Florida State vs. NC State Prediction & Top Betting Picks (November 21, 2025)
A bowl game is on the line on Friday night, when the Florida State Seminoles close out their ACC schedule as 5.5-point favorites on the road against the NC State Wolfpack.
It’s a bitter ACC clash with plenty on the line, while a gaudy 60.5 game total suggests we’re in for a good time, no matter which side we’re backing.
NC State is not expected to win this game, but these teams own identical 5-5 records and have not had much fun in conference play this season. Both have an opportunity to make up for that and punch a bowl game ticket in this spot.
So, which team should you back? Let’s look at the latest odds, key matchups, and best bets, along with my Florida State vs. NC State prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Florida State Seminoles (5-5) vs. NC State Wolfpack (5-5)
- Date & Time: Friday, November 21st, with kickoff at 7:00 pm CT (8:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium in Wake County, NC
- How to Watch: ESPN
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Florida State vs. NC State odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Florida State | -5.5 (-120) | -230 | O 59.5 (-112) |
NC State | +5.5 (-102) | +190 | U 59.5 (-108) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is definitely a game these two teams will get up for, as they have been bitter ACC rivals for quite some time now, facing off 42 times in history.
Florida State holds the lifetime edge, 26-16, but it’s been all NC State recently. The Wolfpack have won three in a row in the series, with the last contest going down to the wire in a tight 19-17 affair.
These two sides haven’t faced the last two seasons, though, so not much can be taken from previous matchups at this point.
As for the venue, nobody likes to come into Carter-Finley Stadium, seeing as the Wolfpack rarely lose here. They’ve won the last three matchups at home in this series, and on the year have just one loss (23-21 vs Virginia Tech) in front of their fans.
Why This Game Matters
A bowl game is on the line, while it’s an ACC clash. Nobody needs to try too hard to get up for this one. Both teams want to play in a bowl game, while the loser will be at risk of ending the year with a losing record.
This is a classic “win and you’re in” game, so we can expect a fire fight. Florida State could have an extra edge to them since NC State won the three previous meetings, but there is a lot on the line here for both sides.
Team Profiles
Florida State Seminoles
It’s been rough sledding for the Seminoles in the ACC this year, but let’s not forget they got off to a nice 3-0 start and even bested Alabama (convincingly, even) back in week one.
Florida State stumbled after that hot start, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. They lost a wild 46-38 shootout to Virginia, Miami only beat them by six, and overall, Clemson remains the only team to beat them by more than one score.
The Seminoles have an elite offense and are capable of hanging with anyone. Here’s a look at where they’ve stood out in particular on the year:
- Deep Ball: Wide receiver Micahi Danzy (22.7 yards per catch) has been one of the most explosive playmakers in the nation and is a huge reason why the Seminoles have been so good through the air.
- Ground Control: Despite a really solid passing game, the Seminoles can dominate on the ground with a stellar stable of backs. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos (8 rushing TDs) leads a balanced attack that ranks 13th in rushing yards per game.
- High Pressure: Florida State’s defense is more than capable of keeping them in games or even dominating. They rank 38th in points allowed and also have a very good pass rush (24th in sack rate).
NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack also got off to a nice 3-0 start earlier in the year, getting clutch wins over the likes of Virginia and Wake Forest. They scored 24+ points in all of those games, but shaky defense tripped them up in week four against a solid Duke Blue Devils team.
Things went downhill from there, as NC State’s offense wasn’t always ready to make up for their defensive issues. They’ve only won twice since losing to Duke, but a November 1st upset of Georgia Tech in a crazy 48-36 thriller is a reminder of their potential.
NC State got demolished the very next week (41-7) by Miami, though, so you truly never know what to expect with this team.
Here’s a quick look at where they’ve thrived in 2025:
- Smothering: Running Back Hollywood Smothers has been a bright spot (6.5 yards per carry) for an otherwise pedestrian rushing attack. That has a lot to do with a pass happy offense, but the Wolfpack should lean harder on their explosive RB.
- Pass Happy: I mentioned NC State’s tendency to pass, as they are 37th in pass rate. They are quite good at it, though, as quarterback CJ Bailey (19 passing TDs) leads the country’s 40th best passing attack.
- No Defense: The offense looks great, but NC State leaves a lot to be desired defensively. Their defense allows 34 points per game (120th!) and generates a poor 3.45% sack rate.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key matchups:
- Florida State’s pass rush vs. NC State’s o-line: This may very well be the key to the game. The Wolfpack pass at a 52.44% rate and rely on their passing game, but they’re facing an elite pass rush that ranks 28th in sacks per game (2.4).
- Hollywood Smothers vs. Florida State’s run defense: I’m not sure running the ball will go so hot for the Wolfpack, either. Smothers is a dynamic back, but the Seminoles rank 22nd in yards per carry (3.4) allowed.
- Florida State’s passing offense vs. NC State’s secondary: NC State has a tough test on their hands against a dynamic Seminoles offense. The Wolfpack give up 34 points per game but are especially gouged (319.8 yards allowed per contest) through the air.
Betting Insights & Trends
Florida State has been brutal on the road, losing all three games away from home in 2025. They haven’t been great against the spread (5-5), either, while they are just 4-3 ATS when favored and 0-3 against the spread on the road.
NC State is 4-6 overall against the spread, but they’re 1-0 ATS as the home underdog, and 3-2 against the spread at home in general. They are just 3-4 against the spread in ACC games and 1-4 ATS as the underdog, however.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Florida State vs. NC State picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
NC State ATS +5.5 (-110) | NC State is very good at home and the Seminoles have yet to win a road game in 2025. The Wolfpack have a pretty dynamic offense, too, while there is too much at stake to envision them getting blown away. | 7/10 |
Florida State ML (-215) | The Seminoles are still the better team. They have a similarly potent offense, but they definitely have the edge on defense. | 6/10 |
Over 60.5 (-112) | While Florida State’s defense gives them an edge, I see a shootout here. NC State’s defense is giving up 34 points per game and both offenses can easily put up 30+ points. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: NC State ATS +5.5 (-110)
- Secondary Pick: Florida State ML (-215)
This is a game where we can target all of the main bets with a good amount of confidence. NC State has the home field advantage – something that is actually a big deal in this spot – but their defense is so bad that I think the Seminoles can overcome it.
We’ll get a close game with a lot of points, allowing NC State to beat the spread and the Over to hit, but I think the Seminoles are the straight up play.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Things can definitely go wrong when betting on football. Here’s why my Florida State vs. NC State bets could miss the mark:
- Defensive Bite: It’s always possible Florida State’s defense shows up and neutralizes a solid Wolfpack offense. If so, the Over could be in jeopardy.
- Hometown Discount: I have the Seminoles winning, but they’ve been bad on the road and this isn’t an easy stadium to play in. They could absolutely struggle like they have previously in road stops.
- Separation: I have NC State hanging tight, but their bad defense and Florida State’s stingy defense could create a sizable gap. It shouldn’t, but this game blowing out isn’t completely implausible.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Florida State Seminoles 33, NC State Wolfpack 30
This is a massive ACC game for a shot to play in a bowl game, so I fully expect both Florida State and NC State to show up and give it their all. I definitely fear the Seminoles’ suspect play on the road, but they simply are the better team right now.
NC State’s defense has been atrocious and they are coming off a pretty devastating blowout loss. I think they can bounce back and put up some points to keep things interesting, but this should be Florida State’s game to lose.
