Golden Knights vs. Ducks Prediction (5/14/2026): Game 6 Pick, Odds & Best Bet
Game 6 of the Western Conference Second Round has the Vegas Golden Knights traveling to Anaheim trying to close out a series they lead 3-2, but our pick is the Anaheim Ducks on the moneyline at -108 at BetMGM. Home teams are 5-0 straight up in this series, the Ducks are 2-0 at Honda Center with last change, and an elimination spot at home with Lukas Dostal in net is the cleanest play on the board Thursday night. Under 6.5 goals (-140) is the secondary look.
Vegas earned its 3-2 series lead on Pavel Dorofeyev’s overtime winner at 4:10 of OT in Game 5 on Tuesday, with Dorofeyev skating on the top line alongside Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev in place of the injured Mark Stone. Anaheim now faces elimination at Honda Center, where it has outplayed Vegas through two games this series. Puck drops at 9:30 PM ET on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max, with a potential Game 7 looming Saturday in Las Vegas.
Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Matchup Overview
The story of this series is home ice. Through five games, the home team has won every time — Vegas took Games 1, 3, and 5 at T-Mobile Arena, and Anaheim took Games 2 and 4 at Honda Center. The Ducks are 2-0 at home with a 7-4 aggregate goal differential, beating Vegas 3-1 in Game 2 and 4-3 in Game 4 (with Mark Stone out). Now they get the building back with their season on the line, last change in their pocket, and a goaltender in Lukas Dostal who has played all five series games without being pulled.
Vegas had Stone leave Game 3 with a lower-body injury, then watched Anaheim even the series in Game 4 before Pavel Dorofeyev’s OT winner stole Game 5. Defensemen Brayden McNabb is out through May 16, and Stone’s status for Game 6 is day-to-day per the most recent team update. Anaheim is without Ryan Poehling (out through May 18), with Drew Helleson and Radko Gudas listed day-to-day on the blue line. The Ducks’ top six — Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Olen Zellweger driving the offense from the back end — has matched up well at home, and Dallas Eakins’s group has been more comfortable getting the matchups it wants when it controls the bench.
Odds & Line Analysis
The market has this game as a near pick’em, which is meaningful. BetMGM has Anaheim at -108 on the moneyline with Vegas at -112, the total sits at 6.5 priced Under -140 / Over +110, and the puck line is Vegas -1.5 (+220) / Anaheim +1.5 (-270). A home team facing elimination usually draws a heavier juice tag than this — the fact that the Ducks aren’t a clear favorite at home in a must-win spot tells you the market is splitting between Vegas’s series lead and Anaheim’s home-ice signal.
The total at 6.5 with Under priced -140 is the other tell. The Under has cashed in three of five series games — Games 1, 2, and 5 all finished at or below 6 goals — and both Honda Center games have been one-goal results in regulation (Game 2 finished 3-1, Game 4 finished 4-3). Game 6 with an elimination team almost always tightens defensively, and the market reflects that. If you want exposure on the total, the Under is the side, but the price is shaved.
Key Factors
Three angles are doing most of the work in this pick: home-ice in a series that has had zero road wins, Mark Stone’s day-to-day status on Vegas’s top line, and the matchup advantage Anaheim gets with last change at Honda Center. The Ducks aren’t a better team than Vegas on paper, but the conditions for an upset are stacked.
Every game in this series has been won by the home side. Vegas swept its three games at T-Mobile (3-1, 6-2, 3-2 OT), and Anaheim has held serve at Honda Center (3-1, 4-3). Last change matters in playoff hockey, and both staffs have leaned into it. The Ducks won’t have to chase the Eichel-Dorofeyev-Barbashev line in Game 6 the way they did on the road.
Stone left Game 3 in the first period with a lower-body issue, missed Game 4 (Vegas lost 4-3), and was day-to-day entering Game 5. Pavel Dorofeyev has filled in next to Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev capably — including the OT winner Tuesday — but Vegas is still managing a thinner top-six on the road. Final lineup confirmation typically lands at morning skate or warmups, so check before puck drop.
Lukas Dostal has started every game of this series and gave up only two goals in Game 5 (one in OT). He hasn’t been pulled. The Ducks’ season ends if they don’t win, and Dostal is the kind of goaltender who can steal a single game — exactly what Anaheim needs. Vegas projects to start Akira Schmid per the ESPN matchup page, though that’s unconfirmed; if it shifts to Adin Hill, the goalie edge tilts back, but the underlying spot doesn’t change.
The Pick
Take the Anaheim Ducks on the moneyline at -108. The home team has won every game in this series, the Ducks are 2-0 at Honda Center, last change with Dostal in net in an elimination game is the strongest combination the market can offer at near-pick’em pricing, and Vegas is closing on the road with a top-line winger who hasn’t been cleared.
The Under 6.5 (-140) is the secondary play if you prefer totals — three of five games have stayed under and Game 6s tighten — but the Ducks ML is the cleaner number. Treat this as a Standard Play, not a hammer. Vegas can absolutely close on the road; we just think the price doesn’t reflect the spot.
For more on how moneyline pricing works in tight playoff games, see our moneyline betting guide. If you’re new to puck-line wagering, our sports betting hub walks through how NHL spreads price favorites and dogs. Previously in this series: our Game 4 prediction and Game 5 prediction.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most-asked questions about Vegas at Anaheim Game 6, including start time, lineup notes, current odds, and what happens after Thursday.
Who is favored to win Game 6 between the Golden Knights and Ducks?
The Vegas Golden Knights are very slight favorites on the moneyline at around -112, with the Anaheim Ducks at -108 at BetMGM. The market is effectively a pick’em — Vegas has the 3-2 series lead, but Anaheim has home ice and is 2-0 at Honda Center in this series. Our pick is the Ducks moneyline.
What time does Vegas vs. Anaheim Game 6 start and where can I watch it?
Game 6 starts at 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, May 14, 2026 at Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The game is broadcast nationally on TNT, truTV, and HBO Max in the United States.
Is Mark Stone playing for the Golden Knights in Game 6?
Mark Stone is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury that he aggravated in Game 3. He missed Game 4, and his Game 6 availability is expected to be confirmed at morning skate or pregame warmups. Pavel Dorofeyev has filled in on the top line with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev and scored the Game 5 overtime winner.
What is the over/under for Vegas vs. Anaheim Game 6?
The total is set at 6.5 goals, priced Under -140 / Over +110 at BetMGM. Three of the five series games have finished under 6.5 goals, and both Honda Center games have been one-goal results in regulation, which is why the Under is shaded so heavily.
What happens if the Ducks win Game 6 against the Golden Knights?
If Anaheim wins Game 6, the series goes to a decisive Game 7 on Saturday, May 16 at 5 PM ET on ESPN, played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. If Vegas wins, the Golden Knights advance to the Western Conference Final.
