Best MLB Home Run Prop Picks Today – Friday’s Top HR Props (4/24/2026)
Friday night baseball is built for fireworks; the long ball variety. If you’re hunting for MLB home run props, this is one of the best spots of the week to find maximum value.
Tonight, we have some nice weather impacting a few spots, a few good ballparks in action, and some pitchers toeing the rubber that give up the power we crave. Which bats grade out the best, offer betting value, and look like strong bets to go yard? That’s where I come in.
I’ll combine all factors and produce a shortlist of MLB home run prop picks I think have a terrific chance of hitting. In addition, I’ll offer proper reasoning and context, as well as a pivot bet.
Want to know who will hit a home run today? Let’s find out with Friday’s top MLB home run picks:
Quick MLB HR Picks for Friday
| Player/Team | Opposing Pitcher | HR Odds | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | Jameson Taillon | +201 | Safe |
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | Emmet Sheehan | +600 | Value |
Luke Keaschall (MIN) | Drew Rasmussen | +1280 | Longshot |
Here’s a quick-hitting list of my top MLB HR picks for today. You get tiered bets that all offer varying levels of value, but every single play has sound reasoning as far as why they have a real shot at paying off.
Ohtani leads the pack and is the easiest click of the lot, but if you’re hunting for solo MLB home run bets, you might want a little more upside. You can also pair two of these three bets together at MLB betting sites like DraftKings or go even harder with a full three-man parlay.
Want to know why these MLB home run picks look good? I break each down in great detail below, while also offering additional MLB HR picks that you can pivot to if you so desire.
The Safest MLB Home Run Prop Pick Today – Shohei Ohtani (+201)
Was it ever going to be anyone else? Perhaps you could argue that this one is a cop out, but hey, Ohtani doesn’t dong one out of the park every single day. Some days look more inviting than others, and oftentimes, we don’t get the price where it’s at here at DraftKings.
But today really feels like a good day to bet on Ohtani to go yard. The guy has knocked five long balls into the stands already this year, and we know the torrid pace he can get on. But there’s more, as Dodger Stadium currently ranks as the #1 park for home runs so far in 2026.
The weather also looks good, with it being sunny and 67 degrees in L.A., with the wind blowing out to centerfield at 9 miles per hour.
If you need more reasoning to back Ohtani, let’s look at the matchup with Jameson Taillon, who is allowing a disturbing .317 ISO with a 43% fly ball rate to lefties so far this year. Ohtani’s K rate is pretty high (26%), but he brings a sick .339 ISO to the table and has a 71% hard hit rate.
This is a bad spot for Taillon across the board and an excellent time to bet on Ohtani to hit a home run.
Pivot Pick: Max Muncy (+310)
If you want a little more value but don’t want to bet on a chalky MLB home run pick like Ohtani, just target other Dodgers bats. The matchup and park factor still applies, while they have a murderer’s row of lefty sticks to choose from.
Why not up the price to +310 with Muncy, who has launched eight balls into the stands this year already and offers L.A.’s second-best ISO (.257) against right-handed pitching?
Muncy is the pivot here, but the pricing only gets more appealing as you go through the rest of the lineup. Freddie Freeman (+360) and Kyle Tucker (+586) offer even more value and wield big bats that could get you there, just the same.
Friday’s Best Home Run Value Bet – Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600)
We’re staying in Dodger Stadium for my favorite MLB HR value bet of the day. All the same reasons apply here, but we can flip to the other side of this game and have some fun with the Chicago Cubs.
The weather and park factor are backing PCA as a strong MLB home run pick from the jump, but the matchup on the mound also looks pretty appealing. Don’t get me wrong, Emmet Sheehan is a talented young pitcher, but the power issues could be problematic in this spot.
To be specific, Sheehan is allowing a gross .380 ISO to left-handed hitters these days, along with a .458 wOBA. To his credit, he’s keeping the fly balls in check, but a 50% hard hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate isn’t encouraging.
Crow-Armstrong has not found his power so far in 2026, but we know it’s there based on what he did last year in a breakout campaign.
If Crow-Armstrong can rediscover his pop in the perfect set-up, he could put a strong .238 ISO to good use. It’s right there, ripe for the plucking, but it simply hasn’t translated yet this year.
Tonight is a pretty great time to bet on it happening.
Pivot Pick: Michael Busch (+518)
Busch cranked out a long ball last night, but there’s nothing anywhere that says he can’t dong in successive games. Busch has the same exact matchup in front of him, and he sports a cool .186 ISO with a low 9.6% strikeout rate.
Busch is a more patient and more powerful hitter so far this year, but we’re admittedly taking a step back in terms of raw power. I also don’t mind taking shots on guys like Ian Happ (+415) or even Seiya Suzuki (+421) – who has homered in three consecutive games – but ideally we’re attacking Sheehan from the left side of the plate.
Longshot HR Pick for 4/24 – Luke Keaschall (+1280)
They don’t call it a longshot home run pick for no reason. This one is out there, seeing as Keaschall just hasn’t displayed much power so far in 2026 (.058 ISO).
But the odds are a dream for bettors, and there’s enough here that gets me excited. I think the price alone makes it viable, but let’s consider the matchup and Keaschall’s previous history.
The park factor is pretty middling, so that shouldn’t sway us either way. But the Twins slugger will go up against Drew Rasmussen, who is making bats miss at a 29% clip against lefties, but he’s struggling with power (.222 ISO) against that side of the plate.
In addition, left-handed hitters are registering a 32% fly ball rate and a 45% hard hit rate against Rasmussen. All of that sounds plenty attackable, while Keaschall’s sparkling 12.7% strikeout rate against righties leads Minnesota’s offense.
He’s clearly traded power for efficiency to start the year, but let’s not forget he sported a solid .163 ISO last year. It’s a true longshot, but everything lines up to get Keaschall a chance at capitalizing on a solid hitting environment on Friday night.
Pivot Pick: Steven Kwan (+1220)
There are not many longshot bets where the price really demands a double-take, especially when they’re actually quality hitters. Kwan is not known for his power (at all), but he doesn’t strikeout, he’s a patient hitter, and he knows how to establish contact.
All of that could help him out in a big way in tonight’s matchup, as he faces a struggling and aging Max Scherzer. Mad Max can still deal in spurts, but the power issues are still an issue.
Scherzer is probably best attacked from the right side if we are only going off of his 2026 splits, but he’s still allowing a .179 ISO to lefties this year (.289 last year). He’s giving up a 29% fly ball rate or higher to everyone, and the Ks are way down against lefties (11%).
We’re also getting a nice park, as this game is at Rogers Centre, which ranks 7th in home run factor. It’s still a dicey bet, to be sure, but the park, pitching matchup, and pricing make this a fun one to cap the week off with if you don’t want to go after a Keaschall bomb.
Strategy & Tips for Predicting MLB Home Runs
You’ve seen my top MLB home run picks for today, but the real edge comes from understanding why those plays stand out. Home run betting isn’t random—it’s about identifying the right combination of power, matchup, and environment.
If you want to consistently find value in MLB HR props, you need to lean on data and situational factors. By focusing on the key elements below, you can improve your process and put yourself in a much better position to land winning bets.
To put yourself in the best position possible, focus on the following key factors:
- Weather Impact – Look for games with warm temperatures and wind blowing out, as both can significantly boost home run potential.
- Exploit Bad Pitching – Target pitchers who struggle to limit power, especially those with poor splits, low strikeout rates, or high fly ball tendencies.
- Pay Attention to Splits – Don’t just evaluate the pitcher. Dive into hitter metrics like ISO, hard hit rate, strikeout rate, and fly ball rate to identify true power upside.
- Note the Park Factor – Ballpark dimensions and conditions play a major role in home run production. Some parks naturally inflate power numbers, so be sure to factor that into your decision.
Betting on MLB Home Runs on Friday
Top MLB Home Run Pick for Today: Shohei Ohtani (+201)
Sometimes the best bet is the most obvious bet. I think that’s the case on Friday, as my favorite MLB home run pick is easily Shohei Ohtani to send one into the cheap seats.
Ohtani is always a flight risk, and everything sets up for him to deliver tonight. The price is still palatable enough, and if you want more value, you can always pair him with another batter.
There’s value to be had throughout that Cubs vs. Dodgers game, and I’d be freely targeting both sides in a game that could end up fielding a ton of runs.
MLB home run picks don’t always have to be about upside or catching lightning in a bottle. Sometimes we just need to lean into the numbers and the situation and make the best bet possible.
