2026 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds, Predictions & Best Bets
The NFL Rookie of the Year market is one of the softest futures bets available at online sportsbooks. Why? Because roles aren’t fully defined yet, and nobody really knows who the main threats are outside of the betting favorite.
Heck, we don’t even know if the #1 pick – quarterback Fenrando Mendoza – will make starts for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026. The lack of concrete knowledge surrounding his status and an overall weak draft class creates serious value with the top favorite, as well as virtually every other option after him.
Ready to bet on who will win the 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year award? Prices will never be better than they are right now, and DraftKings already has odds up for you to attack. I’ll go over the latest pricing, analyze the current favorite, identify top contenders, and make a final 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year prediction.
Latest 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | NFL ROY Odds |
|---|---|
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals | +250 |
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Las Vegas Raiders | +350 |
Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans | +500 |
Jordy Tyson, WR, New Orleans Saints | +600 |
Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks | +750 |
Makai Lemon, WR, Philadelphia Eagles | +950 |
Carson Beck, QB, Arizona Cardinals | +1500 |
Omar Cooper Jr., WR, New York Jets | +1800 |
Kenyon Sadiq, TE, New York Jets | +1800 |
KC Concepcion, WR, Cleveland Browns | +2500 |
Above are the 10 most likely candidates to win the NFL Rookie of the Year award based on the latest odds at DraftKings. The pricing checks out, as Love is regarded by most draft pundits as the best player in this draft class, while Mendoza was the top pick by the Raiders.
The problem up top isn’t talent; it’s role and landing spot. It’s likely that Love will be the main guy in Arizona’s backfield, but the team does have a bit of a logjam at the position. Then there’s the case of Mendoza, as the Raiders went out of their way to add veteran passer Kirk Cousins to their quarterback room.
Love’s role is probably fine, but will he find enough success behind Arizona’s shaky offensive line? The Cardinals allowed 59 sacks in 2025, and they didn’t move mountains for a rushing attack that ranked 28th in rushing scores, 31st in yards per game, 32nd in rushes per game, and 15th in yards per rush.
Perhaps Love’s arrival cures what ails the Cardinals. His draft spot and NFL ROY odds indicate that’s not a terrible bet, but if the o-line isn’t better, could he just find himself in the same situation Ashton Jeanty dealt with last year?
Jeanty may have been the best player from last year’s draft class, but poor o-line play and in turn, weak overall production, kept him from winning the trophy. These are things to consider before betting on this year’s NFL Rookie of the Year winner, and why basically everyone after Love and Mendoza immediately becomes somewhat viable.
But who is the most viable? Who are the true NFL Rookie of the Year contenders, and who will actually win it in 2026? I’ll go over all of that, but first, let’s look at what goes into winning the NFL ROY award.
How the NFL Rookie of the Year Award is Actually Won
If you want to beat this market, you need to understand how NFL ROY voters think, not just who the most talented players are.
There’s specific criteria to apply (or project) as well, so let’s go over what makes an NFL Rookie of the Year winner.
Doesn’t this seem to be the case with basically every NFL award? Probably, but it’s important to note that if a quarterback is viable, they’re probably winning.
Tet McMillan interrupted that trend last year, but Jayden Daneisl and CJ Stroud won the previous two years, and a passer has locked up the ROY hardware four times in the past seven years.
All-time, a quarterback has claimed 11 of these since 2004. That doesn’t make it as lopsided as the NFL MVP, but the voters aren’t going to ignore a special season from a passer. The time to look for value with a non-QB is when the talent is legit, and there aren’t numerous quarterbacks who look like great bets.
Considering Mendoza is one of just two first-round quarterbacks this year – and early signs suggest neither will start initially – betting on another position this season does make sense.
Voters don’t really care about yards per carry or advanced metrics. Perhaps they could turn to them if the NFL Rookie of the Year race is a close call, but overall volume and production is the big winner here.
Besides, voters know that players can’t help where they’re drafted. Naturally, if someone like Love comes in and dominates with 1,000+ rushing yards and 10 touchdowns – but his yards per carry average is weak – voters might ignore that due to his o-line being a question mark.
Overall, voters are looking for the players who simply produce the best. The guys with the most yards, touchdowns, marquee moments, and biggest impact for their franchise are going to have a leg up.
The best players go to the worst teams usually, but sometimes it makes sense to bet on players who are in brutal spots. Big workloads on bad teams can mean more passing volume for quarterbacks and wide receivers, which naturally produces bigger numbers.
Conversely, you can be an elite talent on a good team and struggle due to that team’s depth at the position. Running backs can also have a difficult time getting going if the blocking in front of them isn’t up to par.
Truly elite talent can overcome negative situations, but this can still factor into who wins this race – and how you’ll want to bet.
Pre-draft narratives, landing spots, and ultimate team success can also all play into who wins the NFL Rookie of the Year award. We know who the big names are coming into the NFL Draft, so right away, big names like Love, Mendoza, and Tate are on everyone’s radar.
They’ll be in the mix for quite a while, even if the numbers aren’t there. Then the mid-season narratives start forming, and team success can begin to factor into how people will vote.
Why is Jeremiyah Love the 2026 NFL ROY Favorite?
There is one standalone favorite to win the NFL Rookie of the Year right now. The price gap isn’t wide, but Arizona Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love is the clear frontrunner.
Why is he such a good bet? Because he’s a dynamic stud running back who can impact the game both as a rusher and a receiver. He could provide elite balance to an Arizona team that has shaky play under center and was not productive at all on the ground in 2025.
Love checks every major box voters will be looking for:
- Strong early narrative
- Elite draft capital
- Dynamic & explosive
- Path to massive role
- Path to elite production
- Could elevate a bottom-5 offense
An exciting player with explosiveness and versatility in his back pocket, Love could be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and help unlock Arizona’s offense.
With no quarterback clearly standing in his way and Love dominating the top of an extremely weak running back class, he only has two legit obstacles.
First, Arizona’s weak o-line can’t prevent him from racking up numbers. Secondly, he needs to hope his production trumps whatever the top receiving options in this draft class can generate.
As things stand, Love absolutely is in the lead to win this award, which honestly makes his price at +250 rather shocking.
Top NFL Rookie of the Year Contenders
Jeremiyah Love is the NFL ROY favorite, and I have to say, it probably shouldn’t be this close. If I had to recommend a bet this very second, I’d hammer Love to win, and I’d never look back.
But the pricing is actually pretty tight, so it demands we turn over every stone. With that, let’s look at the top three contenders for this award.
Fernando Mendoza (+350)
Mendoza is the #1 overall pick and the only viable quarterback bet for this award right now. There are a couple of other passers with faint cases in the unlikely event they find themselves starting games, but if you’re looking to bet on a QB to win NFL Rookie of the Year, it’s Mendoza or bust.
The upside is obvious, as Mendoza is a proven winner who was insanely accurate and poised. He also helped the Indiana Hoosiers win the national title, and he’s perhaps the most likable incoming prospect the 2026 NFL Draft has to offer.
The downside is he’s playing for the Raiders, and we can’t exactly emphasize “playing”.
Word out of Las Vegas is that Kirk Cousins will start for as long as he’s able this year, which means the Raiders have interest in bringing Mendoza along slowly and ensuring they don’t ruin his development.
He’s a compelling leverage bet in the event Cousins gets hurt or is benched, while it’s always possible he simply is too good for Las Vegas to ignore this summer.
Carnell Tate (+500)
Next up is Tate, who was an explosive receiving threat for the Ohio State Buckeyes and figures to walk into a prominent role with the Tennessee Titans.
A wide receiver did win the NFL Rookie of the Year award last year, and we’ve seen a WR win it three of the last five years, so this isn’t crazy. This is also part of what I’d call a sheer volume bet at the position, seeing as wide receiver was incredibly deep this year.
Tate’s clear downside is that he could require some time to fully adapt to the NFL level. That said, the size, explosiveness, and playmaking ability are there, and second-year passer Cam Ward could definitely use downfield magic.
After struggling to generate offense last year, a Titans team with new coaching across the board is clearly hoping to push the envelope with their passing attack. If Tate helps them cash in on that plight, he could put up big numbers and end up being a steal at his +500 price tag.
Jordyn Tyson (+600)
I’ll stop my NFL Rookie of the Year contenders shortlist at Tyson, who is walking into a sizable role with a maturing New Orleans Saints offense.
There are big risks here, as Tyson has some injury concerns, and he could play second fiddle to Chris Olave in his first year on the job. There’s also some mild concern that the Saints will continue to be bad, while many aren’t sold they have a true franchise passer to go to war with.
All viable concerns, but Tyson was made the 8th overall pick for a reason; he moves up the field with little effort, is highly explosive, and has the overall talent to dominate games and elevate an offense.
New Orleans was already making strides through the air last year, too, while head coach Kellen Moore knows how to maximize legit offensive talent. I don’t fear Tyson’s role or productivity, but the checkered injury history and target competition are the big roadblocks despite the nice odds.
Best NFL Rookie of the Year Value Picks for 2026
I think you could slap the “value” label on everyone I’ve detailed so far, but as we move further, the prices start jumping to the point where your eyes bulge, and the jaw starts to drop.
All things considered, these are the truly elite values that don’t just have nice prices, but could have a clear path to unleash on the NFL in their first seasons.
Jadarian Price (+750)
The Seattle Seahawks made Price the last pick of the first round this year, which allowed him to make some history. Price not only was just the second RB selected in round one this year, but he also came from the same team as the only other back drafted that early.
That’s pretty unique territory, and to be fair, this is a reflection both on Price being the second-best running back in this draft class and this draft class also being remarkably weak at the position.
How you view that is open for debate, but the point is Price was worth the selection for the defending Super Bowl champions. Not only did Seattle let Kenneth Walker III leave in free agency, but they don’t know which Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL) will be ready to return.
Seattle was left without a legit starting running back, but they got one in Price. I know Love feels like the slam dunk bet – and he is – but if ever there was a leverage bet with a unique narrative, Jadarian Price is it.
Makai Lemon (+950)
This wide receiver class is pretty loaded, but while Tate and Tyson are studs with good odds, Lemon is a stud with an even better price tag.
Playing out of the slot might just allow Lemon to make a bigger impact faster than those guys, too, while the Eagles are endlessly rumored to move on from disgruntled WR A.J. Brown.
Naturally, Brown being traded would part the seas and allow Lemon to establish himself pretty quickly for a playoff contender.
Once Brown does depart, DeVonta Smith is all that stands in Lemon’s way from having a truly special rookie campaign. I can’t say with certainty that he’ll end with numbers that best the WRs ahead of him, but at his price point, he does feel like a more interesting bet.
Kenyon Sadiq (+1800)
I also don’t mind Omar Cooper Jr., who shares the same odds as new teammate Kenyon Sadiq, and is part of this stacked wide receiver class that seemingly has no end.
It’s worth noting that the Jets did trade back into the first round to get Cooper, too, and he’s definitely not someone lacking talent or college production.
But who did they draft first? That’d be freak athlete Kenyon Sadiq, who is best known at the moment for running the fastest 40-yard dash ever recorded by a tight end at the NFL Combine.
Sadiq was productive last year for Oregon and profiles as a dynamic and explosive tight end that can unleash damage as a total mismatch, but can also make an impact as a blocker.
If that ends up holding firm at the NFL level, Sadiq may not have to wait long to play – and make a huge impact. Should that happen, we could be looking at the first tight end to win this award in league history.
Viable NFL Rookie of the Year Longshot Bets
- Kaelon Black (+3000)
- Ty Simpson (+3500)
- Drew Allar (+5000)
- Chris Bell (+7500)
Once you start getting past those +1800 price points, a cliff approaches in a hurry. Don’t get me wrong, there are some underrated prospects in this year’s class, but it’s hard to imagine anyone outside of the top-10 really making a run here.
If someone did, I think they might come from this group of longshot bets. Black starts us off at +3000 just because he’s walking into one of the best offensive systems in pro football.
Joining the San Francisco 49ers puts Black on everyone’s radar just because he actually could have a path to an early role. On top of that, Christian McCaffrey touched the ball a ton last year and is now another year older. Is it outlandish to think C-Mac could succumb to injuries once again, and Black takes over and crushes in Kyle Shanahan’s system? I don’t think so.
Two quarterbacks could have a path to major playing time, too. Ty Simpson is probably the best overall longshot bet based on where he was drafted, as well as his college production. He was perhaps the only passer in this draft class that could have rivaled Mendoza, and the Rams clearly liked him since they invested the 13th overall pick in him.
Matthew Stafford still exists, but he’s 38 now and inching toward retirement. Is it silly to think his age and lack of mobility could lead to injury and open the door to Simpson taking over in year one? Of course not.
Drew Allar is in play, but to a much lesser extent. Aaron Rodgers returning to the Pittsburgh Steelers is one of the worst-kept secrets in pro football, but what if he doesn’t return? Or what if he does, but his 42-year-old body can’t withstand the hits? We could see Allar make starts early on, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess how he performs.
The most shocking value bet of them all might be new Miami Dolphins wideout Chris Bell. The Dolphins are breaking in a new franchise passer in Malik Willis, but until the draft, they really didn’t get him a ton of help.
After trading away Jaylen Waddle and letting Tyreek Hill walk, Miami brought in guys like Jalen Tolbert and Tutu Atwell. Not exactly world beaters! Naturally, the door could be wide open for third-round rookie Chris Bell, depending on how his recovery from a torn ACL goes.
Best Bets to Win 2026 NFL Rookie of the Year
- Best Bet: Jeremiah Love (+250)
- Top Value: Jadarian Price (+750)
- Best Longshot: Ty Simpson (+3500)
I would definitely pay close attention to Fernando Mendoza’s situation all year. For now, it seems he’ll sit, so putting big money on him early feels a bit rash. But we can always adjust later in the year if things change.
In the event Love’s odds gain steam, and suddenly Mendoza turns into the guy, then we can hedge a bit. But Love stands out as the clear-cut winner right now. From a talent, role, and production perspective, he looks quite capable of passing every test out of the gates.
Oddly enough, it’s fellow Notre Dame alum that feels like the best leverage bet and overall value. Price isn’t nearly as talented, but he’s an explosive player who was productive with the role he had with the Fighting Irish. And most importantly, he’s walking into an amazing spot with a strong team that is looking to defend their title.
If Price comes out and wins the job and puts up comparable numbers to Love, how is he not in the running?
Lastly, Simpson is the longshot bet that makes the most sense. He’s immensely talented, the Rams clearly are very high on him, and Stafford is 38 years old. If Stafford goes down, Simpson would enter an offense that grades out as a top-5 situation for any quarterback.
NFL Rookie of the Year Betting Strategy
If you want to bet on who will win the NFL Rookie of the Year, now is a great time to do so. I’d just temper expectations, limit your betting volume, and keep the following tips and strategy in mind:
| Strategy | Details |
|---|---|
Bet Early (Not Blindly) | This NFL Rookie of the Year betting guide should help quite a bit, but you still need to project where players will be later in the year. Current pricing suggests that for you to a degree, but identifying weak spots in the odds is how you locate value before everyone else sees it. |
Build a Portfolio | Love deserves most of our attention, and that’s where I’d focus much of my energy (and funds), but hedging with other bets does make sense. I’d target mostly the guys I’ve mentioned, with someone like Price or one of the WRs standing out the most as a second option to wager on. |
Monitor Early Usage | You can always bet on the NFL ROY winner again, as injuries, production, team success, and player production can and will dictate pricing. If Love gets hurt or is really bad initially, we can leverage our early bet by looking elsewhere based on roles. |
2026 NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Who Will Win it This Year?
Jeremiyah Love (+250)
If we knew for sure that Mendoza was starting from day one, I think he’d look like the better value. He has a really good coaching staff around him, and with studs like Jeanty and Brock Bowers at his disposal, I think he’d be a strong bet.
However, as things stand, this is Love’s award to lose. Arizona did not draft this guy at 3rd overall to let him sit behind James Conner and Tyler Allgeier. Love will get the ball early and often as a rookie, and his chances of winning this award come down to just how productive he can be.
I think volume is king, while Love’s explosive and dynamic play means he can accrue plenty of stats and impact the game as both a rusher and receiver. Jeanty failed in this same spot last year, but I think Love can get it done.
Bet on Love to win early, and we can adjust our bets later in the summer when we have more information on all of the top contenders.
