New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction & Best Bets (September 29, 2025)
There are two Monday Night Football games in Week 4, so if you’re a fan of the teams playing, hope you have picture-in-picture! Either that or two TVs in one place.
One of the games is the Jets vs. the Dolphins, and New York is traveling to Miami; kickoff is at 7:15 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Florida.
Neither team has won yet; both are 0-3 for the 2025 NFL season, so it’s safe to say both squads really want a win here. The AFC East rivals are winless, but one team has looked a lot better than the other, and that’s the Jets (sorry to the Dolphins).
Justin Fields is slated to start as QB for the Jets after clearing concussion protocol, and Tua Tagovailoa, who’s faced criticism for his recent performance, is set to start as QB for the Dolphins.
The oddsmakers are favoring Miami by a smidge (-2.5 at home), but road underdogs should never be slept on, and that’s the Jets this week.
Which team will walk off the field Monday night with its first win? We have a lot of thoughts, so keep reading for game details, latest betting odds, team trends, context, injuries, rosters, team strengths and weaknesses, trends, possible game flow, and our picks for the best bets!
Game Info
- Matchup: New York Jets (0-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (0-3)
- Date & Time: Monday, September 29, at 7:15 pm ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
- How To Watch: Monday Night Football on ESPN
Current Betting Odds (via FanDuel)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Jets | +2.5 (-102) | +126 | Over 44.5 (-108) |
Dolphins | -2.5 (-120) | -148 | Under 44.5 (-112) |
Head-to-Head Snapshot
- Miami has a slight edge in the all-time rivalry vs. the Jets; it’s 61–57–1.
- QB Tua Tagovailoa has won all six of his starts against New York.
Team Trends & Context
Here’s how both teams have been playing as of late:
- New York dropped its Week 3 home game after failing to move the ball on several late possessions.
- Justin Fields is back from a concussion, and that restores mobility and designed run options to the offense.
- The defense has applied more pressure up front, but has given up a lot of explosive plays through the air.
- Miami has been outscored by 30-plus points combined in back-to-back road losses.
- Pass protection issues and Jaylen Waddle’s shoulder limitation have kept the offense from syncing.
- This will be their home opener, and Miami’s offense has been way more productive at home in the last two seasons.
Injuries & Roster Notes
On the injury front, both teams will be missing players that could impact how this game shakes out! Here’s the latest update, but check rosters closer to the game.
- Justin Fields cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to start as QB. His return gives the Jets a dual-threat dimension that they didn’t have last week with backup QB Tyrod Taylor.
- Darren Waller is listed as questionable with a hip issue. If he sits? New York loses its most reliable red-zone target.
- Cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (ankle) and edge rusher Jermaine Johnson II (ankle) are out. That combo weakens both perimeter coverage and pass-rush depth, so Sauce Gardner will have more responsibility on the back end.
- Tyreek Hill missed practice for personal reasons but is expected to play, and his availability is super important; he stretches the field vertically and pulls coverage away from Jaylen Waddle.
- Storm Duck (ankle) and Jason Marshall Jr. (hamstring) are out, so Miami’s cornerback group is depleted. The younger players will be forced into extended roles against Garrett Wilson.
- The offensive line keeps being reshuffled, which elevates the risk of breakdowns in front of Tua Tagovailoa and could influence Miami’s play-calling with quicker throws.
Matchups & Strengths / Weaknesses
What are the Jets and the Dolphins’ strengths and weaknesses, and how will it affect this matchup?
New York Jets
Strengths
- Quinnen Williams anchors a defensive front that uses various blitz looks to disrupt blocking schemes and compress the pocket.
- Justin Fields’ mobility adds better run options and scrambling ability, and that means first downs even when protection isn’t there.
- A committee rushing attack helps manage the tempo and limit Miami’s time of possession.
Weaknesses
- Depth issues in the secondary will be challenged against Miami’s speed at wide receiver, particularly if safety help is late rotating over the top.
- The Jets’ red-zone execution is among the worst in the league; it ranks in the bottom five after Week 3.
Miami Dolphins
Strengths
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle expand coverage vertically and horizontally, which forces defenses to commit extra resources to them.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s quick release and accuracy on short passes let Miami neutralize heavy rushes and sustain drives.
- Playing at Hard Rock Stadium has historically favored Miami; recent primetime results show they have strong home-field play.
Weaknesses
- Because Storm Duck and Jason Marshall Jr. are sidelined, Miami’s coverage unit is really vulnerable to deep attempts that target Garrett Wilson.
- Offensive line breakdowns have led to sacks and disrupted timing in the passing game.
- The run game lacks balance, and that places too much of the offensive load on Tua’s passing.
Situational & Betting Trends
- The Jets are 2–5 ATS in their last seven divisional road games; pass defense breakdowns have been a recurring theme.
- The Dolphins are 7–2 ATS in their last nine Monday Night home games; they continue to benefit from a primetime edge at Hard Rock Stadium.
- The last six Jets–Dolphins matchups have produced four unders and two overs, which signals a low-scoring lean in recent history.
- When winless teams play in Week 4, spreads are usually modest, and home favorites are usually priced higher than performance suggests.
Tactical Keys & Game Flow
We feel like this game all comes down to quarterback decision-making, trench play, and which team handles red-zone opportunities better. Here’s what each team needs to do to win and a game flow prediction:
What the Jets Have to Do
- Justin Fields has to move the chains with scrambles and designed keepers when Miami covers his first read.
- Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook need to produce steady yardage to keep drives on schedule.
- Defensive pressure has to come from multiple looks, and it has to happen before Tua gets in his groove.
- Red-zone play-calling has to get better, and touchdowns have to happen for them to keep up with Miami.
What the Dolphins Have to Do
- The offensive line needs to hold against interior rush and give Tua the time for quick throws.
- Hill and Waddle should be used to pull the Jets’ safeties wide and open up mid-range routes.
- The defense must contain Fields’ runs outside the structure; they need to keep him within the pocket.
- The secondary needs turnovers to shift possessions to Miami.
Likely Game Flow
- First Half: The Jets rely on the ground game to slow down the game, and Miami pushes vertical routes to test New York’s corners.
- Second Half: Both defenses are adjusting, and a single turnover or broken coverage could separate the scoreline.
- Deciding Factor: The quarterback who limits giveaways and finishes drives with touchdowns? His team should leave with the win.
Analytical Edge & Betting Angles
- Power ratings: ESPN’s FPI projects Miami by 2.2 points, which is closer than the posted -2.5 line.
- Market perception: Public money is likely to back Miami based on recent head-to-head results, and that creates value on the Jets against the spread.
- Total line (44.5): If the Jets commit to the ground game and Miami relies on short passing, the Under stays in play; both defenses are able to limit extended drives.
- Model range: ESPN projections put the scoring window between 43 and 46 points, which lines up with the market total.
Our Best Bets
Where’s the value in this game? We are looking at three angles and a prop for our best bets!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Jets +2.5 (–102) | The Jets get value as short underdogs because Miami’s secondary is undermanned, and Justin Fields’ mobility gives New York another line of attack. | 6.5/10 |
Jets +126 | At this number, the payout shows an implied probability that’s close to what ESPN’s win models suggest, and that means New York has a realistic shot at an outright win. | 5/10 |
Over 44.5 (–108) | Both offenses have vertical threats, and due to multiple injuries in the back end of each defense, the potential for longer scoring plays makes the Over look attractive. | 6/10 |
Fields 20+ rushing yards | Miami has given up lanes to mobile quarterbacks, and Fields’s ability to get out of the pocket makes this total attainable! | 6.5/10 |
Jets vs Dolphins lines are shifting as Monday Night Football approaches—spreads, totals, and props won’t stay steady. Compare the latest movement with our football betting sites to lock in the best value before kickoff.
Risk Factors
- Justin Fields’ health and choices in high-pressure situations could determine if the Jets stay competitive or can’t keep up.
- If Tua Tagovailoa keeps his timing game intact? Miami can take away a lot of New York’s pass rush.
- A special teams play, like a return touchdown or a missed field goal, could change the scoreboard.
- If Miami builds a two-score advantage in the first half, the Jets may be forced to abandon their ground game and be predictable.
MNF Verdict: Our Call on the Jets vs. Dolphins
Final Score Prediction: Jets 24, Dolphins 23
Looks like we are going with the Jets to win against the Giants! Here’s why: Justin Fields is back on the field, and Miami has a lot of injuries. Our take might have been different if the Dolphins were at full strength, but they aren’t.
The game will be close; Miami plays well at home, and neither team wants to lose another game and be 0-4. But in the end, we think the Jets will squeak out the victory!
Best Bets Recap
- Jets +2.5 (Confidence: 6.5/10)
- Jets ML +126 (Confidence: 5/10)
- Over 44.5 (Confidence: 6/10)
- Fields 20+ rushing yards (Confidence: 6.5/10)
