Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction & Top Bets (December 25, 2025)
The Detroit Lions are on life support as they prepare to face the rival Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day. This is one of three NFL Christmas Day games, but it’s arguably the best one when you consider what’s at stake and the divisional impact.
Minnesota has actually been in solid form, but they’ll be 7-point home underdogs due to second-year passer J.J. McCarthy already being ruled out. He suffered a hand injury last week and can’t go, so the Vikings could struggle to move the ball against a highly motivated Lions team.
Detroit’s offense is what we can trust the most in this spot. They nearly rallied to complete an insane comeback last week, but will hope to get off to a faster start in a game they absolutely need to win to keep their NFC playoff hopes alive.
Looking for a Lions vs. Vikings prediction to center your bets around? I’ll inspect the latest odds and key matchups and hand out my top picks, along with who I think wins this game.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date & Location: Thursday, December 25th, 2025 | Kickoff at 4:30 pm ET (Netflix) at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN
- Team records entering the game:
- Detroit Lions: 8-7
- Minnesota Vikings: 7-8
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Lions -7.5 (-102) | Vikings +7.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Lions (-370) | Vikings (+295)
- Total: Over 43.5 (-105) | Under 43.5 (-115)
Detroit is a touchdown favorite on the road, largely thanks to their desperation as they continue to fight for a playoff spot. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy could also miss this game with a hand injury, further boosting the Lions’ chances of winning.
This game total is quite light, but McCarthy’s absence plays into the current line.
Storylines to Watch
There are some wild storylines heading into this one, and some could impact how you bet on the Lions vs. Vikings. Here are the big ones to consider:
- Brosmer Starts: The Minnesota offense turns back to Max Brosmer, who has been less than stellar in relief of McCarthy.
- Stay Alive: Detroit is in rough shape now at 8-7, but they’re still alive in the NFC playoff race. They need help to get in, but this Thursday’s game is also a must-win.
- Rivalry Week: This game isn’t exactly what the schedule makers thought it’d be when they drew it up, but it’s still a tense NFC North clash. With Minnesota stealing a win in the first meeting, the Lions will be eager to dish out some payback.
Team Profiles
Detroit Lions
The Lions are a far cry from the amazing 15-2 run they enjoyed last year. That season saw them locking up the top seed and a first-round bye, and now they’re just hoping to have a shot at participating in the NFC playoffs.
Detroit got smoked by Green Bay back in week one, but they bounced back with a 52-point game against the Bears the very next week. They looked more like their old selves for a good stretch, winning their next three games to get off to a familiar 4-1 start.
Things started to unravel after that, as they have traded wins and losses every step of the way. This past week marked their first two-game skid of the season, and the Lions will have to hope it’s not a trend that continues into NFL Christmas Day.
Detroit has some warts on defense, but this is still a very dangerous offensive team. Here’s a look at where they’ve stood out the most on the year:
- Ground Control: Perhaps the Lions should run the ball more. They only run the ball at a 41% rate, but Jahmyr Gibbs leads an explosive attack that pops off for 4.8 yards per carry (5th) and can hit paydirt (3rd most rushing scores) with relative ease.
- Explosive Plays: Detroit can really run wild on the ground, but they’re just as explosive through the air. Jared Goff leads a dynamic passing attack that averages 7.9 yards per pass (5th), is highly accurate (5th), and turns volume into production, ranking 3rd in total passing.
- Pressure Up Front: The Lions don’t do much at an elite level on defense, but Aidan Hutchinson helps generate a 7.5% sack rate, giving the Lions the 10th-best pass rush in pro football.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have not enjoyed as much success as the Lions, and yet they have a very similar record and have even beaten their rivals already in 2025.
Still, Minnesota has had major ups and downs under center, but recent production suggests the future could be bright if J.J. McCarthy can stay healthy and continue his development.
The Vikings have had their moments in 2025. They started the year off at 1-0 and were 3-2 through the first five weeks, while they’ve been able to bounce back after a brutal four-game losing streak. Minnesota is currently riding a three-game winning streak and, even without McCarthy, will look to play spoiler as they attempt to finish the year on a high note.
Before we get to a Vikings vs. Lions prediction, here’s a quick look at where Minnesota has stood out the most on the season:
- Pound the Rock: Minnesota hasn’t been great at running the football, as teams can load the box against their inexperienced quarterback. When they’ve actually been able to run, though, they have been fairly productive (15th) on a per carry clip.
- Sack Attack: Minnesota’s strengths largely reside on the defensive side of the ball this year, as DC Brian Flores dials up exotic blitzes and has a strong pass rush thanks to a sick 8.9% sack rate (4th).
- No Entry: Minnesota is more than a pass rush, though, as they really buckle down and prevent teams from scoring inside the 20. As in, they’re the best in the league. The Vikings have a nasty 42% RZ rate, which ranks #1 in the NFL.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Lions vs. Vikings matchups:
- Detroit’s RZ offense vs. Minnesota’s RZ defense: The Lions are very good at finishing drives, as they come into this one with a 64% RZ conversion (6th). However, they have the worst matchup possible against Minnesota’s top-ranked RZ defense.
- Minnesota’s rush offense vs. Detroit’s run defense: The Lions give it up through the air more than they’d like, but they’re respectable on the ground. Detroit ranks 16th against the run, which is probably enough to keep a weak Vikings rush offense in check.
- Detroit’s passing game vs. Minnesota’s pass defense: The Lions want to pass at will, and they do it as well as anyone. However, the Vikings have a nasty pass rush and rank 10th in yards per pass and 3rd against the pass overall, giving DET a pretty poor matchup on paper.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Take a look at the latest Lions vs. Vikings odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Lions | -7.5 (-102) | -370 | Over 43.5 (-105) |
Vikings | +7.5 (-120) | +295 | Under 43.5 (-115) |
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: Everyone is all over the favored Lions, with 89% of the bets backing Detroit, and the Lions also getting 79% of the money.
- Record History: The Lions and Vikings will be facing each other for the 129th time. Minnesota has an 81-45-2 series lead and won the most recent meeting (27-24) this past November. Detroit is 5-1 over the last six meetings, however.
- ATS Tidbits: Detroit hasn’t been amazing (7-8) against the spread in 2025, but they are 6-4 ATS when favored. Minnesota has the same 7-8 record against the spread, but are just 2-5 ATS as the underdog and 2-4 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Lions vs. Vikings
Pick 1: Lions ATS -7.5 (-102) – 8/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Lions are healthier and have way more to play for. You could argue they got hosed in their last game, so you better believe they will calibrate and make sure the rival Vikings aren’t the team that puts the final nail in their playoff coffin.
Risks/What to Watch
This is still a tense road game against a bitter rival; one that beat them earlier this season. It’s not impossible for the Lions to lack faith that they can make the playoffs at this point, either.
Pick 2: Over 43.5 (-105) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Minnesota’s offense will admittedly be tough to trust with J.J. McCarthy out, but Detroit’s defense hasn’t been very good, and we know their offense can hang 40+ points all on their own.
Risks/What to Watch
NFC North battles can be lower-scoring, while Minnesota’s offense could be like pulling teeth in this one.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD Scorer (+115) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Sun God almost scored multiple times last week, and he’s a bit of a scoring machine on the year with 11 touchdowns. With the season hanging in the balance, I love him to step up in the clutch and get a score.
Risks/What to Watch
Touchdown variance is a hell of a drug when betting on the NFL. It’s entirely possible other Lions seize the day and punch one into the endzone, and St. Brown ends up being an innocent bystander.
Lions vs. Vikings odds continue to shift as bettors react to Christmas Day stakes — track every line change, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best value before kickoff at our top football betting sites.
Final Verdict: Lions Stay Alive, Down Vikings
My main Lions vs. Vikings prediction is that Detroit keeps their season alive with a win. However, betting on their -340 moneyline feels like a waste of time. I think we can comfortably target them to cover the spread, simply due to the magnitude of this game and Minnesota’s shaky quarterback situation.
I also trust the Lions to put on a show in this spot. Minnesota’s defense can be tough, but Detroit has so many weapons that they won’t be able to stifle them all. The Lions should generate 30+ points, and given their own defensive issues, Minnesota might be able to do just enough to help nudge this one to where we need it to go.
Additionally, the Sun God has been a huge part of Detroit’s offense all year. He didn’t score against Minnesota in the first meeting, but he still cooked them with nine grabs for almost 100 yards. I expect him to have another big game as he helps ensure Detroit lives to fight another day.
Final Score Prediction: Lions 34, Vikings 13
