Navy vs. Memphis Prediction & Betting Picks (November 27th, 2025)
One of the biggest week 14 college football matchups goes down in Memphis, Tennessee, where the Memphis Tigers will play host to the Navy Midshipmen. Navy will enter as a +150 underdog on the road, even though they are still in play to win the AAC.
A lot is on the line in this one, making it tough to come to a Navy vs. Memphis prediction. The pricing is rather favorable no matter which way you lean, however, as the game has a mild 4-point spread and a very attractive 57.5 total.
College football bettors should be anticipating a close game with shootout potential, while both teams will be eager to get the win for different reasons. Wondering which bet is the right one to make? Join me as I dissect the latest odds and go over the key matchups en route to my favorite Navy vs. Memphis picks.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Navy Midshipmen (8-2) vs. Memphis Tigers (8-3)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 26th, with kickoff at 6:30 pm CT (7:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Team Record
- Navy is 8-2, 6-1 in the AAC.
- Memphis is 8-3, 4-3 in the AAC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Navy vs. Memphis odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Navy | +3.5 (-108) | +145 | Over 57.5 (-115) |
Memphis | -3.5 (-112) | -175 | Under 57.5 (-105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is not a storied rivalry, as Navy has only been in the AAC since 2015 and Memphis got here the year before (2014). That’s played into these teams meeting just 10 times total, with the Tigers holding a narrow 6-4 series edge.
It was Navy who stole the most recent meeting, however, as the Midshipmen won a wild 56-44 shootout last year. Memphis won each of the five games before that, but the 2023 battle was pretty tight (28-24).
This game will be played in Memphis, where the Tigers are 4-1 on the year and have gone 4-1 lifetime against Navy in this matchup.
Why This Game Matters
This is a massive game for both teams. Memphis no longer can win the AAC at this point, but a win will still help them secure a good bowl game. Navy, meanwhile, is in a three-way tie for first place in the conference.
A win here could get Navy into the AAC title game, which would put them a win from playing in the College Football Playoff.
Team Profiles
Navy Midshipmen
Navy has enjoyed a stellar 2025 season, going 8-2 overall and 6-1 within the AAC. Their only conference loss came to North Texas, and their only other defeat was against Notre Dame.
Both losses were not particularly close, with the team’s one-dimensional offense really being exposed versus the Fighting Irish, especially.
That said, Navy is quite dominant on the ground, and when they can enforce their will in that regard, they are very tough to beat. Here’s a quick look at where they’ve stood out on the year:
- Run Like Crazy: Navy wants to run as much as possible. They have a ridiculous 75% rush rate (3rd in the nation) and they parlay that volume into the top-ranked ground game (290.9 rushing yards per game) in the country.
- Splash Plays: While the Midshipmen want to dominate on the ground, they actually make a lot of splash plays down the field. Quarterback Blake Horvath has only attempted 122 passes all season, but he has a 23+ yard pass play in every single game, contributing to the nation’s highest yards per pass average (10.1).
- Finish the Job: Navy is pretty good at finishing scoring drives once they get inside the 20. They currently rank 58th in the country with a solid 86% red-zone scoring rate.
Memphis Tigers
The Tigers are infinitely more balanced than Navy by default. They don’t have as good of a record and won’t play for the AAC championship, but you could certainly argue they’re the better team.
Memphis got off to a blazing 6-0 start to begin the 2025 season, with a 31-24 loss to UAB being their first loss. They bounced back with wins over South Florida and Rice, only to collapse by losing tight games against Tulane and East Carolina over the past two games.
Those aren’t terrible losses within a competitive conference, but they came at the worst possible time.
Here’s a quick look at where Memphis excels right now:
- Protect the Ball: Memphis doesn’t turn the ball over very much. They rank 59th in interception rate and 12th in giveaways per game.
- Ground Control: The Tigers aren’t as high-volume rush offense like Navy, which makes their 187.9 yards per game on the ground (28th) arguably even more impressive. Their 5.0 yards per carry average ranks 24th in the nation, too.
- Unstoppable: Memphis has a very balanced offense that moves the ball at will. Even better? They almost always finish the job once inside the 20. Navy is good in that regard, but the Tigers convert on over 95% of their red-zone trips (4th!).
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Navy vs. Memphis matchups:
- Navy’s rushing offense vs. Memphis’ run defense: This is easily the key to the game, as the Midshipmen run at an alarming rate. They need to succeed on the ground to compete, while they happen to be running into the country’s 33rd-best run defense.
- Conversion Battle: Both of these teams are very good at scoring once they get within striking distance. The natural edge lies with Memphis, as they’re better at finishing drives, and they also happen to have a nasty red-zone defense (18th in the nation).
- Eli Heidenreich vs. Memphis secondary: Horvath isn’t going to throw a ton, but Eli Heidenrich can make the most of the passes that do get put in the air (19.5 yards per catch). How successful he is when he gets targeted could be key against a defense that is not elite (7.4 yards per play allowed) and only generates a 4.25% sack rate (116th).
Betting Insights & Trends
Memphis has won four of the last five games in this series at home and are 4-1 at home in 2025. The Tigers have also been very good against the spread (8-3), going 6-2 ATS as the favorite and 4-1 ATS at home.
Navy has not been good against the spread (3-7), as they are just 1-2 ATS as the underdog, 1-3 against the spread on the road, and 2-5 against the spread in the AAC.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my favorite Navy vs. Memphis picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 57.5 (-115) | These are two very good offenses, with both putting up 30+ points per game and also springing big plays regularly. I smell a shootout. | 8/10 |
Navy ATS +3.5 (-108) | Memphis is without a doubt the more complete team, and they’re at home, but Navy is dominant on the ground and has more to play for. They could easily control this game or at least keep it from getting out of hand. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Alex Tecza Anytime TD (-115) | Horvath is the much safer bet (-300), but Tecza has 8 total TDs on the year and has a score in six different games. Given the game total, he’s a solid bet to punch one in. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 57.5 (-115)
- Secondary Pick: Navy ATS +5.5 (-112)
There is going to be a lot of scoring in this game. You could argue for one side or the other – especially since Memphis does have a good defense – but it’s likely we simply get a shootout.
Navy has a ton to play for and can enforce their will on the ground. A Memphis win could still happen and is something you can target, but I’d be betting on a close game.
Lastly, Navy’s production largely comes on the ground, so we can bet on top running back Alex Tecza finding the endzone. He’s not as safe of a bet as quarterback Blake Horvath, but he offers a better price and is still a very logical play.
Navy vs. Memphis odds can shift quickly — monitor every line move, compare spreads and totals, and secure the best value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Sometimes even the best wagers don’t deliver. Here are some reasons why my Navy vs. Memphis bets could fail:
- One-Dimensional: Navy runs at an absurd 75% clip. If they are not successful on the ground, they could be in serious trouble. That could impact the game total.
- Home Cooking: Memphis plays well at home and has won here a lot in the series. It’s always possible they show up and show out at home against a rival.
- Pie Chart: Tecza is a key player in the Navy offense, but Blake Horvath controls their system and gets more scoring opportunities on average. At -300 to score, it’s not crazy to think he hogs the spotlight and kills our TD bet.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Navy 34, Memphis 31
My main Navy vs. Memphis prediction is that this game hits the Over. Both offenses are capable of producing big plays and plenty of points, which should equate to a back-and-forth shootout.
That wouldn’t be any different than recent games for both teams. Navy is fresh off a wild 41-38 victory, while each of their last two games hit this Over. The same can be said for Memphis, who hit this Over in three of their last four games.
Not into the Over? Hammer Navy against the spread. I think they win this game to keep themselves in the conversation for the AAC title game. If you don’t want to go that far, bet on Tecza to punch one in – although I love all three Navy vs. Memphis picks to get the job done.
