Senegal vs. Norway Prediction (6/22/2026)
The best bet for Senegal vs. Norway is Norway on the three-way moneyline at +115 (BetRivers), a Standard Play in this Group I matchday-two meeting at MetLife Stadium. Norway opened with a 4-1 win over Iraq, Erling Haaland already has two goals at this tournament, and a Senegal side that lost to France now has to chase the game. Getting the form team at plus money is the cleaner angle than backing a flat favorite.
Senegal are not short on talent, with Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson leading the attack, but they sit on zero points and a loss here would leave their progression hanging by a thread. Norway, by contrast, can all but book a spot in the next round with a second straight win. The +115 price implies roughly a 47% chance for Norway, the betting market’s read on a game where the favorite tag and the plus number do not usually go together.
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Matchup Overview
This is a near must-win for Senegal and a chance for Norway to take control of Group I. France lead the group on three points after a 3-1 win over Senegal, and Norway sit level on three after dismantling Iraq 4-1. With France facing Iraq in the other matchday-two fixture, the loser of this game risks falling well behind in the race for the knockout rounds.
Norway are at a World Cup for the first time since 1998, and they could hardly have made a louder entrance. Haaland scored twice on his tournament debut, taking his international tally past 50 goals, and captain Martin Odegaard pulled the strings in midfield. Senegal, under head coach Pape Thiaw, were competitive for a half against France before Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise pulled the game away after the break. Pape Thiaw has the players to respond, with Mane and Jackson up front and Ismaila Sarr pushing for his place, but the margin for error is now gone.
Odds & Line Analysis
Norway are narrow +115 favorites on the three-way moneyline, with Senegal at +238 and the draw at +250. The goals total sits at 2.5, and the spread has Norway at -0.5 (+116) against Senegal +0.5 (-134). The numbers below are BetRivers prices, and they are subject to change as kickoff nears.
Vig removed, the betting market reads this as roughly a three-way split: Norway around 44%, Senegal around 28%, and the draw around 27%. That is a market leaning Norway without being convinced, which is exactly why the favorite is still sitting at plus money on the moneyline. If you want to turn any of these three-way prices into an implied probability or a potential payout, our odds calculator handles the conversion in a couple of clicks. The short version on the bet itself: backing Norway here means you need a Norway win in 90 minutes, with a draw counting as a loss.
Key Factors
Three things tilt this toward Norway: Haaland’s red-hot form, the situational squeeze on Senegal, and Norway’s midfield control through Odegaard.
Haaland scored twice on his World Cup debut against Iraq, the 56th and 57th goals of an international career that now sits north of 50 in roughly as many caps. A striker in that kind of touch, against a Senegal back line that France carved up after halftime, is the single biggest reason Norway are favored.
Sitting on zero points after the France defeat, Senegal cannot afford a second loss and still feel comfortable about the group. Teams that have to open up and take risks tend to leave gaps, and that plays into a Norway side built to counter with pace and a finisher who punishes mistakes. The game state should favor the team that can sit a touch deeper and strike. Full preview and predicted lineups are in ESPN’s match preview.
Captain Martin Odegaard set up Norway’s third goal against Iraq with a corner and ran the tempo from midfield. If he and Sander Berge win the central battle, Norway can dictate the rhythm and keep Mane and Jackson starved of clean service. The midfield matchup is where this game is most likely decided.
The Pick
Take Norway on the three-way moneyline at +115. The clear risk is the draw: Senegal have the individual quality to grab a goal and hang on for a point, and at +250 the stalemate is live, which is the main reason this is a Standard Play and not a stronger call. But with Haaland in form, Senegal forced to chase, and Norway controlling midfield through Odegaard, the most probable single result is a Norway win, and getting that at plus money is the value here. A draw-no-bet ticket is a reasonable lower-variance alternative if the stalemate worries you.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Here are quick answers to the most common questions about the Senegal vs. Norway World Cup matchup and our best bet.
What is the best bet for Senegal vs. Norway?
Our best bet is Norway on the three-way moneyline at +115 (BetRivers). Norway won their opener 4-1, Haaland is in form, and Senegal must chase after losing to France, so we are backing the form team at plus money. The market prices Norway at roughly a 44% chance once the vig is removed.
What time is Senegal vs. Norway and where is it being played?
Kickoff is Monday, June 22, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It is a Group I matchday-two fixture at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Why is Norway favored over Senegal if both have star players?
Norway are favored because they won their opener 4-1 while Senegal lost to France, and Erling Haaland already has two goals at the tournament. Senegal also have to push for points, which can leave space for Norway to counter. The draw at +250 is still very much in play, which keeps Norway at plus money.
