Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Betting Picks (November 27th, 2025)
The Green Bay Packers will continue to make their push for first place in the NFC North on Thanksgiving Day, where they will be +120 underdogs against the Detroit Lions.
The NFC North is still up for grabs, as the Chicago Bears are just a game ahead of both of these teams. Detroit may be more desperate in this one, however, as they already rank third within the division and a loss here would put them even further behind in the pecking order.
Green Bay does have a stout 3-1 road record and one of the best defenses in the NFL, so they could threaten the 2.5-point spread and potentially upset the Lions.
Not sure how to bet on this game? I’ll walk you through the odds and key matchups as I touch on my preferred bets and get to my Packers vs. Lions prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Thursday, November 27th, 2025 | Kickoff at 1:00 pm ET (FOX) at Ford Field in Detroit, MI
- Team records entering the game:
- Packers: 7-3-1
- Lions: 7-4
- Odds (from ESPN Bet)
- Spread: Panthers +3 (-120) | 49ers -3 (EVEN)
- Moneyline: Packers (+135) | Lions (-155)
- Total: Over 48.5 (-105) | Under 48.5 (-115)
The point spread has the Lions as home favorites in a tense divisional rivalry game. The pricing looks fair, especially since Detroit is 4-1 at home and needs to win this game.
The moneyline is also priced fairly. The oddsmakers are respecting the Packers as a legit threat to keep this game close or even win, but favor Detroit at home in a must-win game.
The game total suggests we’ll get a fair amount of scoring in this one. Green Bay’s defense has been tough, but both offenses are capable of getting hot.
Storylines to Watch
The most obvious storyline is simply who will win this game, since there is a three-team race atop the NFC North right now.
Detroit got stomped by the Packers back in week one, so it’s absolutely crucial that they win this game to even the series. A loss would drop them two full games out of first place and would hand a season sweep to their arch rivals.
Here’s a look at some other key storylines to monitor for this showdown:
- Jammo’d Up: Lions deep threat Jameson Williams had been exploding recently, but got shutout (0 catches on 3 targets last week) against the Giants. It will be interesting to see how much Detroit works to get him involved against a good Packers pass defense.
- Unlocking Gibbs: Green Bay made it their mission to stop Jahmyr Gibbs back in week one, when they bottled him up in an easy win. Coming off his best game of the year, whether or not the Packers can deliver a repeat performance could decide the outcome of this game.
- Handing Off: Packers quarterback Jordan Love has been banged up with shoulder and thumb injuries, with the latter leading to some awkward hand-offs. Could his new hand-off style lead to an untimely fumble in a key moment?
Team Profiles
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have been up and down all year, as they beat these same Lions in week one and ultimately got off to a nice 2-0 start. Everyone was crowning them as Super Bowl champs with Micah Parsons in tow, but they followed that up with a loss in Cleveland and a tie in Dallas.
Despite a few games where their offense sputtered, Green Bay has a strong 7-3-1 record, they boast what looks like an elite defense, and their losses have come by a combined nine points.
Green Bay still has the makings of a title contender if they can heat up and start playing more complete games. Here’s a quick look at where they’ve specifically stood out in 2025:
- Inside the 20: Green Bay had some rough patches in the red-zone recently, but on the year they’ve been fantastic. They’ve converted almost 66% of their RZ scoring opportunities, good for 6th in the NFL.
- Splash Plays: Green Bay is middle of the pack in terms of yardage generated, but they can flip the field in an instant through the air. They have plenty of speed and currently rank 6th in yards per pass (7.7).
- No Run Zone: Green Bay has a strong scoring defense and an effective pass rush, but they’ve really stifled opposing rushing attacks. They rank 7th in yards per rush and 6th in rushing yards allowed per contest.
Detroit Lions
The Lions did not start their 2025 season off as planned, but they sure did bounce back in a big way, as they hung 52 points on the Bears in week two. Detroit has looked pretty good ever since, going 6-3 since that brutal opener.
Detroit has had enough ups and downs to force head coach Dan Campbell to take over offensive playcalling duties, but it’s hard to complain when you look at the team’s record and production.
They’re looking at an extremely important game on Thanksgiving Day, but the Lions are in position to make another run this year. Here’s a look at what has made them so good:
- Ground Control: The Lions are the rare team that actually passes way more than they run, but are still dominant on the ground. Having Gibbs will do that, as Detroit ranks 2nd in yards per rush and 3rd in rushing yards (139.8) per game.
- Scoring Onslaught: In addition to their strong ground game, Detroit’s passing volume has also led them to the league’s 8th-best passing offense, while they can hurt you down the field (5th in yards per pass) as well.
- Sack Attack: Having a healthy Aidan Hutchinson has been huge for Detroit’s pass rush. The star defensive end has 8.5 sacks already, contributing to the Lions’ 5th-ranked pass rush.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Packers vs. Lions matchups:
- Detroit’s offense vs. Green Bay’s defense: Pick your poison. By the numbers, Green Bay is very good against both the pass and run, and they boast the league’s 5th best scoring defense (18.5 ppg allowed). Detroit, meanwhile, scores over 29 points weekly (2nd) and is elite in every facet offensively.
- Green Bay’s RZ offense vs. Detroit’s RZ defense: If this turns into a shootout, the Packers have a clear edge when they get into scoring position. They finish the job at a 65.91% rate inside the 20, while Detroit ranks 25th at stopping red-zone scores.
- Turnover Battle: Green Bay has come on lately in the turnover department, but they’ve struggled to get takeaways all year (22nd). Detroit, meanwhile, averages 1.2 (11th) per game. Both teams are extra careful with the ball, however, ranking 2nd and 3rd, respectively.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Lions vs. Packers odds, per ESPN Bet:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Packers | +3 (-120) | +135 | Over 48.5 (-105) |
Lions | -3 (EVEN) | -155 | Under 48.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: All the action is on the Lions right now, with 78% of the bets backing Detroit and the Lions getting 76% of the money.
- Record History: This is a very storied rivalry, with the Packers holding a 107-78-7 lifetime edge. They won the last meeting (27-13) in week one, but Detroit swept the season series in 2024.
- ATS Tidbits: Green Bay has been bad (4-7) against the spread overall, but they are 2-0 ATS inside the NFC North. Detroit has been a respectable 6-5 against the spread, are 5-2 ATS when favored, and are 3-2 against the spread at home.
Best Bets for Packers vs. Lions
Pick 1: Lions ML (-155) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Detroit is going to have a rebuttal for that embarrassing week one loss. More importantly, they’re at home and they’re the more desperate team. They also happen to be stacked offensively and have flashed far more upside.
Risks/What to Watch
It’s an NFC North game, and the Packers are hoping to return the favor of a sweep. Green Bay wants the division, too, and a loss here doesn’t help them get that. This can be a statement win for the Packers to prove they are legit.
Pick 2: Over 48.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The offensive ceiling for both teams is pretty high. Green Bay has a strong scoring defense, but they do still bend quite a bit. Detroit also puts up almost 30 points per game. Completely shutting them down a second time feels unlikely. Put these teams together in a huge game, and we have an Over bet.
Risks/What to Watch
It’s always possible Micah Parsons wrecks this game, and this thing leans more into Green Bay’s defense than Lions fans would prefer.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Jordan Love 2+ Passing Touchdowns (-106) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Detroit’s run defense is pretty good, and Green Bay’s ground game isn’t always that reliable. On the road and on a short week, I think Green Bay’s chances hang on Jordan Love. He’s done quite well in this matchup before, and whether he torches them early or pads his stats late, I like him to toss 2+ scores.
Risks/What to Watch
Josh Jacobs is back for this game, and Green Bay (5th in rushing TDs per game) loves to run inside the 20. If they can’t convert through the air, it’s entirely possible this is a Josh Jacobs game, and Love fails to deliver.
Packers vs. Lions odds can shift quickly — track line moves, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Lions Even Series, Stay in NFC North Race
My favorite Packers vs. Lions prediction is that Detroit is coming away with a win. The game is on their home turf, they are loaded with explosive weapons, and they really can’t afford to lose this game.
Detroit is also probably amped up from the announced return of previously retired center Frank Ragnow, so the stadium will be louder than ever.
Green Bay probably won’t go down without a fight, and I do think Jordan Love can have a big game as the Packers still show they are not that far off from the mighty Lions. That gets us the Over, and all three of our Lions vs. Packers picks can hit.
Final Score Prediction: Lions 30, Packers 27
