James Madison vs. Texas State Preview & Prediction (October 28, 2025)
Can the Texas State Bobcats snap their current 4-game skid and upset the rival James Madison Dukes? The betting odds don’t suggest as much, with Texas State entering the week as a 7-point underdog.
The Dukes enter week 10 as the cream of the crop in the Sun Belt Conference. They’ve been dominant so far, going 4-0 within the conference and 6-1 overall. James Madison has been red hot of late, ripping off five straight wins following a 1-1 start, and they’ll be touchdown favorites to keep the ball rolling when they take on their conference rivals.
Texas State originally looked like quite the handful en route to a blazing 3-0 start, but they have struggled immensely ever since, dropping each of their last four contests and failing to earn a win in conference play. Now 3-4, the Bobcats are in desperation mode for their week 10 tilt versus James Madison. Thanks to an explosive offense (36.3 points per game), however, they could be a sneaky pick ATS.
Looking for a betting edge in this James Madison vs. Texas State showdown? I’ll look over the latest odds and point you to my preferred picks and ultimate winner prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: James Madison Dukes (6-1) vs. Texas State Bobcats (3-4)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, October 28, with kickoff at 7:00 pm CT (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Team Record
- James Madison: 6-1 overall, 4-0 in the SBC.
- Texas State: 3-4 overall, 0-3 in the SBC.
Betting Odds
Here are the latest James Madison vs. Texas State odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
James Madison | -7 (-105) | -270 | Over 55.5 (-112) |
Texas State | +7 (-115) | +220 | Under 55.5 (-108) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
Both of these teams have been in the Sun Belt Conference since 2022, but that’s still the first and last time they’ve faced off. The Dukes won easily in a 40-13 thrashing, with that game going down in their own backyard.
This week’s meeting will be just the second contest in this series, with it also being the first game at UFCU Stadium between these two sides. Texas State is 2-1 on their home field so far in 2025, with their lone loss in front of their fans coming in a wild 48-41 shootout against Troy.
Why This Game Matters
It’s do-or-die time for Texas State. At 3-4 and winless in Sun Belt play, they need to win out to have any hopes of a bowl game. Even if that’s not in the mix for 2025, they can save face and earn their first SBC win on Tuesday night.
This game is much more meaningful for James Madison, with the Dukes coming in with a sparkling 6-1 overall record. With a win in this matchup, the Dukes retain full control of their destiny within the conference and also keep their bowl game hopes alive.
Team Profiles
James Madison Dukes
The James Madison Dukes have operated a solid offense (43rd with 30.2 points per game) that is capable in all aspects, but is truly dominant on the ground. Their rushing attack, spearheaded by explosive running back Wayne Knight (611 rushing yards, 6.6 ypc) has been incredibly dynamic and the offense’s lifeblood, ranking 10th in rushing yards per game.
While the offense has allowed the Dukes to run away with several games, it’s been an exceptionally stingy defense (11th in the country with 16.1 points per game allowed) that has allowed them to suffocate the opposition. James Madison has been equally dominant against the pass (18th) and run (2nd), while deploying the country’s second best pass rush.
With top-shelf balance on offense and a defense that offers little give, James Madison is a tough out every single week.
Texas State Bobcats
Texas may just be the antithesis of James Madison, as they have not gotten it done defensively in 2025 – a big reason for their pedestrian 3-4 record. In fact, they’ve gotten obliterated on that side of the ball, giving up 30+ points five different times and finding themselves on the losing side in four such contests.
While the defense leaves a lot to be desired, Texas State has been as good as anyone on offense, piling up the 15th best scoring offense (36.3 points per game). It’s a system that has not been worried about how it gets the job done, as the Bobcats have moved the ball at will, whether via the ground (10th in rushing) or through the air (25th in passing).
Their offense hasn’t led to many wins, but dynamic quarterback Brad Jackson paces an offense that can score in a hurry and burn defenses from anywhere on the field.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Texas State’s offense vs. James Madison’s defense: The Dukes have been positively nasty on the year, but they get perhaps their toughest test to date. Can James Madison’s stingy defense silence the Bobcats’ explosive offense?
- James Madison’s offense vs. Texas State’s defense: The Dukes have been rock solid offensively, but they get a Bobcats D giving up an astonishing 36 points per game. Is this a shootout waiting to happen, or a beatdown?
- Turnovers & penalties: Neither of these teams are particularly elite at avoiding penalties or racking up turnovers. If one of them turns sloppy, though, it could tilt the game the other way.
- Battle in the trenches: This game could be decided up front, as James Madison has the second best pass rush in all of college football. If the Bobcats can’t handle the pressure – and they do rank 104th in pressure allowed – they could have a tough night.
- Air assault: On the other side, the Dukes could be in for their best game yet through the air. They only own the 101st best passing offense, but they face a defense that doesn’t generate turnovers and gives up gobs of yardage (115th).
- Unfamiliar territory: These teams do not know each other well. They’ve faced each other just once, so it will be interesting to see if the game being on the road and at night could negatively impact the favored Dukes.
Betting Insights & Trends
There isn’t much insight to be gained as far as actual James Madison vs. Texas State betting trends, as they’ve only faced the one time before. However, the Dukes rolled in that game, and it’s arguable the Bobcats don’t have the defense to prevent James Madison from putting up 40+ points for a second straight meeting.
One betting trend worth noting is the fact that the Dukes are 5-2 against the spread in 2025. They are also 3-2 ATS when favored by six points or more this season. On the flip side, Texas State has struggled (2-5 ATS overall, 0-1 when 6+ point dogs).
While most online sportsbooks have this game right around a touchdown for the point spread, the game total is a balmy 55.5 at DraftKings. With this in mind, something has to break, as just one James Madison game has topped this total, and five Texas State games have managed to do so.
Should bettors embrace Texas State’s offensive upside and lack of defense, or trust in James Madison’s elite defense?
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Here are the top picks for this game:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 55.5 | James Madison’s defense is nasty, but Texas State’s offense can ball. Combining both offense’s upside and the Bobcats’ inability to stop anyone, we anticipate some fireworks. | 7/10 |
Texas State +7 | James Madison should win, but they’ve gone just 3-2 ATS as big favorites. Texas State – despite their defensive shortcomings – have dominated or been in every game but one. | 7/10 |
James Madison -270 | Texas State’s offense should help this game hit the Over and it should allow for them to stay in it, but this is the Dukes’ game to lose. They are undefeated in SBC play and have a lot to gain by winning this one (and a lot more to lose). | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 55.5
- Secondary Pick: Texas State +7
When James Madison vs. Texas State lines first opened, the game had a 6.5-point spread and a 60.5 total. The total has dipped and the spread went up. That gives bettors value in hammering the Over and getting 0.5 extra point with the Bobcats.
Odds for James Madison vs. Texas State are tightening as kickoff nears, with sharp bettors driving subtle moves on both sides. Stay ahead of the shifts and lock in your value plays at the best football sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
While we’re confident in our picks for this game, here are a few things to consider before placing your bets:
- Small sample size: These teams have only played each other once before, so there’s really no telling how the second meeting will go.
- Nothing to lose: Texas State has looked great on offense, but their weak defense has led to a brutal start. With nothing to lose, they could call trick plays and be extra aggressive in pursuit of their first SBC win.
- Offense wins out: James Madison has a stingy defense, but it’s tough to know for sure if it can contain an offense as dynamic as Texas State. If they can’t, this game could turn into a shootout and work to the Bobcats’ advantage.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: James Madison 40 – Texas State 34
This is a classic defense vs. offense tilt, but with a pretty big caveat; these teams don’t know each other all that well. The Dukes did hang 40 on Texas State the last time they played them, though, and so far in 2025, so has pretty much everyone else.
James Madison’s defense has enough bite to slow the Bobcats down enough to win, but they should put up points against Texas State’s porous defense. And after that happens, we can see the Bobcats roaring back to life – just enough to give the Dukes a sweat and beating the spread.
Ultimately, we’re bound to get a shootout. James Madison will get the job done, but not without giving up some production – and points – in a relatively close game.
