Our Picks Track Record & Verified Results
GamblingSite.com grades every betting pick it publishes against the final result and the closing line, then publishes the full ledger here, refreshed every morning after grading. As of 2026 we have graded 362 picks with a verified record of 178-179-5 (wins-losses-pushes).
The number we hold ourselves to is Closing Line Value: across the 241 picks where we captured a closing line, the market has moved toward our side 48% of the time (116/241), and our average closing line value is -0.17%. We publish that number in every state of the sample, flattering or not, because beating the close is the honest long-run test of whether our analysis is finding value before the market moves. We also show win-loss ROI (-9.5% over 362 graded picks), but at this sample size ROI is dominated by variance, so closing line value is what we lead with.
The headline record counts our straight single-game picks; player props and parlays are graded and tracked in their own sections below. The standards behind this grading, including how picks are researched and how mistakes are corrected, are in our editorial guidelines. The full measurement spec, our monthly report issues, and the permanent correction log live in GamblingSite.com Research.
Closing Line Value: The Metric We Grade Ourselves On
Across the 241 picks where we captured a closing line, we beat the close on 116 (48%) with an average closing line value of -0.17%. We publish this number in every state of the sample, good or bad: closing line value is the metric we grade ourselves on long-run. Beating the closing line means the market moved toward our side after we published: the one short-sample signal sharper than wins and losses. We snapshot near-closing lines before each game and compare them to the line we called, automatically, for every pick that has one.
These numbers are only as honest as the closing lines behind them, so the capture pipeline gets audited too. In July 2026 that audit caught a bug: some early snapshots had been taken after games started, which flattered our closing line value. We rebuilt every affected line from an independent odds archive, corrected the ledger retroactively, and any snapshot that cannot be verified as pre-game is now discarded rather than counted. When we find a measurement error, we fix it and say so here.
Our Picks Record by League
Our biggest sample is Tennis, where we are 55-48-2 (-2.74u). The table below breaks down every league we have graded, sorted by how many picks we have posted. Smaller samples swing more, so weight the high-volume leagues most.
Month-by-Month Results
Our most recent graded month is Sep 2026 at 5-5-0 (-0.31u). Tracking results by month keeps us honest about hot and cold stretches instead of cherry-picking a good run.
Results by Confidence Tier
Every pick carries a confidence tier assigned before tip-off, and we grade each tier separately so you can check whether our stated conviction holds up instead of taking it on faith. Tiers with few graded picks swing hard, so weight the bigger samples most.
Player Props Record
Our featured player props are 29-18-0 (+7.47u) so far, tracked separately from the headline record above. A featured prop is one player-stat bet attached to a game pick when the angle is strong enough to publish, graded against the verified box score the same morning as the main pick. Across the 43 props where we captured a closing line, we beat the close on 23 (54%); prop markets move the price more often than the number, and we grade ourselves against both.
Parlay Record
Our parlays are 4-21-0 (-6.33u), settled all-or-nothing at each ticket’s combined odds with one flat unit per ticket. Parlays are high-variance by construction (one lost leg kills the ticket), which is exactly why they are never blended into the headline record. Across all tickets our individual legs have hit 46% (28 of 61 decided legs).
Combined Results Across All Bet Types
Adding every bet type together, single-game picks (-33.80u), player props (+7.47u), and parlays (-6.33u) combine to -32.66u of total profit. We report this combined figure in units of profit only, not as a single blended return: single bets, props, and parlays carry very different variance and stakes, so one ROI percentage across all of them would not be a fair comparison. The headline record above stays single-game bets only.
Units-Weighted Results (Since July 29, 2026)
Starting July 29, 2026 we began weighting new picks by conviction instead of staking every pick the same flat amount. Picks published since the ladder began carry a unit weight: 1.5u Strong Play, 1u Standard Play, 0.75u Lean, 1u props. Under that ladder we are 40-50 for a net of -14.45u on 76.25u staked (ROI -18.95%). Featured props carrying a unit weight are a further 10-5, net +3.42u on 15.00u staked (ROI +22.76%). Units reflect how we weight our own tracked record – not staking advice. The flat $100-per-pick record above remains our headline; this section is additional context, not a replacement for it.
How We Grade Our Picks
Every result on this page uses a flat one-unit stake (no chasing, no martingale) priced at the American odds we called. Wins and losses settle to the final score; pushes are excluded from ROI. The headline record counts straight single-game bets only; player props and parlays are graded the same way but tracked in their own sections (a parlay settles at its combined odds, and a pushed leg drops out and reprices the ticket). Where we have a captured closing line, we also report whether the pick beat the close, which is a better long-run signal than short-sample ROI. These picks are editorial analysis for entertainment, not financial advice, and past results never guarantee future ones.
Ready for today’s action? See our latest free betting picks and predictions, updated daily across every major league. For how our team builds each play, read our sports betting guide.
Play Safe: Gambling should be fun, not stressful. Set limits, stick to your budget, and never chase losses. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-MY-RESET or visit ncpgambling.org. For more resources, see our Responsible Gambling page.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the questions we hear most about this ledger and how it is graded.
Do you delete losing picks from this page?
No. Every graded pick stays in the ledger permanently, wins and losses alike. The record, ROI, and closing line value above are computed from that full ledger, and the month-by-month table means a cold stretch cannot be quietly dropped.
What is closing line value, and why do you lead with it?
Closing line value measures whether the market moved toward our side after we published a pick. Over a few hundred picks, wins and losses are mostly variance, so consistently beating the closing line is the more reliable signal that analysis is finding value before the market does.
How are the results on this page verified?
Every final score is web-verified against authoritative sources before a pick is graded, and each result is priced at the odds we quoted when the pick was published, with a flat one-unit stake. Closing lines are captured automatically before games start, and snapshots that cannot be verified as pre-game are discarded.