Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Prediction & Best Bets (December 5th, 2025)
The Conference USA title game fires off on Friday, with the first-place Jacksonville State Gamecocks hosting the rival Kennesaw State Owls.
Kennesaw State enters as mild -115 favorites at ESPN Bet despite finishing second in Conference USA behind Jacksonville State. Both teams posted identical 7-1 records within the conference, but a 35-26 win in this same matchup just three weeks ago gives the Gamecocks the home-field advantage.
Both teams have been very good all year, but will lay it all on the line to decide the 2025 Conference USA champion. The pricing is super tight, but a potential shot at reaching the College Football Playoff sets up a dramatic scene.
Not sure which side to back? I’ll take a close look at the latest odds and key matchups en route to my best bets and ultimate Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Kennesaw State Owls (9-4) vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (8-4)
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5th, with kickoff at 6:00 pm CT (7:00 pm ET)
- Venue: AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, AL
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on CBS Sports Network.
Team Record
- Kennesaw State is 9-3, 7-1 in Conference USA.
- Jacksonville State is 8-4, 7-1 in Conference USA.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Kennesaw State | -2.5 (-110) | -135 | Over 59.5 (-110) |
Jacksonville State | +2.5 (-110) | +114 | Under 59.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
These two sides have actually only faced off six times, but the series has been competitive overall, with each side winning three times.
It’s been all Jacksonville State lately, however. The Gamecocks won this year’s regular-season meeting, and they won the two games before that. Kennesaw State hasn’t won a game in the series since 2021, but they did win each of the first three showdowns.
Jacksonville State operates out of AmFirst Stadium, where this game will be played. They are 5-0 there so far in 2025, and they’re 2-1 there in this series.
Why This Game Matters
The 2025 Conference USA championship is at stake. It’s unknown just how likely a trip to the CFP actually is, as neither team presently resides inside the Top 25.
The meat of this matchup is about the conference title, which Jacksonville State claimed over Western Kentucky last year. They will be going for the repeat, which hasn’t been done since Western Kentucky went back-to-back in 2015 and 2016.
Kennesaw State only just arrived in Conference USA in 2024, so they have a shot at their first-ever conference title.
Team Profiles
Kennesaw State Owls
The Owls got off to a rocky start this year, as Wake Forest tripped them up in a tight 10-9 defensive battle, and then Indiana housed them, 56-9. I’m not sure anyone would be too ashamed of those losses, plus they deserve credit for going on a wild 9-1 run ever since.
Their only loss during that year? A 35-26 defeat against this very Jacksonville State team; a game in which was 32-26 with three minutes to go.
Kennesaw State is a pretty battle-tested squad. They’ve been in numerous shootouts and some tight games, while their offense has been lights out lately, scoring 41 and 48 points in wild wins.
Here’s a quick look at what they’ve done well in 2025:
- Deep Shots: Kennesaw State likes to run the ball (a lot), but they are still productive down the field, averaging 8.5 yards per pass (18th in the nation). Christian Moss and Gabriel Benyard both average more than 16 yards per catch and keep this offense a threat through the air.
- Pound the Rock: While the Owls can do major damage down the field, they set up their shots by running the ball 56% of the time (35th) and churn out a rock-solid 167 yards per game on the ground (55th).
- Pressure Up Front: The Owls don’t have an elite defense, but they do have a respectable pass rush. Elijah Hill (7 sacks) anchors a pass rush that offers a 6.6% sack rate, which ranks 43rd in the country.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
The Gamecocks have one fewer win than Friday’s opponent, but they have the same exact record inside Conference USA and literally beat Kennesaw State just weeks ago.
It’s been a really strong year for Jacksonville State overall, as most of their losses have been against good teams and by just one score. They fell to UCF by seven back in week one, and lost to Georgia Southern in a wild 41-34 shootout.
A strong offensive team, the Gamecocks run even more than their opponent and will look to enforce their will in front of their home crowd. Here’s a quick look at where they’ve excelled on the year:
- Ground Control: The Gamecocks run even more than Kennesaw State, with their staggering 66% rush rate ranking 6th highest in all of college football. They turn that insane volume into 256 yards per game (4th!), but are also very efficient (15th in yards per carry.
- Ball Security: Running as much as Jacksonville State has more perks than simply grinding defenses to a pulp; they also don’t turn the ball over a lot. The Gamecocks have the 39th-lowest interception rate and average just one giveaway per game (23rd).
- No Give, Just Take: In addition to securing the ball on offense, Jacksonville State has a very opportunistic defense that sets them up for success. The Gamecocks enter Friday averaging 1.7 takeaways per game, which ranks 18th in the country.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State matchups:
- Jacksonville State’s rush offense vs. Kennesaw State’s run defense: The Gamecocks will run early and often in this matchup. They have one of the most dominant rushing offenses in the nation, while the Owls allow over 181 yards on the ground per game (102nd!).
- Jacksonville State’s o-line vs. Kennesaw State’s pass rush: The Gamecocks don’t throw much, but when they do, they better protect their quarterback. They have a weak 6.02% sack rate allowed, while the Owls do have a pretty good pass rush.
- Turnover Battle: Another huge element of this game will be the turnover battle. Jacksonville State is better at both protecting the ball and taking it away, but Kennesaw State does a solid job of limiting turnovers as well.
Betting Insights & Trends
Jacksonville State has been on fire in the series, as they won the most recent meeting this year and have won three straight against the Owls. They’re also 5-0 at home on the year.
The Gamecocks are just 6-6 against the spread in 2025, while they are 5-3 against the spread within Conference USA. They are also 5-3 against the spread as the underdog.
Kennesaw State has gone 8-4 against the spread on the year, while they are 6-2 ATS inside the conference and 5-3 ATS when favored.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Kennessaw State vs. Jacksonville State picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Jacksonville State ML (+114) | The Gamecocks are at home and have a dominant ground game. They just beat Kennesaw State a few weeks ago and have held a mental edge over them across the last three meetings. | 7/10 |
Over 59.5 (-110) | This is a tense meeting for all the marbles, so both sides should show up and show out. The previous meeting had 61 combined points, and neither team has a particularly great defense. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Jacksonville State ML (-105)
- Secondary Pick: Over 58.5 (-108)
This game is basically a pick’em. You can go with the Gamecocks ATS, but I’d rather keep the extra value since it’s you’re basically betting on them to win, either way. They’re at home and look like the better team.
We should still get a fire fight, though. This game crushed this total last time, while many of their previous battles have produced plenty of points.
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State odds continue to shift as bettors react to the tight spread — track every line move, compare totals, and secure top value at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Things don’t always go as planned when betting on NCAAF. Here’s why my Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State picks could whiff:
- 4th Time’s the Charm: This is a rivalry that is heating up, and Kennesaw State got closer to a win just a few weeks ago. It’s entirely possible they figure out how to come out on top this time around.
- Beaten at Your Own Game: Jacksonville State’s best asset is their rushing attack, but the Owls are also pretty good on the ground. If they strike first and control the pace of this game, they could beat the Gamecocks at their own game.
- For all the Marbles: These defenses stink, and this is a huge game, but the raised stakes could force these teams into silly mistakes and limit the scoring. It’s not crazy to think we get a defensive battle with the conference title hanging in the balance.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Jacksonville State 34, Kennesaw State 31
My main Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State prediction is that the Gamecocks will defend their home turf and claim the Conference USA title. They have yet to lose at home this year, so I doubt they start now in the biggest game of the year.
Jacksonville State’s rushing offense is going to control this game from start to finish. The fact that they don’t have to pass the ball much takes one of the Owls’ defensive strengths away, while they simply win the turnover battle.
That said, I expect a lot of scoring here. Both teams will show up and put up a fight, while the last few meetings have seen shootouts.
