Kent State vs. Ball State Prediction & Betting Picks (November 5, 2025)
Nobody knows who to back in a tense MAC battle on Wednesday night, where the Ball State Cardinals prepare to defend their home turf as slight –115 betting favorites.
Ball State enters the week at just 3-5 and 2-2 within conference play, but they are not alone, as familiar foes Kent State comes to town with the exact same pedestrian record.
It could be a war of attrition, as neither of these teams look particularly great, and the loser can kiss their season goodbye. Without much to play for beyond conference pride, this won’t be an easy game to project.
Not sure how to bet on Kent State vs. Ball State? I don’t blame you, so I’ll scan the latest odds, break down the key matchups, and highlight the game’s most appealing bets.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Kent State Golden Flashes (3-5) vs. Ball State Cardinals (3-5)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, November 5, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, TN
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.
Team Record
- Kent State is 3-5, 2-2 in the MAC.
- Ball State is 3-5, 2-2 in the MAC.
Betting Odds
Check out the most current Kent State vs. Ball State odds, per ESPN Bet:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Kent State | +2.5 (-115) | +110 | Over 47.5 (-105) |
Ball State | -2.5 (-105) | -130 | Under 47.5 (-115) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
Kent State and Ball State don’t have a rich history. They’ve still met 32 times, though, with Ball State dominating the series, 24-8.
As you’d expect, the Cardinals won the most recent meeting and have won each of the last three contests. Last year’s showdown was quite intense (and high-scoring), however, as it went down to the wire in a wild 37-35 shootout.
The game before that was a blowout, but these meetings have been pretty tight and typically have a decent amount of points. The road team has also won the last three games and five of the last six.
Why This Game Matters
This is all about pride in the MAC, while both of these teams are coming in with weak overall records. Neither has a shot at a truly special season, as CFP and conference title hopes are all but dashed.
It’s still possible one of them could win out and snag a bowl game, but even that isn’t looking likely. With not much to get excited about, this one is all about bragging rights.
Team Profiles
Kent State Golden Flashes
Kent State hasn’t been great on the year. They got off to a 1-0 start, but lost each of their next four games. Only one of those games was close, too, as they got housed routinely.
They did dominate UMass to snap that skid, but then got blown away by Toledo before edging out Bowling Green last week.
This is not a very reliable or fun team. Kent State averages just 18.3 points per game on offense, and they allow almost 40 per game (!!). They are a run-first team that isn’t particularly efficient or dominant in that regard.
Dru DeShields (11 TDs, 2 INT) has been productive under center, and he’s the lone bright spot for a weak offense. He hasn’t done enough to convince anyone to bet on Kent State simply due to his presence, however.
Ball State Cardinals
Ball State isn’t much better. They have an identical record to Kent State both in and out of the MAC, and as you’d imagine, they’ve also gotten slapped around quite a bit in 2025.
Qua Ashley (513 rushing yards) has been solid for them on the ground, while dual-threat passer Kiael Kelly contributes to an at times strong rushing attack. The Cardinals are not dominant, but they are somewhat dynamic and want to run the ball as much as possible.
Ball State is impossibly worse than the Golden Flashes on offense, though, as they average a paltry 13.9 points per game (131st in the country). They have a slightly better defense thanks to the nation’s 39th-best sack rate, but they have been far from impressive.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Ball State’s rush offense vs. Kent State’s run defense: Both of these teams want to run the ball, but the Cardinals have such a bad offense that whether they can succeed on the ground or not matters the most. The matchup isn’t difficult on paper, and they’re at home, so there’s a chance they could control this game.
- Kent State’s passing game vs. Kent State’s pass rush: The Golden Flashes aren’t going to pass a ton, but when they do, how they fare against a solid Ball State pass rush could decide how effective they are on offense. Considering they allow a poor 9% sack rate, it could be a pretty key angle that decides the outcome.
Betting Insights & Trends
It’s been all Ball State in this matchup lately. They have won three in a row and five of the last six. All five of their wins have come on the road, but on Wednesday night, they will be playing host.
Kent State hasn’t been a good team against the spread. They’re just 4-4 overall on the year, 1-3 ATS on the road, and 1-3 against the spread as the road dog.
Ball State has been better, going 5-3 overall against the spread. They are also 1-0 ATS as the home favorite.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out the top picks for this game:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 47.5 Total (-115) | The offenses in this game are horrific, and they want to run the ball. The defenses are also bad, but it’s tough to have much faith in them combining for 48 points, given what they’ve done on the year. | 7/10 |
Ball State -130 | The spread price is the same as the ML, so there’s no real reason to place this bet unless you find better odds. However, the Cardinals have dominated this series lately and seem to have the (slightly) better team at home. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Under 47.5 (-115)
- Secondary Pick: Ball State ML (-130)
This is a pretty gross game, but these teams don’t combine for even 42 points per game on average. They also don’t have a ton to play for at this point of the season, so barring a total collapse from their defenses, I doubt we get a ton of scoring. Ball State has also been dominating the series and are at home, so they have the natural edge.
Kent State vs. Ball State odds can change quickly — stay ahead of every line movement and compare spreads now at the top football betting sites before kickoff.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
There are no guarantees in betting. Here’s why these bets could fail:
- Payback: Both of these teams stink, and the spread is super tight, so it wouldn’t be that shocking for the slightly worse Golden Flashes to stage the upset.
- Road Team Luck: The road team keeps winning in this series. Ball State has dominated the series and is at home, but trends are noted for a reason.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Ball State 23, Kent State 20
This game can’t be anything other than low-scoring. Neither of these offenses offers any upside, and they both love to run the football. Ball State has dominated the season series, will be at home in the middle of the week, and have a slightly better defense.
I can see Ball State controlling the game if they can find a way to establish the run early. It won’t be pretty, of course, and that’s precisely why the Under stands out in this likely defensive battle.
