Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Top Picks (December 29th, 2025)
The Los Angeles Rams will be sizable favorites to down the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football to cap week 17 in the NFL.
Matthew Stafford has been on a tear as a leading MVP candidate, and he had his Rams in position to both claim the NFC West crown and the NFC’s #1 seed before the Bears blew a chance to beat the 49ers on Sunday night.
L.A. can no longer do either of those things, but they are at risk of sliding to the 6-seed if they don’t focus on beating the Falcons. The difference in opponents in the playoffs is pretty huge, so I expect the Rams to keep fighting and try to hold onto that 5th spot.
Atlanta has nothing to play for, but they technically could still finish in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South. It won’t actually lead to them winning the division, but after winning two in a row, the Dirty Birds will still try to play spoiler.
This is an interesting game due to those scenarios, so I can see why some people may want some help deciding how to bet on it. I’ll look at the latest odds and key matchups to highlight the top picks and close things out with my final Rams vs. Falcons prediction.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Monday, December 29th, 2025 | Kickoff at 7:20 pm (8:20 pm ET) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
- Team records entering the game:
- Los Angeles Rams: 11-4
- Atlanta Falcons: 6-9
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Rams -7 (-115) | Falcons +7 (-105)
- Moneyline: Rams (-395) | Falcons (+310)
- Total: Over 49.5 (-120) | Under 49.5 (+100)
The Rams come in as touchdown favorites even though they are on the road. It still makes sense, as Atlanta has just six wins and is down to their backup quarterback. The Rams also have more incentive to win this game.
The game total is fairly modest considering how good the Rams can be on offense. The Falcons could chip in at home and make the Over a sneaky play.
Storylines to Watch
There are some wild storylines heading into this one, and some could impact how you bet on the Rams vs. Falcons. Here are the big ones to consider:
- Spoiler: The Falcons have won their last two games and will finish the season trying to play spoiler and end on a high note. Given that they’re at home in this one, they could be motivated to put on a show in front of their fans and stage the upset.
- Seeding: The Rams should go full bore as they try to hold onto the 5th seed in the NFC. This game could be the difference between a tough matchup against a fellow NFC West foe or a date with a beatable Buccaneers or Panthers team.
- MVP Race: Matthew Stafford keeps adding to a magical season where he’s already tossed 40 touchdown passes. He can further distance himself from the next closest contender by adding another win to his team’s record and stacking more passing TDs.
Team Profiles
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have had an amazing season. The state of a crowded NFC is going to force them into a pretty weak seed, even though it’s very arguable they’re the best team in the entire league right now.
L.A. lost to the Seahawks on a two-point conversion in a highly controversial game last time out, but they’ve been very tough to beat all year long. That gut-wrenching loss was their second in their last four games, but they’ve lost to mostly good teams and don’t have a single loss by more than a touchdown on the season.
Stafford’s MVP pace has headlined a nasty offense that produces 30.5 points per game (#1) and is incredibly tough to stop. L.A. is not a one-man show, of course, so let’s take a quick look at some key areas this team has excelled in 2025:
- Pass Attack: Predictably so, Stafford leads the NFL’s 2nd-best passing game, but it’s also one that does not turn the ball over (lowest INT rate), doesn’t take sacks (2nd fewest), and burns you down the field (3rd in yards per pass).
- Ground Control: As great as the Rams are through the air, they do strive for some semblance of balance and know how to run the football. They average a strong 4.6 yards per clip (10th) and generate over 126 yards per game (7th) on the ground. Kyren Williams is the driving force near the goal-line, but the team has also unleashed the explosive Blake Corum down the stretch.
- Stop the Run: L.A.’s offense is their calling card, but they do have a top-10 scoring defense and a stellar defensive line that ranks 11th against the run. When they stop the run, they can make teams one-dimensional and force them into mistakes (5th in takeaways).
Atlanta Falcons
This was not how the Falcons thought their 2025 season would go. Then again, Michael Penix Jr. needed to develop, and Atlanta did get off to a solid enough 3-2 start.
Things started unraveling from that point on, however, as the Falcons lost a litany of close games and eventually saw Penix exit the season for good due to a knee injury.
Kirk Cousins reclaimed his starting job and has led the Falcons to a 3-2 mark over their last five games, but the season has long been lost, and Atlanta is looking to 2026.
That said, the Falcons have done some good things this year and will do all they can to upset the visiting Rams on Monday Night Football. Before I fill you in on just how likely that is, let’s see what the Falcons do well this season:
- Finish the Job: Atlanta doesn’t blow you away in any regard, and part of that is the inconsistency and lack of health under center. They do, however, finish scoring drives inside the 20. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are a big reason why, as the Falcons rank 14th in rushing touchdowns per game and 7th in RZ offense.
- Max Protect: Whether it has been Penix’s ability to move around or the offensive line needing to protect a bona fide statue (Cousins), Atlanta has kept their quarterback upright for much of the year. Their protection has allowed just a 4% sack rate (5th lowest), which has allowed their quarterbacks to collectively maintain a low 1.42% interception rate (6th).
- Sack Attack: Atlanta has flashed some stellar play on defense, but it largely stems from a nasty pass rush. They own a 9.8% sack rate (3rd), which gives a talented secondary time to catch up and make plays down the field. Naturally, the Falcons have graded out well (10th) against the pass on the season.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Rams vs. Falcons matchups:
- Atlanta’s pass rush vs. L.A.’s passing game: This might be the key to the game. The Rams throw at a 56% rate, but they are super productive and also protect Stafford extremely well. They’ll be tested against one of the league’s more aggressive and successful pass rushes, however.
- Red-Zone Battle: Both offenses have deadly weapons in the red zone. The Rams will be down key RZ scorer Davante Adams (doubtful), but they still tend to finish the job. Alternatively, they boast the 3rd-best red-zone defense and face a Falcons team that is good at scoring from close range.
- Drake London vs. L.A.’s secondary: This is a big one, as it could lead to a good amount of points and tilt the field. London was rusty in his first game back last week, but he could round into form in this spot, seeing as the Rams have been bad against the pass lately. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed the 6th most yards to wide receivers, along with 8 TDs.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Rams vs. Falcons odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Rams | -7.5 (-102) | -350 | Over 49.5 (-105) |
Falcons | +7.5 (-120) | +280 | Under 49.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: The public is all over the Rams in this one, with Los Angeles getting 95% of the bets and 94% of the money for the ML. For the spread, the bets are split (50%), while the Falcons are getting 61% of the money.
- Record History: The Rams and Falcons have played each other a staggering 81 times. L.A. holds a commanding 49-30-2 series lead and have won the last two meetings in 2022 and 2019.
- ATS Tidbits: L.A. has been very good against the spread (11-4) and are 5-2 ATS as the road favorite and 10-3 ATS as the favorite in general. Atlanta is 7-7-1 against the spread and are 1-1 ATS as a home underdog, 2-4 ATS at home overall, and 5-1-1 ATS as the underdog overall.
Best Bets for Falcons vs. Rams
Pick 1: Rams ATS -7.5 (-102) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Rams are the far more talented team, and they still have an incentive to win. With a much more dynamic offense and a stingier defense, they’re a really good bet to win and should manage to cover this spread.
Risks/What to Watch
This is still a road game, and the Falcons have proven to be pesky lately. Atlanta has some nice offensive weapons, so it wouldn’t be that crazy if they hung around just long enough to beat this 7-point spread.
Pick 2: Over 49.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Falcons have the offensive firepower to maybe keep this somewhat close, but I feel better about them contributing to the Over. There is a good amount of speed on turf in a dome in this game, making a 49.5 total feel a tad light.
Risks/What to Watch
The Rams could dominate and completely ice the Falcons, or they could get out to a lead and shock everyone by sitting key players. Maybe they just don’t care about the seeding stuff as much as it seems they should.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Puka Nacua Anytime TD Scorer (-165) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Provided he is out there, and the Rams are trying to win, Nacua feels like a lock to score a touchdown. There are several Puka prop bets to consider, but with Davante Adams still out, he is going to get targeted a ton in the red zone. He scored twice last week and has at least one touchdown in six games on the year.
Risks/What to Watch
Adams being out could be big, but it can also put the defense’s sole focus on Nacua. That, or touchdown variance simply isn’t in our favor. Puka is a stud, but keep in mind he does have eight other games in 2025 where he failed to hit paydirt.
Rams vs. Falcons odds are on the move as markets adjust through the week — track every line shift, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best betting value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Rams Maintain Pace for 5-Seed
You would think the Rams would consider taking it easy now that the NFC West title and #1 seed are both out of the picture. If they do that, though, they could risk sliding from the 5-seed to the 6-seed, and that’d make for a marked difference in opponent.
L.A. is going on the road no matter what, but I imagine they’d rather face the Buccaneers or Panthers. Naturally, they’ll be motivated to add to the win column, while the sheer talent gap and mismatches presented in this game will give them an added edge.
Los Angeles is a pretty easy pick to win, but their moneyline is grotesque. The point spread is fairly large, but the Falcons aren’t a team we should be afraid of. With the Rams still motivated, look for them to take care of business and protect their seeding.
With that said, Atlanta does have some nice offensive pieces. A mild shootout wouldn’t be crazy, so while I like L.A. to win by more than a touchdown, the Dirty Birds should chip in enough to get us to the Over – if only just barely.
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Rams 34, Atlanta Falcons 17
