Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction & Best Bets (December 20th, 2025)
One of the most underrated college football rivalries commences on Saturday, when the Tulane Green Wave battles the Ole Miss Rebels in the first round of the 2025 College Football Playoff.
As expected, the 6th-seeded Rebels enter this showdown as huge 17.5-point favorites, and they’ll be expected to dispatch a Tulane squad they’ve terrorized in the past.
Tulane, to their credit, had a fantastic year, and they come in red hot after winning their last five games. They will need to lean hard on a capable offense, but stopping the nation’s 12th-best offense won’t be easy.
So, does Tulane actually have a chance to keep this one competitive? Let’s look at the latest odds and key matchups to find out the best bets, as well as my Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction.
Game Basics & Context
- Matchup: Tulane Green Wave (11-2) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (11-1)
- Date & Time: Saturday, December 20th, with kickoff at 2:30 pm (3:30 pm ET)
- Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in University, MS
- How to Watch: The game will be broadcast on HBO Max, TNT, and truTV
Team Record
- Tulane is 11-2, 7-1 in the AAC.
- Ole Miss is 11-1, 7-1 in the SEC.
Betting Odds
Check out the latest Tulane vs. Ole Miss odds, per FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Tulane | +17.5 (-118) | +610 | Over 57.5 (-110) |
Ole Miss | -17.5 (-104) | -900 | Under 57.5 (-110) |
Rivalry & Venue Context
This is Tulane’s second-oldest football rivalry, as they’ve run into the Rebels 73 times in school history. It’s a series Ole Miss has dominated, of course, as they hold a 44-29 all-time edge and have won each of the last three meetings.
Ole Miss handed Tulane one of their two losses back in September in a 45-10 demolition. They also wrecked them 27-20 in 2023 and 61-21 in 2021. The other previous matchups aren’t nearly as relevant, but there is clearly history in this series.
This game will be played at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, which is home to Ole Miss. They have won each of the last seven meetings at home in this series and are undefeated at home this season.
Why This Game Matters
It’s do-or-die time. Tulane has a rare chance to shock the world and beat a team that has largely owned them. That’s probably as good as it gets for them, but a massive upset would, in theory, keep them in play to go on an unlikely run in the College Football Playoff.
Ole Miss is looking at the same stakes. However, they are massive home favorites, so there would be a certain level of shame associated with losing this game to an inferior rival.
The Rebels might not be regarded as a legit threat to run the table in the CFP, but let’s not forget their lone defeat was in a wild 43-35 shootout loss to Georgia.
Team Profiles
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane has a very strong 11-2 record on the heels of winning the AAC title. They beat down a superior offensive team in North Texas, knocking their star running back out of the game and stifling one of the most explosive offenses in college football.
Doing that to a team of Ole Miss’ caliber won’t be easy, especially when you consider they couldn’t stop the Rebels to save their lives in a 35-point drubbing earlier in the year.
Still, the Green Wave beat a decent Duke team by a touchdown and beat the Memphis Tigers by six. They do have the offensive firepower to potentially surprise and hang around in this one.
Here’s a quick look at what specifically gives them a chance in this matchup:
- Elite Balance: Tulane doesn’t excel in one area on offense, but they’re pretty balanced and are effective both on the ground and through the air. They enter this game ranked inside the top-51 in both areas.
- Opportunistic: Tulane doesn’t have an elite defense, but it’s one that is aggressive, physical, and opportunistic. It’s a big reason they won the AAC title game, as they force 1.8 turnovers per game – 15th best in the country.
- Nasty Up Front: The Green Wave are also quite good up front, as they generate a strong pass rush (33rd) and also stop the run. They can give up volume over time, but they are elite from a yards per carry perspective, allowing just 3.5 on the year (23rd).
Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels are undeniably the vastly superior team. They showed that by cruising past Tulane earlier this year, while none of the three most recent meetings were remotely close.
Ole Miss lost some key contributors with Jaxson Dart and Tre Harris leaving for the NFL this past offseason, but they reloaded and were as good as ever, putting up over 36 points per game.
More than just an elite offensive team, Ole Miss knows how to steamroll opponents and also squeak out tight games. They won shootouts with Kentucky and Arkansas, took down Oklahoma, and narrowly fell to the Bulldogs for their lone defeat.
Ole Miss comes in just as hot as their opponent, as they’ve rattled off five straight wins since falling to Georgia. Here’s a quick look at what they do well:
- Splash Plays: This is a very explosive offense. They obviously put up a lot of points, but they specifically burn teams through the air with 9.1 yards averaged per pass (9th best in the nation). That has helped them rank 5th in overall passing despite only passing 44% of the time.
- Pound the Rock: Ole Miss can also run the ball as well as anyone in the country. Kewan Lacy heads the country’s 24th-best running game, as he’s churned out 1,279 yards and 20 scores on the ground.
- Protect the Ball: The Rebels don’t have the strongest defense, but they dominate with a high-flying offense that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Their elite per-play production compounds with their ball security (22nd in giveaways), making them a tough offense to crack.
Key Matchup Angles
Consider the following key Tulane vs. Ole Miss matchups:
- Kewan Lacy vs. Tulane’s run defense: Lacy is accustomed to elite production, while Ole Miss desires to run the ball about 54% of the time. They should have the edge here, but Tulane has been quite good on a yards per carry basis and their physicality shouldn’t be ignored in this matchup.
- Ole Miss passing game vs. Tulane’s pass defense: Even if Lacy does get slowed down a bit, Ole Miss should be able to find success through the air. They have big play upside down the field, while the Green Wave are not elite (119th) against the pass.
- Turnover Battle: One of the biggest keys to this game has to be the turnover battle. Ole Miss is exceptional at limiting turnovers, while they’re facing a defense that is quite reliant on forcing them. Something has to break on Saturday.
Betting Insights & Trends
Tulane hasn’t been particularly good against the spread (6-6), but they are 2-1 ATS as the underdog and 2-2 ATS outside of the AAC.
I tend to trust Ole Miss against the spread a bit more. The Rebels are 7-5 against the spread and 5-3 ATS when favored at home.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
Check out my top Tulane vs. Ole Miss picks:
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 57.5 (-110) | I anticipate a lot of scoring in this game. Tulane puts up 29 ppg and Ole Miss scores 36+ ppg, while neither defense is elite in the scoring department. The first meeting totaled 55, but I think Tulane puts up a slightly better fight and contributes to the Over. | 8/10 |
Prop Play – Kewan Lacy 2+ TDs (-105) | Lacy has 20 scores on the year, and Ole Miss is projected to win by a lot at home. He scored twice in the previous meeting and has had multiple TDs in six different games in 2025. | 7/10 |
Ole Miss ATS -17.5 (-104) | Tulane is good, but they’re simply one or two tiers below the Rebels. Taking them down on the road is a tall order, and even keeping this one close feels like a reach. Ole Miss has been solid ATS, and they simply have too much firepower not to coast past Tulane. | 7/10 |
- Primary Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)
- Secondary Pick: Kewan Lacy 2+ Touchdowns (-105)
This game features two very good offensive teams. Ole Miss has a chance to stifle Tulane for the second time, but given the stakes at hand, I like the Green Wave to chip in a bit more. I think we get 60+ points in this one pretty comfortably.
Lacy is the guy that makes Ole Miss go on offense. He churns out a lot of yardage and is a key factor for them in the scoring department. He has insane -600 odds to score one touchdown, but I’ll go one further and bet on two. Normally, minus money for this bet would seem crazy, but not here.
Tulane vs. Ole Miss odds keep shifting as bettors react to CFP stakes — track every line move, compare spreads and totals, and lock in the best betting value before kickoff at the top football betting sites.
Risk Factors & What Could Go Wrong
College football bets don’t always work out. Here’s why my Tulane vs. Ole Miss picks could falter:
- No Show: This game could struggle to get to the Over if Tulane can’t do their part. Asking Ole Miss to score the bulk of 56.5 points is a mild reach. If the Green Wave don’t show up at least a little, the Over could miss.
- TD Variance: Lacy scores a lot, but it’s always possible he scores just one time or Ole Miss finds other guys to get them in the endzone.
- 2nd Clash: Tulane got smoked in the first meeting (and most meetings) but beating anyone twice in the same season is not easy. It’s always possible the Green Wave offer some spirited play and keep this tighter than expected.
Putting Our Pick on the Board: Here’s How It Plays Out
Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 43, Tulane 20
My main Ole Miss vs. Tulane prediction is that we get a lot of points and that this game hits the Over. Ole Miss could technically have a shot at doing that all on their own, but Tulane does have a capable offense. I think they work together to put up 60+ on Saturday.
Next, I love Kewan Lacy’s role and production, while Ole Miss turns to him a ton when they get close. With 20 scores on the year, I think he’s a good bet to add to the pile (twice).
Ultimately, this is the Rebels’ game to lose. They have an awesome opportunity to tune up for some tougher opponents and should easily handle an inferior rival at home.
