Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Prediction & Betting Picks (November 19, 2025)
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there is another huge game in the MAC, this time with Miami Ohio as mild 1.5-point road favorites.
The race for the 2025 MAC title is officially on, as WMU has a narrow one-game lead and a whopping five teams are stuck in a second palace tie at 4-2 in the conference.
Both Miami Ohio and Buffalo are among them. Their season records don’t blow you away, but the winner is one step closer to storming the MAC castle, while the loser can kiss a bowl game goodbye.
The spread and moneyline have this game projected as a borderline pick’em, while a weak 39.5 game total suggests a defensive slugfest could ensue.
Not sure how to bet on this massive MAC clash? I’ll take a closer look at the odds and key matchups before delivering my top picks and ultimate Miami Ohio vs. Buffalo prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Miami Ohio (5-5) vs. Buffalo (5-5)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 19th, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: UB Stadium in Buffalo, NY
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN2
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Miami (OH) | -1.5 (-108) | -118 | Over 39.5 (-110) |
Buffalo | +1.5 (-112) | -102 | Under 39.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
We’ve seen this matchup plenty of times, as Buffalo and Miami Ohio have waged war 26 times already. Miami Ohio has been the aggressor, as they hold a 17-9 series lead and won the most recent meeting (23-10) in 2023.
The two sides have flip-flopped in recent history, however, as nobody has won consecutive games over the last six meetings.
As for the venue, Miami (OH) won the most recent meeting in their own backyard, while the home team has been the victor in seven consecutive showdowns.
Why This Game Matters
As stated, this game is (almost) for all of the marbles. WMU is in first place all by themselves with two games left on their schedule, but a string of MAC teams are still in play to steal the conference title.
Buffalo and Miami (OH) both have two games remaining on their schedule, but a loss here would mean they won’t contend for the conference championship. Their plight for a bowl game would be over, too.
Team Profiles
Miami Ohio RedHawks
The RedHawks got the 2025 college football season off to a brutal start with a 17-0 loss to a bad Wisconsin Badgers team, and ultimately went 0-3 before getting their first victory.
Miami Ohio got hot after that, as they won five straight games – and looked good doing it – before a 24-20 loss to Ohio took the wind out of their sails.
A clearly defeated RedHawks squad didn’t bother to show up in an equally important 24-3 demolition by the hands of Toledo the following week, but they still have a shot at the MAC ring if they can get it together on Wednesday night.
Here’s a quick look at what stands out for them on the year:
- Ground Control: The RedHawks love to run the ball. They rank 45th in the nation in rush rate and do a reasonably decent job with 139.2 yards on the ground per contest.
- Big Play Upside: Miami (OH) isn’t an offense to be feared, but they can spring big plays down the field through the air. They enter this week with 7.3 yards per pass, which is 65th in the college ranks.
- When in Range: This is a weak offensive team (100th in scoring) but they sure can knock in some field goals. They have one of the country’s most reliable FG units, ranking 6th in conversion rate on the season.
Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls have been a slightly more cohesive team offensively, but that isn’t saying much. They only rank 94th in offensive scoring and have been inconsistent of late, going just 1-2 over their last three contests.
Buffalo is the opposite of Miami Ohio, however, as they prefer to pass more than run and also offer a slightly superior defense.
Here’s a few key ways they stand out on the year:
- Pass Central: As noted, this team leans on their passing game, doing so at a 53.5% rate, which is the 31st highest in all of CFB.
- Sack Attack: Much of Buffalo’s bite comes from the defensive side of the ball, where they sport an elite pass rush (8th in sack rate).
- Run Stuffed: Buffalo also represents a troubling matchup for Miami Ohio, as they excel on a per carry basis (28th) against the run.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Miami Ohio vs. Buffalo matchups:
- Miami Ohio’s rush offense vs. Buffalo’s run defense: Miami Ohio wants to run the ball, but rushing lanes could be few and far between against a pretty good Bulls front seven.
- Finishing Drives: Even if Miami Ohio combats the stingy run defense and Buffalo’s nasty pass rush, the Bulls don’t give up much (18th best RZ defense) when offenses get inside the 20.
- Down the Field: It’s arguable Miami Ohio’s best ticket to winning (second to establishing the run) is converting shots down the field. However, Buffalo isn’t very good (44th) at limiting big plays in the passing game.
Betting Insights & Trends
Miami Ohio has been solid against the spread, going 6-4 overall and 4-2 ATS within the MAC. They’re also 2-0 against the spread when favored on the road and 3-2 ATS on the road in general.
Buffalo is 1-0 against the spread as the home dog and 3-1 ATS as the underdog in general. Their 4-6 overall against the spread mark leaves something to be desired, however.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my favorite Miami Ohio vs. Buffalo picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Buffalo ML (-102) | The Bulls look like the better team when you look at the data, while the home team keeps winning this matchup. | 7/10 |
Over 39.5 (-108) | I don’t have a ton of faith in these offenses, but neither defense is necessarily elite and this is a huge game. This total is pretty low considering what’s at stake. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – AL-Jay Henderson Anytime TD (+100) | Henderson is what makes Buffalo’s ground game go and he has 6 total TDs on the year. With Buffalo feeling like the correct pick here, I think there’s a decent chance he scores. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Buffalo ML (-102)
- Secondary Pick: Over 39.5 (-108)
The Bulls are at home and the home team keeps winning in this series, plus they simply grade out as the better overall team.
Miami Ohio is coming off quite the offensive clunker, but there’s enough meat on the bone for both offenses – plus the total is just really low – for me to feel good about the Over.
Henderson aligns with my Buffalo pick and he has solid TD equity against a pretty pedestrian red-zone defense.
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Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Sometimes even the best picks can fall short. Here are some reasons why my Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo bets could miss:
- Rivalry Game: Rivalry games are forever complicated and hard to gauge. I love the value associated with the Bulls at home, but sometimes MAC games will simply go the other way.
- Changing Trends: The home team keeps winning in this series, but trends don’t last forever. Miami Ohio is fully capable of coming in and taking care of business despite being just 2-3 away from home.
- Bounce-Back: It’s entirely possible what we saw last week out of the RedHawks was a blip on the radar. Before that, they’d been in or won each of their last seven games.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Miami Ohio 20, Buffalo Bulls 24
I think we’re definitely in for a close game that goes down to the wire. Miami (OH) has been really competitive for much of the year, and they should shrug off last week’s debacle.
That said, Buffalo is the more complete team with better defense and they’ll be at home in a night game in the middle of the week. They feel like the better value in what is basically a pick’em.
With neither defense being overly scary and both offenses capable of dropping 20+ points, the 39.5-point total feels light. I also like the Henderson prop, as Miami Ohio’s RZ defense is not elite and if I’m correct about my Miami Ohio vs. Buffalo prediction, him scoring aligns with it perfectly.
