New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Prediction & Betting Picks (November 13th, 2025)
The New York Jets will look to win their third game in a row in Week 11, where they will be huge +536 underdogs on the road against the rival New England Patriots.
Thursday Night Football features a fun AFC East clash; albeit one that may not be very exciting at all due to the Pats being large 11.5-point favorites. The game also sports a paltry 43.5 total.
Still, New England comes in on fire, as they stand in at 8-2 after winning each of their last seven games. Something has to break in this one, as both teams have winning streaks, but the spread is big enough to cause doubts amongst bettors.
Not sure which way to lean? Join me as I inspect the latest odds, highlight the best bets, and work my way to a Jets vs. Patriots prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Thursday, November 13th, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:15 pm ET (Amazon Prime) at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
- Team records entering the game:
- Jets: 2-7
- Patriots: 8-2
- Odds (from ESPN BET)
- Spread: Jets +13.5 (-110) | Patriots -13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Jets (+600) | Patriots (-1000)
- Total: Over 43.5 (EVEN) | Under 43.5 (-120)
This game has a huge point spread, which highlights the talent and productivity gap between the Jets and Patriots. Playing into the spread and moneyline further is New England’s impressive seven-game winning streak, as well as their home field advantage at night on a short week.
A low game total also puts an emphasis on New York’s suspect offense, as well as the mismatch against New England’s defense.
Storylines to Watch
The big storyline for this game is without a doubt the seven-game run for the Pats. New England was a team many felt could rise up the rankings this season, but an 8-2 record is beyond shocking.
Due to the spread and moneyline, it’s likely this winning streak continues. However, AFC East games can be tough to predict, so whether or not the Pats can live up to the spread and extend their winning streak will be the biggest reason people watch this one.
- Jets QB Situation: Ideally bettors know who the Jets will be starting under center before Thursday Night Football kicks off, but head coach Aaron Glenn has kept his cards close to the chest. It’ll be either Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor under center, but who actually starts is still unknown.
- Maye for MVP: A huge reason for New England’s success and 8-2 run to start the year is the play of second-year quarterback, Drake Maye. Maye has emerged as a realistic NFL MVP contender thanks to 19 passing scores and a 113.9 passer rating. It’s likely he’ll continue his MVP form on TNF.
- TreVeyon’s Breakout: There has been a lot of chatter about how the Pats have used (or not used) stud rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, but he finally blew up with two long rushing scores last week. If he can continue to shine, he could be in for a huge day against a Jets run defense that has allowed the 11th most yards to RBs.
Team Profiles
New York Jets
The New York Jets have obviously not been great this year, as they sit at the bottom of the AFC East with a poor 2-7 record.
New York has been involved in several close games throughout the season, however, and is starting to turn things around with a two-game winning streak.
- Ground Control: The one thing the Jets do well on offense is pound the rock. Athletic quarterback Justin Fields is an extension of the ground game, as he and Breece Hall team up for the NFL’s 4th best running game. If Fields and Hall can get it going early, the Jets could hang around.
- Stingy Secondary: It’s worth wondering how much longer New York’s season numbers will hold, as they traded away top cover man Sauce Gardner last week. Still, the Jets own the NFL’s 8th-best pass defense. If they can give Drake Maye any kind of trouble, it could go a long way in keeping this game close.
- Automatic Folk: The Jets don’t have a ton of positivity stemming from a shaky offense, but when they get in range, they can hang their hat on kicker Nick Folk being Mr. Reliable. Folk has converted all 19 of his field goal tries on the year and could be the difference if the Jets keep this one tight down the stretch.
New England Patriots
The Pats have had a magical 2025 campaign. They got off to a slow start by losing to the Las Vegas Raiders back in week one, but bounced back in a huge way. Their hot run includes an upset over the rival Buffalo Bills, while their two losses have both come by just one score.
Drake Maye leads a talented and balanced offense that has shown it can roll with anyone in the league – a unit that has been so good it’s helped mask a pedestrian defense.
- Dynamite: The Pats offer a very explosive offense, as they come in ranking 2nd in yards per pass play (8.9). They haven’t enjoyed the same success on the ground, but judging by his play in week 10, rookie TreVeyon Henderson could fix that moving forward.
- Hyper Efficient: A big reason for Drake Maye’s success is his accuracy and overall efficiency. Maye has done an excellent job taking care of the football, while he heads the league’s second-most-accurate passing game. Neither appears to be at great risk of being disrupted in this week’s matchup.
- Stiff Front: New England’s overall defense doesn’t blow you away, but they definitely know how to stop the run. They’ll come into Thursday Night Football, allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game – tops in the league.
Key Matchups & Angles
Take a look at the key Jets vs. Patriots matchups for TNF:
- Patriots run defense vs. Jets rush offense: New York’s best path to success is finding a way to unleash Justin Fields as a runner or to get Breece Hall going. That feels unlikely against New England’s nasty front seven, which ranks top-5 in every meaningful run defense metric.
- Patriots passing offense vs. Jets secondary: While the Jets don’t have a legit hope against New England’s run defense, their secondary’s prospects look just as bleak as they try to slow down Drake Maye. Trading away stud corner Sauce Gardner didn’t help.
- Jets pass rush vs. Patriots o-line: The only realistic matchup that the Jets could possibly exploit is New England’s pass protection, which has allowed the third worst sack rate in football. Getting timely sacks could disrupt Maye’s flow and stall drives, giving the Jets the advantage they desperately need.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Check out the latest Jets vs. Patriots odds, per ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Jets | +13.5 (-110) | +600 | Over 43.5 (EVEN) |
Patriots | -13.5 (-110) | -1000 | Under 43.5 (-120) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this TNF tilt:
- Public Betting: As you’d expect given the Jets vs. Patriots lines, most of the betting action favors New England. So far 61% of the bets are on the Pats, while 65% of the money is backing them as well.
- Matchup History: Playing in the same division, these two teams have battled quite a bit, facing off 132 total times. The Pats hold a 75-56-1 advantage in the series. They won the most recent meeting (25-22) and are 16-2 over the last 18 clashes.
- ATS Data: New York doesn’t have a good record, but they’ve been pretty competitive on the year, going 5-4 against the spread. They’re also 5-3 ATS as the underdog and 2-1 ATS as the road dog. New England has gone 7-3 against the spread overall and are 2-0 ATS in division showdowns.
Best Bets for Jets vs. Patriots
Pick 1: Jets ATS +13.5 ( -110) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Jets aren’t a very good or reliable team, but they also refuse to quit. Aaron Glenn still has them believing with wins in their last two games, while this is simply a really big spread for a divisional clash.
We saw the Raiders beat a big spread last TNF. Night games on short weeks can go either way, while the Pats have barely edged out some pretty weak teams this year.
Risks/What to Watch
New York isn’t good, and it’s a road game against a hot team in a primetime setting. If the Jets don’t get off to a strong start, this one could unravel in a hurry.
Pick 2: Prop Play – Drake Maye Over 250+ Pass Yards (+112) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
New England has one of the better passing games in the league, and Drake Maye will look to continue to make his case for an MVP win. New York also traded away two key defensive players recently, likely working against the idea of this being a remotely troubling matchup for the Pats.
Risks/What to Watch
New York’s defensive strength is their pass defense, while it’s possible the Patriots could build an early lead and simply not need to throw the ball a lot.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Breece Hall Over 2+ Catches (-250) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Patriots allow the most receptions to running backs this year, while the Jets are likely to be trailing and will need to throw a lot. That’s logic that tracks, as Hall has recorded at least two catches in seven different games.
Risks/What to Watch
It’s always possible the Jets play with a lead and don’t need to throw much, or that New England goes out of their way to neutralize Hall’s touches and take him out of the game entirely.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots odds can shift quickly — follow every line move and grab the best value before kickoff at our best football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Patriots Roll to a 9-2 Start
Final Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Jets 10
The Patriots have just about everything working in their favor here. It’s possible New England overlooks their rivals in this spot, of course, especially since they’ve already been so focused during a seven-game winning streak.
I don’t think that run ends on TNF, but the Jets know the Patriots well and will get up for this game. Ultimately, the 11.5-point spread just feels a bit egregious. New York has proven over their last two games they can hang around, while both props can hit no matter what the game flow looks like.
