Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction & Best Bets (December 6th, 2025)
There are nine college football conference title games going down this week, but none are bigger than an epic Big 10 championship clash between the #1 Ohio State Buckeyes and the #2 Indiana Hoosiers.
More games will come in the College Football Playoffs to decide who the true best team in the nation is, but for now, this one will do. Indiana will understandably enter hostile territory as +164 underdogs, but an elite offense and defense capable of matching the Buckeyes gives them a real shot at pulling off the upset.
Neither of these teams have lost all year, while both sides offer elite playmaking, strong running games, and untouchable defenses. Only one team can emerge as the Big 10 champion, however, which will set the tone for what figures to be a wild CFP.
As exciting as this matchup is, actually coming away with an Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction feels almost impossible. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction if you plan on betting on this game, though. Let’s take a look at the latest odds and best bets as we try to gauge who will win this thing.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Indiana Hoosiers (12-0) vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 6th, with kickoff at 7:00 pm CT (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on FOX.
Team Record
- Indiana is 12-0, 9-0 in the Big 10.
- Ohio State is 12-0, 9-0 in the Big 10.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Indiana vs. Ohio State odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Indiana | +4.5 (-115) | +156 | Over 46.5 (-114) |
Ohio State | -4.5 (-105) | -186 | Under 46.5 (-106) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
Indiana and Ohio State have battled each other 99 times, which makes it only fitting that the Big 10 title will be their 100th meeting. Of course, it’s been all Buckeyes in this matchup, with Ohio State holding a commanding 82-12-5 series lead.
Ohio State is currently on an absurd 14-game winning streak in the series, too. The Buckeyes’ winning streak would be even longer, but a 2010 win was vacated.
Indiana’s last win in the series came in 1988, while their most recent meetings were 38-15 and 23-3 blowout losses.
Ohio State is tough to beat in general, but they’re at their best at Ohio Stadium. They haven’t lost anywhere all year, but they also have not lost a home game since 2021. They also haven’t lost at home in this series since 1987.
Why This Game Matters
This is the big one. Whoever wins gets to say they are this year’s Big 10 champion, while they could hold the top seed in the College Football Playoff.
Both teams will make the CFP, but the winner on Saturday would get better seeding and could have a distinct advantage when everyone starts to play for the national title.
Team Profiles
Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers set the foundation for what they’ve accomplished this year by going 11-2 in 2024. After one of the greatest seasons in school history, they decided to follow it up with an even better one.
Indiana isn’t favored to win this game, but they’re not that far behind Ohio State, and the pricing shows it. The Hoosiers rolled through the Big 10 virtually unbothered, smoking almost everyone they faced throughout the year.
The Hoosiers were tested a few times by Iowa and Penn State, but proved they can win defensive battles and pull out close games. Ultimately, this is a team with a high-powered offense and a dominant defense.
Before we decide if they can take down the Buckeyes, let’s take a quick look at where they’ve excelled:
- Ground Control: Indiana is as good as anyone on the ground. Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black give them two strong backs to lean on, as they rack up over 223 rushing yards per game (9th) at a 5.5 yards per carry clip (12th).
- Deep Threat: The Hoosiers love to run, but they can hurt you with their explosive wide receivers. Fernando Mendoza (32 TDs) leads a talented passing attack that ranks 7th in completion percentage, but also ranks 6th in yards per pass (9.2).
- No Free Pass: Indiana has the 3rd best scoring offense in college football, but they’re just as good on defense. They own the nation’s 17th-best sack rate, give up the third-fewest points, rank 4th against the run, and rank 19th against the pass.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Ohio State Buckeyes are pretty good. Ryan Day’s crew is coming off a national title win, and they are hoping to repeat as NCAAF champions.
Despite losing a ton of key starters, Ohio State has not missed a beat. They did barely get past Texas in their first game of the year, but they’ve otherwise passed every test thrown their way.
Like Indiana, they finished 12-0 with a perfect 9-0 record inside the difficult Big 10. That included a convincing win over Michigan in their last game. With their only close game being that week one battle with the Longhorns, the Buckeyes have constantly reminded everyone why they’re (once again) the team to beat.
Ohio State does just about everything well, but here’s how they stand out the most:
- Stingy Defense: Nobody has a better defense than the Buckeyes. They give up just 8.5 points per game and rank tops in yards per game, points per play, and yards per play. Throwing and running on this defense is equally difficult, while they also own the nation’s 4th-best pass rush.
- Big Play Szn: Ohio State’s bread and butter is their defense, but it’s not like they aren’t great on offense. They still average 34 points per game (17th) and, in particular, can spring big plays with the best of them. They enter this matchup ranking 17th in yards per play and especially dial up big plays in the passing game (11th).
- Max Protect: Ohio State runs the ball 54% of the time, but they are still a fairly balanced offense that does rely on big plays through the air. Luckily, they don’t have to worry about their pass protection. Their stout o-line allows the second-lowest sack rate in all of college football, which plays into the nation’s 9th-lowest interception rate as well.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Indiana vs. Ohio State matchups:
- Indiana’s rush offense vs. Ohio State’s run defense: It’s asking a lot, but the Hoosiers have a chance in this game if their dynamic duo can find success against Ohio State’s nasty front seven. The Buckeyes only cough up 2.8 yards per carry, however.
- Indiana’s passing offense vs. Ohio State’s pass defense: If the Hoosiers can’t run on the Buckeyes, they’ll need to throw. That also could go poorly, of course, as they rely on big plays and Ohio State (1st in yards per pass) just doesn’t allow them. They also rank 1st against the pass and have a nasty pass rush, so yeah.
- Ohio State’s passing offense vs. Indiana’s pass defense: This may be the key on the other side. The Buckeyes are just as reliant on big plays in the passing game, while they are the most efficient passing offense in all of college football. That could change against Indy, who rank 14th in yards per pass allowed and have the 6th best interception rate.
Betting Insights & Trends
Ohio State doesn’t lose at home, and they never lose to Indiana. They haven’t lost to the Hoosiers since the 1980s, and they haven’t lost a home game since 2021.
Both teams have been good against the spread, but Ohio State (10-1) has been much better than Indiana. They’re also 6-0-1 ATS as the home favorite and 8-1 ATS within the Big 10.
Indiana (7-5) hasn’t been bad against the spread, of course. However, they’re just 3-2 ATS on the road and just 5-4 against the spread inside the conference.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Hoosiers vs. Buckeyes picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Ohio State ML (-186) | The Buckeyes have owned this series and don’t lose at home. Their defense is insane and they have enough offense to match wits with Indiana. The Hoosiers offer value, but getting a team as dominant as Ohio State at -198 at home is kind of insane. | 8/10 |
Indiana ATS +4.5 (-115) | Call it a hedge all you want, but I actually think we can place and win both of these bets. Indiana is the slightly inferior team, but they are 2nd in defense only to Ohio State and they do have the more prolific offense. I think this one goes down to the wire, with Ohio State pulling it out late. | 7/10 |
Jeremiah Smith Anytime TD Scorer (-145) | Indiana’s run defense is nasty, so I think Ohio State’s strength (their passing game) is what carries them here. Jeremiah Smith is a stud who already has 11 scores on the year. It’s hard to imagine him getting blanked in his biggest game of the season. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Ohio State ML (-186)
- Secondary Pick: Indiana Hoosiers ATS +4.5 (-115)
Normally, I wouldn’t get giddy about a team’s moneyline pushing -200, but this is the Buckeyes. It’s pretty rare we can bet on them at this price.
Indiana is probably going to lose, but I do think they can keep it close. Ideally, we get a thicker spread to work with (hunt for alternates!), but I like their chances to keep this one close.
Jeremiah Smith has the size and athleticism to win in this matchup. Indiana’s defense is tough, but he scores regularly, having found the endzone in eight different games in 2025.
Indiana vs. Ohio State odds keep shifting as bettors weigh two unbeaten powerhouses — track every line move, compare spreads and totals, and lock in top value at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Things don’t always go as planned when betting on college football. Here’s why my Indiana vs. Ohio State betting picks could fail:
- The Times Are a Changin’: Ohio State won’t dominate Indiana forever, and this isn’t the big game they can’t afford to lose. They could always get tripped up here and then calibrate to go win another national championship.
- Utter Domination: On the flip side, I could be more right about the Buckeyes winning than even I think. They’ve dominated everyone since a close win over Texas. Indiana is great, but maybe they’re just a very distant second to the Buckeyes.
- Defense’s Focus: This isn’t a good matchup for scoring. Both offenses are capable of hanging 50+ on anyone, but against each other, I think fewer opportunities will present themselves. That could impact Smith, who scores a lot, but still has three games where he was unable to score a touchdown.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Indiana 24
This is a weird game in that both offenses make splash plays and can move the ball at will. A shootout is 100% a possibility when looking at how both teams have played in 2025 and the star talent they possess.
However, the defenses are insanely good. Neither defense is fun to go up against, and there just is not a lot of wiggle room to comfortably project a ton of scoring. That should allow Indiana to keep it close, while the only distinct matchup advantage may lie with Ohio State finding success through the air, much like they normally do.
Ultimately, I think we get enough points to keep the game watchable, and I don’t see a blowout coming. But if you’re betting on Indiana vs. Ohio State, I’d continue to trust the Buckeyes, first and foremost, and work your way from there.
