Cubs vs. Braves Prediction (5/13/2026): Best Bet & Odds
The Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves are priced to a total of 8.5 runs at DraftKings on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at Truist Park, with the Under at -102 and the Over at -118. Our pick is Under 8.5 (-102) — Shota Imanaga has been one of the toughest starters in baseball to score on, the Braves are missing Ronald Acuña Jr. and catcher Sean Murphy from their lineup, and Game 1 of this series finished 5-2 on a one-hitter. First pitch is 7:15 PM ET on MLB.TV.
Chicago comes in at 27-15, leading the NL Central by a comfortable margin but 9-10 on the road. Atlanta sits at 29-13 and owns the best record in MLB — their best start since 2003 — with a 13-6 mark at Truist Park. The Braves took Tuesday’s opener 5-2 behind a Grant Holmes one-hitter and a four-hit night from Dominic Smith. The line that mattered there was the same one that matters tonight: Atlanta’s pitching gave up almost nothing. With Imanaga following Holmes and rookie JR Ritchie matching up against him, this looks more like a 7-run game than a 10-run game.
Truist Park · Atlanta, GA · MLB.TV
Matchup Overview
This is the middle game of a three-game set in Atlanta between two division leaders playing pretty similar baseball lately. Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10. Chicago’s run came off a 10-game winning streak that snapped at Texas over the weekend, where the Cubs were shut out in both losses. Atlanta is coming off a road series win at Dodger Stadium and the opener-night blowout of Chicago, which dropped the Cubs to a sub-.500 road record despite the overall division lead.
The pitching matchup is the lead story. Shota Imanaga, in his second full MLB season, is 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts across 47.1 innings — the kind of line that puts him in the conversation for the best left-handed starter in the National League. His last two starts have produced a single earned run across 13 innings, including a 10-strikeout effort against Cincinnati.
JR Ritchie counters for Atlanta: a rookie right-hander making roughly his third or fourth big-league start after debuting against Washington in late April. Ritchie sits 94 mph on his four-seamer and can touch the upper 90s, his MLB record is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA and 13 strikeouts, and the Braves have covered in each of his starts to date. Talented, but the sample is small enough that the over/under matters more than the pitcher reputation does.
Odds & Line Analysis
DraftKings has the total at 8.5 runs, with the Under priced at -102 and the Over at -118. The moneyline sits at Cubs -136, Braves +113. The run line is Cubs -1.5 at +119 and Braves +1.5 at -143.
The number worth fixating on is the total. The market priced this game at 8.5 with the Under at near-coin-flip juice, which is a tell — books usually price the popular side at -115 or worse, and getting Under 8.5 at -102 says Vegas is more cautious on this number than the public is. ESPN’s BPI gives Atlanta a 53.4% win probability, which conflicts with the moneyline implying Cubs around 57.6%, but the run-total market doesn’t care which team wins. It cares how the pitchers and lineups interact, and that read is cleaner than the side market.
Key Factors
Three things drive the Under here: Imanaga’s run-suppression profile, the Braves lineup playing without two of its three best bats, and a rookie pitcher who has been competent rather than chaotic in his first MLB looks.
Over Imanaga’s last two starts, he has allowed one earned run across 13 innings with 13 strikeouts — including a 10-K outing against the Reds. The full-season line is 2.28 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 53 K in 47.1 IP. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start in 2026 and is averaging just under six innings per outing. Even on a night when the Cubs offense doesn’t show up, Imanaga has been the kind of starter who keeps the opposition under four runs.
Ronald Acuña Jr. (10-day IL through approximately May 18) and starting catcher Sean Murphy (finger) are both unavailable. Matt Olson (15 doubles, 14 home runs) is carrying the heavy lift in the lineup, but the depth piece that turns a 3-run game into a 6-run game — the runs that come from the second and third turn through the order against a starter’s third look — is the part of the offense most affected by losing the regular cleanup hitter and the regular catcher. Dominic Smith had four hits Tuesday, which papered over the absences, but that’s variance, not a pattern.
The standard knock on rookie pitchers is the blowup — the inning where the wheels come off and a 4-run game becomes a 9-run game. Ritchie hasn’t done that yet. His debut against Washington was seven innings, two runs, seven strikeouts. His third start was at home against Seattle. The 3.63 ERA is more about contact management than overwhelming stuff, and the Cubs lineup — led by Nico Hoerner at .273 — doesn’t have the same slugger profile that has historically punished young arms. A rookie who pitches to soft contact against a contact-oriented lineup is a recipe for a 6-inning, 3-run start, not a 4-inning, 7-run meltdown.
The Pick
The Pick: Under 8.5 (-102) at DraftKings. The cleanest read on this game is the total, not the side. Imanaga is one of the better arms in baseball at run prevention right now, the Braves are short two of their primary run-producers, and Ritchie has shown he can keep games tight even when he doesn’t dominate. Game 1 finished 5-2. A similar 4-3 or 5-2 scoreline gets this number with room to spare. The Over needs both lineups to push at least one big inning, and there’s no specific reason in the matchup tape to expect it.
If you’d rather take a side, the lean is Cubs ML at -136 on the strength of the Imanaga-Ritchie matchup, but ESPN’s BPI gives the Braves a 53.4% edge that argues the price is more accurate than it looks. The Under bypasses that disagreement entirely. For more on how to think about run totals, see our over/under betting guide. The full picks page has the rest of tonight’s slate, and current standings are at the MLB.com standings page.
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Frequently Asked Questions
A few quick answers to questions readers have been asking about tonight’s Cubs at Braves game and the Under 8.5 pick.
What time is Cubs vs. Braves on May 13, 2026?
First pitch is 7:15 PM ET on Wednesday, May 13, 2026 at Truist Park in Atlanta. The game streams on MLB.TV. It’s the middle game of a three-game series, with Atlanta leading 1-0 after winning the opener 5-2 on Tuesday.
Who is pitching for the Cubs and Braves tonight?
Shota Imanaga starts for the Cubs. He’s 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts in 47.1 innings across eight starts in 2026. JR Ritchie starts for the Braves. Ritchie is a rookie right-hander making roughly his third or fourth big-league start, with a 1-0 record and a 3.63 ERA so far.
What is the over/under for Cubs vs. Braves tonight?
DraftKings has the total set at 8.5 runs, with the Under priced at -102 and the Over at -118. The moneyline is Cubs -136 and Braves +113. Lines can move between now and first pitch, so check the live number before placing a bet.
Is Ronald Acuña Jr. playing tonight?
No. Acuña is on the 10-day injured list and isn’t expected back until around May 18. Starting catcher Sean Murphy is also out with a finger injury. Both absences thin the middle of Atlanta’s lineup, which is one of the reasons we like the Under in this matchup.
What is the best bet for Cubs vs. Braves on May 13?
Our pick is Under 8.5 total runs at -102 on DraftKings. Imanaga has allowed just one earned run over his last 13 innings, the Braves are missing two of their best bats, and Ritchie has been efficient in his early MLB starts. Game 1 of this series finished 5-2 for seven total runs, and the matchup signals point to a similar low-volume scoreline.
