Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee NCAAF Prediction (October 29, 2025)
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are set up for success when they travel to Tennessee to battle Middle Tennessee, but can the 1-6 Blue Raiders play spoiler?
Middle Tennessee is already thinking about next season in some respects, as they enter this home tilt at just 1-6 overall (0-3 in CUSA play). Despite the record discrepancy, the Blue Raiders are just 5.5-point home underdogs in a game with a healthy 54.5 game total.
Jacksonville State is the understandable favorite – even on the road – as star running back Cam Cook powers the nation’s 4th best rushing offense into a favorable spot. The Gamecocks figure to have the edge across the board in this one, but can the Blue Raiders shock the world and deliver a winning bet with maximum value?
Want to know how to bet on Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee? The Gamecocks line up as the preferred bet, but I’ll look over the matchup and highlight key points while pointing to my top picks for the contest.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Jacksonville State (4-3) vs. Middle Tennessee (1-6)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 29, with kickoff at 6:30 pm CT (7:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, TN
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
Team Record
- Jacksonville State: 4-3 overall, 3-0 in Conference USA.
- Middle Tennessee: 1-6, 0-3 in Conference USA.
Betting Odds
Here are the latest Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee odds, per ESPN Bet:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Jacksonville State | -4.5 (-120) | -210 | Over 54.5 (-125) |
Middle Tennessee | +4.5 (EVEN) | +175 | Under 54.5 (+105) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
It has been all Jacksonville State lately in this series – one that has a long and rich history. The Gamecocks have won the last three meetings, putting up 42 and 45 points in consecutive blowouts.
That three-game run followed a dominant stretch where Middle Tennessee won five games in a row, however, while the Blue Raiders own the series edge all-time (17-4-2).
Bettors can really only go off of the last two showdowns, of course, as those games came in 2023 and 2024, and the third most recent affair occurred in 1998. Judging by recent history, Jacksonville State is the much more reliable team, although Middle Tennessee has enjoyed some offensive success in this matchup.
Why This Game Matters
Middle Tennessee’s season is already over. They’re 1-6 with no end in sight, and they have yet to get a win in Conference USA play. They’ve also lost four in a row (albeit in competitive fashion), and they have very little to play for.
The opposite is true for Jacksonville State. They have a middling overall record at 4-3, but they are undefeated in CUSA. If they win this game and stay hot, they could still work their way to a bowl game. Losing this game would hurt their CUSA title hopes and render them just another pedestrian 4-4 squad.
Team Profiles
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are better than their 4-3 record would indicate. They’ve yet to lose within the conference, while they only lost to UCF by a touchdown and fell to Georgia Southern in a 41-34 shootout.
Jacksonville State has been ridiculously efficient on the ground in 2025. Cam Cook has piled on 949 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns so far this year, abusing opposing defenses at a 5.9 yards per carry clip and leading the country’s 4th-best ground game.
In addition to having a dominant running game, Jacksonville State has an opportunistic defense (50th in takeaways) and can generate pressure (35th in sack rate). When those elements work together, they’re incredibly tough to beat.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Things haven’t been as great for Middle Tennessee. Their record is pretty brutal, but to their credit, they’ve been in every game during their current four-game skid. However, they did get crushed by a weak Wisconsin team, while their lone win of the year was a 14-13 snoozer against a 1-7 Nevada squad.
Sometimes you simply are what your record says you are. A deep dive reveals plenty of data to back that up, too, as the Blue Raiders rank 109th in scoring as an offense, rank 124th in red-zone scoring, and aren’t exactly limiting opponents defensively.
The one bright spot? Their passing game. Some of it is born out of necessity, but Nicholas Vattiato has put up solid numbers while leading the nation’s 27th-best passing offense.
This still isn’t an efficient or highly productive offense as a whole, while Middle Tennessee hasn’t done enough defensively to close out games. The worst part? All of this has come against low level competition, so it’s arguable the Blue Raiders are even worse than advertised.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Jacksonville State’s rush offense vs. Middle Tennessee’s run defense: Cam Cook leads one of the best ground games in the nation, but Middle Tennessee has been decent at times against the run. They’re unlikely to shut Cook down, but if they somehow did, they could flip this game on its side.
- Jacksonville State’s pass defense vs. Middle Tennessee’s pass offense: The one thing the Blue Raiders do well is throw the ball. If this game turns into a shootout – especially given Jacksonville State’s ho-hum pass defense (just 107th!) – Middle Tennessee could play spoiler.
- Pass protection vs. pass rush: Both defenses have solid pass rushes, with Middle Tennessee ranking inside the top 60 in pass rate, and the Gamecocks ranking 35th. Who has more success at generating pressure could dictate how this game unfolds.
- Turnovers & penalties: Middle Tennessee commits a ton of penalties, while the Gamecocks are rather disciplined. If that doesn’t suddenly get swapped between the two, Jacksonville State could have a huge edge in this one.
- Jacksonville State’s road woes: It could be nothing, but the Gamecocks have suffered all three of their losses on the road in 2025. It’s worth wondering if a road date at night in the middle of the week could be too much for them to handle.
Betting Insights & Trends
Jacksonville State has won the only two meetings played since 2000, and they did so rather easily. They’re on a 3-0 run over the last three meetings, and so far appear to be much more equipped to keep that streak going than Middle Tennessee is staging an upset.
On the year, the Gamecocks are still just 4-3, however, and they’ve gone 3-4 against the spread overall and 0-2 ATS as the favorite. Middle Tennessee isn’t much more reliable ATS, though, as they’re just 3-4 overall against the spread this year and 3-3 ATS as the underdog.
The spread for this game was originally set at -6.5 at some sportsbooks, but now settles in at -5.5 at ESPN Bet. The total is a healthy 54.5, which is worth noting since the last two meetings between these teams easily hit the Over. The Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville State games this year, while the Over is 3-4 for Middle Tennessee. Middle Tennessee games have topped this total just twice all year, while Jacksonville State games have done so six times.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Here are the top picks for this game:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 54.5 | Jacksonville State runs the ball extremely well and tends to put up a good amount of points. Neither defense is particularly scary, and the last two meetings between these two sides totaled 62+ points. | 8/10 |
Jacksonville State ML | The Gamecocks have the edge in just about every way in this game. They’ve proven to be the better team and have much more motivation to get the job done. | 7/10 |
Middle Tennessee ATS +5.5 | The Blue Raiders do still possess a vibrant passing game and while they can’t stop losing, they’ve been in each of their last four losses. At home, at night, and on a short week, there’s enough there for them to beat the spread in a possible shootout. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 54.5
- Secondary Pick: Jacksonville State ML (-210)
The opening line for this game was at 6.5, so the Gamecocks lost a point with the update. That move indicates public interest in Middle Tennessee. Losing the point isn’t ideal for ATS bets, but they’re at home on a short week, making their +5.5 bet still look enticing.
Lines for Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee are changing fast. Stay ahead of market moves and secure your best number at the top football sportsbooks.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
We like all of the above bets, but things do go wrong. Here are a few things to consider:
- Hungry spoiler: Middle Tennessee has to be hungry for a win, as they have lost each of their last four games. They’re also 1-6 with no bowl game in their future, so they have nothing to lose against their bitter rivals.
- Rough travels: Jacksonville State’s Achilles heel in 2025 has been playing on the road. All three of their losses have come away from home, and this week’s tilt in at night, on a short week, and on the road.
- Passing thought: Lastly, the one part of this matchup where Middle Tennessee has an edge is through the air. If they can fend off the Gamecocks’ pass rush and jump out to an early lead, they could potentially push Jacksonville State out of their comfort zone.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Jacksonville State 41 – Middle Tennessee 27
I definitely think there’s a little bit of concern with the fact that Jacksonville State has struggled away from home. Add a night game on a short week against a hungry rival, and there could be trouble on the way.
That isn’t enough to get me to bet on the upset, as Middle Tennessee isn’t very good, and I don’t think they can shut Cam Cook and the Jacksonville State ground game down. However, they can find some success through the air to the point where they contribute to a high-scoring shootout.
Look for the game to be close early, and the Gamecocks to pull away late. Want an extra sneaky bet? Hammer Middle Tennessee ATS in the 1H.
