Memphis vs. Rice NCAAF Prediction & Betting Preview (October 31, 2025)
The Rice Owls will hope to play the role of spoiler on Friday night, as they welcome the 25th ranked Memphis Tigers to town. Memphis (7-1) has serious bowl game aspirations – not to mention college football playoff dreams – while the Owls are on a downward trend.
Early odds for this game paint Memphis as 14-point favorites, while the Tigers also carry a hefty -600 moneyline into this road test. Rice offers interesting value (+14, +440), but is just 4-4 on the year.
Will Rice simply be another conquest for Memphis as they try to build their case for a push up the Top 25? Or can the Owls stand firm in front of their home crowd and reward willing bettors with a shocking upset?
I’ll go over all scenarios and break down the latest Memphis vs. Rice odds, while pointing you to my favorite picks and winner prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Memphis Tigers (7-1) vs. Rice Owls (4-4)
- Date & Time: Friday, October 31, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Rice Stadium in Houston, TX
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Team Record
- Memphis Tigers: 7-1 overall, 3-1 in the AAC.
- Rice Owls: 4-4 overall, 1-3 in the AAC.
Betting Odds
Here are the latest Memphis vs. Rice betting odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Memphis | -14 (-108) | -600 | Over 48.5 (-110) |
Rice | +14 (-112) | +440 | Under 48.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
The Memphis Tigers and Rice Owls do not have a rich history, as Friday’s battle in Houston will be just the sixth time ever where they’ve faced off.
Nobody has a major edge in the five-game series, but Memphis pulls in with a slight 3-2 lead. The two sides have also only met one time in the last 13 years, making their 2024 showdown (a 27-20 barn burner) the only game that really matters in the eyes of bettors.
That game was 17-13 through three quarters and ended up going down to the wire. Memphis did pull out the win, and they’ve stolen victories the last two times these two sides have squared off.
Why This Game Matters
This game is much more meaningful for Memphis, who has just one loss on their ledger and could still make a case for the CFP. Even if that doesn’t end up being true, they still are in play for the AAC title and absolutely can make a bowl game.
Needless to say, the Tigers will want to take care of business in this one. A win keeps them on the correct path, but a loss to a middling squad like Rice would risk derailing a strong season to this point.
This is mostly an opportunity to play spoiler for the Owls. They should want to win at home to maintain some pride, and it’s worth noting that they did win a 37-34 shootout with UConn in their previous outing.
It’d take a pretty remarkable run to salvage their season, however. Rice is just 4-4 and likely dead in the AAC. They may need to win out on this point to guarantee a bowl game. It’s possible Rice gives a last-ditch effort to go on a hot run, but it’s a tall order against a flat-out superior Memphis team.
Team Profiles
Memphis Tigers
Memphis has exceeded expectations all year. They got off to a terrific start with a blowout win over Chattanooga in week one, and blew out most of their opponents during an impressive 6-0 run. A wild 32-31 shootout win over Arkansas was sandwiched in there, further boosting their credibility.
The only loss for the Tigers was a tense 31-24 defeat by the hands of UAB. That is not a good loss for them, and a gentle reminder for willing bettors that Memphis isn’t perfect. Still, they bounced back with a gutsy 34-31 win over South Florida in their last game.
Memphis is a balanced squad with a highly efficient offense (36.6 points per game) that dominates teams on the ground (17th in rushing) and is impossible to stop inside the red-zone (96%).
The Tigers also have a top-30 defense to rely on. Their schedule hasn’t been overly difficult, but Rice is part of that. This is a soft matchup on paper where top running back Sutton Smith (515 rushing yards, 6 TDs) should find plenty of success.
Rice Owls
Rice isn’t awful at 4-4, but last week’s win was the rare sighting of stellar offensive play. On the year, the Owls are averaging a paltry 19 points per contest (112th in the country) and are outside the top-100 in too many key offensive categories.
They are highly efficient when they get in scoring position (16th in red-zone scoring), and they do have an elite ground game (15th in rushing yards per game). However, that’s partially be design, as they run at an alarming 73% rate. Naturally, when the rushing offense isn’t clicking – or when they’re trailing – the offense can be a nightmare.
Rice’s passing game can be efficient and will take care of the football, but if asked to do any heavy-lifting the Owls can get into trouble in a hurry. The matchup in front of them is especially daunting since Memphis wants to run the football and happens to own the nation’s 37th-best run defense.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Rice Owls’ rush offense vs. Memphis Tigers’ run defense: Rice wants to run as much as possible. They’re good at it, but that’s really only been proven against weaker competition. Getting it done against a good Tigers run D – not to mention a Memphis team that also runs well – could be tricky. Establishing a lead and leaning on the ground game is their only ticket to an upset, however.
- Memphis Tigers’ rush offense vs. Rice Owls’ run defense: The story is similar the other way, except the Owls aren’t known for their run defense. Memphis is going to need to enforce their will in the trenches to dominate, but they do still have a perfectly capable passing game if they need to call on it.
- Turnovers & penalties: Memphis is pretty disciplined and also rather opportunistic. They rank inside the top-40 at protecting the football and 21st in takeaways. Something has to break here, however, as Rice doesn’t turn the ball over (5th) and is also rarely penalized. The moral of the story here is that Memphis can’t be sloppy, as Rice probably will avoid silly mistakes.
- Rice’s short area pass game vs. Memphis Tigers’ pass defense: The Owls are accurate with their passing, and they don’t turn the ball over. Memphis comes in with the nation’s 115th-ranked sack rate. If they’re not stopping the run or getting after the QB, they could struggle.
Betting Insights & Trends
Memphis has been a fun team to bet on all year. They have gone 7-1 against the spread and are 5-1 ATS as the favorite. They’re even 3-1 against the spread as the road team.
There isn’t much to glean from their over/under numbers, as the Over is just 4-4 for them on the year.
Rice has been predictably tough to rely on, as they’re just 4-4 against the spread. They’re 1-1 ATS as the home dog, 3-2 ATS as the underdog in general, and 1-3 against the spread as the home team.
As for the total, the Over is 5-3 in their games, which is arguably aided by their weak defense (29.6 points allowed per game).
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Here are the top picks for this game:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Memphis ATS -14 (-108) | This is a hefty spread, but Rice does not have a good offense, and Memphis should be able to control this game on the ground. The talent gap is big enough, and there’s enough on the line here that a blowout feels very likely. | 7/10 |
Over 48.5 (-110) | Rice’s defense isn’t good, so Memphis should have their way here. We have seen their games top this exact Over seven times on the year. Rice could do enough to contribute, but the bet is that Memphis will do a lot of the heavy-lifting to get us there. | 7/10 |
Sutton Smith Anytime TD (-150) | Memphis is a 2-touchdown favorite in a game they can’t afford to lose, so the odds are good they will dominate on the ground. Smith is a big part of that, and he has 6 TDs on the year. He’s a good bet to get his 7th – and then some. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Memphis ATS -14.5 (-108)
- Secondary Pick: Sutton Smith Anytime TD (-150)
There isn’t much logic to a Rice upset. They aren’t especially gifted offensively, and their defense isn’t good enough to silence Memphis. I expect a big game out of Sutton, and the Tigers could potentially do enough scoring on their own to get this game to hit the Over.
Memphis vs. Rice lines can shift fast — lock in the best numbers before kickoff. Compare odds, totals, and prop bets now at the best football sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
These bets all look good, but things do go wrong. Considering the following:
- Spoiler: Rice is the inferior team, but they’re at home at night and have nothing to lose. They also know Memphis well and played them tightly just last season.
- Trap Game: Memphis undeniably has bigger fish to fry, but that’s precisely why this could pop up as a classic trap game. They got tripped up once this year against a team they should have beaten, after all.
- Runnin’ Owls: Rice’s offense isn’t scary, but they love to run the football. If they can find success in that area and build an early lead, it isn’t crazy to imagine them nursing that lead later into this game.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Memphis Tigers 45, Rice Owls 10
I think the Tigers roll here. They are a newly minted Top 25 team, and they don’t want to put their standing at risk. They have a ton to play for, they are huge favorites for a reason, and they have more talent than Rice does.
Rice played them closely last year, but the Tigers have too much in front of them to allow the Owls to hang around in this one. They should dominate in the trenches, giving way to a huge game for running back Sam Sutton.
The Owls need everything to go right, even to keep this thing close, so Memphis rolling feels like the most realistic outcome.
