RBC Canadian Open Prediction (2026): Odds, Favorites & Best Bet
Our RBC Canadian Open prediction for 2026 is Matt Fitzpatrick to win outright at +1175 with DraftKings, a Standard Play on the only player who has won three times on the PGA Tour this season. Before anything else, the honest math: +1175 means the book gives Fitzpatrick roughly an 8% chance, so this bet loses far more often than it hits. That is the nature of every golf outright in a 144-player field. The job is picking the right 8%, and Fitzpatrick’s profile fits this course and this week better than anyone near his price.
The Canadian Open lands in its familiar spot as the final tune-up before the U.S. Open, and the field showed up: 14 of the world’s top 50 are at TPC Toronto, headlined by four top-10 players in Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Rose and Collin Morikawa. Defending champion Ryan Fox is back to protect the title he won here in a four-hole playoff last June. There are real storylines everywhere; here is how we sort them into one bet.
144-player field · $9.8M purse · The last stop before the U.S. Open
Tournament Overview
The story of this week is a strong field meeting a course that only revealed itself last year. TPC Toronto’s North Course is hosting for the second straight June: a par 70 stretching about 7,400 yards, with par 5s bookending the round at the 1st and 18th, four par 4s over 500 yards, and a tiny crowd-ringed par-3 14th nicknamed “The Rink.” Ryan Fox won the first edition here at 18-under, outlasting Sam Burns on the fourth playoff hole, so the course gives up scores but makes you earn them with long-iron approach play. The PGA Tour’s tournament preview has the full field and tee-time detail.
The timing matters as much as the venue. With Shinnecock looming next week, the top of this field is here to sharpen, not to coast: Fleetwood arrives off a Memorial Sunday where a bogey at the 71st hole cost him the lead and left him T4, Burns closed with a Sunday 69 to share that T4, and Morikawa returns from a month off with a back injury. National pride adds another layer, with Nick Taylor (+4500) carrying the Canadian hopes. It is a deep, motivated board, which is exactly why we anchor on the player who has actually been finishing the job.
Odds and Favorites
DraftKings has Tommy Fleetwood as the +1125 favorite, with Matt Fitzpatrick a tick behind at +1175 and Sam Burns at +1300, then a clear gap back to Collin Morikawa (+2350) and Robert MacIntyre (+2400). The “Implied Chance” column below is the book’s own number with its margin included: even the favorite is priced as a worse-than-1-in-12 proposition, which is the honest frame for every bet on this page.
| Player | Outright Odds | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1125 | ~8.2% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +1175 | ~7.8% |
| Sam Burns | +1300 | ~7.1% |
| Collin Morikawa | +2350 | ~4.1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | +2400 | ~4.0% |
| Odds via DraftKings, captured the morning of June 11, 2026. Implied chance includes the book’s margin. Odds subject to change. | ||
Two reads off that board. First, the top three are bunched tightly enough that the market sees almost no separation between Fleetwood’s knocking, Fitzpatrick’s winning and Burns’ course history; the choice between them is an analytical one, not a price one. Second, the gap from Burns to Morikawa is enormous, which tells you the market treats this as a three-horse week with a deep field of 20-to-1-and-up dart throws behind it.
Key Factors
Three threads run through this pick: Fitzpatrick closes when he gets there, his ball-striking profile matches what this course asks, and the honest variance of a 144-player field keeps it a Standard Play.
Fitzpatrick has won the Valspar, beaten Scottie Scheffler in a playoff at the RBC Heritage, and taken the Zurich Classic with his brother Alex; nobody else on the PGA Tour has three wins in 2026. Fleetwood has five top-10s and zero trophies this season, and his Memorial Sunday (a 71st-hole bogey off the lead) extended a winless run that stretches back to Atlanta last summer. That is a fact about conversion, not a prophecy. When the top of the board is priced this close, we side with the player who has repeatedly finished the deal.
Per the PGA Tour’s stats, Fitzpatrick ranks third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, fifth in SG: Approach and fifth in SG: Around-the-Green this season. TPC Toronto’s North Course asks exactly those questions: roughly 7,400 yards as a par 70, four par 4s over 500 yards, and only two par 5s to feast on. Courses like this reward relentless long-iron precision over raw speed, and that is the core of Fitzpatrick’s game. As the 2022 U.S. Open champion, a demanding tune-up week before Shinnecock suits how he prepares.
Two real knocks. Fitzpatrick has gone T52-T14-T36 since the Zurich win, so the trophies came in the spring and the recent form is lukewarm. And this is his first Canadian Open since 2023, which means he has never played a competitive round at TPC Toronto; Burns, by contrast, went to a playoff at 18-under here twelve months ago. Add a 144-player field where even the favorite’s price implies barely a 1-in-12 chance and the variance is the whole story. This is why the bet is one outright at a measured stake, not a position to build a week around.
The Pick
Back Matt Fitzpatrick to win the RBC Canadian Open at +1175 with DraftKings as a Standard Play. The reasoning in one breath: the board’s top three are priced within a whisker of each other, and Fitzpatrick is the one who pairs an elite tee-to-green season with three closed-out wins, on a course that plays to long-iron precision. If you are newer to futures and outright betting, our sports betting guide covers how these markets work and why stake sizing matters more here than anywhere.
Plain English on the number: the market itself says this wins about once in thirteen tries, and most outright bets lose. We are fine with that trade at this price, the same price-first discipline behind our Brewers vs. Athletics pick earlier today. If you want action elsewhere on the board without another carded bet, the two angles we found most interesting in research were Sam Burns’ course history (a playoff at 18-under here last year, a T4 at the Memorial on Sunday) and Ryan Fox defending at +5600; both stayed off the card because one disciplined outright per tournament is the rule here, not because they lack a case. Whatever you do, treat every golf outright as entertainment-sized risk, never a bankroll position.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to what bettors are asking about this week’s RBC Canadian Open: when and where it runs, who the favorites are, our pick, and how an outright golf bet actually settles.
When and where is the 2026 RBC Canadian Open being played?
The tournament runs Thursday, June 11 through Sunday, June 14, 2026 at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North Course in Caledon, Ontario, about 40 miles outside Toronto. It is a 144-player field with a $9.8 million purse, and it is the final PGA Tour stop before next week’s U.S. Open.
Who is favored to win the RBC Canadian Open this year?
Tommy Fleetwood is the +1125 favorite at DraftKings, just ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick (+1175) and Sam Burns (+1300), with Collin Morikawa next at +2350. Even the favorite’s price implies roughly an 8% chance, which is normal for golf outrights in a full field.
What is the best bet for the RBC Canadian Open?
Our pick is Matt Fitzpatrick to win outright at +1175 as a Standard Play. He is the PGA Tour’s only three-time winner in 2026, ranks third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and the long par-70 setup at TPC Toronto rewards his precision-first profile. It is one measured bet, not a sure thing: the book’s own price implies roughly an 8% chance.
How does an outright golf bet settle if there is a playoff or a withdrawal?
An outright bet wins if your player wins the tournament, including in a playoff, and loses if anyone else does. If your player withdraws before teeing off, most books void the bet and return the stake, while a withdrawal mid-tournament is a loss. House rules vary, so check your sportsbook’s golf settlement terms before betting.
