Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction & Best Bets (Monday, January 12th, 2026)
It’s possible NFL fans could be witnessing Aaron Rodgers’ last game on Monday night. His Pittsburgh Steelers found some magic and punched their playoff ticket, but they will be 3-point underdogs at home when they host the Houston Texans.
Rodgers and Co. looked sharp in the second half of their wild win against the Baltimore Ravens last week, but a nasty Houston defense is a totally different animal. The Steelers do get star wide receiver DK Metcalf back following a two-game suspension, of course, potentially giving Pittsburgh a much-needed jolt.
Winning on the road isn’t easy, but everything points to the Texans finding a way to get it done this week. The game still has a tight line and could be decided late, though, so it’s one bettors should go over carefully before pulling the trigger on any wagers.
Need some help coming to a Texans vs. Steelers prediction? I’ll scan the latest odds and break down the key matchups on my way to my favorite picks for this Wild Card Weekend contest.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Monday, January 12th, 2026 | Kickoff at 7:15 pm (8:15 pm ET) at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA
- Team records entering the game:
- Houston Texans: 12-5
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7
- Odds (from DraftKings)
- Spread: Texans -3 (-102) | Steelers +3 (-118)
- Moneyline: Texans (-155) | Steelers (+130)
- Total: Over 38.5 (-105) | Under 38.5 (-115)
The Texans are 3-point road favorites at DraftKings, which tells you how the top online sportsbooks view the Steelers.
The game total is very low due to Houston’s suspect offense and scary defense. Both teams could struggle to score in this game, which will be played outside in the elements.
Storylines to Watch
Check out the key storylines for this Texans vs. Steelers Wild Card showdown:
- One Last Ride: This applies to head coach Mike Tomlin and starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Tomlin’s future has been discussed ad nauseam, while the 42-year-old Rodgers could opt for retirement. Both could be looking at their final game as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Return of DK: The Steelers scored 26 points in a must-win game sans DK, and now they get him back. They need all the help they can get in the face of a brutal matchup, and Metcalf’s size and game-breaking speed give them a shot.
- Menacing Defense: Pittsburgh is a 3-point dog at home thanks to a date with a truly menacing Texans defense. Houston is tough against the run and also fields one of the scariest pass-rushing duos in the entire league.
Team Profiles
Houston Texans
The Texans got off to a rough start in 2025, struggling immensely during a 0-3 start. Most teams would have caved and missed the playoffs, but the Texans were in each of those games, while two of the losses were to very good Rams and Jaguars teams.
Houston’s offense has been touch-and-go throughout the year, but they still have a big-play passing game and can fall back on one of the nastiest defenses in the entire league.
The formula for winning is there, but the Texans do have some offensive limitations and will be on the road and outdoors. Let’s focus on the positives, though. Here’s a quick look at where Houston has truly excelled this year:
- Max Protect: Houston has offensive issues, but CJ Stroud has taken care of the ball (8th lowest INT rate), and his offensive line has protected him well. The Texans own the 8th-best sack rate as an o-line (5%), helping to set up a passing game that can take shots down the field.
- Sack Attack: Houston can really get after the quarterback. They have two stud pass rushers in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, who combine to give them a strong 8% sack rate, good for 8th in the NFL.
- Stop the Run: The Texans are not good at running the ball, but they sure do know how to stop it. Houston allows just 4.0 yards per carry (7th) and ranks 4th overall against the run, while keeping running backs out of the endzone (8th fewest rushing scores allowed).
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were in quarterback purgatory ever since the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger, so they did the only sensible thing and brought in a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. That’ll save us, they thought.
It actually did, however, as the Steelers got off to a nice 4-1 start and battled some mid-season issues to finish 10-7 and win the AFC North. Pittsburgh has their flaws on both sides of the ball and needed a botched field goal by the Ravens to get here, but they won’t be apologizing to anyone anytime soon.
It’s been a season marred in Mike Tomlin firing rumors, while the pending retirement of Rodgers also looms large. That said, the Steelers are in the playoff race with everyone else, and they get a home game against another team that has their own flaws.
Pittsburgh won’t be favored, but they stand out in a few key areas that could give them a chance in this matchup. Here’s where they’ve thrived the most this season:
- Quick Release: Pittsburgh does not have a super explosive offense, but it’s a methodical one that can pick you apart if you’re not careful. Rodgers has been highly accurate (10th in accuracy) and on time, which has helped the Steelers rank 10th in interception rate and 11th in sack rate.
- Sack Attack: Houston doesn’t run the ball effectively, which could put added pressure on CJ Stroud to win down the field. Pittsburgh can get beat deep, but they can also win on the edge. TJ Watt leads a still ferocious pass rush that owns a 7.2% sack rate, giving them the 12th-best pass rush in football.
- RZ Maestros: The Steelers get it done in the red zone. Their defense bends, and their offense can take a while to get that far down the field, but they excel inside the 20s. The offense converts at a 58.8% rate in the red zone (11th), while the defense is even better, holding opponents to a 50.9% conversion rate (7th).
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Texans vs. Steelers matchups:
- Steelers’ passing game vs. Texans’ pass rush: Rodgers has gotten the ball out of his hands incredibly quickly this year. That keeps sacks and turnovers down, and could eliminate a massive edge Houston should have in this game.
- Texans passing game vs. Steelers passing game: It’s similar on the other side, as the Steelers give up 7.3 yards per pass (23rd). Zay Flowers got behind their aging secondary twice last week, so Nico Collins and co. must be licking their chops.
- Turnover Battle & RZ Execution: This game has a tight spread, and the home-field edge favors the Steelers. This puts turnovers and RZ execution into play even more than usual. Pittsburgh ranks 4th in turnover margin, but Houston ranks 2nd. The Steelers excel in the red zone, while Houston is awful (30th) on offense and just 16th on defense.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Texans vs. Steelers odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Texans | -3 (-102) | -155 | Over 38.5 (-105) |
Steelers | +3 (-118) | +130 | Under 38.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The Steelers are surprisingly getting a lot of attention from the betting public, garnering 54% of bets and 65% of the money when it comes to the spread. Houston is dominating bets on the moneyline (70%), while Pittsburgh is getting 68% of the money.
- Record History: These teams have only faced eight times before, with the Steelers holding a 5-3 series lead. Houston won the most recent game (30-6) in 2023, but the Steelers are 3-1 over the last four meetings.
- ATS Tidbits: Houston has been merely average (9-8) against the spread, going 4-4 ATS on the road and 4-5 ATS when favored. Pittsburgh (9-8) has an identical record against the spread, but they are 5-4 ATS as the underdog and 5-3 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Texans vs. Steelers
Pick 1: Texans ML (-155) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
There’s no reason to mess with the spread here. Houston has the better record, they have a slightly more explosive offense, and their defense is nasty. They’re going to win, and the -162 price is a bit of a steal, all things considered.
Risks/What to Watch
This game is still on the road and outside in the cold. The narratives are favoring the underdog Steelers, too, as some magic from Rodgers and Tomlin’s possible exit creates a unique environment.
Pick 2: Under 38.5 (-115) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This is one of those rare spots where a disgustingly low total is one we should want to hammer. Houston only allows 17.4 points per game on the year, while Pittsburgh has arguably the worst offense remaining in the NFL playoffs.
Risks/What to Watch
Bettors probably thought Pittsburgh would lie down last week, and they put up 26 points in a game that totaled 50 points. If Aaron Rodgers decides to turn back the clock, the Over could hit due to the low total.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Nico Collins Anytime TD (+150) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Houston rested stud wide receiver Nico Collins so he’d be fresh for this game. We saw last week how badly the Steelers can get burned down the field, so the big and explosive Collins feels like a terrific bet to follow suit.
Risks/What to Watch
Touchdown variance is still pretty unpredictable, as Jayden Higgins and Woody Marks could easily siphon Collins’ scoring upside.
Texans vs. Steelers odds continue to change as money flows in on the spread and total — track every line move, compare prices across books, and lock in the best betting value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Texans Dominate Steelers, Send Rodgers into Retirement.
I will be pulling for Aaron Rodgers to make me look silly, just because it’s good for the NFL when he’s dancing around and throwing touchdowns. But he had his moment last week.
Houston’s defense is going to make Rodgers long for retirement. They sniff out the run as well as anyone, and they get after the quarterback relentlessly. Pittsburgh simply is not good enough to combat both of those strengths.
Pittsburgh might be able to lean on experience and home-field advantage to keep it close for a while, while Houston’s own offensive issues should help keep the Under in play. However, bettors shouldn’t expect an explosive or high-scoring game, and if you’re betting the ML or spread, all wagers should end with the Texans.
Final Score Prediction: Houston Texans 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 9
