Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction & Best Bets (December 11th, 2025)
The Atlanta Falcons are on their last leg as they prepare to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football in week 15. Kirk Cousins and co. will be rightful 4.5-point underdogs, although it’s fair to wonder why the point spread isn’t bigger.
Tampa Bay has struggled of late, dropping four of their last five, free falling to 7-6 after a once promising 6-2 start. Injuries have caught up to them, but they still hold their fate in their own hands, as a win here and a strong finish to the season could land them the NFC South division crown.
Atlanta isn’t so fortunate, but given the state of the division, they’ve yet to be mathematically eliminated despite a brutal 1-7 run over their last eight games.
This one looks easy to call, but NFL games rarely go as expected. Could this be the rare case where the best play is obvious, or should bettors look a bit harder? I’ll help you gauge the best bets for this game, as I look over the latest odds and key matchups on my way to a Falcons vs. Buccaneers prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Thursday, December 11th, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:15 pm ET (Prime Video) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL
- Team records entering the game:
- Falcons: 4-9
- Buccaneers: 7-6
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-112) | Buccaneers -4.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Falcons (+195) | Buccaneers (-238)
- Total: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
Atlanta is getting a surprising amount of love for a team that is 4-9 and missing key offensive starters. Regardless, the Buccaneers are logical home favorites when looking at the moneyline and spread, but come in as considerable values.
The game total is rather modest despite Tampa Bay’s propensity for getting in shootout. The offensive talent outweighs the defensive impact for this game, possibly pushing the Over into view as a reliable bet.
Storylines to Watch
There are several Falcons vs. Buccaneers storylines to watch, but the big one is whether Tampa Bay can stop the bleeding and get back on track. They just got upset by a bad Saints team last week, and they are flat-out reeling at the moment.
It’s very possible the Bucs simply aren’t a good team at this point, but they still have a chance to turn their season around. At 7-6, they still control their playoff hopes, but they need to get a very winnable game on TNF first.
Here’s a look at some more key Buccaneers vs. Falcons storylines to watch in this one:
- Return of Mike Evans: Beyond Tampa Bay’s prospects, the biggest storyline to monitor for this game is the possible return to the field for star Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans. He’s missed much of the year with a broken clavicle, but is slated to potentially come back and play on Thursday night.
- Still No Drake: Star wide receiver Drake London has not practiced this week and is slated to once again miss game action. Without him, the Falcons simply can’t challenge Tampa Bay’s pass defense consistently.
- Kirk’s Last Rodeo: On the other side of this game is Kirk Cousins, who has struggled to regain form following a torn Achilles two years ago. He seems washed at this point, but it will be interesting to see if he can turn back the clock and take advantage of a shaky Buccaneers pass defense under the bright lights.
- Bijan Szn: All eyes will probably be on Bijan, as he’s without a doubt Atlanta’s best offensive weapon. He’s been held in check more than the Falcons would like due to a lack of reliable threats around him, but his team needs him to step up if they have any hopes of stealing a big road win on Thursday Night Football.
Team Profiles
Atlanta Falcons
The Dirty Birds got their 2025 season started off with a tough 23-20 loss to these very Buccaneers, so we know they can play them close. They did manage to bounce back and get off to a 3-2 start, but it’s been rough sledding ever since.
Atlanta’s season has been bogged down by big injuries and tough losses. They had a stretch of games where they lost to the Patriots, Colts, and Panthers by a combined 10 points, while losing top quarterback Michel Penix Jr. to a season-ending knee injury was likely the final nail in the coffin.
Perhaps that was last week, actually, when Atlanta couldn’t get anything going in a demoralizing 37-9 loss to the Seahawks.
It looks bad, but the Falcons still have slim playoff hopes if they can win out. They’ve also done some good things in 2025. Here’s a look at where they can find an edge:
- Ground Control: While not perfect, the best part of Atlanta’s offense has undeniably been their ground game. Bijan Robinson hasn’t been able to save the Falcons, but he’s still amassed over 1,000 rushing yards and five TDs. He heads a capable ATL rushing attack that ranks 14th in yards per rush, 12th in rushing yards per game, and 10th in rushing touchdowns per contest.
- Max Protect: Atlanta has surprisingly done a great job with pass protection. They’re allowing just a 4.6% sack rate on the season, which is good for 8th. It’s allowed their quarterbacks to largely avoid turnovers, too, as the Falcons also rank 6th in interception rate.
- Pressure Up Front: In addition to protecting their quarterback, the Dirty Birds generate plenty of pressure on the opposing passer. Atlanta boasts a sick 9.9% sack rate, giving them the third-best pass rush in the NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For a second there, a lot of smart people thought the Buccaneers might be the best team in pro football. The Bucs beat a bunch of nobodies early on, but a 3-0 start still had some people believing, while they tacked on big wins over the 49ers and Seahawks.
Through their first eight games, Tampa Bay’s only losses came to the defending champion Eagles (by six) and the 49ers. On paper, that was a rock-solid team that could compete with (and beat) just about anyone.
Unfortunately, poor health and a tough schedule took over. The Bucs started losing more rapidly, and over the past several weeks, they haven’t been quite as impressive.
While it’s been an up-and-down campaign, the Bucs still control their own destiny, and they’ve done a lot of good on the year. Here’s some key areas where they’ve excelled:
- Protect the Ball: For a team that throws 56% of the time, the Bucs have done a really good job at limiting turnovers. Baker Mayfield’s play has seen a dip recently, but he’s tossed just six picks in 2025, and the Bucs own the NFL’s 5th-best interception rate.
- Mistake Free: In addition to Baker’s (usually) safe play, the team as a whole simply avoids mistakes. You’re looking at the team with the third fewest giveaways overall, while the Bucs commit the 5th fewest offensive penalties of anyone in the league.
- Stop the Run: The Buccaneers have relented on defense a bit in recent weeks, but when they are at full strength and clicking, they have been elite (8th) against the run.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Falcons vs. Buccaneers matchups:
- Falcons rush offense vs. Buccaneers run defense: This could be the key to Atlanta finding a way to stay in this game. The Falcons have to get Bijan going to have a shot, but the Bucs don’t give up a lot of production on the ground.
- Tampa Bay’s rush offense vs. Atlanta’s run defense: The Falcons have an elite pass rush and strong secondary (9th vs. the pass), so Tampa Bay needs to run the ball effectively to win this game. If they don’t, they could become one-dimensional and play right into Atlanta’s key defensive strengths.
- Turnover Battle: I already mentioned how the Bucs take care of the football and avoid silly mental errors, but they also make opposing offenses pay for theirs. Tampa Bay comes into TNF with the 7th most takeaways in the league. That could be bad news for the noodle-armed Cousins.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Falcons | +4.5 (-112) | +195 | Over 44.5 (-105) |
Buccaneers | -4.5 (-108) | -238 | Under 44.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is all over the Buccaneers with 66% of the bets, but they are really liking Atlanta overall with 61% of the money on the Falcons to beat the spread.
- Record History: The Falcons and Buccaneers play in the NFC South and know each other quite well, while the series is shockingly all tied up at 32-32. Something has to break here, but it’s been mostly Falcons of late, with ATL winning four of the last six meetings.
- ATS Tidbits: The Falcons have gone 5-7-1 against the spread in 2025, but they are an elite 4-1-1 ATS as the underdogs and 3-0 ATS as road dogs. Tampa Bay is a weak 5-8 against the spread overall, but they are 2-1 ATS inside the division. That said, they are just 1-5 ATS at home and 2-4 ATS as the favorite.
Best Bets for Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Pick 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS -4.5 (-108) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Bucs feel safer at -230, but I like the value with them winning by five. They’re the way better team in this matchup, and the Falcons got destroyed last week. Getting healthy, at home, and with much more to play for, Tampa Bay should roll.
Risks/What to Watch
This is still a divisional game, and these teams were separated by just three points the last time they faced off. Atlanta also has a tiny shot at the playoffs if they win out, so this game is just as big for them.
Pick 2: Over 44.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Neither defense is particularly scary, and the first meeting totaled 43 points. This total is pretty modest considering the Bucs can put up a good amount of points, yet allow over 25 per game. It won’t quite be a shootout, but Tampa Bay will find a lot of success, and Atlanta simply needs to not be totally inept.
Risks/What to Watch
I have confidence that the Buccaneers will get it done at home in a primetime setting. Trusting Kirk Cousins and the Falcons to hold up their end of the bargain is another thing altogether.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Bucky Irving Anytime TD (+115) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Bucky Irving has been quite involved since returning from injury, totaling 17+ touches in each of his last two games. He’s also found the endzone in both of those games.
Risks/What to Watch
Atlanta has given up quite a bit of production to running backs in 2025 (not to mention 12 total touchdowns), but they’ve been better of late. It’s also always possible Tampa Bay does their scoring through the air or uses Sean Tucker and Rachaad White near the goal-line.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds keep shifting as bettors react to divisional stakes — follow every line move, compare spreads and totals, and lock in top value at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Buccaneers Reclaim Control of NFC South, Down Falcons
I have a weird amount of faith in the Buccaneers in this game. They could disappoint once again just like they did against the Saints last week, but they’re (probably) better than that.
The reality is they definitely are the more talented team going into this Thursday Night Football matchup, and they have a ton to lose in this spot. The fact that they also should get Mike Evans back is a pretty big boon, and I’d look for them to get back on track as they set up a massive final few weeks of football.
Tampa Bay’s moneyline isn’t super appealing, so I’d target the point spread. In addition, I think they put up a good amount of points and get us to the Over, while Bucky Irving should continue to be involved in the scoring side of things.
Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 17
