting sites to lock in the sharpest odds, maximize value, and bet with confidence on trusted platforms.
Top Heisman Trophy Candidates – And How to Bet Them Smart
Betting on the front-runners for the Heisman is not in the same stadium as betting on the national championship. You don’t only need to choose the right team, which is hard enough.
No, you need the right rookie to stay in the race (and not get injured), rack up a lot of highlight numbers, and win over the voters who care just as much about public narratives as they do stats. It’s part skill, part survival of the fittest, and TBH, part popularity contest. This is why the odds board moves faster here than on most other futures markets!
A quarterback nobody has ever heard of in the preseason can be at the top of the list by the time October is here. And a preseason darling can throw a single ugly pick during Monday Night Football when everyone is watching, blow up his odds.
Then you’ve got injuries, viral plays, and the strength of the schedule to contend with, and all of this is what makes Heisman futures fun: you’re not only betting on the talent, you’re betting on timing, hype, and if a player can keep playing his best football.
Who are the Heisman Trophy candidates for 2025? And how should you bet on them? We’ve got all of the details! We are gonna break down the race into tiers. There are the obvious favs, mid-range options who have a good chance, and the longshots that could surprise us all.
Then we’ll get into how to bet on them without messing up your bankroll, how the market works, why odds move the way they do, and the best strategies. Ready? Let’s go!
How the Heisman Trophy Betting Market Works
The Heisman Trophy is a futures market, aka a long-term wager on who will win the award in December. How does it all work? Look below to find out!
What Are Heisman Futures?
Heisman futures are the bets that are placed on a player to win the Heisman Trophy, and it’s months before the winner is chosen. Sportsbooks post odds for dozens of players in the offseason and update them as the season goes on.
The top favorites will usually have “plus” odds (like +300 or +800), which means a bettor wins more than their stake if the player wins. This shows how difficult it is to predict a single winner out of the entire nation. And betting on a longshot can yield a huge profit if they somehow pull off the victory; for a $100 bet at 50:1 odds returns $5,000 profit if it hits.

Because Heisman futures are long-running bets, your money is tied up for months until the award is announced. Odds can change a lot based on weekly performances, injuries, and narrative momentum. Historically, the opening favorite is never a sure thing, as only 1 of the last 10 preseason favorites ended up winning the Heisman. The unpredictability makes the Heisman futures market really challenging and exciting for bettors!
When Odds Shift
Heisman odds never remain static; they change from week to week as players either bolster or hurt their campaigns. One big performance on a national stage can cause a player’s odds to shorten overnight. In Week 1 of 2025, Utah QB Devon Dampier saw his odds improve from +5000 to +2500 after an amazing debut (293 total yards, 3 TDs). And South Carolina’s QB LaNorris Sellers went from a mid-tier outsider to near the top of the odds after looking like “a certified playmaker” in his first start.
Here are the main things that move the odds:
- Breakout games: A huge statistical game or an upset victory can vault a contender up the odds board in one game.
- Injuries: If a frontrunner gets hurt or underperforms, their odds get longer, and others’ odds improve.
- Media hype: High-profile storylines (like having a famous last name *ahem* Manning, or a two-way star) can shorten odds if the media spotlight intensifies.
- Big matchups: Performance in marquee games (rivalry games, top-25 matchups) has an outsized impact. These “Heisman moments” usually make or break candidacies.
Be ready for a lot of volatility. The early season especially allows for big jumps, as one week’s star can become next week’s betting favorite. Tracking line movement is the most important thing here.
Best Places to Bet
Now, let’s talk about where you should bet! Not all sportsbooks treat futures the same, so it definitely pays to shop around. All major online sportsbooks offer Heisman odds (from preseason through late fall), but the odds vary, so always compare lines across apps to get the best payout.
The most popular and legit sportsbooks for college football futures include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars; each one has a Heisman Trophy market year-round. The best sportsbooks also run promotions for futures bettors, like odds boosts or bonus bet offers for signing up.
Always use a legal and trusted site that has competitive odds and features like cash-out options.
Want to place your Heisman bets? You can check out our Best College Football Betting Sites page for the latest sportsbook offers and to compare odds!
2025 Heisman Trophy Favorites & Smart Betting Tips
The 2025 season is already in motion, and there are some names that have separated themselves from the pack as early favorites in the Heisman race. The players below are a mix of elite talent with team situations that set them up for success and big seasons. Here are the three top contenders (with their current approximate odds) and how to bet on them!
Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) | +800

This strong-armed junior has walked into the spotlight as LSU’s new starting quarterback and looks like he’s justified the hype surrounding him.
Nussmeier operates in an explosive LSU offense that led the nation with 45.5 points per game last year, which gives him a platform to put up video-game numbers. He opened the season among the top Heisman candidates and quickly went into pole position after leading LSU to a huge Week 1 win. Bettors are bullish; at BetMGM, he’s currently around +700, making him the national favorite.
- Smart Bet: This is really good value for a preseason front-runner. If you believe in Nussmeier, strike early while his odds are still in the single digits! A strong start in SEC play will likely shrink those odds further, so locking in +700 to +800 now could pay off if he keeps making good. Watch LSU’s big games; if Nuss piles up wins and highlights, you’ll be holding a prime ticket on the favorite.
LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) | +900

For a player who was pretty much unknown nationally a year ago, Sellers has exploded onto the scene as a dual-threat dynamo for the Gamecocks.
The sophomore’s Week 1 performance turned a lot of heads, as he looked like a certified playmaker who was leading South Carolina’s offense. With a big arm and fast feet, Sellers does his best in a system that lets him improvise and go to work. Sportsbooks noticed and slashed his odds from longshot territory to around +1000, and he’s one of the top three or four favorites now.
- Smart Bet: Consider monitoring his first few games and be ready to jump in if he continues to light it up. If Sellers posts highlight-reel plays through Weeks 1–3, his odds could shorten fast. Right now, he has excellent mid-range value; not as short as the top favorite, but with potentially similar upside. This is a case where a mid-tier preseason bet can turn golden if the hype keeps building. Just be aware that South Carolina’s schedule gets harder later on; ideally, you should grab his odds before any major showcase games that could spike his price are played.
Carson Beck (Miami, FL) | +1200

The transfer portal has given Miami a shot in the arm with Carson Beck under center. The former Georgia quarterback committed to Miami for his final season, and he comes in as a vet with big-game experience (Beck threw for over 7,400 yards as a two-year starter at Georgia, including a playoff run).
Now he has a brand new start with the Hurricanes and a bevy of playmakers at the skill positions. The transfer and Miami’s ACC title aspirations have made Beck a really popular futures pick (around +1100 odds ).
- Smart Bet: One creative approach here would be a correlated parlay, like betting Beck to win the Heisman plus Miami to win the ACC. If Beck excels to Heisman level, Miami will likely have a championship-caliber season in the conference. Parlaying those outcomes boosts your return a ton (just make sure that your sportsbook allows futures parlays). You could also take Beck straight up now if you believe in his talent; his odds could drop if Miami starts strong. But don’t forget that his Heisman case will rely on team success; any misstep in Miami’s record could hurt his chances.
Mid-Tier Heisman Contenders to Watch
Going into the mid-tier contenders, we have some players who could crash the Heisman party. The players currently have odds in the +1400 to +2000 range; they aren’t front-runners, but they are still very much in the hunt if things break right. The smartest bettors know that this tier can produce finalists (or winners) who were under the radar in August. Below are the four names to know and how to bet them!
Stepping into the starting role for the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs, Stockton inherits both huge expectations and an elite supporting cast. The former blue-chip recruit has some pretty big shoes to fill, but he hasn’t wasted any time showing off his potential; in Georgia’s opener, he tallied four touchdowns (2 passing, 2 rushing), and that means he can be the next star in Athens. Georgia’s offense is loaded, and if Stockton does well, he’ll get Heisman talk playing for a top-5 team.
- Smart Bet: Bet early in the season before Georgia’s marquee matchups (like their rivalry games or SEC Championship) when his odds could shorten. Right now, at ~15:1, he’s a solid value play. The rationale for this is that if Georgia keeps winning and Stockton posts gaudy stats, oddsmakers will quickly adjust. By getting in now, you benefit from any “big-stage” bumps later. Watch Georgia’s offense; if they appear more run-heavy or if Stockton is having a hard time, you should hold off. But given the upside? An early small wager is definitely justified.
Yes, there is another Manning, and the last name comes with heaps more pressure in college football. Now at Texas, Arch Manning (the nephew of Peyton and Eli) is navigating sky-high expectations as a former No. 1 recruit.
The media magnetism around him is insane; he opened as a preseason co-favorite around +650 before he even took a snap. But there have been early missteps (like a Week 1 loss where he looked like a human instead of a Manning), which caused his odds to head into the +1300–+1600 range. The volatility shows both the risk and reward of backing Arch. He has immense talent and the Texas brand behind him, but is also inexperienced as a first-time starter.
- Smart Bet: Treat Manning as a high-variance play. One strategy is to wait and only bet after he has a statement win or monster game; sure, the odds will be shorter then, but you’ll have more certainty that he can live up to the hype. And if you bet him early at longer odds, plan a hedging strategy for the late season. If Arch is a finalist, you could hedge by betting on the other top contender to guarantee some profit. Also, given Texas’s move to the SEC, think about pairing an Arch bet with a Texas conference/title future (or playoff future) as a hedge. And if he falls short of the Heisman but the team wins, your other bet could pay off. Manning’s path here is boom-or-bust, so you have to manage your risk accordingly.
This is a name that Oklahoma fans know really well, and Mateer is emerging nationally after taking over the Sooners’ offense. The double-threat junior transferred from Washington State and has already made a big impact at OU. In an early marquee win over Michigan, Mateer showcased his versatility: 270 passing yards plus 74 rushing yards and 2 TDs on the ground. That kind of playmaking ability, when it’s combined with Oklahoma’s perennial contention, gives Mateer real Heisman upside. Sportsbooks had him near the top at +800 after Week 2 (essentially a co-favorite), and that shows his rapid ascent.
- Smart Bet: If you didn’t grab Mateer’s odds in the offseason, you might wait for a short-term dip; maybe he has a quieter game or two, and then bet before a major spotlight game. The annual Red River Rivalry (OU vs Texas) is a mid-season showdown that usually produces a Heisman moment. If Mateer is playing well going into that game, think about betting him before it, as a big performance there could catapult him to front-runner status, shrinking his odds way down. Use the schedule to your advantage: identify a window to buy in, then possibly cash out or hedge later if he’s in the finalist conversation!
A year ago, Klubnik was Clemson’s next big thing, but a turbulent 2024 season (with offensive struggles) killed his hype. Now the talented junior is looking for redemption, and we’ll see how it plays out.
Clemson has reportedly retooled its offense for 2025, and if Klubnik finds his groove, he has the pedigree to get back in the Heisman chatter. He was among the top preseason candidates before, and some sportsbooks still opened him around +900. But bettors got cold feet; after a lackluster opener this year, Klubnik’s odds moved, and he went down on the board of contenders.
- Smart Bet: Do not wager on Klubnik until you see some proof that Clemson’s offense has turned the corner. The first couple of games will be very telling, so watch Clemson’s scoring and Cade’s stat lines. If the Tigers’ new scheme sparks a return to form (like multiple 300+ yard games and big wins), then investing at his longer odds could be smart, as a turnaround narrative could pick up steam. But if the struggles continue, it’s best to steer clear. Klubnik should only be a conditional bet: pull the trigger if early results show there’s been improvement. There’s upside here, but it hinges totally on Clemson’s offensive trajectory.
Value Bets & Potential Breakout Picks
One of the best things about Heisman betting is finding that longer-odds player who could surprise everyone. They are the players outside of the top tier (usually +1800 and above) who have the talent to mount a serious campaign if things go right. They are flying under the radar for now, but a few big games? It could send their stock soaring (and make your longshot ticket super valuable). Let’s take a look at some of the value bets and dark horse candidates, and we also have tips for how to bet them!
It’s really rare for a wide receiver to be a Heisman frontrunner, but this Ohio State freshman is cut from a special cloth. Smith came to Columbus as the nation’s #1 receiver recruit, and he’s wasting no time showing why.
At 6’3″ with game-breaking speed, he’s already making highlight catches that have Buckeye fans (and bettors) talking. Sportsbooks list him around 16:1 to 18:1, which is the highest among non-QBs. Why all of the optimism? Because Ohio State’s offense is a factory for huge receiving numbers, and if Smith puts up big stats, he could follow the path of DeVonta Smith (who won in 2020 as a WR).
- Smart Bet: This is one of the best true longshot values on the board. As a receiver, Smith will need extraordinary performances (like one-handed touchdowns, multiple 200-yard games, viral highlights) to sway voters, but he has that capability. Betting him at +1800 is a bet that he could be the breakout star of 2025. A smart approach is to pair his Heisman bet with Ohio State to win the Big Ten or make the playoff; if Smith is in Heisman contention, Ohio State is probably having a great season, so a conference title bet on OSU leverages that correlation. And Smith has been attracting a lot of early betting action (a sportsbook reported he already accounts for almost 9% of Heisman tickets, which is a top-3 figure). This means that a lot of people believe he’s the rare WR that is worth the risk. If you agree, get the odds before they shorten any further!
Say hello to the freshman phenom who’s generating serious buzz in Gainesville. DJ Lagway was a five-star recruit and, after an injury to Florida’s veteran QB last year, he stepped in and showed his star potential (he set a school passing record in one outing).
Now a sophomore, Lagway is penciled in as the Gators’ starter and already making moves; he won the job with a strong fall camp and has a burgeoning NIL profile to match his talent. His skillset? A huge arm, mobility, and a fearless mentality that’s reminiscent of Tim Tebow’s early days. But since he’s still a young player, consistency is the concern here.
- Smart Bet: Caution and timing are super important with Lagway. Florida opens the season with manageable games, so wait through the first few weeks to see how Lagway performs as “the guy.” If he comes out firing (like 4 TDs, instant highlight plays), his current +2000 odds will probably drop, and you’ll want to grab whatever value is left. If he has a hard time, you should hold off entirely or look for a longer number later. Use the first few games as your litmus test. Lagway has an immense upside, and it’s enough to possibly crash the Heisman party as an underclassman, but with freshmen QBs, volatility is really high. Think about a small bet if he passes the test, and be ready for a week-to-week watch.
A prototypical pro-style quarterback with a rocket arm, Allar is entering his second year as Penn State’s starter and could be ready for a jump. He has the pedigree (he’s a former 5-star recruit) and has shown moments of brilliance as a sophomore.
Now in his junior year, he also benefits from playing behind an elite defense, which means more wins (a 10-2 or 11-1 PSU team would bolster his resume). Through the first few weeks of 2025, Allar has put up good numbers, keeping him in the middle of the Heisman odds pack. The big opportunities for him are ahead on the schedule: showdowns with Michigan and Ohio State.
- Smart Bet: If you like Allar, the strategy is to bet before Penn State’s marquee games. His current 20:1 odds could go up (shrink) if he were to knock off a powerhouse like Ohio State while having a big day. If Allar throws 4 TDs in a win over Michigan, he’d be among the top candidates overnight. When you bet beforehand, you are grabbing the value before the odds react. But if PSU loses those games, Allar’s Heisman hopes likely go away. So this is a boom-or-bust wager that’s tied to a couple of key dates. You could take a wait-and-see approach and only bet Allar if Penn State wins one of those big games and he breaks out, but the odds won’t be as generous. Allar is a calculated gamble, and he’s one that could pay off big if Penn State finally breaks through. If you bet him now, think about hedging later against other top contenders, especially if PSU is still in the hunt late in the season.
Next up, we have a trio of talented quarterbacks in the +2200 range, and each has the potential to post eye-popping stats in 2025. Dampier, Moore, and Arnold are all former highly rated recruits who are now running explosive offenses, which makes them prime “stat monster” candidates!
Devon Dampier (Utah)
A junior who transferred from New Mexico, Dampier has taken the reins of Utah’s offense and immediately impressed. In his first start, he completed 21 of 25 passes and totaled 3 TDs, showing his accuracy and running ability. Utah’s move to the Big 12 has put them in a lot of high-scoring games, and Dampier is capitalizing on it. His Week 1 performance was so good that oddsmakers halved his odds from 50/1 to 25/1, so he could be the most slept-on QB in the country.
Dante Moore (Oregon)
Dante Moore is a former five-star who transferred in and has Oregon’s high-octane offense at his fingertips. Early returns are great; through two weeks, he’s tossed multiple touchdowns and energized the Ducks. Playing in the Pac-12 (which has produced recent Heisman QBs), Moore has more than enough chances for huge stat lines. If Oregon contends for the Pac-12 title and Moore lights up defenses, he’ll get a lot of national love.
Jackson Arnold (Auburn)
Previously an Oklahoma backup, Arnold transferred to Auburn and brought new hope to the Plains. Under coach Hugh Freeze’s quarterback-friendly system, Arnold’s strong arm and mobility are doing really well. In his first start for Auburn, he threw for 300+ yards with a couple of scores, and that validated the offseason hype. Auburn might not be a top SEC team yet, but it will build the offense around Arnold’s skills. If he racks up numbers against SEC defenses, he’ll make his way into the conversation.
- Smart Bet: These three players are in similar boats odds-wise, so the best move is to “sprinkle” small units on each rather than a big bet on one. At ~22:1 odds, a modest bet can give you a nice payout. If you invest a little in all three, you’re diversifying your longshot portfolio and increasing the chance that one of them hits it big. All players have a strong upside: Dampier has the dual-threat wow factor, Moore has the brand-name program and stats, and Arnold has the SEC stage and talent. Hitting on even one of them would more than make up for misses on the others. Or you could pick your favorite of the trio if one situation looks better. But from a value perspective? Spreading out your bets among the high-ceiling longshots is a sound approach. The odds are strong, and you don’t need to wager much to possibly win a lot!
Deep Sleepers Worth a Look
Now it’s time to venture into the real dark horse territory; these are the players with odds in the +2500 to +5000 range (25/1 to 50/1 or more). The names are long shots for a reason, but all of them have a scenario where they could at least enter the Heisman talk. Look at these as the lottery tickets that have a plausible chance of hitting. If you’re the type of bettor who loves to chase after big paydays, here are some deep sleepers that are worth a look!
Julian Sayin (Ohio State): The former five-star who transferred from Alabama. If he wins the Buckeyes’ job and delivers in primetime games against Notre Dame, Penn State, or Michigan? His odds could be cut in half.
CJ Carr (Notre Dame): A redshirt freshman with the name recognition. If Notre Dame opens hot and Carr looks the part, the media attention will follow.
Thomas Castellanos (Florida State): A transfer from Boston College who has FSU’s roster around him, so an early undefeated run would move him from longshot to contender.
- Smart Bet: Small-unit bets only! Each has a shot to surge if September goes their way, but the variance is huge.
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame): PFF graded him as one of the top backs in the country last season, and he’s now the Irish feature runner. Running backs hardly ever win, but if ND is a playoff team and Love posts 2,000+ scrimmage yards, he’ll be in the conversation.
Joey Aguilar (QB, Tennessee): The sixth-year senior who transferred through JUCO, App State, and UCLA before landing in Knoxville. Tennessee’s system churns out QB stats; if Aguilar does well and knocks off Georgia or Alabama, his number collapses.
- Smart Bet: Love has the talent to be the rare RB in the race; Aguilar has the system and schedule. Both belong in the “fun flier” category, so don’t overextend on either one of them.
Bryce Underwood (Michigan): The No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class. If Michigan hands him the job and he delivers right away? His price won’t last. Freshman QBs almost never win, but the talent cannot be denied.
Ty Simpson (Alabama): A former five-star who’s waited behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. If he finally starts and Alabama is in contention, the exposure alone gives him a shot.
- Smart Bet: These are all pure hedges. If you’ve already bet a favorite, tossing a small wager here can cover the “what if” scenario of a Michigan freshman or an Alabama starter heating up.
Longshot Lottery Tickets
And now for the ultra-long odds plays. None of them are serious contenders today, but a hot start or a viral moment? They could gain some traction!
- Ryan Williams (WR, Alabama) | +5500: A freshman receiver with huge expectations, but he would need a DeVonta Smith-type season to even get near the ballot.
- Jalon Daniels (QB, Kansas) | +6000: Amazing when he’s healthy, so if he can stay on the field, his numbers could pop, but the team’s record will hold him back.
- Beau Pribula (QB, Missouri) / Josh Hoover (QB, TCU) | +7500: Both quarterbacks play in high-volume passing systems, and the odds show that they get limited national spotlight.
- Demond Williams Jr. (QB, Washington) | +9000: The athletic sophomore is taking over at Washington and will need team success and big stats to be in contention.
- Kaidon Salter (QB, Colorado) | +10000: Salter is a transfer with proven production at Liberty. He’s now under Deion Sanders, but Colorado has to go above and by one expectations.
Smart Bet Tip: Keep these wagers small; they’re best used for parlays or as hedges if you already have a ticket on a front-runner!
Betting Strategy: Maximize Your Heisman ROI
Getting a Heisman pick is a rare thing, but you can make better bets with knowledge about timing, coverage, and using the tools that the sportsbooks already give you!
- Start Early, Cash In Late: Preseason and early-season odds are where the biggest prices live. If your player goes up the board, look at cash-out options or partial hedges before the field narrows.
- Hedge in November: By the last few weeks, the race is usually down to two or three names. If your ticket is still alive, add small bets on the closest challengers so you end December with a profit, no matter who wins!
- Tie Player to Team Futures: Heisman winners almost always come from teams in playoff contention. Pair your bet with a conference title or CFP ticket from the same program to multiply your returns.
- Use Sportsbook Features: Don’t settle for just one sportsbook! Compare odds, take odds boosts when they are offered, and use early cashout or profit-boost promos to squeeze all of the extra value you can from your positions.
The Heisman Hopefuls You Need to Bet On Now
The 2025 Heisman Trophy race has a lot of names on the board, but only a handful of them are worth taking seriously when it comes to betting!
Some players already have odds that show their position, the others are hovering in a no-man’s land middle area where one game can change it all, and then there are the longshots that are only worth pocket-change wagers.
Here’s a quick recap of the names that are either already in the conversation or could be a part of it soon:
- Garrett Nussmeier and LaNorris Sellers are headlining the early Heisman futures board.
- Arch Manning and Carson Beck are priced in the middle tier with upside that is tied to team success.
- Jeremiah Smith and select double-threat QBs have value at longer numbers.
- Time your wagers around marquee games and use hedging if your pick is still alive in November.
- Shop around for the best prices at sportsbooks and take advantage of boosts or cash-out features when they are available!
