Chiefs vs. Giants Prediction & Best Bets (September 21, 2025)
The Chiefs and their golden boy, Patrick Mahomes, are not having a good start to the 2025 NFL season. No, sir, Kansas City is in the hole 0-2 and is facing another team that’s in the same boat; the NY Giants are also 0-2.
The two will play on Sunday, Sept. 21, at 8:20 pm at MetLife Stadium in NJ, and one of them will end their losing streak; the other will go deeper into the hole and be 0-3.
The Giants got over 500 yards of offense against Dallas last week, which was one of their most productive outings in years, but still came up short in OT. Their defensive front, usually a huge strength, wore down in the fourth quarter and couldn’t finish drives.
The Chiefs aren’t desperate yet, but they will be if they lose this prime-time game to NY!
What’s the market look like pre-game? DraftKings has Kansas City as a 6-point favorite (-110) with a moneyline of -325. The Giants are priced at +6 (-110) and +260 on the moneyline. The total is set at 45.5, with the Over at -108 and the Under at -112.
Kansas City has to get its offense back on track behind Mahomes and Andy Reid, and the Giants want to convert the home-field energy into an upset bid. It’ll be a doozy, that’s for sure!
Keep reading for the latest betting odds, injury/availability report, main matchups to watch, stat trends, what both teams need to do to win, and what we feel are the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21; kickoff is at 8:20 pm ET
- Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
- How To Watch: Airing on NBC and streaming on Peacock
Betting Odds
Want to wager on the game? Here’s what DraftKings has listed for the odds and lines:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Chiefs | -6 (-108) | -305 | Over 44.5 (-112) |
Giants | +6 (-112) | +245 | Under 44.5 (-108) |
Injury & Availability Report
Who’s playing and who’s out, and how will it affect the game plan? Here’s what we know as of publication:
Kansas City Chiefs
- WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) and WR Jalen Royals (groin) were limited in practice. If either one sits, the Chiefs will lose the vertical speed that stretches coverage.
- LT Donovan Smith is also dealing with an injury, and that raises serious concerns about protecting Mahomes’ blindside.
New York Giants
- LT Andrew Thomas (foot) could return, and that would solidify protection for the QB.
- The WR group is still inconsistent week to week; the depth players are rotating in and out.
- New York’s secondary depth is pretty thin, and that leaves this unit exposed against Kansas City’s passing attack.
Impact on Game
If Thomas plays, the Giants’ offense has a lot more time to work downfield. And for Kansas City, having both Worthy and Royals active is super important; if they’re out? Mahomes will have to rely more on Travis Kelce and shorter routes.
Main Matchups to Watch
Here’s who and what we are watching in the game:
- Mahomes vs. Giants Secondary: Mahomes will push coverage vertically, even if Kansas City is short on receivers. The Giants can’t afford breakdowns in assignment, or he’ll turn modest windows into scoring chances.
- Giants Offensive Line vs. Chiefs Pass Rush: Chris Jones anchors a Kansas City front that can collapse pockets really fast. Andrew Thomas’ return would give New York a better blindside, but interior blocking also has to hold up to keep drives moving.
- Giants Run Game vs. Chiefs Run Defense: If Saquon Barkley and the rotation can get consistent gains, New York can control the tempo and keep Mahomes on the sideline. If the Chiefs stuff early downs? That will force the Giants into predictable passing situations.
- Chiefs WRs vs. Giants Coverage: Because Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals are not at full strength, Kansas City will probably rely heavily on Travis Kelce, and that puts immense pressure on the Giants’ linebackers and safeties to handle mismatches over the middle.
Statistical Trends & Betting Angles
The betting history between the Chiefs and the Giants and their current form give us a decent picture of where the best betting angles could be!
Against the Spread (ATS)
- Kansas City has been pretty reliable in this spot: 13–6 ATS as a road favorite since 2021. But they’ve opened 0–2 ATS this year, which has left bettors burned not once, but twice.
- New York is only 2–6 ATS in its last 8 home games, and four of those losses were by double digits against quarterbacks in the Mahomes/Allen tier.
Totals
- Six of the Chiefs’ last 10 have stayed Under, and that shows there have been slower starts and fewer explosive plays compared to how they played in their peak years.
- The Giants’ last 10 home games have skewed Under when their red-zone offense falters; they’ve averaged only 1.7 TDs per game at MetLife in that time.
Historical Context
- Kansas City has won 4 of its last 5 meetings with NFC opponents by more than a touchdown.
- The Giants have had a really hard time in primetime and nationally spotlighted games.
What the Giants Need to Do to Cover / Win
- Protect the QB: The offensive line has to keep Kansas City’s pass rush from collapsing the pocket. Quick sets, slide protection, and extra help from tight ends or backs are mandatory.
- Mix the run and short passing game: Barkley needs regular touches, but they need to pair it with quick throws to Odunze and Slayton so the Chiefs can’t load up against the run.
- Force red-zone field goals: The Giants need stops inside the 20; holding Kansas City to three points instead of seven keeps the game within reach.
- Win the turnover margin: A takeaway or two gives New York short fields, and that is the best way to keep up with Mahomes. Protecting the ball on offense is just as important.
- Hit vertical shots: Playing everything underneath will not be enough. The Giants have to connect on a couple of deep attempts to stretch Kansas City’s coverage!
What the Chiefs Need to Do to Cover / Win
- Start Fast: Kansas City cannot afford another slow start, so scripted throws to Kelce and early touches for Pacheco can keep its drives on schedule.
- Leverage Kelce in matchups: Because they have limited receivers, Kelce has to be moved around the formation to attack linebackers and safeties who can’t cover him in space.
- Protect Mahomes: The offensive line has to neutralize New York’s edge rush, so expect to see chip blocks from backs and tight ends to buy time on longer routes.
- Limit mistakes: Penalties have stalled out way too many drives in their 0–2 start. Staying disciplined is a non-negotiable if they want to cover a near-touchdown spread.
- Shut down Barkley early: Forcing New York into long-yardage passing downs will let the Chiefs dictate with their pass rush.
Our Best Bets
The Chiefs are the favorite, but the current lines still leave some room for other bets! Here are the four we like:
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Chiefs -6 (-108) | New York’s line is still leaking pressure even with Andrew Thomas trending back. Chris Jones and the front four can collapse plays before they develop, which will give Mahomes extra possessions. | 7.5/10 |
Chiefs (-305) | This is too expensive to play straight, but it is usable as a parlay anchor if you’re stacking sides. | 6/10 |
Over 44.5 (-112) | Kansas City has scored 26+ in 5 of its last 6 vs. NFC teams. The Giants put up 500 yards on Dallas, so even a portion of that output forces this game higher. | 6.5/10 |
Travis Kelce Anytime TD | With Worthy and Royals possibly sitting, Mahomes will keep throwing to his trusty BFF inside the 20. | 8/10 |
The Chiefs Get Back on Track
Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 28 – Giants 17
Kansas City covers the -6 spread and the total edges Over!
Neither team is off to a great start, but only one of them has Mahomes, and it would be a shocker if Kansas City allows 0–3 to happen. That’s one of the biggest reasons we are backing the Chiefs here.
The Giants do have some juice on offense, but their line just cannot hold up against Chris Jones and that pass rush. Mahomes doesn’t need his receivers to be absolutely perfect when he’s got Kelce picking apart coverage. The Giants will stay in it for a bit, but we just can’t see them pulling off a win against KC.
Best Bets Recap
- Chiefs -6 (-108): ★★★★☆ (7.5/10)
- Chiefs ML (-305): ★★★☆☆ (6/10)
- Over 44.5 (-112): ★★★★☆ (6.5/10)
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD: ★★★★★ (8/10)
Gear up for the Chiefs vs Giants Sunday Night Football showdown! Compare spreads, totals, and props with our top football betting sites to secure the best value and maximize your edge.
