Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State Prediction & Best Bets (December 29th, 2025)
College football bettors are tasked with figuring out the 2025 Birmingham Bowl, which features a team with a losing record. That’d be the Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-7), who enter Monday’s showdown with Georgia Southern as 7.5-point underdogs.
This rivalry has a surprising amount of hate, as these teams have gone back and forth throughout their 40-game series. Georgia Southern got the most recent win, and they’ll be looking for their third straight victory over App State – but their first on a neutral field.
Both teams have been fairly pedestrian on the year, but will be eager to close out the season with a big win and a trophy. Not sure who to back? Join me as I analyze the latest odds and key matchups en route to the best bets and a final Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-7)
- Date & Time: Monday, December 29th, with kickoff at 1:00 pm (2:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on ESPN
Team Record
- Georgia Southern is 6-6, 4-4 in the SBC.
- Appalachian State is 5-7, 2-6 in the SBC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State odds, per DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Georgia Southern | -8.5 (-110) | -325 | Over 59.5 (-110) |
Appalachian State | +8.5 (-110) | +260 | Under 59.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is a known rivalry, as these teams square off within the Sun Belt Conference. They’ve played each other 40 times in school history, with App State holding a narrow 21-18-1 advantage in the series.
It’s been all Georgia Southern lately, as they won 25-23 earlier this year and 29-20 when the two met in 2024. The games have been close lately; however, while App State trounced Georgia, Southern 55-27, as recently as 2023.
The venue is a neutral site, as every single meeting prior to the Birmingham Bowl has been at one of these teams’ home fields.
Why This Game Matters
This is a big rivalry game, but it’s also an unexpected bowl game. It’s a bit of a gift to App State in particular, but the winner gets the ultimate bragging rights and can cap the season on a high note and nab a trophy.
Georgia Southern can extend their winning streak in this series to three games, while this win would get them over .500 for the second year in a row and net them their first bowl game win since 2020.
Team Profiles
Georgia Southern Eagles
The Eagles aren’t as good as they were last year when they went 8-5 and finished second in the East in their conference, but they are still a .500 team that won four games in the Sun Belt Conference.
More importantly, they displayed serious offensive upside, dropping 40+ points in four different games and scoring 30+ in five. They weren’t the most consistent bunch, and they certainly had defensive issues, but they used a 4-2 run down the stretch to get them to 6-6 and put them in play for a bowl game.
Georgia Southern has some rough losses on their ledger, but a 38-35 shootout loss against Southern Miss is one bright spot, while defeats to USC, Fresno State, Arkansas State, and Old Dominion aren’t exactly shameful.
They look to be in position to stay hot in this series and get the win, but before we make that call, let’s see where they’ve excelled on the season:
- Pass Attack: While not necessarily elite compared to the top teams in college football, Georgia Southern can certainly sling it. Quarterback JC French heads a passing game that is top-50 in yards per game (248.2) and does a fantastic job of protecting the football (32nd best interception rate).
- Sustaining Drives: This is a pretty balanced attack overall, albeit one that isn’t elite at any one thing. That said, that balance plays into their ability to convert consistently on third downs. They own a solid 43% third-down rate through 12 games, good for 37th in the country.
- Smart Play: If you’re not amazing at any single aspect of football, you’d better make up for it by protecting the ball and limiting mistakes. That is precisely what the Eagles do, as they rank 15th in total giveaways per game and also only commit 5.2 penalties per game on offense (32nd).
Appalachian State Mountaineers
App State has played Georgia Southern closely lately, which immediately puts them in play to beat this 7.5-point spread and perhaps even stage the upset.
Still, this team is below .500 on the year, and they did not do a great job in the Sun Belt Conference. They got off to a nice 2-0 start, but they ran into a buzzsaw in a blowout loss to Southern Miss before getting wrecked by Boise State. They managed to bounce back with two nice wins, but then dropped five games in a row.
App State has lost some close games, with a 45-37 shootout loss to Coastal Carolina standing out, as well as a 24-21 defeat by the hands of Old Dominion. That 25-23 loss to Georgia Southern still stings, while their last game was a tough 30-29 loss to Arkansas State.
Much like Georgia Southern, most of their losses were pretty understandable. However, unlike the Eagles, the Mountaineers played Arkansas State and Old Dominion extremely well.
They have struggled to close out close games, but they still have a few things working in their favor. Let’s see what stands out the most for them:
- Finish the Job: App State puts up a respectable 25.8 points per game, but they truly excel inside the 20. Their offense scores 90% of the time in the red zone, giving them the 22nd-best RZ offense in all of college football.
- Light it Up: Much like their opponent, App State’s best way to attack is through the air. They know this, which is why they pass 57% of the time (10th highest pass rate). Fortunately, it isn’t empty volume, as they average over 259 yards per game through the air (30th).
- Stop the Run: Appalachian State’s run defense is far from elite, but it’s the strength of a weak defense. They only allow 4.3 yards per carry (63rd) and can contain the run to a certain degree.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State matchups:
- App State’s passing game vs. Georgia Southern’s pass defense: Both teams are at their best when succeeding through the air. However, given Appalachian State’s shaky interception rate, I think their matchup with the Eagles is more crucial to this game’s outcome.
- Georgia Southern’s rush offense vs. App State’s run defense: App State isn’t elite against the run, and OJ Arnold churned out 105 yards on the ground against them earlier this year. However, Georgia Southern is the more balanced offense, so when they do try to run the ball, the Mountaineers need to make sure they keep it in check.
- Turnover Battle & Mental Mistakes: On paper, Georgia Southern is the team that is easier to trust in terms of turnovers and penalties. They are more consistent in both regards, and when you look at the most recent meeting, it was App State’s AJ Swann who tossed a pick – the lone turnover in a two-point game.
Betting Insights & Trends
Georgia Southern has owned the series lately, winning the last two meetings and three of the last four.
The Eagles have been pretty pedestrian (6-5-1) against the spread, while they have gone 4-3-1 ATS within conference play. They’re 4-0 ATS when favored, however.
Appalachian State is even worse (5-7) against the spread, but they are 2-2 ATS as the underdog. They’re just 3-5 ATS in conference games, however.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State picks:
| Bet | Reasoning | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 59.5 (-110) | These defenses are absolutely terrible. Both teams are at their best when airing it out, too. I am expecting a shootout with both teams swinging for the fences. | 7/10 |
App State ATS +8.5 (-110) | Georgia Southern has owned App State lately, but it hasn’t been by much. They can’t stop them defensively, either, while the Mountaineers passed on them at will in the last meeting. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 59.5 (-110)
- Secondary Pick: App State ATS +8.5 (-110)
These teams only combined for 48 points the last time they met, but I think we get more scoring out of them with the heightened setting of a bowl game. The defenses both allow over 31 points per game, and both offenses put up over 25 points per game. We’re getting a firefight.
App State isn’t great, but they have a capable enough offense that has displayed a ceiling at times. More importantly, they’ve hung in there against Georgia Southern in recent meetings, and there’s nothing about this matchup that looks scary for them.
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State odds continue to shift as bettors track a volatile rivalry matchup — follow every line change, compare spreads and totals, and secure the best value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
Betting on college football is a volatile experience. Here’s why my Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State picks could miss the mark:
- Rivalry Setting: Rivalry games can be unpredictable and lead to lower-scoring games. The most recent game missed the mark, so it’s possible this one does, too.
- Inconsistency: App State kept the last game close, but the one before that was decided by nine points. They’ve also been blown out a few times, and their defense is trash. It’s not crazy to imagine Georgia Southern pulling away just enough to win by 8+.
- Third String: There is a certain level of risk for both of these bets with App State down to their third-string quarterback. Naturally, that could have the Mountaineers struggling to score points and keep pace with the Eagles.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Georgia Southern Eagles 41, Appalachian State Mountaineers 34
My main Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State prediction is that we get a ton of points and this game hits the Over with ease. The last two games didn’t do that, but these defenses are truly abysmal, and these teams can both put up big numbers through the air.
If that ends up being true, I like App State’s chances to beat a pretty thick 7.5-point spread. The two things I like the most here is the fact that App State kept it within two the last time they saw this team, but also that this game is on a neutral field.
I will admit that App State being down to their third-string QB is worrisome, but all of the same logic applies. Provided he doesn’t fully implode, he should be able to do enough to keep this game competitive.
There’s no true home-field edge, the Mountaineers almost won in this same spot earlier this year, and neither defense can effectively or consistently stop anyone. Look for a high-scoring shootout that sees the last team with the ball pull out the win.
